주식 시장과 산업 생산: 장기적 추세와 시사점

산업 생산과 주식 시장 동향은 장기적인 유사성을 보여 최적의 결과를 위한 투자 결정을 내릴 수 있도록 안내합니다.

### 주식 시장 투자를 위한 경제 지표 이해
* 📊 산업생산지수와 같은 경제 지표는 **주식 시장의 장기적인 추세를 안정적으로 보여줄 수 있어** 투자 의사 결정에 도움이 됩니다.
* 💰 산업 생산이 증가하면 **기업의 수요와 매출이 증가**하여 주식 시장 성장으로 이어집니다. 반대로 산업 생산이 둔화되거나 감소하면 **기업에게 실질적인 문제와 비용 압박**이 발생하여 결국 주가에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 📉 공장 가동률이 크게 떨어지기 시작하면 **기업이 수익률 감소와 투자 제약**에 직면하기 때문에 경기 둔화나 불황이 시작되기 전에 나타나는 경우가 많습니다.
* 🏭 지속적인 매출 증가에도 불구하고 **비용 상승으로 인해 영업이익이 감소**하여 주가가 하락할 수 있습니다.
* 📈 2024년 6월 산업 생산 지수는 점차 둔화되고 있지만 **인공지능, 데이터 센터, 서버**와 같은 산업에 대한 투자가 주식 시장을 지지하고 있습니다.
* 🎢 단기적인 주가 움직임은 경제 지표와 다를 수 있지만, 시간이 지남에 따라 **이러한 지표를 기반**으로 투자하면 좋은 의사 결정을 내릴 수 있습니다.
* 💸 단기 추세를 과장하는 경향이 있는 언론 보도에 주의하는 것이 중요하며, **경제 지표를 객관적으로 이해하는 것**이 중장기 투자자에게 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

Although temporary differences may occur in the stock market, there are economic indicators that show a similar trend over the long term. Even if they have moved similarly for 10 or 20 years, the reliability is very high. If they have been following a similar trend for about 70 years, the confidence level would be very, very high. You could almost say they move together. The industrial production index shown here moves very similarly to the stock market. First of all, even if we look into what industrial production is later, through examples, let's think about what results we can expect when we invest based on this. Let's say there are two people, Mr. Kim and Ms. Nada, who invested in the 1960s. They studied and were convinced that industrial production and the stock market show a very similar trend over the long term. So, during the period when industrial production is increasing...

When investing in stocks and the industrial production is slowing down, I set a principle to sell stocks and increase cash holdings. At first, we invest together. However, since the early 1960s, despite the stock market declining continuously, industrial production has been rising. This trend continues into the mid-1960s, where the stock market falls but industrial production keeps increasing. Mr. Kim, first, due to the steady growth in industrial production, holds onto stocks whether the stock market temporarily declines or not. Only when industrial production begins to slow down significantly, he starts increasing the cash holdings for risk management. On the other hand, Mr. Na believes that when the stock market temporarily declines, industrial production should also decrease, but there are mismatches where it continues to rise. These mismatched segments occur exactly 100%.

If you cannot predict the stock market, oh well, I won't use this anymore. I no longer trust industrial production and look for a way to predict the stock market 100%. After 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 70 years, the results are obvious. When it is clear that the green eggs hit the bottom and start to rise, you buy, and when industrial production keeps rising but the rate of increase starts to flatten out, you sell stocks. If you had cashed out at that time, you would see that ultimately, you made a good deal. On the other hand, what about people like me, who are short-term traders? In the 1960s stock market, there were several periods where it deviated. Unable to endure such situations, they discard good methods with high success rates and look for something amazing, a way to predict the stock market 100%, only to end up wandering around in reality.

There is no indicator that can predict the stock market, whether it's economic indicators or investment methods, with 100% accuracy, even down to the smallest movements. Economic indicators like industrial production and long-term charts of the stock market do not always align with every movement in the market. Sometimes they show diverging trends. However, over time, it can be understood that investing based on these economic indicators can lead to very good decision-making at the right time. So, instead of trading at all, wouldn't it be better to do swing trading? You may ask questions like, why not just hold on during these downturns instead of buying or selling based on industrial production reports. If you have been in the stock market for a long time, you will experience economic downturns and even go through market crashes.

