부동산 시장 인사이트: 현재 동향 및 위험 탐색

부동산 투자자는 금리 변동에 따른 위험과 기회 사이의 균형을 유지하면서 신중하게 시장에 접근해야 합니다.

### 부동산 시장 탐색하기 금리, 부동산 거래 및 투자 전략에 대한 인사이트
* 🏡 "세상에서 가장 위대한 진리는 자유"라며 **부동산 시장에서 개인적인 해답**을 찾는 것이 중요하다고 강조했습니다.
* 📉 금리가 하락할 가능성이 있는 상황에서 많은 예비 주택 구매자들은 **현재 부동산 시장의 추세**를 고려할 때 지금 구매해야 할지, 아니면 기다려야 할지 고민하고 있습니다.
* 💰 박훈 부동산 수석전문위원은 금리가 자산 가격에 큰 영향을 미치는데, **서울의 아파트 금리는 이미 대출 금리가 반영**됐을 수 있지만 다른 부동산은 여전히 변동이 있을 수 있다고 지적합니다.
* 📊 최근 통계에 따르면 서울의 거래량이 급증하여 **7월 거래량이 8,000건을 돌파**할 것으로 보이며, 이전 최저치인 700건에도 불구하고 시장 균형을 유지하고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 🔍 시장이 **가격 상승과 거래량 증가**를 경험하면서 지속적인 회복보다는 정점에 가까워지고 있음을 시사할 수 있으므로 주의가 필요합니다.
* 🏠 부동산 교체를 고려하는 경우, 시장 가격 상승에 따른 위험을 완화하기 위해 **구매하기 전에 먼저 매도**하는 것이 좋습니다.
* 🧠 시장 변동으로 인한 스트레스는 의사 결정과 재무 안정성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로 **투자에 대한 자신의 심리적 준비 상태**를 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🌍 궁극적으로 잠재적 구매자는 시장의 압력에 굴복하기보다는 실용적인 전략에 집중하면서 **다양한 투자 기회에 열려 있는 장기적인 관점**을 가져야 합니다.

The greatest truth in the world is freedom. If you really need it, I strongly advise you to go to the field and find the answers yourself. This has become a popular saying of mine lately. When I say this, answers emerge. I was talking with Park Hoon, the chief real estate expert at KB Real Estate, and I want to ask him about how to secure a home. Many people who are contemplating whether to buy a home are currently focused on the fact that interest rates seem to be on the verge of being lowered. As a result, they might be wondering if they should buy before the interest rates drop or wait to see the rates before making a purchase. Given your extensive experience in the real estate market, what are your thoughts on the current trend of rising interest rates and the possibility of them declining again?

I'm curious about what other effects the real estate market is experiencing. Interest rates are a very important measure in the market; they are the gravity of all asset prices, as is textbook theory. I believe that interest rates for apartments in Seoul have already been factored in. You might recall that the loan interest rate has dropped to around 2%, so expectations have likely already been significantly incorporated into the prices. If interest rates were to decrease further, I think it would have more of an impact on areas that have been less affected until now, such as apartments in the metropolitan area, regional apartments, or non-apartment properties like villas, multi-family homes, commercial buildings, and land. This is because the expectations for interest rate cuts have not yet been reflected in those areas.

Some of the children who are slightly reflected become somewhat dull, while those who are not reflected seem to have an increase in transactions. As you mentioned, the U.S. is expected to lower rates starting from September, which has almost become a given. That seems to be correct. So, there's talk about whether it will be three times or four times, but that doesn't quite add up either. However, we at KBS have a view on the current Korean base rate. It's currently at 3.5%, and we are expecting it to drop to around 3.25% by the end of the year, and about 2.75% by the end of next year. So, we can say that it is significantly decreasing. Of course, the interest rate varies depending on the survey timing, but looking at past papers, based on the interest rate's lag, usually, according to data from the Korea Real Estate Board or KB...

There is a market trend that affects about 60%. This means that the overall opportunity accounts for about 60%. However, it appears that my estimate is around 46%. Nevertheless, I want to emphasize that interest rates can significantly change the landscape. The question is whether we will return to extremely low interest rates like in the past; generally, that doesn't seem likely. If we enter a mid-interest rate era, as Howard Marks has mentioned, we should carefully observe the market and be cautious about any sudden spikes in response to interest rate cuts. Therefore, recent short-term surges in prices can be viewed as a reflection of these interest rates and other factors already being factored in. I believe we need to approach this with caution.

