세속화와 사회적 웰빙: 민주주의 사회에서의 상관관계와 인과관계: 상관관계 대 인과관계

### 세속화와 사회적 웰빙: 사회학적 관점
* 🌍 필 주커만 교수는 종교적 믿음과 사회적 안녕의 상관관계를 조사하여 믿음이 부족하면 사회가 쇠퇴한다는 통념에 이의를 제기합니다.
* 🤔 그는 대량 총격 사건과 같은 사회적 문제가 신앙의 부족에서 비롯된다는 정치인들의 빈번한 주장에 대해 인과관계를 잘못 파악한 것이라고 반박합니다.
* 📊 주커만의 연구는 세속화, 즉 종교적 신념의 쇠퇴를 강제적(예: 전체주의 체제 하에서)과 자연적(자유 사회에서)이라는 두 가지 방식으로 분석합니다.
* ⚠ 구소련이나 크메르 루즈에서 볼 수 있듯이 강제 세속화는 끔찍한 인권 침해를 초래했으며, 국가가 강요하는 무신론의 위험성을 부각시켰습니다.
* 💡 반면 스칸디나비아, 영국, 아시아 일부 국가와 같은 민주주의 국가에서는 낮은 종교성과 높은 사회적 웰빙 사이에 긍정적인 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 📈 신에 대한 믿음이 가장 낮은 국가는 경제가 가장 번영하고 평등주의 사회이며 범죄율이 가장 낮은 경우가 많으며, 그 예로 일본을 들 수 있습니다.
* 📉 반대로 종교적 민주주의가 높은 국가일수록 폭력, 빈곤, 사회 문제 발생률이 높아지는 경우가 있습니다.
* ⚖ 주커만은 사회적 안녕은 종교적 믿음에만 의존하는 것이 아니라 경제 정책, 사회 구조, 제도적 틀과 같은 세속적 요인에 따라 달라진다는 인과관계가 없다는 결론을 내립니다.

놀랍게도 세속적 민주주의 국가가 고도로 종교적인 국가보다 더 높은 사회적 행복지수를 보이는 경우가 많습니다.

What is the relationship, the societal relationship between levels of religious belief and faith in God and societal well-being or societal decay?

And chaos? And you might be surprised by the answers. My name is Phil Zuckerman. I'm a professor of sociology

and secular studies in Claremont, California, and I'm the author of a book called *Society Without God*, and it's the

latest edition of that book that I'm going to be talking to you about right now. One of my main motivations is that here

in the United States, we have a lot of politicians who are constantly blaming society's problems on a lack of faith. So

we have a lot of shootings here in this country, constantly having mass shootings on a daily basis, school shootings, and

whenever these happen, rather than talk about our gun policies, our poverty rates, or some kind of structural or

institutional issues, um, we'll have politicians say it's because we've abandoned God, it's because we're not

people of faith. And this is something that you'll see over and over again in the news: governors, senators, presidents,

mayors. It's like there's this notion that if people in a society stop believing in God, stop worshipping God, and

stop being religious, the results for society will be bad; you know, immorality will run rampant, there will be crime,

depredation, degradation. So I'm curious about that. I'm interested in that, and that's what a lot of my research has

been focusing on: what is that relationship? So when you look at this question at a national or societal level—because I'm not talking about an

individual's faith; that's another topic—and how their belief in God works in

their lives, how it helps them or comforts them, helps them with addiction or whatever; that's another issue. That's

An issue for psychologists to talk about. I'm a sociologist, I'm a social scientist, so I'm interested in that societal big

picture level. So when we talk about society's um, not being very religious or losing their religion, we're talking

about secularization, which is the process over time whereby people in a society stop being religious; they stop

attending church or synagogue or mosque; they stop, they don't pray; they don't have faith in God or Allah or Vishnu or

whatever it is. Um, and they stop identifying as religious. Now, there's two ways that can happen: there's a kind of forced, coercive

version of secularization, and then there's a kind of organic, free version of secularization. The first one's a nightmare.

Think of the atheistic rulers of the former Soviet Union; think about the atheism of the Khmer Rouge; think about certain regimes,

the Communist regime in China right now; think about Enver Hoxha, the dictator of the first declared atheist nation of Albania.

In those situations, you have a dictatorship that seeks to dominate all aspects of society; wants no competition,

no institutional competition, no ideological competition, so they go after religion viciously and with bloody might, and the results are horrible, terrible

human rights; no freedoms; religious people are persecuted, tortured, imprisoned. So if you look at the history

of certain atheist societies um, that were forced into secularization, and you think, 'What a nightmare,' you're right, and

those experiments in secularization ought to be condemned as gross violations of all human decency. But there's another kind of

secularization. This happens in democratic, relatively free societies where there is no government that is persecuting people for being religious

or actively promoting atheism or secularism; it's just that people are living their lives relatively free.