It will happen in 2008, the financial crisis. If you look at the long-term chart for the past 70 years, it's just like a passing adjustment. You might think it's just a matter of waiting a few years. You might wonder why people find it difficult to invest like this, but in reality, it's completely different in practice. The picture shows the stock market in 2008, including almost all large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics. Of course, small and medium-cap stocks are the same. At that time, with a lower limit of -1%, most stocks entered the lower limit. Days like these don't end in a few months like during the corona era. When it seemed likely to rebound, bad news would come out again, causing a lower limit or a crash, and then when it seemed to rebound again, another crash would follow, repeating for more than a year, leading to a long-term decline in the stock market. If you wonder how much people were scared at that time,

Never meet people who invest in stocks. Women deeply appreciate men who invest in stocks. As time goes by, you must have realized the significant difference between looking at long-term charts and actual trading. Let's go back to industrial production and stock market charts. Industrial production is the value obtained by calculating the actual production quantity of manufacturing, mining, electricity, utilities, etc., without reflecting inflation based on 2017 as 100. Ultimately, an increase in industrial production means that there is an actual increase in demand in industries such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities, leading to a rapid increase in production. In this phase, when the quantity of sales of companies' products or services increases, the actual production quantity increases significantly, naturally resulting in a sharp increase in sales and profits, leading to a rise in the stock market. Conversely,

The slowdown and decline in industrial production mean that actual sales quantities are slowing down or even decreasing. If this happens, it reveals practical issues that companies have been facing due to inflation that was not visible before. These practical issues that business owners are aware of are directly reflected in the factory operating rates. Let's think from the perspective of business owners. After the coronavirus in 2020, if a product that used to sell one unit per month starts selling two units the next month, and then three units the following month, showing a continuous increase in demand, the sales volume rapidly increases. So, from the perspective of businesses, should they just let the demand increase without making any preparations? There are global competitors. We are not only selling in Korea; nowadays, we compete with products from all over the world. However, even if the demand is increasing like this, if we do not prepare, oh, our...

I can't make it. If you are stubborn, you will lose market share to other competitors. So, you need to quickly build production facilities and bring in production equipment to somehow meet the production quantity. You need to roll up your sleeves when the water comes in. But, if you have been investing in facilities, thinking that sales will continue to increase, but the actual sales volume does not increase at some point, what should you do? Should you stockpile? Stockpiling is disadvantageous for companies in many ways and can eat into profits. If done incorrectly, it can be a factor that leads to the company's failure during an economic downturn. In that case, the only solution is to reduce production quantity. Of course, companies have taken out a lot of loans for investment in production facilities, bought land, built factories, hired people, and other fixed costs have increased significantly, but they have no choice but to reduce production volume even by reducing factory operating rates.

It's inevitable, so if you look at the picture, you will see that the operating rate of U.S. factories is gradually decreasing. And if you look at the production of green industries, you will see that the production volume is not increasing anymore during the same period, but instead, it is slowly decreasing, showing this stagnant appearance. So, if you look at these periods where the operating rate of U.S. factories is decreasing and the production quantity cannot increase, if we take a recent look, before COVID-19 in 2020, the operating rate was low in 2019, then COVID-19 broke out. Even before the debt crisis originating from China erupted in 2016, the operating rate decreased. Also, before the 2008 financial crisis, the operating rate decreased as well, and before the collapse of the IT bubble in 2000, the operating rate decreased. Furthermore, during the savings and loan crisis in 1991 when the economy was in recession.

