연방준비제도 지표 하락은 경제 약세 신호

### 경제 지표 하락으로 미국 서비스 부문의 어려움 예고
* 📉 8월에 여러 연방준비제도 지표가 크게 하락했으며, **필라델피아의 경우 2020년 중반 이후 최저치**를 기록하는 등 광범위한 경기 침체를 반영하고 있습니다.
* 🔍 채권 시장은 강세를 보이고 있으며, 특히 현대 디지털 경제의 핵심 분야를 포괄하는 **서비스 부문에서 실업률이 증가**하고 있음을 시사하고 있습니다.
* 💼 일자리의 약 **86%가 서비스업**에 속하며, 이는 잠재적인 서비스업 경기 하락의 선행 지표로서 **상품 경제 모니터링의 중요성**을 강조합니다.
* 📊 최근의 제조업 데이터는 이러한 경기 침체를 뒷받침하고 있으며, 다양한 소식통에 따르면 **글로벌 경기 둔화가 동조화**되고 있으며 이에 대응하여 **연방준비제도이사회가 여러 차례 금리를 인하**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📰 CNN은 미국인들이 실업률 상승을 예상하여 예산을 긴축하면서 **작년의 소비 호황과는 대조적으로 올여름 소비자 수요가 감소**했다고 보도했습니다.
* 📉 8월의 5개 지역 연준 조사 평균은 서비스 경제의 우려할 만한 하락세를 보였으며, **필라델피아의 조사 결과는 팬데믹이 시작된 이후 두 번째로 낮은 -25.1로 급락**했습니다.
* 👥 여러 지역에서 정규직 고용 지수가 크게 하락하고 많은 기업이 일자리 감축을 보고한 것에서 알 수 있듯이 **고용 상황이 악화**되고 있습니다.
* 📉 전반적으로 연준 설문조사, 제조업 데이터, 다양한 산업의 일화적 증거에서 나온 부정적인 지표가 수렴되면서 **미국 경제가 본격적인 경기 침체로 전환**하고 있음을 시사하고 있습니다.

서비스 경제가 급격히 위축되면서 실업과 경기 침체가 임박했다는 신호가 나타나고 있습니다.

several of the Federal Reserve Services indicators have absolutely tanked here in August, including Philadelphia's number, which plunged to its lowest level since the middle of 2020. Well, everyone is glued to Nvidia for a tomorrow world that can't possibly live up to the hype. Here in today's economy, we've got bulls running loose in the bond market, which increasingly confirms the unemployment coming from now the services sector too. And services aren't just restaurants and dentist offices; we're talking about spending on access to mobile networks and all kinds of content subscriptions, huge pieces of the 21st-century digital economy. About 86% of all jobs are classified as services jobs, though a lot of those do relate to the transportation management and sale of goods too. And that's why we watch the goods economy as a leading indicator for where the rest of services might end up. And according to all of the most recent data on manufacturing, including the feds, things have turned decisively lower here as well. So when we consider a wider variety of figures from

other sources. They are all backing up the same message, whether it is inside the US and services of production, or coming from outside the country and globally synchronized markets, at least those outside of invidious capture. They all say the same thing: it isn't that the FED is going to be cutting rates. The rate cuts won't help. Everything is pointing to why the FED will be cutting rates and not just once or twice in a gentle psycho. Lower rates are never a good sign, and even CNN of all media outlets agrees. They even picked up on the fact that this summer is not going well, and it's not going well in the services economy. They write, Consumer demands seem to have tapered off so far this summer, according to surveys of American businesses that sell any kind of service to make a profit, ranging from restaurants to dental clinics. That weakness is also evident in the latest spending figures, a far cry from last year's lucrative summertime spending spree when Americans shelled out for films and

high-profile concerts, and this summer they're doing well. They're battening down the hatches and hunkering down and tightening their belts because they can see the unemployment problem coming from a mile away, just as the FED is now confirming, as we heard from J Powell and Jackson Hole over the weekend. Unemployment, not consumer prices, and unemployment, that genie is already out of the bottle. And it starts with, well, it starts with manufacturing, but it's hitting the services economy already too. That's why, for example, in the treasury market, in the bond market, we continue to see, first of all, rates that are defying our September effect expectations. They've only backed up a few basis points from their low that they set earlier in August, and since then, it's been mostly downward rather than upward, so very little backing up in interest rates. At the same time, we keep seeing more and more bull steepening and decisive bull steepening signals on the treasury curve. The crucial 2-year 10-year spread is UN

