골드만 삭스, 주식 시장 조정 가능성 경고

골드만 삭스의 스콧 럽은 부진한 고용 보고서가 올 9월 주식 시장 조정을 촉발할 수 있다고 경고합니다.

### 골드만 삭스, 고용 데이터 발표로 주식 시장 조정 가능성 경고
* 📉 골드만 삭스는 이번 주 금요일에 발표될 고용 데이터에 따라 **9월에 주식 시장이 조정될 수 있다**는 경고를 발표했습니다.
* 🔍 골드만 삭스의 주식 전략 전문가인 스콧 럽은 최근의 정확한 예측을 근거로 들며 **노동 데이터 부진이 이러한 조정을 촉발**할 수 있다고 예측합니다.
* 📊 역사적으로 9월은 **S&P 500 지수에게 어려운 달**이었으며, 특히 **2주 동안은 거래가 부진**한 것으로 알려져 있습니다.
* 📅 **9월 13일경부터 시작될 것으로 예상되는 바이백 블랙아웃 기간**으로 인해 기업 수요가 감소하여 시장 상황이 더욱 악화될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 💼 다가오는 고용 보고서는 **7월의 114,000개에 비해 161,000개의 일자리가 증가**하고 실업률이 **4.3%에서 4.2%로 소폭 하락**할 것으로 예상되는 등 매우 중요한 것으로 간주됩니다.
* 🔔 노동 지표가 예상에 미치지 못하면 **현재 5.25%에서 5.5%로 설정된 연방준비제도의 금리 인하에 대한 접근 방식**이 바뀔 수 있습니다.
* 📉 최근 구인 보고서에서 일자리가 감소한 것으로 나타나면서 **고용 시장 냉각과 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 우려**가 높아지는 등 시장은 긴장하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 또한, **바이든 대통령이 일본제철의 US스틸 인수에 대한 결정**을 내릴 것으로 예상되는 등 중요한 기업 활동도 대선을 앞두고 주가에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

Hello, this is Kim Yong-gam, a correspondent for Maeil Business Newspaper in New York. Goldman Sachs has issued a warning regarding the stock market in September. Scott Rub, a stock strategy expert at Goldman Sachs, warned that the stock market may enter a correction phase depending on the employment data that will be released this Friday. This is based on a memo he wrote on Wednesday, local time. Scott Rub anticipates a correction in the stock market if the labor data is weak. His predictions have been quite accurate recently, and he has been known for providing precise forecasts about the market. In mid-June, when the market was reaching all-time highs, Scott Rub predicted a correction in mid-July. In fact, the market did experience a correction as it entered mid-July. Then, in mid-August, he changed his stance to a more optimistic outlook.

I saw it as a short opportunity to enter and buy, and afterward, the S&P 500 actually rose by about 4%. This individual accurately predicted the adjustments in July and the rebound in August. Therefore, Scott Rub's forecasts have recently been very accurate. First, the title of this Bloomberg article shown on the screen is Goldman Sachs' forecast released at the end of June. As you can see from the title, they were anticipating a market correction at that time. Through this memo, they stated that clients should consider reducing their exposure to stocks starting from July 4. They also noted that historically, August has shown weakness in U.S. stocks, and with the upcoming school contracts, liquidity would be reduced. Additionally, they projected that the correction could be more significant due to the U.S. presidential election. This forecast was made at the end of June, and they expected a correction before the election.

He predicted that the correction would begin on July 17. However, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on July 16 and actually entered a correction starting on the 17th. He is someone who can predict the market so accurately. When the correction began on July 17, people were thrown into confusion, wondering whether they should buy more or take a break, and there was uncertainty about the timing in the market analysis at that time. During this period, he mentioned a new outlook, and I had conveyed this through Wall Street AI news. He shouted, Not a buying opportunity! This meant that the situation at that time was not an opportunity for low-priced buying; he advised not to treat it as such. This was on July 17, and then July 17 became a turning point for returns.

It was pointed out at the time that this is a turning point. Referring to data from 1928, it was mentioned that August is typically a month when funds exit passive mutual funds. Additionally, the situation at that time was analyzed as one where all market positive news had already been reflected in the prices, and the index was on the verge of a correction as summer approached. In fact, based on that time, stock prices did decline. The S&P 500 continued to fall until August 7, then started to rebound. On August 11, Goldman Sachs released a memo from Scott Rub that stated there was a short opportunity to buy American stocks at the point of decline. It was noted that the severe mismatch between supply and demand in the stock market had ended in August.

