반도체 시장 성장, 변화 및 주식 분석

파운드리의 실적에 따라 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 주가와 시장 심리에 영향을 미치는 변화가 결정될 것입니다.

### 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스 반도체 시장 역학 관계 탐색하기
* 🏭 삼성전자의 2분기 영업이익은 지난해 같은 기간 6천억 원 수준에서 크게 증가한 **8조 1천억 원**에 달할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📈 삼성전자는 2분기 실적 발표를 앞두고 있으며, **양호한 실적에도 불구하고 주가는 단기적으로 크게 반응하지 않을 수 있습니다.**
* 🧠 반도체 업계는 **메모리 칩 공급 부족**을 겪고 있으며, 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스는 모두 **NVIDIA의 중요한 공급업체**입니다.
* 💰 삼성전자 주가는 **HBM MBD가 성공적으로 납품될 경우 10만원을 돌파**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📉 반도체 기업의 성장률이 둔화되기 시작하면서 **잠재적 전환점**을 나타내는 징후에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.
* 💡 " 단순히 사상 최고가 경신에 집중하기보다는 **삼성전자 주가가 12만 원, 13만 원에 도달하는 꿈**을 꾸는 것이 더 중요할 수 있습니다.
* 💊 SK하이닉스는 2분기에 **약 15조8000억원의 영업적자**를 기록할 것으로 예상했지만 **실제 실적은 예상을 뛰어넘었습니다.**
* 📉 과거 SK하이닉스 주가가 **주가순자산비율(PBR) 밴드 상단을 돌파**했을 때는 매도 분위기가 강했습니다.
* 💻 NVIDIA는 계속해서 좋은 재무 성과를 내고 있지만, **주당 순이익의 깜짝 상승률은 점차 감소**하고 있습니다.
* 🔮 NVIDIA의 향후 주가를 평가할 때는 **경쟁 환경과 대체재의 존재**를 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.

Dreaming of 120,000 and 130,000 won, isn't it more important to envision such dreams? Although we are a dream, how much performance the foundry will deliver is crucial. Currently, the foundry business unit may be caught up in performance, but the stock price does not reflect it at all. Customers are leaving, and if that continues, they say they will chase after TSMC, but the gap keeps widening. Suddenly, there are parts where changes are starting to occur like Sun Wukong awakening. If the flow comes in, it could change again. It's a subtle moment in the market, so we need to diagnose the market a bit. It's a timing to cross the first and second half of the year and check it once. It's a subtle moment, what does that mean, and if you could check the Korean and U.S. stock markets now? Well, you might think you need to go to the U.S. stock market first to support it, but...

Looking at the data that comes out, the indices are quite good, and the Korean stock market is the same. The indices are fine, but both the U.S. and Korean stock markets, despite the indices or the overall sentiment not being bad, are not good in detail. What I mean is, there are significantly more declining stocks. This is the case for the U.S. stock market as well. Even if you usually look at the S&P 500 or Nasdaq in the U.S. stock market, there are stocks that cross the middle, such as the Russell Lynch, with stocks up to 3,000 in market cap. When you look at the flow of those stocks, you can't keep up. If you think about where this has influenced the most, the most important thing is interest rates. If you see that interest rates have an impact, from the perspective that it hasn't kept up as much as expected, you should think that a change in interest rates needs to come in for all stocks and indices to rise, and a positive change can come later.

It was the same, especially in the U.S. market, the best thing in the first half of the year was big tech companies that we know, like AI. These big tech companies that can emerge with AI were the best. So, as that change continues, many people are leaving the U.S. market for investment these days. Even if it's not possible in the Korean market, they are leaving for the U.S. And even if they go to the U.S. and trade, they don't deal with small stocks, like small software companies or unknown biotech companies, right? So, they can't trade them. But as we trade the stocks we know, we buy them and wait a bit, and they all go up. So, it's worth investing in U.S. stocks. But if big tech companies keep going up and a change occurs where even mid-cap stocks start moving.