In the past, the opening of the Shinbundang Line and the recent GTX line are quite similar. There was a principle known as the Samsung Law, which refers to the unknowns at the stages of development, announcement, construction, and completion. I haven't seen many cases like that. When the Shinbundang Line was opened, house prices actually plummeted, which is a different story. In the case of jeonse (a Korean rental system), when transportation improves, prices tend to rise. However, in terms of sales, there is a tendency for people to react impulsively, which can lead to sudden fluctuations in prices. Therefore, caution is needed in this regard. However, I don't think there will be a drastic drop. In some areas, we might see an increase in listings or a slight rise in prices, so it would be wise to keep an eye on the situation.

Recently, the trading volume has been sharply increasing, hasn't it? In the past, the average for the last ten years was around 6,000 transactions in Seoul, but there were times when it dropped to 2,000 or even 700 transactions. Because of the lack of transactions, many people said there wouldn't be any price increases. However, now we see both price increases and a supporting trading volume. This means that there is a balance in the market. Having a lot of transactions is not necessarily a good thing; when trading spikes at the bottom, it is a very positive sign. Right? Some might say that this means that cheap properties are selling. In that case, the market is strengthening and rising. In the stock market, there's a saying about trading peaks. Last August, the trading volume for apartments in Seoul was the highest ever. Of course, it doesn't compare to now, but at that time, the trading...

It was a situation where, if recovery occurs and transactions significantly increase, you need to approach it with caution. In Seoul, the transaction volume in July likely exceeded 8,000 cases, while the historical average is around 640. In Gyeonggi Province, it's also about 1,000 cases, whereas the historical average is less than 12,000. Considering the current transaction volume, it is quite high. So, if the transaction volume surges, you should be cautious about that. Of course, when looking at real estate, you shouldn't rely on just one indicator, but if transactions increase, you might think that the market is finally becoming active. However, you shouldn't overlook the possibility that this could be approaching a peak. I think it's important to keep that in mind. As you mentioned earlier, last September, there was a sudden and sharp decline in transactions.

Last year, there were regulations on loans, and people are saying that this year, they won't just let things run rampant like that. When I look at the impact of loan regulations on the commercial loan market, the situation in the metropolitan area is more severe than in rural areas. Commercial loans continue to increase. In basic terms, if loans are not available in Seoul and the metropolitan area, and if the lending tightens, the market will slightly cool down. So, I wonder how the government will handle that. The side effects of loan regulations aren't too significant because, although there has been a recent tightening, the total amount of commercial loans in South Korea has decreased relative to GDP. However, we are still in a situation where we need to watch out for potential pitfalls. I wonder if the government will just leave things as they are, especially since the market could suddenly surge.

If we throw it away, the dissatisfaction among non-homeowners will increase. They have clearly stated that they will provide more supply, but if the market continues to heat up, I believe there will be sufficient measures to cool down the demand. That is the role of the government. While we cannot predict the future of the market entirely, it seems wise to take a step back and observe coldly when things get overheated. Especially for the MG generation, from what I've observed, they are particularly strong in feeling FOMO (fear of missing out). Since they are familiar with social media and the internet, they tend to compare themselves endlessly through mobile devices. When our friends buy homes, it often seems like they are buying at the peak of the market. So when I talk about the peak now, rather than giving advice, I tend to lean towards going further.

In watching this, each neighborhood is different. Because of the irregularities, it's risky to just grab any property that a homeowner puts on the market. You should always consider the price and the surrounding area’s market trends. Since there are currently few listings, if you’re not careful, you could end up buying at the peak. It's advisable to approach this with caution. 

These days, many people are looking to switch properties, which seems to be increasing the transaction volume. When people sell and then buy, the transaction volume effectively doubles. However, there are discussions about neighborhoods that are experiencing sudden short-term price surges. For instance, when I want to sell and buy, some people are reluctant to sell, and suddenly, I find myself in a situation where I can't sell my property at all.

There are people who are considering switching properties right now. If you're thinking about doing that, should you sell after an accident? If you sell first and then buy, there's a risk of becoming a homeowner without a property. Experienced investors often buy and sell, as they can sell within three years. However, I think beginners might be better off selling first and then buying. This is based on the principle of selling first and then buying. In a situation where the market is rapidly rising, switching properties can be really risky. It can be a way to secure your own home, but it is dangerous. 

