중동 분쟁이 계속되는 가운데 이스라엘의 전략

네타냐후는 미국 대선을 활용하여 이란에 대한 이스라엘의 전략을 수립하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

### 현재의 중동 긴장 상황: 네타냐후의 전략과 하마스의 리더십 변화
* 📰 네타냐후 총리는 특히 심각한 군사 정보 유출 사건과 관련하여 **이스라엘에 대한 당의 비전에 부합하는 결과**를 달성하겠다는 의지를 표명했습니다.
* 🤝 트럼프 후보와의 논의에 따르면 현 미국 행정부는 특히 이란의 영향력과 관련하여 **네타냐후의 목표를 지원하기 위해 다가오는 선거**를 활용할 수 있습니다.
* 💔 최근 하마스 지도자 **신라 시나르가 살해**되면서 이스라엘과 하마스 간의 향후 역학 관계에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있으며, 이는 **휴전 협상에 잠재적인 영향**을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🔍 박현도 교수는 **시난의 사망은 우발적인 사건**이며, 이스라엘은 군사 작전을 계속할 명분을 얻었지만 **하마스는 인질을 석방하지 않고 보복할 가능성**이 높다고 설명합니다.
* ⚔ 이스라엘의 군사 전략은 현재 전면전이 아닌 간헐적 공격 상태에 있는 하마스를 약화시키는 동시에 **헤즈볼라와 이란의 위협에 초점을 맞추는 것**을 목표로 하고 있습니다.
* 📊 군사 정보 유출과 네타냐후 총리 관저 공격으로 상황은 더욱 복잡해졌으며, 이는 **이스라엘에게 이란에 대한 군사 행동의 정당성**을 제공할 수 있습니다.
* 🛡 미국은 여전히 이스라엘의 강력한 동맹국이며, 바이든 행정부는 어느 정도 자제력을 보였지만, **군사적 준비는 이스라엘이 곧 이란의 목표물에 대해 결정적인 조치를 취할 수 있음을 시사**합니다.
* 📅 궁극적으로 **네타냐후의 오랜 정치 경험과 다가오는 미국 대통령 선거**는 향후 이스라엘의 역내 전략과 행동에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

I saw in the news that Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with candidate Trump. Now, Netanyahu believes he will work hard to achieve results that align with his party and his vision for Israel. There has been significant military intelligence from Israel that has leaked online. This is quite substantial. It seems they are currently looking towards Biden and Harris as the potential backers. So, it appears that the current U.S. administration is trying to leverage the election to help Netanyahu create the scenario he desires, aiming to control Iran's influence. However, whether this will come to an end or not ultimately depends on Netanyahu's decision, but for now, it doesn't seem like it will end. I am currently with Professor Park Hyun-do from the Euro-Med Research Institute at Sogang University, and we just learned that the leader of Hamas has been killed.

So, if that Shinlar Shinarn is dead, what will happen next between Israel and Mars? Is there any sign of resolution? I would like to ask about these matters. Welcome, Professor Park Hyun-do. 

Hello, nice to meet you. 

First of all, before we discuss anything else, it seems that this person was accidentally shot due to some coincidental circumstances. According to Israeli reports, it seems to resemble the saying, A cow backs up and catches a rat. It wasn't intentional. They didn't know it was Shinlar at the time of the attack, but when they finished the operation, they realized it was him. So, they ended up catching a big fish. Later on, I heard they conducted some DNA tests.

There was breaking news that someone similar to Shinnari had died, and they said a DNA test was underway, which eventually confirmed the identity. The highest leader of Hamas, or the person who can be considered the top leader of Hamas, is Ismail Haniyeh, who died last time in Iran. He is the political director and can be regarded as the highest authority. However, unlike Shinnari, Haniyeh was in Qatar. While in Qatar, he took the lead in international relations, especially in the recent ceasefire negotiations. Ultimately, even if a ceasefire was reached, the last person Haniyeh consulted was Shinwoyum, who was the one controlling Gaza, the stronghold of Hamas. He was the only person who could decide the war's course or end it.