Well, then everything will change. At that time, the Korean stock market may be better than the U.S. stock market. In the first half of the year, it was relatively good in terms of the index. However, in the second half, we may need to check more carefully. We should look at it in a more detailed manner. Now, talking about U.S. stocks, Tesla's stock price can't drop. These days, it has been continuously rising, about 10% today, reaching $231. Some people are talking about weak performance, but why is the stock price rising? There were two reasons. When we look at Tesla, there is something called a breakthrough gap. It jumps up without any particular good news. So, there are these two factors. For companies like Tesla, first, there is a lot of talk about production volume. Even though the production volume in the first quarter was in the double digits, it was expected to be not so good this time, but it didn't decrease much.

The declining trend was less severe than expected, so it seems that there was a reaction. Since the anticipation was not high, with a slight improvement, especially when looking at this trend, the performance in the second quarter was good. So, the electric vehicle market seems to be reviving. So, from the perspective of China, they are saying, Oh, this is good. The changes in China are good. When such responses come out, even Tesla is doing well. As expected, around 440,000 units were released, and the actual delivery volume was about 10,000 units higher than expected. Reacting to these, I don't think that's the key point. The essential points are that Musk supported CEO Trump. Well, that's just something they mentioned, and it changed to supporting Trump.

It's unavoidable these days. When you look at it now, the companies that didn't get into the Trump side have all dropped out. Oh, recently, Biden coughed a lot again during the presidential debate, showing an unhealthy appearance. It's a bit disappointing to see him taking medicine and struggling. Of course, there may be reasons for that, but the most crucial thing is this. When we look at Tesla's business unit, we have electric cars, charging business, robots, and various autonomous driving businesses. Surprisingly, the energy business sector is showing strong growth. In the energy business unit, there is ES business unit, such as solar business unit. But among them, the ES business unit, as you all know, that power.

In this area, there is an industrial Mega Pack and a Powerwall for home use. With these two, the industrial side is growing explosively. Tesla has been thinking a lot about its role in the ESS sector, and suddenly confirming this growth rate, it seems like a significant change will come. They currently have a factory in California. It is more crowded than expected. They need to increase production. Where will they do this? In China. The factory is expected to start operating in the first quarter of 2025. Then the factory will be up and running. The capacity will increase. I expect nearly 100% growth by 2025 and 2026. Currently, the energy business unit centered around ESS accounts for only 6-7% of total sales. By 2026, I expect it to jump to 20%. That's how important it is.

Talking about taking on roles, the importance of it, when I said, Look at this, the mayor reacted strongly. When you look closely, if you look at the market share Tesla has in the U.S., the ES ES division is ranked number one in the market show, holding 30%. Do you know why? It's LG Energy Solution, holding 16.5%. While looking at the data, some data that was overlooked started to come out, and from there, views on LG Energy Solution, which is doing well in the secondary battery sector in the U.S., started to emerge from the ES side. Nowadays, things are changing again. With LG Solution's appearance changing as well, parts that were only looking at electric cars are gradually diversifying. Another thing that was known is that as these parts that have grown a lot come out, it actually accelerated Tesla. Such appearances are not what I think. But in the U.S. and Europe,

Facing the dilemma of increased demand for electric cars, in China, it can be seen as a sign of survival that sales are increasing anyway. However, there are risks of bidding competitions, which of course also apply to Tesla. Some predict that it will be challenging for Tesla to grow further due to the advanced lineup of Tesla models. How do you view this kind of spirit and what about Tesla's stock price in the future? It's not about simply saying it will keep rising just because it has been going up. Expectations have diminished significantly as sales related to electric cars are not as promising as before. While acknowledging that, other previously unknown facts are emerging, showing that Tesla has changing aspects. As we head into August, on August 8th.

Robot taxis are coming out. Yes, what does this mean? It means that they have confidence in autonomous driving. If it's not a cheap car, it will become a popular car. I think that when people buy it a lot, they will use it during the day, park it in the garage when they get home, and just switch it out. That's what I'm saying. There won't be a need to switch the switch. But if you switch the switch and come home, and you have no use for it, you can just switch it to robot taxi mode. Then what will this car do? It will receive requests. Someone on the other side wants to go to the neighboring store. But I parked the car somewhere and left it. When I call for the car, the person next door sees it, brings the car over, picks up the person, takes them to the store, charges a fee, and handles the operation by itself. It will come back right before I need it at home. While I'm sleeping, this car is working for me. How amazing is that?