From my experience, it's like throwing a party on a stormy day. The waves are huge, and it feels like you're exposing yourself directly to the risks. So what should you do? There are two options. One is to follow the principle of selling first and then buying, as I mentioned earlier.

I think it's lower, so it's a bit safer. It's about buying and selling, right? You need to minimize the time spent buying. You should shorten it as much as possible; doing it almost simultaneously would be the best. I'm saying you should do it simultaneously. I say this: don't joke around. You never know how suddenly the market might change. So, when I make a selling contract at 10 AM, I have to go buy at 2 PM. The market is smarter than I am. But then, what happens is, let's say I sold and signed the contract, but when I go at 2 PM, they say they won't sell. Then the price goes up by 10 million won, and I'm frustrated, so I decide not to contract and turn away. In that case, I find myself in limbo. If I cancel the contract, I lose another 10%. To prepare for such situations, I sell my shares, and when buying, I should have at least a few candidates in mind.

You should have about three options available. You need to secure three so that if this person suddenly decides not to sell, I can go and buy elsewhere. If I keep about that many options open, I can probably buy one of them. So, think of the buying and selling period as happening on the same day. Secondly, don’t fixate on just one item to buy; keep about three options open. This way, I probably won’t experience a sudden panic or confusion in the middle. I want to suggest this approach. Isn’t it also possible to write a purchase contract at 10 AM and then a sale contract at 2 PM? This way, you might feel a bit more at ease. If I push the sale to the afternoon after signing the contract, of course, there is the possibility that the buyer might suddenly change their mind and decide not to buy. That is a variable, but you can still go ahead with that. In any case, then I would definitely go back and confirm the amount of 50 million won.

If you ask to lower the price, the seller might get upset and refuse to negotiate. There are people who suddenly decide not to buy anymore. However, the basic principle is that it's generally better to buy first and sell later. That's my opinion; you can do it your own way, but I prefer to be a bit more cautious because this is the biggest shopping decision of your life. You can't treat it like buying a computer. We're talking about tens of millions of won at stake, so it's safer to proceed with caution. There are cases where people buy a house, and then suddenly a loan doesn't come through, or things get tangled up, resulting in losing their deposit. I've seen many people like that around me. For those who have deposits that are roughly equivalent to two years of savings, once they make a purchase, they might find themselves waking up in a panic for about five years. The trauma lasts longer than you might think.

So, as much as possible, let's be a bit safe and approach this as if we're walking carefully. It would be best if we could time it perfectly, but we should always keep in mind that it might not work out, so if we make conservative judgments, we can set a standard. Earlier, you mentioned something about products, but when it comes to buying a house, we often say that we need to do a lot of legwork. However, these days, if you try to do that, you often find that there are no listings available, or all the properties have been taken. This situation seems to make people a bit anxious, especially since we see instances where multiple people are lined up to view a single property. So, I’d like to ask, what should we be cautious about when doing our legwork? What aspects should we pay attention to? Honestly, there isn't a magical method, so to speak, but I think...

Ultimately, there is a mismatch, you know? In other words, there must be some concept or plan that I had in mind. But when it goes in an unexpected direction, how do we come up with a response to that? From that perspective, I think we need to broaden our scope. We shouldn't get fixated on just one thing; instead, we should approach it like shopping. For example, I can find the same item in different places, like at Rodeo Drive or at a discount store. There may be different benefits at each place, and some might even have sales while others don’t. Similarly, apartments are standardized products, so we shouldn’t try to do everything all at once. For those who are buying their first home, I believe it’s better to keep a wider perspective. So, I often say that in a neighborhood, there are about ten options.

Set a reasonable target. Try to aim for about 30 apartments. This means you might not need to consider actual residence too much. You can just move in, right? And here's what you can do: I think many people are too anxious. They think they will live there for a lifetime, and they really can't shake that thought. I believe you don't have to think that way. As I have lived, I have started to earn some money, and over time, I will move to another place. Before marriage and before having kids, school districts may not matter much, but as the child grows and it's time for school, your perspective changes. Then you will move again. So, I want to emphasize that when you're buying your first home, you should definitely focus on larger complexes. Since you won't be living there for a long time, you can live there for a while, and later on, when your finances improve...

