What do you make of high-bandwidth
memory? The focus on US chipmakers to get into
that space? Yeah.

I mean, we've witnessed probably the largest
deployment of advanced semiconductor content ever in our history.
And the reason that's happened is

because we've advanced AI over the last
couple of years. And, you know, those advancements
continue. I mean, we've really laid the tracks the
last couple of years with retraining of all these models from OpenAI, from
Google with Gemini, Anthropic, and others.

And what's really interesting now is
we're actually making the transition from
from what we've seen with these models to reasoning.
And that's a really big deal because now we're going to start seeing the handoff
in a pretty material way from

pre-training and training to actually
inference and time-based inference. And so that should continue to be quite
good for accelerated computing. It's just the mix might get a little
different over time. But as it relates to, you know,
GPUs, custom ASICs from the hyperscalers,

high-bandwidth memory, optics, you know,
it should continue to be quite strong. Janus Henderson has some exposure to
Micron, but I'm not seeing it, for example, in your Global Technology
Fund. For example, I'm interested, therefore, more about what
you think about the shift that we've

Yeah, that's absolutely right.
And, you know, I actually think 2025 is going to be a really interesting year
because you can't put the investment into data centers that we put in over
the last couple of years unless you

start to monetize it.
And we're actually starting to see the breadcrumbs, particularly over the last
couple of quarters from a lot of companies.
And, you know, you hit it on the head. You know, the application software
ecosystem, whether that's publicly

traded vendors that are starting to
actually talk about specific contributions to their revenue models, or
a ton of, you know, startups, obviously, that are, you know, racing to,
you know, disrupt the existing vendors and take advantage of this multi-trillion
dollar opportunity.

And what's really interesting is,
you know, the software industry, you know, over the last 20 years, you know,
you grew to, you know, I don't know, six, seven hundred billion dollars in aggregate as it expanded
the software TAM.

But as you really start thinking about
what AI can do, this jump to reasoning and where we're going from here, it
brings not only the software TAM into play, but this, you know, larger,
you know, services TAM that can be attacked

by AI.
And that should be really good for the software ecosystem.
How are we going to start to see the wheat from the chaff here, though?
Throughout 2024, in many ways, all boats have risen until the second half,
and then we started to pick winners.

against losers. Are we going to see that continue? Look, we take a case study of Adobe just not managing to deliver when it comes to how much generative AI is going to get to their bottom line compared to Palantir, that has just exploded ever higher because of the opportunity.

Yeah, well, that's that's where we're at. And I mean, we've actually seen a narrowing in the semiconductor ecosystem in terms of the winners as we look at picks and shovels. And that's to be expected. Every time there's a big theme like

this, you get a rising tide; it lifts all boats, and then you get a narrowing of it. And, you know, and I think that's what we're going to see across, you know, the rest of the tech ecosystem, including

software. In '25, as you said, we'll separate the wheat from the chaff. The companies that are actually having meaningful contributions from AI, they're going to get higher multiples. Their growth is going to accelerate, and it's going to be good news. And then there are going to be companies

that are clearly struggling to get to the right side of time, as you mentioned, and Adobe is, you know, it's an interesting case study because it's been a heavily debated stock in the investment community for the last couple of years as investors have gone from Adobe being on the right side of time, as

it relates to AI, to potentially being on the wrong side of time. Talking of the wrong side of time, many are trying to guess what the right or wrong side of the next administration is going to be. This is going to affect, for example,

some internet names. I know that you focus in on Danny. And at the moment, we've got breaking news. The US Supreme Court is going to hear arguments over a TikTok divestment. We're going to dig into that in a moment.

But we do see regulatory implications for a lot of companies coming. How do you navigate that? Yeah, well, not too differently than how we've navigated it for the last handful of years.

And what I mean by that, we've had a very hostile backdrop for the last four years. So, is it going to get worse? It's probably hard to get worse. Is it going to get better? It might get a little bit better in certain areas, but I expect it to continue to be a difficult environment for large-cap tech.

You know, that diminishes the opportunity for them to do M&A. And then, it also, you know, we will continue to see aggressive postures from the DOJ, like we've seen with the Google case.

A Narrowing In Semiconductors

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AI의 발전이 미치는 영향, 특히 추론으로의 전환과 가속 컴퓨팅 및 다양한 하드웨어 구성 요소에 미치는 영향에 대해 논의합니다.

AI의 발전에 힘입어 첨단 반도체 콘텐츠가 대폭 배포되었습니다.

AI 모델에서 추론으로 전환하여 추론과 시간 기반 추론으로 전환합니다.

가속 컴퓨팅의 지속적인 성장이 예상되며, GPU, 맞춤형 ASIC, 고대역폭 메모리, 광학 등 하드웨어 구성 요소의 조합이 변화할 가능성이 있습니다.

고대역폭 메모리와 진화하는 가속 컴퓨팅 환경에서의 역할에 대해 집중하세요.

데이터 센터 투자의 수익화 및 AI 맥락에서 애플리케이션 소프트웨어 에코시스템의 부상.

최근 몇 년간 데이터센터 투자에 대한 수익 창출이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

기존 공급업체와 스타트업 모두 수익 모델에 기여하는 애플리케이션 소프트웨어 에코시스템의 성장.

AI는 소프트웨어 TAM뿐만 아니라 더 큰 서비스 TAM을 확장할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있습니다.

AI 환경에서의 기업 평가 및 규제 영향에 대한 평가

Adobe와 Palantir를 예로 들어 AI 분야에서 성공한 기업과 어려움을 겪고 있는 기업을 구분하는 방법에 대해 논의합니다.

모든 배를 띄운 초기 상승세에 이어 반도체 생태계의 승자가 좁혀지고 있습니다.

의미 있는 AI 기여를 한 기업은 더 높은 멀티플과 성장 가속화를 경험할 것으로 예상됩니다.

대형 기술에 대한 적대적인 배경과 틱톡 매각 사례를 중심으로 규제의 의미와 기업에 미치는 영향에 대해 알아보세요.

대형 기술에 대한 지속적인 어려움과 법무부의 공격적인 태도를 예상하며 규제 환경을 탐색합니다.