As these concepts begin to emerge, there are some exaggerated appearances, but usually, when our dream of growth is shattered, the stock price plummets indiscriminately. However, as the enthusiasm for growth begins to return, the stock price recovers temporarily. Isn't it likely that there will be a refreshment saying, This is such a company? Perhaps the sales data-related aspects have not yet reached their peak, and the downturn is seen as having reached its peak. It seems more appropriate to view the changes in stock prices more positively. Samsung's second-quarter performance expectations are being revised upward. The FN Guide's second-quarter operating profit forecast consensus is 8.1 trillion won, which is expected to increase by 1,000,000% compared to the 600 billion won level in the same period last year. How do you see the preliminary results for the second quarter and how do you view the future stock prices? Anyway, as far as I know, the performance is now being...

I know that it's coming out around July 5th. Yes, that's right. First of all, the change that is coming in. The first thing is, now, don't talk about HBM anymore. It's not a topic anymore. Even without HBM, the performance is good, right? That's right. That's right. You can explain just by saying that the memory is working well even without going to MBD. Where did we see this? Micron Technology showed it when they announced their performance. So, by taking that as it is, when the third-ranked company in the market shows this much change, it raises expectations on how much faster the turnaround of the first-ranked company will be. So, when changes like this come in that direction, expectations increase. Therefore, I believe that it will be reflected. However, in the short term, even if Samsung Electronics announces good performance on the day of the announcement or recently, no matter how good the performance is, the stock price doesn't react much. It may be a little depressed or it may be like that, so even if the reaction cools down.

This time, when we announce the second-quarter results and talk about the third and fourth quarters, even if we say it could slightly increase from around 82 trillion won, in the third and fourth quarters, the operating profit itself starts to exceed 100 trillion won. Then, the atmosphere changes again, right? So, the second half of the year will be even better. Even if it's just a speculation, couldn't the stock price turn around? Frankly, there was a lot of talk about Samsung Electronics. Why is Samsung Electronics struggling without HBM? Even if we just calmly look at the cycle now, there should be one at around 86,000 won in the front. It seems reasonable for it to go in that direction, at least. Probably, based on the discussions, within August, in the HBM-related area, it is expected that the discussion on NVIDIA's supply will almost be completed. They received outstanding attention.

SK Hynix is a bit shaky, and Samsung Electronics seems to be going up. Changes are happening in this direction. In my opinion, both should be seen as opportunities. From NVIDIA's perspective, H00 is coming now, then H200, and if we go into early next year, B100 and R100 will come out, upgraded chips will start to come out. In the current case, HBM 32 goes in five, then six, eight, and so on. As we need to go into the same house, more units of HBM will come out, but there may be concerns due to shortages. So, no matter how you look at it, whether you buy Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix, isn't it necessary because NVIDIA needs it more? If that's the case, we have no choice but to accept it. SK Hynix may temporarily drop out. If that happens, it should also be seen as an opportunity. If you already have Samsung Electronics, it's the same.

I expect additional plus alpha to continue. The key point of looking at this opportunity is that the cycle repeats itself and rises again. It seems like we need to focus on this point. I saw a newspaper article saying that it might reach 100,000 won. What do you think? Last time, I bought it at 96,800 won, but even if we only look at the current performance, if we only focus on the cycle of memory semiconductors, when we look at the best performance in the past, it was around 51 trillion won in 21. If we go to next year, it's almost going to reach the 55 trillion won range. But if we consider the plus alpha, if HBM 3 comes in, precisely, if it goes in that direction and expands its scope, it is said that we need to give more upside. This might not be a high price because in the case of memory semiconductors, there is clearly a cycle.

You should look at where the cycle ends. It's probably better to sell before reaching the peak. This is typically seen as a two-and-a-half-year cycle. So, early next year, the cycle could end. This change may start with the introduction of AI-driven HBM 3. With that, expansion could be possible. How much this will be crucial is what matters the most. It's likely that the growth rate of operating profit will start to slow down. This is a sign that a turning point is approaching. You should pay attention to this. Also, as the semiconductor export growth rate continues to increase and then slightly stagnate, memory demand itself may become heavier. Considering this, you should be prepared for any timing. If HBM MBD is delivered, it is said that the 100,000 won mark will be surpassed by electronics.