There's freedom of thought, there's freedom of speech, there's freedom of assembly, there's freedom of the press,

etc., etc. And what we find is, decade after decade after decade, they start being less religious on all measures. Think of

places like Scandinavia, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Uruguay, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc., etc. What

happens when people freely abandon their faith? When religion evaporates naturally, not through force at the barrel of a

gun? That's more interesting to me because, to me, dictatorships, whether they're atheistic or religious, are

always a nightmare. Society always suffers; people always suffer. Religious regimes that are dictatorships, atheistic regimes that are dictatorships, are

always a nightmare for human rights, for human well-being, you name it. But when we look at democracies, that's another P—

that's that's more of an interesting story. And what do we find? What we find is contrary to the

pontifications of a lot of American politicians, but I should say it's not just American politicians. You can find

mullahs throughout the Middle East; you can find uh, Catholic priests throughout Latin America. In fact, anywhere that religion has a strong presence, you will find

people saying, 'If we're not religious, whatever religion that is—Judaism, Islam, Christianity, Hinduism, etc., etc.—then

society will fall apart; we won't have any morals; everything will go into disarray.' But I'm I'm more sensitive to

it here in the United States because this is where I live and this is what I am subject to on a daily basis when I

read the news and watch the news. So what do we find in my research? I've said, 'Well, this is this is interesting because you

you it's basically social science: you have an independent variable and a dependent variable. If the independent variable is faith in God or levels of

faith in God in a given society. Great. We can ascertain that, we can measure that, we can find that out. And then if the

dependent variable is societal health or depravity, or societal well-being, we have variables that indicate that too.

Things like murder rates, poverty rates, aggravated assault rates, um, domestic abuse rates, etc., etc., etc. You know, levels

of health care, child care, elder care, uh, how good is the society for women, etc., etc. Educational attainment. So what do we

find? Again, excluding those dictatorships, whether they're atheistic or religious, when we just look at democracies, here's

what we find. First of all, you can take the countries that are the least believing in God right now. In fact,

there's seven countries today that have a majority of people who don't believe in God: the UK, Sweden, Norway, Czech

Republic, Estonia, South Korea, and the Netherlands. And there's many other countries where it's about half the

population doesn't believe in God anymore. They're either atheists or agnostics or indifferent, but they say no

when asked if they believe in God. What do we find? Most societies, most democratic societies that have significant levels of a lack of belief in God are actually doing extremely well.

They have the most prosperous economies; they're very

egalitarian and equal; they have the lowest violent crime rates, the lowest murder rates. Japan's an excellent

example, uh, where God belief is extremely low. Japan doesn't even have a history of Christianity in its culture, and yet they

have among the lowest murder rates in the world. And then when you look at the countries today, the democratic countries

that are the most faithful, that have the most active believers, they're actually not doing so great compared to the

secularized societies; they have worse murder rates, worse poverty rates. Think of places like El Salvador, um, think of

places like Moldova. What you see is, um, more and more, um, social problems, unethical behavior, immorality, etc.

etc. So that's just comparing countries, but you can also do it other ways. I'll give you two more ways you can do it. You

can take a single country like the United States, but you could do this in the UK if you want, or Canada, or

whatever. But let's just take the United States. We can divide the United States up into states; we also divide our

country up into counties. We have very accurate data, national survey data, on how many people in a given state or a

given county believe in God; not just if they believe in God, but how strong their belief in God is, because you can ask

people, you know, 'Are you a strong believer? Are you somewhat of a believer? Do you kind of believe?' etc., etc. So we

have lots of data on levels of belief in God at the state level in the United States and also at the county level.

Guess what we find? The same correlation: those states and counties that have the lowest rates of belief in

God actually tend to be doing better; they have more educated populations, fewer murder rates, lower poverty rates, better health care—um, you

name it. Finally, another thing you can do is you can take a single country over time. Take the Netherlands; you can look

at data about the Netherlands going back 100, 150 years, sometimes 200, 300 years, depending on the available evidence and

data. And you can see that in certain societies, when daily, when, when regular belief was very strong, um, when

individual belief was very high, societal belief was very high, what was daily life like? Actually, there was more violence.

More uh, murder, more assault, more sexual assault 200 years ago in the Netherlands, when the Netherlands was highly

religious compared to today, where most Dutch people don't even believe in God, and you have much lower rates of day-to-day

violence than you did in the same society that has become highly secularized. Now I know what you're

thinking, because I get this all the time. Phil, Phil, Phil, you're... this is just correlation; correlation is not causation.

