다양한 콘텐츠 및 주식 분석을 위한 캐시 메이커의 계획

### 반도체 섹터 중소형주 분석
* 📉 현재 반도체 업종 중소형주는 **공급 집중, 삼성전자 불확실성, 실적 우려, 금통법 불확실성** 등 4가지 주요 이슈로 인해 실적이 부진한 상황입니다.
* 🔢 **삼성전자와 SK하이닉스가 공급을 장악**하고 있어 소규모 기업으로의 낙수효과가 제한적입니다. 그러나 과거 추세를 볼 때 결국에는 **소규모 기업들도 이 부문의 성장에 따른 혜택**을 받게 될 것이므로 이러한 상황은 시간이 지남에 따라 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📊 삼성전자 실적에 대한 불확실성이 주요 요인이었지만, **최근 긍정적인 실적 발표**로 이러한 우려가 완화될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 💼 2분기 실적에 대한 우려가 존재하지만 **가동률 증가와 원자재 가격 상승**으로 인해 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 💰 금거래법 시행은 **개인 투자자와 전반적인 시장 심리에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중대한 불확실성**입니다.
* 📈 현재의 어려움에도 불구하고 **3분기에는 장비 주문이 증가**할 것으로 예상되는 등 업계 전반의 회복에 대한 낙관적인 전망이 나오고 있습니다.
* 🔮 업종 회복을 위한 추천 종목으로는 **에이치피에스비, 한미약품, 큐앤씨, 덕산하이메탈, 리노공업** 등이 있습니다.
* 🎥 영상은 향후 업데이트와 분석을 위해 캐시 메이커 채널을 구독해 달라는 당부로 마무리되며, **반도체 섹터의 중소형주 반등 가능성**을 강조합니다.

캐시 메이커는 콘텐츠 품질을 개선하고 구독자에게 다양한 기획 콘텐츠를 제공하기 위해 동영상 제작비를 늘릴 계획입니다.

Hello, this is Hyejin Kim, the consistent host of Cash Maker. Our documents. Well, it's been a while since we filmed a video. It seems like it's been about 10 days since the last one. Yes, that's right. We haven't been able to do live broadcasts for a long time while enjoying our long summer vacation. We haven't been able to upload many videos either, and it seems like many of you have been waiting. Yes, so starting today, we will work hard again and do our best. Next, we will soon upload content related to overseas stock trading that many of you have been waiting for. Besides that, we have many other things planned, so please continue to show lots of love for the Cash Maker channel. We have a lot of diverse content planned that both our existing subscribers and new subscribers will enjoy.

I want to have a lot of meetings recently because I plan to spend a lot of money. So, I will spend a lot of money on video production to improve the video quality a bit. I want to try various content creation and, of course, the videos that are uploaded daily will continue as they are now. However, I am thinking of creating a lot more planned content from now on. So, please continue to show a lot of love and support in the future, and please click on the subscribe and like buttons. Well then, shall we start right away with the content prepared by the CEO today? It's been a while, what are we going to do? Many individual investors are feeling a bit disappointed, especially considering the current situation. Today, based on Cha Young-il's perspective, looking at the flow of the New York Stock Exchange, it was very good. Recently, it feels like there is too much relative deprivation.

Of course, small and medium-sized stocks are not doing well in the New York stock market either. The Russell 2000 is not doing well, and many big tech companies are leading the way, but in New York, even within small and medium-sized stocks, the semiconductor sector is doing well. For example, it's doing well. Strangely, in our case, except for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, small and medium-sized semiconductor companies are not doing well. In the case of our company, looking at the trend of the New York Stock Exchange, it was very good, and then, in terms of the semiconductor sector, the trend was good. Even in the early part of the market, it seemed to be rising a bit, but now, in the middle of the market, it is falling again. Many people are worried that the increase was too high, thinking, Should I just sell these small and medium-sized stocks? Should I hold on to them? Could this lead to concerns about the secondary battery sector?

I feel like there might be some concerns. So, in this session, I will analyze why the heads of small and medium-sized enterprises seem a bit weak these days and when they might leave their positions. I think many of you are curious about this. Firstly, the main reason why small and medium-sized enterprises are not doing well these days. I believe there are roughly four main issues. Firstly, there is a concentration of demand. Secondly, there is uncertainty about Samsung Electronics. Thirdly, there is uncertainty about performance. Lastly, there is uncertainty about the financial investment system. Even though there are already four good issues, should they leave or not? Currently, there are already four bad issues. So, it's not an easy situation. I will explain each of these and see if they can be resolved or not.