There were people, and yes, those people are now the field commanders. In reality, the person who makes the decisions and gives orders is Shihab. So, what was the relationship between Hani and Shihab? In principle, Hani is supposed to be higher in rank, but in reality, the real power was held by the three countries. This is because Hani is someone who goes out and circulates, and from the perspective of people who support the Palestinian movement, Hani is living a very luxurious life in a five-star hotel, while Shihab is underground. The difference is already significant in how they approach people. Shihab has spent 22 years in prison in Israel. He was captured in 1988 and released in 2011. So, he spent 22 to 23 years in prison, and he can even speak Hebrew. He is quite unique.

It's true, on your side. And, you know, the person who planned this war was released in 2011. It wasn't just a simple release. Would Israel have wanted to release him? At that time, Hamas had been holding an Israeli soldier hostage for five years. The hostage, Gilad Shalit, was released on the condition that 107 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails would be freed for one Israeli soldier. That's when the famous saying emerged: One Israeli life is worth a thousand Palestinian lives. This saying came about because they released 127 prisoners. One of those released was Yahya Sinwar, who vowed that he would work for the freedom of the Palestinian people still held in Israeli prisons.

There are about 6,000 people involved, and the intense memory of wanting to release all those people is the reason why so many were captured during the invasion of Israel on October 7th last year. Yes, since it was changed to a 1:127 ratio, to get one more person, we would need to capture more people. We won't release them like before, but back then, the Prime Minister was Netanyahu. 

Now, the situation is complicated because the leader for ceasefire negotiations is currently absent. Even if this one person is missing, it doesn't mean that negotiations can't happen. The leader can be appointed later, but honestly, who becomes the leader isn't that important at this moment.

Israel has achieved the greatest results in this war. During this time, oh, this myth, of course. So, practically, if Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to end the war, he has a justification. He killed the key mission that took the hostages. You can think of this as similar to the U.S. removing Osama bin Laden from al-Qaeda. So, he has all the opportunities to end the war. Whether he does or not will ultimately be decided by Netanyahu, but as of now, it doesn't seem like he will end it. Well, he has all the justifications. Oh, but even if Israel feels that way, Hamas will continue to retaliate. They still have no intention of releasing the hostages. Ultimately, negotiations with the hostages will need to happen. However, the Prime Minister has not made any progress in hostage negotiations so far.

It has been stagnant, but it doesn't seem like there will be a new approach now. The operation to pull out the sword and organize the surroundings will likely continue. In reality, the fighting with Hamas is almost over. Hamas is currently in a state where they are intermittently attacking, but they do not have the capability for a full-scale war. Therefore, Israel's attention is more focused on Iran. 

Now, we are not only looking at the relationship with Hamas, right? That's correct; we are not just looking at the relationship with Hamas. There are also concerns regarding Hezbollah, and the situation in Syria and Yemen is somewhat escalating tensions. So, is the tension increasing due to the recent killings, or is it being alleviated? For now, Israel seems to be holding on to hope.

In fact, especially for the families of the hostages, Israeli people are generally in a situation where it's okay to stop the war if they can secure the release of the hostages. However, it seems that the Prime Minister is not inclined to do so. The biggest turning point in this war has been how to handle the Sinai Peninsula, and in many respects, Israel is now in a position to make decisions comfortably. However, they are currently facing an imminent attack. Just yesterday, they continued to strike Hezbollah's financial facilities in Lebanon. It seems that these operations will not stop, so it doesn't look like the Gaza war will end easily. This is because it is interconnected; a ceasefire in the Gaza war is linked to the situation with Iran and Hezbollah. I saw the news that came out early yesterday morning regarding Prime Minister Netanyahu.

I had a conversation with candidate Trump. He said that we had a good call, which was just his usual abstract remarks. On the Israeli side, Netanyahu mentioned that they would continue to act in the interest of our national benefits. Ultimately, I think we can't help but see a connection between the U.S. presidential election and decisions regarding Israel's situation in the ongoing conflict. So, what is Israel aiming for with the election in mind? If Israel acts without considering the election, that would be foolish, wouldn't it? Netanyahu is likely to make efforts to achieve the most suitable outcome for his party and his vision for Israel. Initially, they mentioned that they would attack Iran in a way that would not influence the Democratic side of the election.