As time goes on, I find myself thinking about moving to another place. I don't mean to imply that I'm frequently buying and selling for investment purposes, but rather, after living somewhere for about four to five years, I start to consider relocating. When that time comes, I can sell my current place and move elsewhere. After about four to five years, new thoughts arise, such as changing jobs or other factors that can influence my decision. While it's not a bad idea to settle in a specific neighborhood or apartment, I prefer to keep my options open and be flexible. For example, if I need a home, I might consider living in Yeouido. Initially, anyone would want to move to a nice place, especially if they're high earners. However, instead of committing to one location, I think about the possibility of moving again. For instance, my husband or wife might want to relocate to a different area.

When giving birth, one might move to a new home or relocate to a nearby area. As the child grows, families may also move in pursuit of better school districts. While not everyone experiences this, there are many variable factors to consider. Therefore, it seems a bit mismatched to buy an overly expensive home from the start, thinking one will live there for a lifetime, especially in a nomadic society like today. What I want to convey is that rather than being overly fixated on a specific area or apartment from the beginning, it might be better to aim for something around B quality instead of A quality. You can buy that and, after some time, consider moving to another location. Those who are overly principled or excessively meticulous may find it difficult to buy a home right now. So, I urge you to adopt a more flexible mindset that aligns with reality.

You need to put in some effort, as I mentioned earlier. There are urgent sales everywhere; it's just that I can't find them. That's why I keep telling you to be diligent. When you go to the field, as you know well, there are many opportunities. Good properties are sometimes hidden by mid-sized business owners. So, I advise you not to sit at your desk but to go out and find answers. To secure your own home, you also need to put in some hard work. In the current situation, can everything be solved just by waiting? It might be somewhat possible during a downturn, but during an upturn, you really need to move quickly. Recently, I've noticed something interesting: about a year ago, there were many people saying that buying a house would lead to failure. Now, it seems that people are investing in stocks or...

There has been a lot of talk about investing in cryptocurrencies, but recently, it's also been said that cryptocurrencies are not good, and stocks are not doing well either. So, people are saying that real estate is the best option. There are also some opinions praising real estate. Ultimately, real estate is a necessity, and since it makes up a significant portion of assets, everyone is contemplating their choices. The question is whether it's better to invest a lot in just one property or to diversify across various investments. I want to suggest that we should stand on the shoulders of giants and look at the world from a broader perspective. My stance hasn’t changed: I believe the proportion of real estate investments should be kept below 50%. I maintain this view. However, how can one immediately reduce their real estate investment to below 50%? If I take out a loan to buy a house, my real estate proportion might be around 140%. So, don’t do that. Instead, plan for the next ten years.

Given the current situation, it seems appropriate to reduce the proportion of real estate investments. We need to clearly observe the current trends, but we keep focusing only on the pain points. If we look further ahead, the trend is shifting from local to global, from real estate to finance, and from face-to-face interactions to non-face-to-face interactions. Real estate is a local, face-to-face asset. It seems reasonable to decrease the share of real estate when looking at the overall trend. While older generations can be described as the real estate monopoly generation or real estate addiction generation, the current generation is not addicted to real estate. I see them as more inclined toward investment addiction. Therefore, it would be beneficial to broaden our perspective globally. For young people, especially those living in rural areas, the way to build wealth is not through real estate or apartments. I encourage those interested in finance to study global finance, while real estate should be limited to just apartments.

Don't focus too much on studying the details, just consider apartments. Instead, it's better to allocate your time to broader perspectives on asset distribution. I want to share this thought with you. Remember when we talked to CEO Jung last time? I still recall that conversation. We discussed how, aside from apartments, everything else should ideally be allocated to global financial assets. While that's the theoretical approach, the reality is different. Real estate is different; it's a hard asset. Hard assets, even in a typhoon, won't just disappear. Financial assets, on the other hand, are paper assets. When a storm hits, they can vanish completely. This is because they are subject to high price volatility and can't withstand it. Just look at what happened during Black Monday; many people...

There are many people who probably didn't want to sell their assets out of their own will, but ended up doing so. They might wonder if they have the confidence to endure the stress of price fluctuations. This is something they need to research psychologically. Recently, I've seen many such individuals through blogs and YouTube. Some have sold their entire homes and invested in dividend stocks or American stocks, like Tesla or Nvidia. They claim that even when there was a market crash, they didn't sell, boasting about it. Personally, I feel like my hair would fall out under such stress; I couldn't handle it. Therefore, I believe that aside from financial literacy or real estate knowledge, one should also consider psychological traits. That's why I mentioned that there are people who are quite free from the stress of price fluctuations.