First of all, let's talk about the first issue of supply concentration. Currently, there is a concentration of supply in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the semiconductor sector. It is understood that the semiconductor sector is doing well, but the fact that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix almost monopolize the supply is preventing the trickle-down effect of the supply from happening. However, this situation is becoming more prominent. So far, Samsung Electronics' uncertainty is somewhat connected to this. Foreign investors and institutional investors were not very confident in Samsung Electronics. Therefore, most foreign investors who bought Samsung Electronics did not do so based on expectations for Samsung Electronics but rather mechanically entered index funds.

Those funds that came in because they liked Samsung Electronics itself or liked the semiconductor sector itself didn't actively buy Samsung Electronics. They were worried that although the semiconductor sector is good, Samsung Electronics might not benefit from it. Until not long ago, there were talks about Samsung Electronics just producing HBM3, it was just a media play, showing off, and it wasn't even sellable. They were just producing it in large quantities, planning to dispose of it all later, which was causing concerns that there might be a shock. This was a story that was circulating until about 2 weeks before the preliminary earnings announcement. Even foreign investors or institutions were not actively buying Samsung Electronics, and sector funds were not buying either. But now, with the release of the preliminary earnings, they have done that, as expected.

So, what I talked about during the open room or live fortunately turned out to be correct. If it hadn't been right, I would have worried about the substance. I confidently expressed myself, so if you look at the preliminary performance announcement, you will understand. I was confident during the live broadcast, and then I did well in the open chat room. Fortunately, the scenario I expected unfolded. So, Samsung Electronics' performance was very good. Ultimately, concerns about the legacy-related aspects have been resolved, and as for the part related to HBM 3, although more details may come out in the conference call, ultimately, when selling, of course, it didn't sell much to NVIDIA, but it sold a lot to AMD or to China, so there were no major issues in that area. Confirmation was made, so Samsung Electronics...

I think the uncertainty about the aquarium will be resolved. So, as I mentioned earlier, the supply that was originally a bit retroactive for Samsung Electronics sector funds is being caught up late. Of course, even now, many foreigners are buying Samsung Electronics, considering the weight of Samsung Electronics in the entire semiconductor sector. However, compared to the weight that Samsung Electronics holds within the sector, foreigners still have a relatively small stake. For example, recently, whether it's TSMC or Micron, these stocks have been rising significantly compared to Samsung Electronics' weight within the sector. Therefore, there is clearly less remaining within the sector. As a result, due to the uncertainty about Samsung Electronics' performance, they have held back on investing, but now that the uncertainty has been resolved, they need to invest quickly, so they need to think about something else now.

There is no Samsung Electronics SK Hynix land at first, so the overflow effect of supply is exceeding now. Therefore, small and medium-sized enterprises are not doing well. When the supply is not coming in, positive material effects have come out. However, you should think like this. But I think time will solve this because until when will you keep buying Samsung and SK Hynix? Historically, it has always been like this. Whenever there is a semiconductor big cycle, in the beginning, the ID companies go first, and then there is a time gap before the small and medium-sized enterprises go. This has never been an exceptional case. Small and medium-sized enterprises went first, and then IDMs went. There has never been a case where IDMs went first and then small and medium-sized enterprises followed. This is commonly referred to as Samsung Electronics in IDM.

SK Hynix, the leader, has never not followed Samsung Electronics. Ultimately, you should consider that they eventually followed. I believe that in this cycle, with a sufficient time lag, the semiconductor sector will also follow the small and medium-sized businesses. Next, regarding the uncertainty of Samsung Electronics I mentioned earlier, there is uncertainty about Samsung Electronics. Of course, major domestic small and medium-sized businesses in Korea do not only trade Samsung Electronics. They trade Micron and others as well, but nevertheless, because Samsung Electronics has such a large share within the sector, stocks related to Samsung Electronics did not perform well. Some stocks that did perform well were specialized in hbn. However, as I mentioned earlier, this uncertainty is likely to be resolved. Some people are talking like this. You may still think that Samsung Electronics has not received a video call yet, but on the contrary, this time Samsung Electronics' performance.

Even if you look at the presentation, you can understand that they achieved 10 trillion won without Nvidia. If we add MBD here, there is a high possibility of achieving 15 trillion won in quarterly operating profit again in the current favorable environment. If that happens, I believe there is also a high possibility of a trickle-down effect towards Samsung Electronics' small and medium-sized suppliers. Anyway, if you see it as uncertainty being resolved now, and then there is uncertainty about performance. This uncertainty can vary within the sector. For example, in the first quarter, there were high expectations for semiconductor performance, but when it actually came out, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were slightly disappointed. And other small and medium-sized companies, except for a few stocks, were mostly disappointed. So, the performance was not really...

I think it's a lingering thought, so there are concerns about the second-quarter performance. Just as we had expectations for the first quarter, it wasn't as refreshing as we had hoped. Therefore, there are worries that the second-quarter performance may not be good. Consequently, although it's not actively coming in, I don't think this year's performance will be great. Why do I say that? First of all, the anticipation that had risen as a base has disappeared due to the first-quarter performance season. It's been about three to four months since then. Of course, there are stocks that haven't dropped. However, those that did not disappoint during the first-quarter performance season are doing well, while those that had disappointment in their performance have mostly dropped. So, what I'm saying is that what rose in anticipation for the first quarter has now turned into disappointment.