So, it's good even from the Democratic Party's side, right? And Israel promised not to attack, ah, nuclear facilities or sensitive facilities in Iran, but the Prime Minister's office stated that they never said such a thing. And right now, Prime Minister Ta'a must be feeling quite frustrated. Just yesterday, there was military intelligence regarding Israel's movements that was leaked online from U.S. intelligence. This is quite significant. It seems that the Biden-Harris administration is being viewed as behind this. There are emerging claims that they intentionally leaked this information to control Israel's movements. If that’s the case, it means that Israel will have more room to maneuver, making it more convenient for them. They are questioning why they are being obstructed like this, and right now, everyone...

The situation is more favorable for Israel. In this case, regardless of what variables Hezbollah or Hamas might bring into play, Israel currently has the upper hand. Moreover, the Prime Minister's residence has been attacked, which seems to be another significant variable. From Israel's perspective, they could argue, If they attacked our Prime Minister's home, then we can target Iran's supreme leader. This provides them with a justification. On the other hand, Iran might claim, We did not attack; it was Hezbollah, while some could argue, Isn't this just a staged act by Israel to justify an attack on us? So, what does this mean? The key point is that Iran is now in a position where Israel has more room to maneuver.

Before the information was leaked and before the Prime Minister's residence was attacked, Israel was in a situation where it could still do something. However, the government had already let information slip, and the Prime Minister's house was attacked. Now, Israel is in a position where it can no longer remain passive after experiencing such an attack. Moreover, I have seen some of that information, and it contains a lot of military jargon in English, making it quite complex and dense. The core issue is that if Israel were to strike Iran, the surrounding countries are very concerned about how that would be carried out, especially since they are not allowing airspace access. However, it seems that they are training to launch ballistic missiles from the air. I also read about that in an article.

From the 15th to the 16th, those dates refer to past events. It seems that they conducted training during that time. It appears that the U.S. intelligence authorities have already conducted imagery analysis. The government is confirming how Israel is moving. They are practicing with drones and also launching ballistic missiles from the air. I'm not entirely sure how they launch ballistic missiles from the air. Typically, ballistic missiles are launched from the ground, so I don't understand how they are doing it. It seems they are conducting a lot of exercises. Sensitive information has emerged, and Iranian military experts can see what Israel is planning. This understandably makes Israel angry. However, Netanyahu...

The attack on the joint forces was something that Iran mentioned, saying it wasn't us but Hezbollah. It’s a bit annoying, isn't it? They should support me too, but if they say I did it, then that can't be the case. From the beginning, I didn't want this war to escalate. After Hassan Nasrallah's death, there was a lot of mourning, but they stated that the core of the anti-Israel front was Hezbollah. They had been saying that from the start. There was never a desire for war on our part. We thought, You guys handle your own matters. And Hezbollah understood Iran's sentiments, which is why, from the early days of the war, they kept saying, Don't worry; we’ll handle it ourselves. The situation regarding Hassan Nasrallah is now... in Iran.

It's not a very good situation. Anyway, Hezbollah, this time, Israel is determined to completely uproot Hamas. It seems like that's the situation. Uprooting is not easy, right? Yes, uprooting is indeed difficult. However, the plan is to weaken them as much as possible. In Israel, they often use the phrase mowing the lawn. If the lawn is well-manicured, it can last for about 10 or 20 years, right? So, that's the kind of operation they intend to carry out. Israel is aware that completely eradicating them is difficult. The Israeli military has been saying that completely wiping out Hamas and Hezbollah is challenging, and they need to quickly come up with an exit strategy. That's what Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu are discussing.