On the 30th, it was projected that the stock market would show a strategically strong performance. Looking at the S&P 500 chart confirms that this prediction had a high degree of accuracy. As I mentioned earlier, at the end of June, a correction was anticipated starting from July 17. The first circle on this chart indicates that we accurately predicted the timing of this correction in mid-July. In the second circle, on July 17, when the actual correction began, a warning was issued that it was not a good opportunity for buying at low prices, and indeed, the market fell further. The third circle, dated August 11, referred to a brief buying opportunity, and the S&P 500 subsequently showed an increase of about 4%, demonstrating a rally. This individual has recently shown a high level of accuracy regarding the market, so there is keen interest in what forecast they will make today, specifically from Goldman Sachs' Lubka.

The forecast released today warns that if the employment data to be announced this Friday comes out weak, the stock market may enter a correction. It was pointed out that historically, the end of September marks the weakest two-week trading period of the year for the S&P 500. During this period, funds that adjust this trend have little room to increase their stock exposure, and companies are heading into a buyback blackout period, which further reduces market demand. The buyback blackout period refers to the time frame in which companies refrain from repurchasing their own shares based on their earnings announcements. This typically means a period starting about two weeks before the end of the third quarter and lasting until around 48 hours after the earnings announcement. This period generally begins on September 13, and according to Lube,

Customers of banks are already anticipating that stock prices will move negatively by the end of September. They expect that this risk-averse movement will begin on September 16. If the labor data released this Friday shows weakness, they warned that this market adjustment could gain momentum. The ruble is expected to decline due to the impact of the buyback blackout period, as the largest buyers in the U.S. stock market, which are corporations, will be absent, leading to a decrease in demand by about 35% during this period. This week is considered the peak period for companies to buy back their shares. Starting next week, corporate demand is expected to gradually diminish as we enter the buyback blackout period. Consequently, rule-based funds, such as commodity trading advisors, are showing movements toward a downturn, and this positioning has already raised alarms.

Signals are being sent, and it seems that pension funds are reducing stock risks ahead of the elections. Therefore, the employment report that will be released this Friday is extremely important. There are even forecasts suggesting that this employment report could become the most significant economic indicator. Currently, the Federal Reserve is focusing on the labor market amid a slowdown in inflation. In this context, the employment report will inevitably influence the Fed's judgment on how much to lower the benchmark interest rate. Thus, the August employment report, which will be announced on Friday, holds a very important position in monetary policy. Bank of America has reported that if new jobs in the non-farm sector increase by less than 50,000, it could change the Fed's existing scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut. This reflects concerns about a potential recession.

As it grows, there is a possibility of a bigger increase. Wall Street is anticipating that the employment report to be released on Friday will show an increase of 161,000 jobs. The employment report from July indicated an increase of 114,000, which confirmed a slowdown in the labor market due to an employment shock. In comparison, the current expectation is for a greater increase. Regarding the unemployment rate, it is expected to drop from 4.3% in July to 4.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. Additionally, the market believes that even if it doesn't happen this time, the Federal Reserve will implement at least one rate cut within the year. Currently, the Fed's policy rate stands at 5.25% to 5.5%. If there is a rate cut of 25 basis points, it would adjust to 5% to 5.25%. There are three meetings remaining this year, and if the rates are cut by 25 basis points in all three meetings, the rate would be between 4.5% and...

It could be 4.75%. As you can see, this is expected to happen. There will be three cuts of 25 basis points each. However, as shown on the screen, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch, the probability of the December benchmark interest rate being between 4% and 4.25% is 36%. As you can see here, there is a 36% probability. In this case, at least one of the three meetings left until the end of the year must result in a cut for this benchmark interest rate level to be possible. The probability for 3.75% to 4% is 11.2%. In this case, at least two of the remaining three meetings until the end of the year must not result in a cut to achieve this figure. Therefore, market participants are anticipating that approximately 47% expect at least one rate cut by the end of the year. Ahead of the employment report announcement, today's report on job openings in the U.S. for July shows a sluggish trend, adding to market tensions.

According to the July job turnover report released by the Labor Department, the seasonally adjusted number of job separations was recorded at 767,300. This represents a decrease of 237,000 compared to the previous month and is the lowest figure since January 2021. The market expectation was 810,000, which was not met. Additionally, layoffs increased from 1.56 million to 760,000. This indicates that companies are reducing hiring while layoffs are on the rise, confirming the cooling of the job market. As mentioned earlier, this increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve considering a rate cut, and there is a prevailing expectation that there will be at least one rate cut this year. Tomorrow, Thursday local time, the ADP private employment report will be released, and on Friday, the 6th, the U.S. August employment report will be published. Naturally, while the August employment report is the most important, the ADP private employment report is also significant.

The announcement of the U.S. Department of Labor's employment report is significant, as it has consistently played the role of a precursor to such announcements. Therefore, I will be able to provide detailed insights regarding the ADP private employment figures in tomorrow's broadcast. Now, let’s briefly review the market closing figures and a few major companies before wrapping up the broadcast. 