If it has not risen, the stock price itself has not increased, but there is a high possibility that the performance will improve from the second quarter. Because from the second half of last year to the first quarter of this year, it was the IDM time. As you can see here, the semiconductor sector's profits are increasing in order. Initially, IDM semiconductors bring in a lot of revenue because they start with manufacturing. As the inventory decreases when demand increases, the inventory decreases, and then the prices rise. Ultimately, all of this is driven by IDM because it's not about increasing operating rates or investing. As time passes, if there is confidence in improving inventory and demand, then the operating rate will increase. But as you all know, from the second quarter of this year, Samsung Electronics or SK

After Hynix, the utilization rate was increased up to Micron, so the utilization rate has been discussed from the second quarter to now, around 80% to 90%. So, the benefit at that time is that with the increased utilization rate, the shipment volume has increased. This means that more raw materials have been used. Then, there is a high possibility that the prices of raw materials will rise. Therefore, I think that during the second quarter earnings season, stocks related to raw materials and semiconductor-related stocks have a higher chance of showing earning surprises. If that's the case, when earning surprises come out in a state where the stock prices have already dropped significantly, there is a high possibility that they will be properly reflected. And then, I expect a rise in equipment stocks from the third quarter onwards. Because ultimately, equipment stocks need to catch up. So far, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been passive, mostly all tech.

The focus has been only on the migration process, especially now even within these small and medium-sized enterprises, only a few specialized items have risen. As everyone knows, like Hanmi Semiconductor, then Techwing, and then PSK Holdings, only stocks that can have significant profits have risen. The rest have all dropped, you know. But this part is now being resolved because Samsung Electronics, for example, has resumed construction projects that were temporarily halted, like the Pyeongtaek plant. SK Hynix also recently announced an investment of around 83 trillion won, so talks of expansion have emerged. This means that actual expansion has now begun, ultimately leading to expectations of new orders starting from the third quarter. Therefore, in terms of equipment suppliers, we are still observing that there is a possibility of a sufficient time gap for them to rise. That's why there is anticipation for orders to come in the third quarter. So, here, thirdly, there is uncertainty regarding performance.

This is certainly likely to be resolved now. Next, there is uncertainty related to the implementation of the Gold Trade Act. I think this is commonly referred to as the semiconductor shortage that limits supply, which I consider to be the most powerful negative factor. Ultimately, foreign investors are not relevant. In the end, for the KOSDAQ to rise, it is important for individuals to actively participate. As you know, of course, the implementation of the Gold Trade Act is not necessary now. It will be enforced from January next year, but that is not important. Why is it not important? Because once taxes start coming in, the money that was already invested here will not go out, but new money will not come in. That's what's important. It is crucial that new money does not come in. Therefore, the resolution of this uncertainty about the Gold Trade Act is important.

Until the issue is resolved, individuals' smartphones are not allowed in, so there is a significant gap in the supply. As mentioned earlier, in a situation where the period and environment for foreigners to actively buy small and medium-sized KOSDAQ stocks are not favorable, the flow of personal funds is blocked, which naturally is not good. Recently, even the opposition party has been discussing this issue. The public opinion regarding the enforcement of the capital market act is not favorable, especially with continuous coverage in the news. Therefore, as many are selling their stocks in Korea and moving to the United States, more individual investors are emerging. They are now becoming aware of these issues and are feeling pressured. Considering this, although I believe it is right to discard the enforcement, or rather improve and delay it, there is a high possibility that it will not be enforced next year. Of course, we must clearly signal this.

That's right. If we can't hold on until the end of the year, it's already over. But before that, I feel like I'm going to make a decision. Yes, considering those things, it seems like we are entering a phase where uncertainties are gradually being resolved. Therefore, as time passes, just like the concerns I had while being in charge of the small office, everything is being resolved. So, if you are still holding on when I leave the small office, it's appropriate to hold. And if by any chance, I say I have cash now, it's better to buy more when it drops. So, looking at which stocks can show some strength within the small office from now on, I think stocks like HPSB, Hanmi Pharmaceutical, QNC, DuckSan High Metal, and Reno Industry might gain some strength. When the small office rises again this time, it will be the second wave.

There will be a jade auction, and items that have been on the jade land will surely be of high quality. The jade that is currently on the land is seen as a commodity. However, today it is already moving a bit. Recently, I keep mentioning HPSP. However, the only downside of HPSP is that, as I emphasized in the live broadcast the other day, there is a selling issue. So, until it is sold, it may not easily trend upward. But since there are many vacant positions now, in my personal opinion, we might consider aiming for at least the previous high level. That's what I'm thinking. Next, as I mentioned earlier, in the case of Micron, the shipment volume is increasing. Eventually, there will be a lot more to inspect. When that happens, I believe Micron's performance will naturally improve.