As expected, the operating rate continued to decrease. Before the Black Monday in 1987 and before the benchmark interest rate surged by 20% in 1981, the operating rate of American factories was also declining. When the operating rate starts to drop first, it indicates a very high probability of an economic slowdown or recession occurring next. In this way, when the factory operating rate drops due to significant fixed investments by companies, the profit margin of the companies can only decrease significantly. If done incorrectly, it could lead to losses, and in that case, companies naturally cannot expand their investment in such times. They have to significantly reduce investment facilities and cut employment because labor costs are high. Therefore, they have to lay off many employees, reduce advertising expenses, and so on. When these things spread throughout society, it leads to an overall economic slowdown and recession. That's why companies

We have greatly increased our facilities investment, but in a situation where we cannot further increase production volume, the actual production of green industries is stagnating. In a phase where production is stagnant, we need to be very cautious. However, in such a phase, how will the sales of companies appear externally? It seems very good as they hit record-high sales. This is because even if sales volume remains stable, consumer prices continue to rise due to the stagnation in sales volume. As consumer prices increase, product prices go up. Even if 10 units were sold last year and the same this year, with a 3% increase in consumer prices, increasing product prices by 3% would result in a 3% increase in sales. However, as fixed costs such as facilities investment have increased significantly, raw material prices have risen, especially due to the substantial increase in labor costs in the era of inflation, companies' costs have increased significantly.

The profit margin decreases. This phenomenon is most notably seen in the consumer goods giant, Nike. For example, every year, as inflation is factored in, the revenue continues to increase. However, costs such as raw materials and labor also increase. If the sales volume keeps increasing steadily, then it may seem that inflation or rising labor costs would not matter. But that's not the case. Consequently, companies inevitably try to increase profits through discount promotions. When discounts are offered, the sales volume may increase, leading to an increase in revenue. However, the profit margin decreases. When various factors like these combine, despite the continuous increase in revenue, operating profits decrease every year, leading to a significant drop in stock prices. This pattern has been repeating in the past as well.

It appeared. Mainly in this green industry, there are periods where production no longer increases but stagnates or declines. Despite this, in the stock market, expectations always rise at such final stages, or for some other reason, stock prices always soar at the very end. You can see a pattern where green industrial production stagnates and this trend repeats itself. So, how about industrial production and the stock market as of June 2024? As shown in the graph, industrial production is entering a phase of gradual slowdown. The actual production volume is slowing down. However, the stock market, indicated by the red line, is showing a rebound instead. This is because investments and funds are flowing into industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, data centers, cloud computing, and servers. Although overall industrial production is slowing down and factory operating rates are also declining, on the other hand, in the field of artificial intelligence-related industries.

Server and cloud computing, which are related to data centers, are showing an increasing trend in production in this industry. This trend is leading the stock market. However, when all industries in a country rise and grow together, it lasts longer and has a good momentum. When the overall economy is good, at that time, the data center and artificial intelligence industries can also rise synergistically. On the other hand, in the current world where overall industrial production is slowing down, if only industries related to green artificial intelligence, servers, and data centers are on the rise, leading the overall stock market and economy, it would be difficult for a specific industry to lead all industries in the country alone. Therefore, it is uncertain how far this sprint, similar to a leap, will go. But one thing is for sure, the entire sky world.

If industrial production starts to rise again, the shock in the stock market may not be significant because industries such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and servers, which used to run alone, are now running together, providing strength. This will improve the stock market, reduce the burden, and potentially lead to overall growth. On the other hand, if the industrial production of the green artificial intelligence server and data center industry, which used to lead alone, is adjusted downward, it could result in a significant drop in the stock market. This is because the last support that prevented the overall economic downturn has collapsed. The economic trends seen through general news and many objective economic indicators differ significantly. News tends to exaggerate small matters, so it is necessary to speak in a balanced manner to avoid high traffic.

Because they can occur and also carry advertisements,
the media will talk to you about very stimulating short-term trends.
On the other hand, the financial expert will explain long-term trends,
allowing for a more objective and clear understanding. Of course,
if you are a short-term trader, these trends may not be important at all.
However, many people have jobs and livelihoods. They cannot always
be in front of a computer every day, watching the stock market,
making stop-loss and take-profit decisions. It's not a place only
for full-time investors who can always focus on the stock market.
If many of you are in an environment where you have to invest in the
medium to long term, eventually, I think there should be at least
one person who can talk about these situations. Therefore,
I believe that there should be someone who can objectively explain
the industrial production index announced in June, as well as issues
related to the current economic trends.