And what they'll say is, the reason some societies like Japan, South Korea, Uruguay, Canada, or France are doing so well,

and the reason other societies that might be highly religious, like El Salvador, or Colombia, or Poland, etc., are not

doing so well, that is a matter of economics, politics, history, maybe colonialism, maybe demographics,

maybe racial issues, maybe uh, it has to do with, you know, a host of things other than whether they believe in God or not.

You're, you're, you're totally doing the fallacy of correlation equaling causation. Yeah, all those other things,

politics, economics, demographics, culture—you name it—those are earthly issues; they don't have anything to do with a

God. So it actually proves my point. Whatever the reason certain democratic societies today are doing quite well, it

probably has nothing to do, or very little to do, with their religious belief or faith. But that disproves the

assertion, which is one of my life's goals, that argues if we abandon faith in God, society will collapse. We

can clearly prove that as falsifiable; we can clearly show that that is actually the wrong correlation equaling causation.

Anybody who says school shootings are the result of a lack of belief in God is committing the fallacy of correlation

equating causation, and anybody who makes the claim that if we aren't religious, everything will go to...

that's actually disprovable. We can show the opposite; that in fact, those societies today, democratic, free societies where religion has evaporated organically and

freely, are doing quite well, which suggests that there are other factors that make for a healthy society,

that there are other reasons. But all those reasons are this-worldly; they don't have anything to do with faith,

they don't have anything to do with faith and belief and worship of a deity. They have to do with how we

organize our societies, what principles guide us here and now on this Earth, what institutions we create, what

policies we enact, what laws we are willing to follow and create. That is where we need to focus our attention if

we want to make the world a better place. So my point: what is the relationship between belief in God and societal

well-being? Not what most American politicians make it out to be. Thank you so much for watching. Cheers! Did I nail it? Yeah, awesome! If

you're interested in learning more about what happens when societies stop worshipping God, you can purchase Phil

What Happens when Countries Lose Religion? | Phil Zuckerman

A Dose of Reason

종교적 신념과 사회적 웰빙의 상관관계

첫 번째 질문은 종교적 신념과 사회적 안녕 또는 부패 사이의 관계를 탐구합니다.

사회학 및 세속학 교수인 필 주커만과 그의 저서 *신 없는 사회*를 소개합니다.

정치인들은 특히 총기 난사 사건과 같은 문제와 관련하여 사회 문제를 신앙 부족 탓으로 돌리는 경우가 많습니다.

개인의 믿음이 아닌 사회적 차원의 분석에 집중하세요.

세속화는 사회가 덜 종교적으로 변해가는 과정으로 정의됩니다.

강제적 세속화 대 유기적 세속화

강제적 세속화(예: 소련, 크메르 루즈)와 유기적 세속화(예: 스칸디나비아)를 구분합니다.

독재 정권 하에서 강제 세속화는 종종 인권 침해를 초래합니다.

유기적인 세속화는 사상, 언론, 집회의 자유가 있는 자유 사회에서 일어납니다.

스칸디나비아, 체코 등 유기적인 세속화를 겪고 있는 국가의 예로는 스칸디나비아, 체코 등이 있습니다.

연구는 신앙을 독립 변수로, 사회적 건강을 종속 변수로 하는 사회과학적 방법론을 사용합니다.

종속 변수에는 살인율, 빈곤율, 의료 서비스, 교육 성취도 등이 포함됩니다.

국민 대다수가 신을 믿지 않는 7개국과 신을 믿지 않는 인구가 많은 더 많은 국가가 나열되어 있습니다.

종교가 덜한 많은 민주주의 사회는 번영하는 경제, 평등주의, 낮은 범죄율을 보입니다.

분석을 확장하여 미국의 주와 카운티를 비교한 결과 비슷한 상관관계가 나타났습니다.

네덜란드에 대한 종단 연구에 따르면 종교성이 높은 기간에 폭력 발생률이 더 높은 것으로 나타났습니다.

상관관계 대 인과관계 논쟁 해결하기

반론은 상관관계와 인과관계에 대한 논쟁을 다룹니다.

경제, 정치, 역사와 같은 다른 요소들도 인정됩니다.

이러한 다른 요소들은 신의 존재와 무관한 '지상의 문제'로 간주됩니다.

이 연구는 믿음을 버리면 사회가 붕괴된다는 주장을 반증합니다.

학교 총격 사건이 신앙 부족에서 비롯된다는 주장은 오류라고 반박합니다.

사회 조직 및 정책과 같은 다른 요소들도 사회 복지에 중요한 요소로 강조되고 있습니다.

지상의 해결책과 제도적 개선에 초점을 맞춰야 합니다.

신에 대한 믿음과 사회적 안녕의 관계는 많은 정치인들이 주장하는 것과는 다릅니다.

필 주커먼의 책을 구매하여 자세히 알아볼 것을 추천합니다.