First, the New York Stock Exchange, which had shown a sharp decline the previous day, closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 38.04 points, or 0.09%, finishing at 4,974.7. The S&P 500 index fell by 8.86 points, or 0.16%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index saw a decline of 52 points. NVIDIA fell by 1.66% on this day, which is interpreted as being influenced by a report from Bloomberg.

According to reports, the U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to Nvidia regarding antitrust matters. However, Nvidia has stated that it has not received such a subpoena. Meanwhile, some tech stocks, including AMD and Tesla, have shown an upward trend today. Lastly, I would like to share news about US Steel among these major companies before concluding the broadcast. Reports indicate that President Joe Biden is expected to announce a decision to block the acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel on national security grounds. The New York Times cited three anonymous sources, stating that President Biden is preparing to make this decision. The Foreign Investment Review Committee has been investigating the potential risks associated with this acquisition for several months, and the Biden administration is expected to take action in November.

With the presidential election approaching, there are speculations that interventions related to this matter may occur. Previously, in December of last year, news emerged about Japan's Nippon Steel's attempt to acquire US Steel, which garnered significant attention. President Biden has stated that US Steel is a symbolic American steel company and must remain as such. Former President Trump has also expressed his intention to block the sale. Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris has emphasized that US Steel's symbolism must be preserved as an American company. In fact, lawmakers and workers from Ohio and Pennsylvania, where US Steel's plants are located, are opposing this deal. This transaction is considered a significant issue, especially in Pennsylvania, which is one of the key battlegrounds in the upcoming election.

Therefore, in this U.S. presidential election, just before the election, the stock price of U.S. Steel is fluctuating significantly according to the reactions from the political arena. That's all for the news I prepared today. Thank you for watching.

[Live] 선견지명 스콧 루브너의 약세 전망  |  김용갑의 월가 AI뉴스

월가에서 월급받는 부자되는 비법을 전수합니다!

매경 월가월부

주식 시장 조정에 대한 골드만삭스의 경고

골드만 삭스의 스콧 럽은 다가오는 고용 데이터에 따라 9월에 주식 시장이 조정될 가능성이 있다고 경고했습니다.

7월 중순의 조정과 8월 중순의 낙관적 전망 등 그의 최근 예측은 정확했습니다.

6월 말에는 미국 대통령 선거 전에 상당한 조정이 있을 것으로 예상하면서 고객들에게 주식 노출을 줄이라고 조언했습니다.

8월은 주가가 하락하고 S&P 500 지수가 8월 7일까지 하락하는 등 패시브 뮤추얼 펀드의 자금 이탈에 중요한 달입니다.

8월 11일 골드만삭스의 메모는 미국 주식을 매수할 수 있는 짧은 기회를 강조했고, 주식 시장의 심각한 수급 불일치는 그 달에 끝났습니다.

향후 전망은 금요일 고용지표가 부진할 경우 조정 가능성을 경고하고 있으며, 9월 말에는 기업 환매 중단 기간으로 인해 S&P 500의 거래 실적이 역사적으로 저조할 것으로 예상됩니다.

예상되는 시장 조정과 고용 보고서의 중요성

은행 고객들은 9월 16일부터 주가가 마이너스 움직임을 보일 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 노동 지표가 약세를 보일 경우 모멘텀이 증가할 가능성이 있습니다.

루블화는 미국 기업의 바이백 블랙아웃 기간 동안 수요가 35% 감소하여 하락할 것으로 예상됩니다.

다가오는 고용 보고서는 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 결정에 매우 중요하며, 월가에서는 161,000개의 일자리 증가와 4.

2%의 실업률 하락을 예상하고 있습니다.

예상되는 금리 인하 및 고용 시장 동향

미연준은 12월 기준금리가 4%에서 4.

25% 사이가 될 확률이 36%이며, 각각 25bp씩 3차례 인하할 것으로 예상됩니다.

7월 미국 일자리 보고서에 따르면 일자리 분리 건수는 감소하고 해고 건수는 증가하여 고용 시장이 냉각되고 금리 인하 가능성이 높아진 것으로 나타났습니다.

뉴욕 증시는 다우존스 산업평균지수는 소폭 상승한 반면 블룸버그의 보도로 인해 엔비디아의 주가는 1.

66% 하락하며 혼조세로 마감했습니다.

엔비디아 소환장 및 미국 철강 인수 차단

미국 법무부가 반독점 문제로 엔비디아에 소환장을 발부한 것으로 알려졌지만, 엔비디아는 아직 소환장을 받지 못했다고 주장하고 있습니다.

AMD와 테슬라를 포함한 기술주들이 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

바이든 대통령은 다가오는 대선의 영향을 받아 국가 안보를 이유로 신일본제철의 미국 철강 인수를 차단하는 결정을 발표할 것으로 예상됩니다.