inverting, and it's the same with other spreads as well, such as the middle part of the curve, the 5-year 10-year spread. That one has widened out to almost 20 basis points yet again there too. So, as far as the treasury curve is concerned, everything that we're hearing from the services economy, as well as from JPW and the Federal Reserve, it all adds up to the same thing that bull steepening does every time we go through this bull steepening, lower interest rates. Those are not good signs, so for the service economy in the US. We've got five Regional Fed surveys to choose from, and really what we do is we put all five of them together as an average to see what the regional surveys might add up as far as a national indication, and then we compare those to the other sources such as the ISM and S&P Global to see if there are any outliers or if they're all saying the same consistent message one after another after another. But with the five Regional Fed surveys, you usually have a mix of

monthly as well as Regional variation, but over time, despite the fact that we have different indicators in each region, despite the fact that we have statistical as well as these Regional variations over time, the FED Regional surveys, when you average them together, they correspond very closely with the other surveys, surveys on Services as well. So, we get a pretty solid signal from the FED Regional surveys once we put them all together, and what we've seen so far for the month of August is, as usual, there's a mix. There's a few of the services PMIs that look relatively decent and improving, and then in August, there's three of the five that look not improving, look increasingly bad, including Philadelphia's, which fell to its lowest since 2020. So, if we start out with New York, the New York Services survey, that actually improved for August, rising to a positive number 1.8 from a minus 4.5. And keep in mind, with the regional Fed surveys, the dividing line between

contraction and growth is zero, not 50, as it is for the say the ism or S&P Global. Chicago was the other one, didn't actually improve, like just fractionally, but basically stayed the same at minus 4.26. So you got New York and Chicago as the best of the bunch, and they weren't really all that good. And then comes all the bad ones, the other three regional fed surveys, starting with Philadelphia. The August 2024 non-manufacturing business Outlook survey for that region of the US economy, that was minus 25.1, which is the lowest, as I said, since March, April, and May of 2020. And really was the second worst in the series outside of the pandemic. Only September of 2011 had been lower at minus 41. So one of the lowest numbers in the series, although the series data only goes back to 2011. But still - 25.1. And that was down six points from what had been the lowest of the cycle, minus 19.1 in July. And it shows that, yeah.

maybe CNN was right for once, and they were on to something about the services economy, and it wasn't just, you know, the usual indicators. What we're seeing more and more from these services PMIs and survey data is employment, negative employment. Here's what Philadelphia said: the full-time employment index fell 10 points to -4.9, its second consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May of 2020. Most firms, 53%, reported no change, which is not unusual, while the share of firms reporting decreases in full-time employment, 28%, exceeded the share reporting increases of just 13%. The part-time employment index edged down from +4.0 to -0.5, and the average work week at least ticked up to +2.1 following a slight negative reading last month. So, we're getting more and stronger indications of negative employment conditions in Philadelphia services, but this is being replicated across more and more of these survey PMIs and survey results. Moving on to Richmond, Richmond, the fifth district.

survey of service sector activity. Their revenues index fell to minus 1, which had been plus 5 back in July. It had been back and forth between these negative and positive positions going back to earlier the earlier part of this year. The demand index from Richmond fell to minus 3 from plus 1 and had been zero, so that one is turning lower in the summertime as well. And most important of all, as I just mentioned with Philadelphia, the employees number of employees index for richm services minus 4 for the second consecutive month and the fifth of our regional fed surveys on Services comes from Texas. The Texas service sector Outlook survey, that one, the business activity index fell to - 7.7 from minus 0.1 in July, so that one is rolling over as well. Future business activity fell back to plus 3.3 from what had been a 2-year high in July. And the Texans, or at least the Dallas fed, likes to include lots of comments from survey respondents in the region, and they're usually a pretty decent mix of positive and negative, but

Over the last couple of months in manufacturing, especially here in Services, you see a lot more, well, like this one from the publishing industry, non-internet publishing industry. Our data supports the thesis that consumer spending is pairing back materially. We will start seeing significant negative impacts to our business if spending continues to decline at the current rate through the end of the year. We are very concerned that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to trim rates, not that that will matter, and that by the time any future cuts begin impacting the economy, which they don't, consumer spending will be at recession levels. And here's another one from data processing and hosting. Content costs continue to rise while pressure from consumers and prospects to decrease prices is continually increasing. So, you got lower revenues, costs that are going up, weak demand from customers, it leads to unemployment. Here's another one from rental and leasing. We are a large heavy equipment distributor in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. At the end of July, we were down