The Prime Minister had a heated debate, and yes, Israel is trying to cut the grass as much as possible. So, when we say cutting the grass, it means deploying ground troops. The ground forces are already somewhat in place, particularly in the southern region. However, it’s not a full-scale ground operation; they are conducting missions to destroy Hezbollah's underground facilities. But upon entering, Israel is quite surprised by the preparation level of Hezbollah, which is far more precise and extensive than Israel had anticipated. As Israel enters the underground tunnels that can be considered Hezbollah's stronghold, they are finding that it is much larger than they imagined. This has raised alarms within Israel. Now, how has the conflict with the UN forces been resolved?

It's not easy because, from Israel's perspective, they need to prevent Hezbollah from being armed or establishing bases nearby, and they must monitor both sides. The question is, why didn't they stop Hezbollah from building a stronghold right next to the UN base and setting up their operational base there? So, Israel is saying that they have no choice but to attack the UN forces because they are being attacked from the surrounding areas. From the viewpoint of those who support Israel, this makes sense. For instance, if someone sets up an attack base next to a neighborhood, that neighborhood should have stopped them, so why didn't they? It's the same logic.

So, in that situation, the march continues, and the confrontation inevitably takes place. Furthermore, it is not just about protecting the integrity of Israel. The main concern for the UN forces is this: when the UN forces move, the Israeli army enters their midst. For example, if the UN forces' armored vehicles are on the move, then the Israeli army, to avoid Hezbollah's attacks, infiltrates the UN forces' convoy. This leads to confusion, as they might wonder what the difference is. This situation keeps happening, and the UN forces cannot stop it. They are unable to. Originally, the idea was that the UN forces would be strong enough that Hezbollah would simply back off if the Israeli army made a mistake, but the UN forces...

It's not possible. Ah, so the UN forces are also heavily attacked. Ah, really? Yes, they are attacked a lot. It's not just the Israeli side that is being attacked; they are also attacked by Hezbollah. Additionally, the Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon are attacking the UN forces, hitting them with armored vehicles and trying to set things on fire. There are many such scenes. Ah, they are peacekeeping forces. Yes, peacekeeping forces. But the problem is that our troops are also there, right? The Dongmyeong Unit is currently there. Yes, our Dongmyeong Unit is there as part of the UN forces. They could easily be attacked, whether from the Israeli side or from Hezbollah, right? Yes, they could be attacked. However, we have a high level of trust among the Lebanese residents.

It's good, but our soldiers often conduct civil operations over there. Oh, really? That's why Korean people are quite popular wherever they go. It seems like things are flowing quite mysteriously right now. Not long ago, there was talk in Israel about attacking Iran's military nuclear facilities, and the U.S., especially from the Democratic side, said that might be a bit too much. They suggested that if we give them THAAD, they could defend against missile attacks, so let's be moderate about it. But after that, there was a leak of military information, and then there was another incident. Netanyahu's residence was attacked, and Israel has received THAAD and can launch attacks. However, initially, Israel was quite hesitant, usually taking their time.

There were many talks about how they would act immediately after it ended, but it was very quiet, wasn't it? However, it seems that after the attack, there was a gap in the anti-air missile network. For example, they ran out of ammunition. They need to continuously defend against those missiles in order for Israel to counterattack. It seems that the shortage caused the delay. But now that it is being replenished, regardless of what the Democratic Party in the U.S. says, there is a possibility that the situation has changed, and they might launch an attack. They said they wouldn't target nuclear facilities or oil facilities, but who knows if they will really stick to that? They also mentioned that they would only strike military facilities, but some military facilities could be related to nuclear facilities. Additionally, there could be military sites near refineries as well.

I'm not sure about this. In the U.S., we said we wouldn't strike oil refineries or nuclear facilities, but we can't know for sure. Everything is currently unclear. Generally, the U.S. will be on Israel's side, and European or other Western countries haven't really taken a side yet, or they aren't siding with Iran. So, we should consider them to be on Israel's side. The U.S. has consistently been on Israel's side. France has expressed some dissenting opinions, but during the Gaza situation, they were quite silent. Now, suddenly, they are raising their voices regarding Lebanon. France has a history with Lebanon; it was once a territory of mine, a country created by France, and I have a stake in it. You keep pushing too hard.

