사우디 아람코: 과거의 영광과 현재의 도전

한때 가장 수익성이 높았던 사우디 아람코는 석유 수요 감소와 내부 경제 문제로 인해 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

### 사우디 아람코: 세계에서 가장 수익성이 높은 기업에서 위기까지: 사우디 아람코
* 💰 사우디 아람코는 **2016년부터 2022년까지 7,000억 달러 이상의 수익**을 올린 세계에서 가장 수익성이 높은 기업으로, **2022년에만 1,590억 달러의 수익**을 올렸습니다.
* 🛢 1933년 이븐 사우드가 캘리포니아의 스탠다드 오일에 60년간의 광구를 매각하면서 설립된 **사우디 아람코**는 신중하고 합의된 국유화를 통해 **세계 최대의 석유 회사**로 성장했습니다.
* 🌍 아람코가 직면한 첫 번째 구조적 문제는 **전 세계적으로 화석 연료에서 탈피하는 추세**로, 국제에너지기구(IEA)는 **세계 석유 수요가 2029년에 정점에 달할 것**으로 전망하고 있습니다.
* 📉 두 번째 구조적 문제는 **비OPEC 산유량의 증가**로 인한 OPEC의 영향력 감소로 **OPEC 플러스가 유가를 통제하기 어렵다**는 점입니다.
* 🛢 ️ 더 시급한 문제는 사우디아라비아의 경제 다각화 노력으로 인해 **정부가 아람코의 수입을 다양한 프로젝트로 전환**하는 것입니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국이 전략 석유 비축유를 역순환 거래하는 것은 **OPEC 플러스와 아람코에도 영향**을 미쳤습니다.
* 💸 이러한 어려움으로 인해 아람코는 **주식을 매각**하고 **투자를 줄이며 최대 생산 능력을 늘리려는 계획을 포기**해야 했고, 이는 아람코의 어려움이 더욱 커질 수 있음을 시사합니다.

this video is brought to you by brilliant. Until recently, Saudi Aramco was undeniably the world's most profitable company, with a margin 10 times that of its competitors. Between 2016 and 2022, Aramco made over $700 billion in profits, more than any other company in the world. In 2022 alone, Aramco raked in $159 billion in profits, the single most profitable year ever reported by any company in history. However, while Aramco is still a corporate giant, a combination of international and domestic factors have put it under serious strain. So in this video, we're going to have a look at Aramco's glorious history and why the future doesn't look quite so rosy. So let's start with Saudi Aramco's origin story. Saudi Arabia, as we know it today, was founded in 1932 by Ibn Saud, the father of the King of Saudi Arabia, King Salman, and the grandfather of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Almost immediately after the Kingdom's

Inception. Western oil companies began vying for exploration licenses having discovered enormous amounts of oil in nearby countries like Iran, Iraq, and Libya. At this time, ibin saoud was seriously short of cash, largely because the Great Depression had reduced the number of Muslim pilgrims visiting Mecca, which was at the time Saudi Arabia's main source of income. Between 1927 and 1933, the number of fee-paying pilgrims fell by 80%, and the state budget fell from $1 million to barely $250,000. So in 1933, ibben so sold a 60-year concession to Standard Oil of California, known today as Chevron, for just $50,000. The agreement gave Chevron exclusive rights to seek, produce, refine, and market Saudi oil, and it turned out to be one of the best deals in corporate history. Saudi Arabia turned out to have more oil than basically any other country in the world, and Chevron made an absolute killing. The Saudi State didn't do too badly either. By 1939, a year after

the first discovery in Daran, the state budget had swelled to $2 million. And after a series of massive discoveries in the late 40s, Saudi revenues grew exponentially, going from $7 million in 1947 to $56 million in 1950, $110 million in 1951, and $25 million in 1952. However, in the '50s, the Saudis came under pressure to nationalize Chevron subsidiary, which had then been renamed the Arabian American Oil Co. or Aramco. Aramco had already agreed to split all profits 50/50 after ibin Saud threatened them with nationalization in 1950. But over the subsequent decade or so, a wave of Arab nationalism spread across the Middle East, led by Egypt's President Kamal Abdul Nasser. Nasser seized the Suez Canal from the British in 1956 and began calling on other Arab peoples to rise up against their pro-western monarchies and nationalize their domestic industries, which is exactly what happened in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and the Sudan. However, one of

the big reasons Saudi Aramco has been so successful is that the Al Saud family saw what happened when oil industries were abruptly nationalized and did something very different. In countries like Iran, Iraq, and Mexico, nationalization was done suddenly and aggressively, and Western managers were kicked out as soon as possible. This often meant that these new National oil companies ended up being terribly mismanaged. When the Saudis nationalized Aramco, however, it was done both cautiously and consensually. The Saudi State bought out Aramco over the course of s years, and Aramco maintained technical cooperation agreements with its former American owners until as late as 2010 to make sure the Americans passed on their expertise to the new generation of Saudi managers. A smooth transition ensured that Saudi Aramco was able to properly take advantage of the country's enormous oil reserves, and today it's by far and away the world's biggest oil company. So how on Earth could the world's most profitable company be in crisis? Well, while Aramco