Can't we break through the all-time high? Even if not, it seems like we can go in a similar direction. In my opinion, isn't it more important to dream of 120,000 or 130,000 electronics rather than the all-time high? Although we have dreams, the performance of the foundry will determine the changes. The current foundry business segment may be reflected in the performance, but the stock price is not reflecting it at all. Many customers are leaving, so if that happens, we will continue to fall behind TSMC. Suddenly, like Sun Wukong awakening, there are parts that are asking how to handle it as if awakening. When something starts to change, the flow comes in. Then it can change again. I believe, as a shareholder of Samsung Electronics, we should also ask SK Hynix. In the second quarter, SK Hynix is expected to have a deficit of around 15.8 trillion won in revenue.

With a profit of 49 trillion won, sales three months ago were 140 trillion won, and operating profit was 20 trillion won, exceeding expectations by 12.62% and 81.2%, respectively. How do you see the future of Hynix? It's currently at 236,000 won, and if you're a holder, when should you sell? Because it's not something you can hold forever. Last summer, the Hynix stock price was around 120,000 won, and it just rose to 200,000 won. At that time, we talked about 200,000 won, but it just passed that mark and went even higher. So, the current market cap is slightly below 170 trillion won. When we look at PBR bands for stocks like SK Hynix, a memory semiconductor company, they tend to break through the upper part of the PBR band. It's currently at around 1.85 times, so if it goes up by about one or two times, that's the peak. So, the weak point that was mentioned at that time was around 160,000 won.

If the price goes over 170,000 won, there was a strong atmosphere of almost selling suits. When PBR Ban Ge got a little excited about growth, the bulls were trapped. The cycle was trapped, and as a result, they ignored growth too much. When it kept going up, they sold everything and left. Oh, it went up another 50,000 or 60,000 won. This kind of situation emerged. In conclusion, if you currently hold Hynix, I hope you can hold it until you can see it as a seed for growth. Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, there are some variables. Even if there is volatility or turbulence when Samsung Electronics enters, I think that would be more of an opportunity. The position is still not greatly shaken. So, from Nvidia's perspective, who are they mainly looking at? They seem to be looking at Hynix and when Samsung Electronics enters, they seem to be looking towards the sub side. So far, Hynix's position is still.

I think we should consider that there won't be a significant change. Should we try to hit 200 trillion won in sales? From now on, we could go up by about 30%. It's okay to add around 300,000 won. That's all I will mention. In my mind, even if it's 300,000 won, someone has to buy it. Then, what if the performance doesn't come out well? If we look at it now, as mentioned earlier, in terms of annual performance, the market cap is expected to reach around 300 trillion won next year. Considering a growth of PR 15 times based on operating profit, the valuation could double. It may not be such an expensive figure. Looking at it from a profit perspective, since 1 trillion is expected to come out, it's an estimate. However, there could be more upside, and if we aim for around PR 10 times next year, let's try to reach 200 trillion won. This is how I'm looking at it with the mindset of trying it once. Whether it's Hynix or Samsung Electronics, or even American companies like NVIDIA, the stock prices are highly correlated. How do you see NVIDIA's quarterly performance announcement?

How do you see the future stock prices? In response to this question, Researcher Lee Yong-chan of Hi Investment Securities stated that NVIDIA continues to announce good financial results, but the surprise rate of earnings per share is gradually decreasing, which is not a good sign. However, despite this, they are maintaining a dominant competitive position and high profit margins due to high demand. What do you think of this opinion? It could also be said that when the growth rate of a growing stock stops, it's done. But more importantly, is there a substitute for NVIDIA? Currently, there isn't. Will AMD take that place? It seems like Brucecom will. If a change like that doesn't happen yet, NVIDIA's public acknowledgment cannot be shaken. It seems more appropriate to consider that a premium will be added based on the flow of performance. In the past, we had Y2K, so in the early 2000s, the.