이 무드한 분들은 그렇잖아요. 그리고 굉장히 우상향에 대한 믿음이 강하신 분들, 이런 분들은 저는 오히려 부동산보다는 금융 쪽으로 가셔야 된다고 생각합니다. 거기도 고수익이 있죠. 그런데 그렇지 않고, 내 마음이 나도 모르고 하루에도 생각이 오락가락 하시는 분들, 제가 약간 초대하는 스타일인데, 살랑대는 사람은 처음 먹은 생각을 폭락이 오면 이겨내지 못하고 흘러내려버립니다. 이게 팔고 나야 그로부터 해방되는 거라고 생각하거든요. 멘탈 게임에서 과연 내가 이길 자신이 있느냐는 부분에 대해서 스스로 한번 테스트를 해보셔야 돼요. 그래서 제가 많은 분들이 그런 유명한 펀드 매니저나 아니면 우리나라에서 유명한 그런 분들을 따라가지 못하는 가장 큰 이유가 불안을 못 견디기 때문이에요. 밤잠을 설친다, 말이에요.

Because of that, if things go wrong, you can get shingles. However, most people tend to forget that part, and they often idolize figures who are, in a sense, role models. It's fine to do that, but I believe it's important to first understand yourself and find your own investment patterns. This is a thought I've been having lately. Know yourself and carry your own patterns forward. I want to emphasize this. For those with a generally weak mindset, real estate is somewhat more forgiving, right? The losses are relatively less severe. The thought is that if you go in, you can live there. So, I’ll mention two things. Research shows that, despite stocks having much higher returns, apartments, in a way, are...

Generally, the profits are low. Despite this, the pain from losses is greater in stocks than in real estate. This is because, in the long term, stocks may experience losses initially but eventually rise again. People feel this directly, and I have seen many cases where they cannot handle the stress that comes with it. 

Another point I want to make is that real estate, as you mentioned earlier, is fundamentally a living space. Recently, I wrote something about how people who bought houses at high prices are likely to suffer, while those who sold their homes at low prices might also feel the pain. However, it seems that the ones who sold at a lower price are the ones who are truly suffering. Last year, I taught a class on real estate, and one thing we discussed was that no one is free from their circumstances. Everyone feels like if they don't buy a house, they are the only fools.

In a way, it's difficult to buy a house in this panic buying process, especially for someone who is not well off. The power of this situation is truly frightening. This time, even a lawyer bought a property worth 1.1 billion won with a loan of 950 million won. People who are smarter than me, who graduated from better universities, and who have better jobs all ended up buying at the peak. So, it's not your fault. Just think of it as one of the passages in your life; consider it as an experience. Now, forgive yourself. While I was thinking this, I wrote a healing song about a poodle. The book hasn’t been published yet because I realized that people who bought at high prices are not suffering as much as I thought. They can see hope for the future. If things don’t work out, they can just move back in. However, the problem lies with those who sold at low prices; it takes them ten years to recover. They can’t forget that. The trauma is immense, especially for those who are very smart.

The more educated people tend to get swept up in the atmosphere and just throw things away. It seems like that's what is happening. In the end, the concept of throwing away real estate, or selling it cheaply, is usually seen as a way to distance oneself from the real estate market. So, when they sell, they move that into financial assets, but if they receive a shock there, they might feel like their assets have shrunk to less than half at some point. That's why I mentioned earlier that we shouldn't joke around with home ownership. If we look at it too casually, it can be problematic. I think it's good to have at least one home to live in, and if you're going to invest in financial assets, I would recommend that. Everyone has different ways of living; for example, selling all the apartments and investing in financial assets is also a good alternative.

I mentioned that you need to consider whether you have enough experience and whether you can endure a market crash. Do you have a strong mentality for that? Additionally, for those who are married, not having a house makes them much more anxious. You need to assess whether all these factors align. Just because someone has a sweet talk doesn't mean they become an expert overnight. I believe it's better to find a method that suits you. Unlike in the past, buying multiple properties isn't the main focus anymore. It’s not essential to own a house; you can focus on financial assets instead. I think that following a typical investment strategy and lifestyle, like most people do, is the most reasonable approach. So, without a house, you can invest in stocks.