isn't going bankrupt anytime soon. It's facing at least two structural problems and one more immediate issue. The first structural problem is the coming shift away from fossil fuels. While the world is clearly still using more fossil fuels than environmental campaigners would like, global oil demand has proved remarkably weak since the pandemic. In their Oil 2024 report published on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency forecast that global oil demand will peak in 2029, which should mean lower prices. Simultaneously, Saudi production costs will be going up as the cheapest, most accessible oil fields deplete. This will squeeze Aramco's profit margins well before Saudi Arabia runs out of oil. As former Oil Minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani once observed, The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones. This predicament is made more acute by the second structural issue: the decline of OPEC. For those of you who don't know, OPEC, which expanded to become OPEC Plus in 2016, is a Saudi-led cartel of oil-exporting states. In the past, OPEC

could basically force whatever price it wanted because the OPEC countries accounted for the vast majority of global oil production. However, the rise of non-OPEC production in countries like Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and especially the US means that OPEC plus today has less control over prices. This has been made especially apparent in the past year or so. The Saudis have been trying to push oil up to $100 a barrel, cutting their own production by 2 million barrels a day, but it's been remarkably ineffective, and oil prices have barely gone above $80 a barrel. Things have been made even more difficult for the Saudis by the fact that the US has started trading oil in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve counter-cyclically. For context, the US has an oil stockpile with millions of barrels stored in underground tanks in Louisiana and Texas. In the past, they've just let it sit there for emergencies, but Biden has started selling barrels when prices are high and then replenishing the reserve when they're low. This is actually pretty clever from the Biden team. It actively stabilizes global

prices, which is good for both the American economy and Biden's electoral prospects. The US government simultaneously makes a tidy profit. This has caused immense frustration within OPEC plus. Earlier this year, Angola quit the cartel after complaining that their production cuts weren't working. But the third, more pressing issue for Aramco relates to the wider Saudi economy. We've done a whole video on this over on TLDR Global, but the TLDR is that the Saudi government has been redirecting revenues from Saudi Aramco towards a variety of projects, all intended to reduce the country's economic dependence on oil. Unfortunately, these projects haven't been entirely successful, and the Saudis have responded by squeezing as much money as they can out of Aramco, selling shares, and reducing investment. This is why in January, Aramco quietly abandoned a long-standing plan to increase their maximum capacity from 12 to 13 million barrels a day. If Saudi Arabia's economic crisis continues, and recent GDP data doesn't bode well, Aramco's woes will

only escalate now understanding exactly what has or is going to happen here can be a little tricky requiring you to evaluate lots of information from different often partial sources. It would be sensible then to begin improving your critical thinking skills so that you can keep sharp and better understand what's going on. And well our sponsor brilliant.org can help you do just that. Brilliant is the online learning platform that's designed specifically to teach you everything from maths data analysis programming and AI from the ground up. You don't need a fancy degree or to have dedicated hundreds of hours to studying any of these all you need is a device with an internet connection and a few spare minutes a day. And with your spare few minutes you'll learn by actually doing with brilliant providing Hands-On lessons that let you play around with Concepts a method that has been shown to be six times more effective than just watching lectures. What makes this even better is this content is created by an award-winning team of teachers researchers and professionals from MIT Caltech Duke.

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Saudi Aramco’s Looming Crisis Explained

TLDR Business

사우디 아람코의 독보적인 수익성과 고군분투하는 미래

사우디 아람코는 2016년부터 2022년까지 7,000억 달러 이상의 수익을 올린 가장 수익성이 높은 회사였습니다.

하지만 영광스러운 역사에도 불구하고 국제적, 국내적 요인이 복합적으로 작용하면서 사우디 아람코는 심각한 압박을 받고 있습니다.

1933년 사우디아라비아는 캘리포니아의 스탠다드 오일에 60년 조광권을 단돈 5만 달러에 매각하여 셰브론에게 사우디 석유에 대한 독점권을 부여했고, 이는 기업 역사상 최고의 거래 중 하나로 기록되었습니다.

사우디 아람코의 부상과 석유 산업의 국유화

1940년대 말과 1950년대 초 사우디아라비아의 수익이 기하급수적으로 증가하면서 아라비아 아메리칸 오일 회사(아람코)를 국유화해야 한다는 압력이 커졌습니다.

사우디 아람코의 국유화는 역내 다른 국가들과는 달리 신중하고 합의된 방식으로 진행되어 석유 매장량을 순조롭게 전환하고 성공적으로 관리할 수 있었습니다.

세계에서 가장 수익성이 높은 회사지만 현재 사우디 아람코는 위기에 직면해 있습니다.

변화하는 석유 시장에서 아람코의 도전 과제

아람코는 파산에 직면해 있지는 않지만 구조적인 문제와 당면한 문제에 직면해 있습니다.

아람코는 글로벌 석유 수요 약세와 사우디의 생산 비용 증가로 인해 수익 마진이 낮아질 가능성이 높습니다.

또한 석유수출국기구(OPEC)의 유가 통제력 저하와 미국의 역순환 석유 거래로 인해 아람코가 시장에 큰 영향을 미치기 어려워지고 있습니다.

아람코와 사우디 경제가 직면한 과제

아람코는 OPEC 플러스 내의 불만과 미국 정부의 석유 정책의 영향 등 세 가지 주요 도전에 직면해 있습니다.

앙골라의 OPEC 카르텔 탈퇴도 중요한 문제이며, 아람코는 사우디의 경제 상황 악화와 정부의 수입 방향 전환으로 인해 더욱 큰 압박을 받고 있습니다.

사우디 경제 위기가 계속 확대됨에 따라 아람코는 주식을 매각하고 투자를 줄이며 생산 능력 확장 계획을 포기해야 했습니다.

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