I have mentioned what hints our stock market should get. I hope it has been helpful for your investment decisions. On this channel, there are people who watch the videos and sincerely support by donating intermittently. I have had moments where I just said thank you to those who donated. After that, I felt it was simply not right as a human being, so I am communicating. It's not something extraordinary, but you can see reactions to donations. We discuss macroeconomics, industry cycles, and topics related to stocks while communicating. We have time to communicate on these topics along with movements in the aquarium. Since it's difficult to discuss sensitive topics on the show, those who support us, please continue to support us daily so we can have time to communicate. Starting from 2019, I began YouTube.

But unfortunately, in 2019, when the economic indicators started to weaken, I advocated for liquidation. That YouTube channel, which was not filtered out, received a lot of harsh criticism. Listening to such things was quite frustrating. After the outbreak of COVID-19 and the stock market plummeted, it was not so bad. However, if COVID-19 hadn't happened, I might have continued to endure unbearable insults. This is because among profitable risky assets, there is a 50-50 chance. Therefore, realizing half of the profits and moving them to bond assets to prepare for potential risks, while keeping the remaining half of the assets as they are, to avoid being excluded from the rise in the event of a trade agreement being reached. Now, as expectations have risen significantly, it is advisable to realize some profits from US and emerging market assets and prepare for the next situation. So, as you asked, in 2020, when COVID-19 broke out...

I mentioned several times to buy at the low point around March or April. But if you keep mentioning that you have some cash and ask who wants to kill you by buying in this market crash, you will end up getting a lot of curses. Market crashes like this have always happened, and as time passes, the issues have been resolved. However, the economy has continued to grow, and more money has flowed into the market. Eventually, the problem will be solved, and those who waited will make money. I always say to buy stocks. I'm not always optimistic. Even during this downturn, with the market being so good in December and January, why did you buy bonds? I had to deal with sarcastic comments like this. You're lying.

There are people who are doing it, so it's impossible to manipulate. I've even disclosed actual account management details for verification. And now, how is it? In this recent market decline, I have been making split purchases, and I am still in the process of split purchases. As usual, I see a lot of sarcastic comments saying that I am still too positive. In 2022, in March, April, and May, I made a lot of profits, so let's cash out a bit. When I suggested this, I received a lot of criticism, so since then, the comments have been negative. However, recently, the stock price has surged significantly. It has risen a lot, even beyond the highest point in December of last year. If you look at it now, most of the price range from last December has been reached. Starting from 2020, I openly started investing in tech stocks, but recently, the pace of interest rate hikes has been accelerating.

Due to inflation, we have decided that from this year to next year, we should realize profits once and cash them out. This is our current policy. However, the stock price movements vary for each individual stock, as well as the issues and contents within them. Therefore, rather than uniformly selling everything when the interest rate is 2.4%, each stock has its own price that one considers and there are issues to consider. If you have received about a 20% premium, and you think it's the peak, then cash out once between this year and next year. If it drops, we'll start over and continue like this. This is our current direction. Now, there is an issue. For ASML and NVIDIA, if interest rates rise too high, what happens? Companies need to borrow money, but if the loan interest rates increase, it becomes difficult to invest. Consequently, the performance of these companies may also deteriorate.

That's what it is, so if the interest rate rises too quickly until next year, a cycle could end, and it may be necessary to organize. This is what I'm saying. How was 2022? I also planned to sell in portions, but due to a sudden drop, I couldn't sell and got stuck. Therefore, in 2023, when the expectation of the Fed lowering the interest rate increases, that's when the stock market rebounds, and that's when you should sell. I don't know how much criticism I faced when I mentioned this. I expected the point where the interest rate hikes would stop to be around the first half or maybe the second half of this year, but now there are too many variables, so it keeps getting delayed. Therefore, around next year, this is becoming a common topic among many experts. Anyway, when that time comes, there might be a rebound, but historically, it has repeated like this.