France has made a strong statement regarding Israel. Yes, that's right. France has its own interests at stake, which is why they spoke out. Anyway, many weapons will likely be used, right? Yes, especially ceremonial weapons will also be used a lot. There aren't many countries that can produce such a large quantity of weapons worldwide. Does our country have a significant amount of weapons as well? Is it necessary to mention that? Currently, there is a movement in the country to halt arms exports to Israel. I haven't confirmed how much is being exported; I'm not sure about that. However, there are campaigns in the country advocating for the cessation of arms exports to Israel. Naturally, there are various countries around the world that produce munitions and other such items.

Countries don't have that many options right now. For example, Europe has poured a lot into Ukraine, and we also went indirectly towards Ukraine, but the United States made it clear that we are going directly, which put us in a very awkward position. Yes, that's the situation. So, we are currently in a difficult situation in many ways. On the other hand, defense companies might not show it outwardly, but they could be smiling a bit. If the defense industry does well, that would be nice, but it seems like a double-edged sword. They could make money while also facing criticism. If discussions about banning weapons are already happening domestically, that's concerning. Understood. In conclusion, Israel currently has more options available moving forward.

I think it has opened up more than before. Next, we need to wait until the presidential election is over to make a decision. Netanyahu has been the prime minister for 16 years, so he has tremendous political skills. He will try to utilize the upcoming U.S. presidential election to create the picture he desires. As he mentioned, he has talked about a new Middle Eastern strategy. It seems that his goal is to control Iran's influence. 

Understood. Today, the situation in the Middle East, especially with the recent attack by Israel leading to the assassination of Sirga, has many people worried that it could become more serious. So, I asked Professor Park Hyun-do for his opinion today. Thank you very much, Professor, and I look forward to seeing you again.

Thank you. I will share nine pieces of wisdom that elevate the quality of life. You can find more details by clicking the link below for Wisdom College Season 2.

폭주하는 이스라엘, 트럼프 일병 구하기? f. 서강대 유로메나연구소 박현도 교수 [인뎁스 60]

삼프로TV에 대해 궁금하시다면?

📺 평일 라이브 프로그램 안내
[06:00-07:15] 월스트리트 모닝브리핑 (월가 뉴스레터, 글로벌 인터뷰)
[07:15-09:00] 오늘아침 라이브 (뉴스3, 마켓 인사이드, 인뎁스60)
[09:00-10:00] 오프닝벨 라이브
[10:00-11:00] ⟨월~목⟩ 맞동산 (부동산) ‖ ⟨금⟩ 백년의 아침 (건강)
[15:20-16:30] 클로징벨 라이브
[16:30-17:10] 뉴스룸
[17:10-18:00] 박근형의 데일리 힌트
[18:00-19:00] 퇴근길 라이브
[19:00-21:00] 언더스탠딩

💼 비즈니스 문의 채널 안내
- 광고/협업/제작대행 문의 : (메일) ad@3protv.com, (전화) 010-2090-6748, (설문지 제출) https://url.kr/yi4rpg                                                 
- 전문가(연사) 섭외 및 기업교육 문의 :  (메일) edu@3protv.com, (전화) 02-2118-0704~0705, (웹사이트) https://zrr.kr/lRQq
- 언더스탠딩 문의 : (메일) to.understanding.official@gmail.com
- 삼프로TV IR 문의 :  IR@3protv.com 

🙋‍♂️3PRO 고객센터
- (전화) 02-2118-0707, 010-3898-2324
- (메일) edu.help@3protv.com
- (1:1 문의 게시판) https://apps.3protv.com/myqna/write
- 평일 09:00-18:00 운영되며, 주말에는 3PRO 앱/웹에 1:1 문의를 남겨주시면 감사하겠습니다.

📢사칭 주의
- 삼프로TV의 구성원과 삼프로TV에 출연하시는 분들은 문자메시지/카카오톡/전화/텔레그램 등을 통해 절대 개인적인 투자권유 및 리딩방, SNS 가입을 권유하지 않습니다.
- 만일 이러한 연락을 받으셨다면 모두 사기이므로, 링크를 클릭하지 마시고 피해가 없도록 주의하시기 바랍니다.