6.3% decline in this year versus last year has been consistently increasing throughout the year. We were only down 10% during the pandemic of 2020, and we averaged a 10.7% increase in sales per year over 65 years. So, this year's decline is unusual for us, and it is unsettling. People are out of money, and this one just simply said from the utilities industry, I feel that a recession is going to hit the US. But it's not just these anecdotes. When we compile and put together all of these Regional Fed surveys into a single average, what you see is contraction in the services economy, or at the very least, slowing down in the services economy, along with the rest of it through 2022 into 2023, then a bit of a respite earlier this year, which, as you know, seasonal upswing or something else before, as CNN put it, as I said at the beginning of this video, starting to fall and fall more sharply into the summertime. The average of the five Regional Fed

services PMIs for August came out to 9.25, which was down sharply from the US 4.63 in July. So, we have a renewed weakness in the service economy, except this time with increasing references and increasing indications relating to employment and jobs. More confirmation of everything else that we're seeing in terms of corporate warnings in the goods economy to the BLL steepening on the treasury curve. Even the US Services economy is falling right in line, and it isn't just the FED surveys. As I mentioned, the FED surveys, even though you have different measurements within those fed surveys, um, when you put those together and average them out, the average actually does correspond very strongly with other service sector indications and PMI, such as ISM and S&P Globals. We look at S&P Global, their numbers for the services sector are an outlier. They are not shared by any of the other data and indications that we have. They've been stuck around the 50s, around 55, middle 50s for the

last four or five months here, but that S&P Global continues to show a seasonal pattern in especially their service PMI. So, that one is likely more of a seasonal quirk in the data than it is any strength in the services economy. Because you look at the other data in addition to the regional fed surveys, you've got the ism's non-manufacturing index, which continues to be weak. Even though that number had increased back above 50 for the month of July, we'll get the August update from the ism next week. It had been as low as 48.8 in June, which was a shocking low, very consistent recession signal. U 53.8 the month before, and then 49.4, so below 52 of the last 4 months. And anything below 53 is really consistent with contraction and downturn. And so, we line up these surveys together, the FED Regional services pmis and the ism surveys. They're actually pretty well corresponding with one another with the

S&P Global numbers that had been consistent with those for some reason likely the seasonal quirk being the outlier here in 2024. And of course, all of this in the services sector numbers are matched and really following what's happening in manufacturing. So if we briefly go through and review the five regional Fed manufacturing indexes, and they're not the same regions, got we swapping out Kansas City for Chicago. But essentially, when you do the same thing, you take the five regional manufacturing PMIs, you put them together in an average, and they correspond pretty strongly and pretty consistently with other PMIs and data on the manufacturing sector. For the month of August, we had the Empire, which was slightly better but still negative. You had, which is New York. We had Kansas City, which improved from -3 to -3, so it's less negative. Even had the Dallas survey, which was its least negative, still highly negative, but its least negative since January 2023 at -9.7. That's how bad it's been in Texas.

part of the economy. On the other side of things, the Philly Fed's manufacturing survey actually plunged, so something's really wrong in Philadelphia on services as well as manufacturing. That one had been at plus 4 back in July, and the Philly Fed's manufacturing PMI had been positive really going back to February, which suggests some big-time weakness and big-time rolling over going on in Philadelphia on both sides of the economy. And then Richmond comes in the fifth of the regional Fed surveys at minus 19 for August, which was down only two points from the US 17 in July. But at minus 19, that's as low as April and May of 2020, or it's comparable to September 2008. So Richmond was deeply into contraction territory. Philadelphia rolled over pretty sharply, and the other ones didn't really make up for those getting worse. The average of the five regional Fed manufacturing PMIs for August was minus 8.68, which was slightly worse than the minus 8.4 in July, and you can see the trend here in the average is

going lower ever since around April. So, there had been a moderate uptick earlier in the year, likely related to over-ordering as companies panicked with the Red Sea being blocked off and therefore fearing not being able to have goods in time for the summer or fall or whatever else, making sure that they have stock, remembering what happened in 2021. So, there was a spillover across the goods economy, everybody producing and really pulling forward demand from the second half of the year into the early part of the year, and now we're seeing the manufacturing goods economy rolling back over at the worst possible time as we face more, not just unemployment and uncertainty, but unemployment itself. And we put the feds, the average of the FED Regional PMIs together with the national PMI and Manufacturing for S&P Global or the ISM. As it turns out, the FED surveys are the most optimistic of the bunch. Even S&Ps has fallen off pretty sharply here more recently, their flash reading for the month of