There has been a lot of history, so the probability is high. When the rebound comes, I plan to tidy up a lot. Currently, the actual economy has passed its peak and is slowing down. At such times, when inflation decreases and the standard interest rate hike is halted, there is a misunderstanding. I have been showing indicators continuously, but there have been many instances in history where the stock market has shown temporary rallies. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the stock market will gather an upward trend. However, this is not the right timing for active buying. That's not the principle. It's the same in 2023. As the real economy leading indicators are slowing down, be cautious at this time. I keep emphasizing this, but the stock market did not crash in 2013. Despite that, it has been heavily criticized until now.

항상 기업들이 사상최대 매출을 달성 할때 갑자기 주식시장이 폭락 한다 그 이유는?? 그렇다면 지금은??

피셔인베스트

경제 지표와 주식 시장은 장기적으로 높은 신뢰도를 보이며, 산업 생산은 주식 시장과 밀접하게 반영됩니다.

가끔 차이가 나긴 하지만 이러한 지표를 바탕으로 투자하면 좋은 의사결정을 내릴 수 있습니다.

단기 트레이더는 주식 시장의 일시적인 편차로 인해 어려움을 겪는 경우가 많지만 경제 지표를 기반으로 장기 투자하는 것이 유리할 수 있습니다.

산업 생산이 주식 시장에 미치는 영향

2008년의 주식 시장 폭락은 장기 차트 예측과 달리 장기 하락으로 이어졌습니다.

산업 생산이 증가하면 수요와 수익성 증가를 의미하고, 둔화하면 실질적인 문제를 반영하여 하락으로 이어질 수 있기 때문에 산업 생산은 주식 시장 성과를 주도하는 데 중요한 역할을 합니다.

글로벌 경쟁으로 인해 기업은 수요 증가에 신속하게 대응해야 하지만, 잘못 대응하면 막대한 시설 투자에도 불구하고 생산량을 줄여야 할 수도 있습니다.

공장 가동률 하락이 경제에 미치는 영향

미국 공장의 가동률은 역사적으로 경기 침체와 불황이 발생하기 전에 감소하여 기업의 수익과 투자가 감소했습니다.

녹색 산업의 생산량은 정체되어 있지만, 소비자 물가 상승으로 인해 기업의 매출은 사상 최고치를 기록하는 것처럼 보일 수 있습니다.

그러나 인건비, 원자재 등의 비용 증가는 이익률 감소로 이어져 기업은 할인 프로모션에 의존할 수밖에 없고, 결국 주가가 하락하게 됩니다.

산업 생산은 둔화되고 있지만 AI, 생명공학, 데이터 센터, 클라우드 컴퓨팅, 서버에 대한 투자 증가로 주식 시장은 반등하고 있습니다.

전반적인 경제 성장은 불확실하며, 주식 시장은 친환경 AI, 서버, 데이터 센터 산업에 크게 의존하고 있습니다.

이 부문의 산업 생산이 크게 감소하면 주식 시장이 크게 하락할 수 있고, 반대로 증가하면 전반적인 성장으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

YouTube 채널이 주식 투자에 미치는 영향

이 유튜버는 거시경제, 산업 사이클, 주식 관련 주제에 대해 논의하는 동시에 수족관의 움직임을 보여줍니다.

이 채널은 코로나19가 발생하기 전에 청산을 옹호하고 2020년 시장 폭락기에 저점에서 매수를 제안했다는 이유로 혹독한 비판에 직면했습니다.

부정적인 댓글에도 불구하고 이 유튜버는 2022년에 수익을 올렸지만 그 이후 주가가 급등했지만 현금화를 제안했다는 이유로 비판을 받았습니다.

금리 환경 변화에 따른 주식 관리 전략

개별 주식은 약 20% 프리미엄이 붙었을 때 매도하고, 가격이 하락하면 다시 매수하고 금리가 너무 빨리 오르면 정리할 계획입니다.

발표자는 주식 시장이 반등할 때 매도할 계획이며, 과거 패턴에 비추어 높은 확률을 예상하지만 현재 경기 침체기에는 적극적인 매수를 주장하지 않습니다.

비판에도 불구하고 발표자는 실물경제 지표가 둔화됨에 따라 주의를 강조하면서도 주식시장의 잠재적인 상승 추세를 예상합니다.