One micron once raised expectations significantly, but when the lid was actually opened, the performance was not that great. That's why the bleeding volume did not increase. However, starting from the second quarter, the bleeding volume is said to increase. If that's the case, there is a high possibility that the performance will be significantly good. Another thing is that eventually the bleeding volume will increase. When wafer input increases, it means quartz usage increases. Naturally, if the price of the wafer and QNC increases, there is no choice but to have a loss. Furthermore, if a lot of semiconductors are produced, a large amount of solder balls will be used, which may lead to a shortage of tin metal. Also, in the case of non-memory semiconductor-related matters, like Reno Gong, isn't there a bit of a buzz around TSMC? Yes, it's been ongoing.

The semiconductor shipment volume continues to increase, indicating a favorable environment. Considering the demand for non-memory related products such as power devices is expected to keep rising, there might be concerns about the performance being affected in that area without the support of Airino. Therefore, I think it is worth paying attention to the stocks that may see a secondary rebound within the small and medium-sized enterprises this time. With that said, I will conclude today's video. If you enjoyed today's video, please subscribe and become a cash maker. If you choose us, we will make cash for you.

반도체 소부장의 시간이 곧 옵니다.!!! 지금 꼭 들고 가야할 종목은?

여러분들의 투자가 행복했으면 좋겠습니다
캐시메이커 소통방 https://open.kakao.com/o/gCG2XlLe
텔레그램 https://www.t.me/+2F_paParZANjZmRl


문서진의 캐시메이커

향후 콘텐츠 및 투자에 대한 캐시 메이커의 계획

캐시메이커는 동영상 제작비를 늘려 품질을 개선하고 더욱 다양한 콘텐츠를 제작할 계획입니다.

또한 CEO는 현재 뉴욕 증시 상황에 대해 이야기하며 특히 반도체 업종을 중심으로 한 중소형주의 실적에 대한 우려를 표명합니다.

CEO는 수요 집중, 대기업에 대한 불확실성, 금융 투자 시스템 등의 문제를 지적하며 이들 주식의 약세 원인을 분석합니다.

삼성전자의 반도체 공급 독점화

삼성전자와 SK하이닉스가 반도체 공급을 과점하고 있어 업종 내 낙수효과가 부족하다는 지적이 있었습니다.

외국인 및 기관 투자자들은 삼성전자에 대해 주저하는 모습을 보였으나, 삼성전자의 호실적 예비 발표로 신뢰도가 높아졌습니다.

삼성전자 실적에 대한 우려가 해소되면서 삼성전자에 대한 빠른 투자가 필요해졌습니다.

삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 공급 과잉이 업계 중소기업에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

삼성전자의 2분기 실적과 올해 전체 전망에 대한 우려와 함께 삼성전자의 실적을 둘러싼 불확실성이 커지고 있습니다.

삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 1분기 실적이 실망스러워 반도체 업종의 향후 실적에 대한 우려로 이어지고 있습니다.

반도체 산업에서 예상되는 트렌드

2분기는 수요 증가와 재고 증가로 반도체 업종 실적이 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

삼성전자, SK하이닉스 등 주요 기업의 가동률 상승으로 원재료 가격이 상승해 관련 종목의 어닝 서프라이즈 가능성이 높습니다.

3분기부터 주요 기업들이 건설 프로젝트를 재개하고 대규모 투자를 발표하면서 신규 수주 기대감으로 이어져 장비주 상승에 대한 기대감이 커지고 있습니다.

금거래법이 코스닥에 미치는 영향

금거래법 시행으로 불확실성이 커지고 공급이 제한되면서 특히 외국인 투자자 유입에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

이 법의 시행으로 인해 부정적인 여론이 형성되고 있으며 개인 투자자들이 한국 주식을 팔고 미국으로 이주하고 있습니다.

이 법을 둘러싼 지속적인 논의와 압력으로 인해 법 시행이 개선, 연기 또는 폐기 결정으로 이어질 수 있으며, 내년에는 시행되지 않을 가능성이 높습니다.

제이드, HPSP, 마이크론 및 반도체 주식에 대한 인사이트

옥 경매는 옥토에서 고품질의 아이템을 제공할 것으로 예상되지만, HPSP의 판매 이슈가 추세에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

마이크론의 실적은 출하량 증가에 따라 크게 개선될 것으로 예상됩니다.

특히 비메모리 관련 제품을 중심으로 반도체 출하량 증가는 우호적인 환경을 나타내며 중소형주 주가의 2차 반등 가능성도 있습니다.