August 2024 was down at 48.0, and of course, the ISM for July was already at 46.8 and deeply negative. So, the manufacturing sector is declining, retrenching, falling off again as we head into the second half, with more and serious negatives showing up in the Fed surveys, as well as other surveys like the ISM for the services side of the economy, and a lot of them referencing now unemployment. It's just consistent with everything that we keep getting from every direction. The bull steepening that's happening in U.S. Treasuries, we continue to see that happening to the point that the 2-year Treasury rate is now almost uninverted with the 10-year. That's not just a warning sign; it's also a timing signal of everything we just talked about. Philadelphia Fed Services per CPMI plunges. Manufacturing is rolling over in all three categories, whether it be S&P, ISM, or the Fed Regional manufacturing surveys. So, with comments and surveys, all of them consistent with the market, we got

manufacturer clearly rolling over as the seasonal upswing. And it's all happening as unemployment. Businesses are making decisions about their workforce. So if the US economy and the rest of the world is indeed being converted from a half recession that it's been in since last fall into a full-blown one, this is just what it would look, feel, and even sound like. How about the rest of the world? Well, over in Europe and Germany, they're complaining about what's going on here in the United States. Talked about what's happening over in Germany and Europe in the video link below. As always, thank you very much for joining me. Huge thank you to your university members and subscribers. And until next time, take care.

New Data Shows the ENTIRE Service Economy Is Facing Collapse

Monetary science reborn. Rediscovering the principles of currency. Putting central banks where they belong. Welcome to Eurodollar University, your place for all things modern money and monetary science. The YouTube channel for Jeff Snider, from here you can begin to investigate all the ways in which the global monetary system impacts you: economy, politics, investments and more.

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연방준비제도 서비스 지표 하락

8월 필라델피아의 연방준비제도 서비스업 지표가 크게 하락하며 2020년 이후 최저치를 기록했습니다.

전체 일자리의 86%를 차지하는 서비스 부문은 소비자 수요와 지출이 둔화되고 있으며, 이는 잠재적인 실업으로 이어지고 있습니다.

채권 시장은 강세 신호를 보이고 있으며, 이는 금리 인하가 다가오는 실업 문제를 해결하는 데 효과적이지 않을 수 있음을 시사합니다.

지역 연준 조사가 미국 서비스 경제에 미치는 영향

국채 수익률 곡선이 금리 하락과 함께 가파르게 상승하고 있으며, 이는 미국 서비스 경제에 좋은 신호가 아닙니다.

5개 지역 연준의 설문조사를 평균하면 확실한 신호를 제공하며 다른 서비스 관련 설문조사와 거의 일치합니다.

8월의 경우 뉴욕은 개선세를 보인 반면 필라델피아는 2020년 이후 최저치를 기록해 서비스 부문에 대한 전망이 엇갈리고 어려운 것으로 나타났습니다.

서비스 경제의 마이너스 고용 동향

필라델피아의 풀타임 고용 지수가 -4.

9로 떨어지고 리치몬드의 수익 지수가 -1로 떨어지는 등 서비스 부문은 부정적인 고용 동향을 보이고 있습니다.

텍사스 역시 기업 활동이 감소하고 있으며, 향후 활동 전망도 마이너스로 돌아섰습니다.

다양한 산업 분야의 설문조사 응답자들은 소비자 지출 감소와 비용 상승으로 인한 잠재적 실업과 비즈니스에 대한 부정적인 영향에 대해 우려를 표명하고 있습니다.

비정상적인 매출 감소와 서비스 경제 약화

3%의 매출 감소는 이례적인 일입니다.

지역 연준 조사에 따르면 8월 평균 구매관리자지수(PMI)가 급격히 하락하는 등 서비스 경제가 위축되고 둔화되고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.

S&P 글로벌 서비스 부문 데이터는 경제의 강세보다는 계절적 패턴을 보여주는 이상치인 것으로 보이며, ISM 비제조업 지수와 같은 다른 지표도 약세와 위축을 시사하고 있습니다.

지역 연준 제조업 지수 및 그 영향

5개 지역 연준 제조업 지수는 일관된 추세를 보이고 있으며, 8월 평균은 마이너스 8.

68로 7월보다 약간 악화되었습니다.

필라델피아의 제조업 지수는 급격한 하락세를 보이며 서비스업과 제조업 모두에서 상당한 약세를 보였습니다.

전반적으로 제조업 경기가 침체되면서 실업률과 경제 불확실성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

제조업 부문의 쇠퇴와 경제 불확실성

제조업 부문은 각종 설문조사에서 부정적인 신호가 나오고 미국 국채 금리가 가파르게 상승하는 등 지속적인 하락세를 보이고 있습니다.

기업들이 인력 결정을 내릴 때 실업률이 주요 관심사가 되고 있습니다.

특히 유럽과 독일을 비롯한 글로벌 경제도 미국 경기 침체의 영향을 받고 있습니다.