They called it the Dot-com bubble, and it's often compared to that time. Nowadays, as the stock prices are rapidly rising, people say that although back then, the performance that couldn't keep up, when you look at the performance compared to the stock movement in NVIDIA now, you should consider that there is quite a distance. If you don't see it that way, there are two things that stand out. The first is the stock split, and the second is that even if a stock split happens, even if bets come in like going from $120 to $200, a stock split itself doesn't have a significant impact on the stock price, right? Therefore, it's just a matter of feeling good about it. In comparison to that, after the stock split, the flow of stagnation increases a bit, which is the first thing, and the second is insider selling. Mr. Hwang is waiting to sell about 6 million shares, and if the stock price goes up, then this time.

Selling pressure will continue. Similarly, even institutional investors are preparing to sell. When the price goes up, there will be substantial selling pressure to handle. It seems that a process of digesting these substantial amounts of selling pressure will be necessary. We have been waiting for the performance results from that process. If we follow the Korean style, NVIDIA will be slightly ahead by a quarter. Since our second quarter becomes the first quarter, when about the third quarter comes for us, rapid growth may not be expected due to base effects. It's not possible to sustain a 50% growth continuously, right? Even though the growth rate has slowed down compared to the scale, the scale itself is maintained. The market's reaction to the sentiment that the scale is maintained despite the decrease in growth rate will be crucial. By then, there might be some fatigue in the market. However, after considering these factors, we will continue to strive for level up. This is how we should view it.

Yes, and also, talking about Broadcom, according to the decision of the Korean Securities Depository on the 2nd, individual investors have been buying Nvidia, ranking 1st to 5th in net purchases in the past month. It is estimated that Nvidia's profit is 1.5 times that of Lever It Grandrie's 1.5x long Nvidia Daily. Next, there are Micron Technology, Broadcom, and TSMC. What do you think about Micron Technology, Broadcom, and TSMC, excluding Nvidia? Looking at Nvidia, the side that produces Nvidia now is TSMC, and the same goes for Broadcom. Anticipation for the market is high, and individual investors have transformed a lot. Recently, I saw that, right. Yes, the Korean market is not very interesting, so recently, they have been performing well in terms of earnings, and there have been talks of stock splits. It has been gradually rising, receiving some profit-taking, and returning gently. Anyway, this side as well.

One of the most talked-about things when it comes to shaking NVIDIA's dominance is AMD. Also, as companies like Broadcom started producing chips and prominent players moving in different directions, there are many discussions about boosting competition in the industry of AI chips. Another topic that comes up is Qualcomm. It used to play a significant role in the CPU market for mobile devices, but as we enter the AI era, the focus is shifting towards areas like PCs. With Samsung Galaxy Book 4 H incorporating Qualcomm Snapdragon, the scope is expanding. There is a sense that the field is broadening, but recently, there have been discussions about falling behind, so it seems important to digest this.

In the case of AR, although the stock price fluctuates quite a bit, the expectations from the perspective of the company are high. Even though AR technology goes back and forth, as a chip design company, various companies are requesting designs for AI and similar technologies. Therefore, there is a diversity in requests, and it is mentioned that even AR-related stocks can benefit from this environment where chips for developing AI are in demand, starting to gain attention in the U.S. market.

삼성전자 사 모아가세요, 정말 좋은 뉴스가 있습니다 (김민수 대표)

출연 신청/제휴 문의: smilekdy7@naver.com

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파운드리 사업과 주식 시장에서의 엇갈린 성과

파운드리 사업부는 실적과 고객 유지에 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 잠재적으로 TSMC에 자리를 내줄 수 있습니다.

미국과 한국 증시 모두 전반적으로 긍정적인 지수를 보이고 있지만 상당수 종목이 하락하는 등 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

테슬라의 주가는 실적 부진에 따른 기대치를 벗어나지 못하고 있으며, 이는 아마도 획기적인 격차와 꾸준한 생산량 때문일 것입니다.

Tesla의 진화하는 비즈니스 초점 및 성장 전망

전기 자동차 시장은 2분기에 테슬라가 예상치를 뛰어넘는 실적을 달성하면서 유망한 회복세를 보였습니다.