삼프로TV 3PROTV

네타냐후의 전략과 하마스 리더십 변화

네타냐후 총리는 이란의 영향력을 견제하기 위해 미국 행정부의 지원과 공조를 모색하고 있습니다.

최근 하마스 지도자 신라 시난이 우발적으로 살해되면서 가자지구에서 이스라엘의 향후 행동에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

하마스 내부의 권력 역학 관계는 복잡하며 이스마일 하니예와 시합이 상당한 영향력을 행사하고 있으며 이들의 관계는 조직의 의사 결정에 결정적인 역할을 해왔습니다.

이스라엘-하마스 분쟁의 복잡한 역학 관계

10월 7일 이스라엘 침공 당시 인질들이 붙잡힌 이후 복잡한 협상 과정을 거쳐 현재 1:127의 비율로 석방이 이루어지고 있습니다.

네타냐후 총리는 전쟁을 끝내야 한다는 명분을 가지고 있지만 인질 협상에 진전이 없는 반면, 이스라엘은 이란과 더 광범위한 지역 긴장으로 초점을 옮기고 있습니다.

현재 진행 중인 분쟁은 가자지구의 휴전이 이란과 헤즈볼라의 상황과 연결되어 있으며, 네타냐후의 행동은 다가오는 미국 대선의 영향을 받을 가능성이 높습니다.

이스라엘 총리는 바이든-해리스 행정부가 이스라엘을 통제하려는 시도로 여겨지는 이스라엘의 움직임에 대한 미국 정보 보고서 유출로 인해 좌절감을 느끼고 있습니다.

총리 관저에 대한 공격으로 역학 관계가 바뀌면서 이스라엘은 이란을 공격할 명분이 더 커졌습니다.

한편, 이스라엘은 공중에서 탄도 미사일을 발사하는 군사 훈련과 훈련을 실시하고 있어 주변국의 우려를 불러일으키고 이스라엘을 더욱 분노하게 하고 있습니다.

하마스와 헤즈볼라에 대한 이스라엘의 전략

이스라엘은 하마스와 헤즈볼라의 영향력을 관리하기 위해 '잔디 깎기' 방식을 사용하여 이들의 세력을 약화시키기로 결심했습니다.

이스라엘군은 헤즈볼라의 지하 시설을 파괴하는 임무를 수행 중이지만 헤즈볼라의 광범위한 준비에 놀라움을 금치 못하고 있습니다.

헤즈볼라의 거점이 유엔군 기지 근처에 있어 이스라엘군과 유엔군 간의 대치와 혼란으로 이어져 유엔군과의 갈등이 복잡해졌습니다.

유엔군에 대한 공격과 긴장 고조

동명부대를 포함한 유엔군은 레바논에서 헤즈볼라와 그 지지자들로부터 집중적인 공격을 받고 있습니다.

이란의 군사 핵 시설 공격에 대한 논의와 그에 따른 군사 정보 유출로 이스라엘의 상황은 긴박하게 돌아가고 있습니다.

미국은 이스라엘의 편에 섰고, 프랑스는 최근 레바논 사태에 대해 목소리를 높이기 시작했습니다.

이스라엘과 무기 거래에 대한 프랑스의 입장

프랑스는 자국의 이익과 세계 무기 거래에 따라 이스라엘에 반대하는 목소리를 내고 있습니다.

프랑스에서는 이스라엘에 대한 무기 수출 중단을 촉구하는 캠페인이 벌어지는 가운데 이스라엘에 대한 무기 수출을 중단하려는 움직임이 일고 있습니다.

미국과 유럽의 우크라이나 개입으로 인해 상황은 복잡해지고 있으며, 이스라엘은 다가오는 미국 대선을 유리하게 활용할 가능성이 있는 등 앞으로 더 많은 선택지가 있는 것으로 보입니다.