Tesla의 에너지 사업부, 특히 ESS 부문은 폭발적인 성장세를 보이고 있으며 2026년까지 전체 매출의 20%를 차지할 것으로 예상됩니다.

Tesla의 확장 계획에는 2026년까지 거의 100%의 용량 증가에 기여할 것으로 예상되는 중국 내 신규 공장이 포함되어 있으며, 이를 통해 Tesla는 ESS 부문에서 선도적인 시장 점유율을 공고히 할 수 있을 것으로 예상됩니다.

테슬라의 판매량은 입찰 경쟁의 위험에도 불구하고 중국 내 전기차 수요 증가에 힘입어 증가하고 있습니다.

테슬라의 고급 모델 라인업이 추가 성장에 걸림돌이 될 수도 있지만, 8월에 로봇 택시를 도입하면서 자율 주행에 대한 자신감을 보여줌으로써 잠재적으로 인기를 높일 수 있을 것으로 보입니다.

판매 기대치의 변동에도 불구하고 로봇 택시의 새로운 개념과 삼성의 2분기 실적이 긍정적으로 수정된 것은 향후 테슬라의 주가에 대한 보다 낙관적인 전망을 제시합니다.

삼성전자 실적에 예상되는 변화

삼성전자는 마이크론 테크놀로지가 HBM 없이도 메모리가 잘 작동한다는 것을 입증함에 따라 실적이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

실적 호조 발표에 주가가 즉각적으로 반응하지는 않겠지만, 3분기와 4분기 영업이익이 100조원을 넘어설 것으로 예상돼 턴어라운드 가능성이 있습니다.

엔비디아의 공급 논의는 8월까지 완료될 것으로 예상되며, 곧 업그레이드된 칩이 출시될 예정이어서 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스에 대한 투자 기회가 될 것으로 보입니다.

메모리 반도체의 미래 예상하기

메모리 반도체 시장은 10만원 돌파 및 이전 실적을 뛰어넘을 수 있다는 기대감과 함께 반복적인 사이클을 따를 것으로 예상됩니다.

인공지능 기반 HBM 3의 도입은 업황 확대와 상승 여력을 높일 수 있는 중요한 요인으로 꼽히고 있습니다.

향후 반도체 산업의 변화, 즉 HBM MBD 도입과 파운드리 사업 부문의 실적은 주가와 향후 시장의 방향성에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.

하이닉스의 재무 성과 및 향후 전망

하이닉스는 3개월 전 매출액 140조원, 영업이익 20조원으로 예상치를 각각 12.

2% 상회하는 49조원의 큰 이익을 냈습니다.

현재 주가는 236,000원이며, 내년 시가총액 300조 원이 예상되는 30만 원 내외에서 매도를 고려하는 것이 좋습니다.

삼성전자의 시장 진입에 따른 변동성에도 불구하고 잠재적인 성장성과 기회요인을 보유한 삼성전자의 입지는 여전히 견고할 것으로 예상됩니다.

NVIDIA의 주당 순이익 서프라이즈 비율이 감소하고 있어 강력한 경쟁력과 높은 수익률에도 불구하고 잠재적인 우려를 나타내고 있습니다.

현재로서는 직접적인 대체재가 없지만, 향후 브루크컴이 그 역할을 대신할 수 있다는 추측이 나오고 있습니다.

다가오는 내부자 및 기관 투자자의 매도 압력과 시장의 잠재적 피로감으로 인해 상당한 매도 물량을 소화하는 과정이 필요하며, 이는 주식 실적에 영향을 미칠 것입니다.

개인 투자자가 칩 회사에 미치는 영향, 엔비디아 제외

개인 투자자들은 마이크론 테크놀로지, 브로드컴, TSMC에 대한 높은 기대감으로 엔비디아 주식을 집중적으로 매수하고 있습니다.

AMD는 엔비디아의 아성을 흔들고 있으며, 퀄컴은 CPU 시장에서 PC와 AR 기술 등의 분야로 영역을 확장하고 있습니다.

AI 칩에 대한 수요가 증가하면서 미국 시장에서 AR 관련 주식에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있습니다.