When it comes to investing, if your know-how and mental aspects haven't been thoroughly validated, recklessly taking risks can lead to destruction. I want to emphasize the importance of rationality in this matter. Additionally, I hope you avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Now, I would like to ask about something else. Recently, as mentioned earlier, there have been instances like Black Monday where there was a sudden crash. Of course, some markets have recovered, but this has led to discussions where some claim that real estate is different. Others argue that real estate is just lagging behind, and if the financial market collapses, it will fall too. What is the reality of this situation? I believe that recently, the correlation between the two markets has become even more pronounced.

In fact, you probably know that the KOSPI fell in December 2021. Therefore, moving forward, the trend of these two assets moving together is likely to intensify. This is because apartments, which were once just living spaces, have become investment assets. From that perspective, these two markets are similar. While the stock market may temporarily diverge, in the long run, they move together as one. I would like to emphasize this point. So, when the stock market is not doing well, it’s wise to be cautious with real estate as well. However, when financial market instability affects the general real estate transaction market, I consider two factors: the intensity and duration of the shock. This year, it hasn’t affected the apartment market significantly, but if this situation continues for a long time, the transaction market will also...

It is fluctuating, so we always consider the stock market and the real estate market as a mirror reflecting the economic fundamentals of the country. Therefore, I believe that stocks and real estate should be viewed within the same category. It seems that there are some correlations with financial assets due to the significant amount of borrowing. Lastly, I think many people are looking to buy houses in the second half of the year. In fact, there are many young people around me who are asking if they should buy a house and are actively looking. It would be great if you could offer some advice to those individuals. Although the supply instability is worsening, various indicators are not very favorable. The fact is that housing prices are still high. Typically, we assess whether the market is legal or not by looking at the proportion of housing market capitalization relative to GDP.

Last year, the total market value of housing was about 2.8 times higher compared to previous years. In 2021, it was 3.2 times. Then, in 2022, it dropped a bit to three times. However, if we look back at the past, it was almost double, hovering around the early two times. For example, when Kim Ji-young's book came out in 1982, the ratio in 2016 was about 2.2 times. It is still true that it feels somewhat burdensome now. I would like to mention that we at KBS have an apartment mortgage loan. This is based on actual loans issued, and recently, there has been a slight upward trend. In January, it was about 12.6 times the income, meaning that one would buy a house based on that income. This refers to saving without spending a single penny for a year.

It took about six months, and the last quarter of last year was around 11.8 times. Of course, compared to the second quarter of 2022, which was about 14.8 times, it has decreased a bit. However, if you look back, there were many times when it didn't even reach ten times. But right now, at this moment, it's not like that. This is probably for the first quarter, and as we move into the second and third quarters, things will likely improve. So, you can see it this way: as time goes on, the risks are getting bigger. I think we should look at it from this perspective. I've also been observing both the financial market and the real estate market, and I've noticed that the search for properties seems to be more significant than expected. Therefore, I feel a bit uneasy about viewing the market too optimistically, as there are quite a few concerning aspects. In terms of our country, we have a strong foundation, and there's a saying that it’s like wallpapering.

There is a feeling that we are talking about, but global financial crises seem to occur every four years. Looking at the past, there is no guarantee that they won't happen again. Therefore, I think it's not appropriate to take too many risks or make investments. Even if you buy a house, I suggest you consume wisely. You all probably know my bestseller, The Psychology of Money. Many of you have read it, right? I remember two main points that the author made. One is that the biggest risks and the most dangerous situations we will face in the next ten years will be things that no experts or news outlets are currently mentioning. This means that unexpected events can completely shake our lives. So, this person suggests that when individuals are planning their finances, having too much savings is not ideal.

해야 할 정도까지 되어야 한다. 그래서 과도한 부채를 지는 것은 이어지지 않아야 한다는 얘기를 하는 것이다. 그래서 저는 이 방송을 아마 젊은 분들이 많이 들으실 텐데, 사는 방식은 여러 가지가 있다. 정답이 있을까요? 다만 제가 꼭 드리고 싶은 말씀은, 세상이든 부동산이든 금융 시장이든, 이러한 가변적인 불확실성이 과거보다 훨씬 더 커졌기 때문에 좀 보수적인 생각을 하고, 안전하게 살아가는 방식에 대해서 생각해 봤으면 좋겠다. 요즘 세대들은 부채를 무서워하지 않고 빚을 무서워하지 않잖아요. 어떻게 보면, 비투가 기본이고, 부채를 모르면 대출을 모르면 경작을 모르는 사람이라고 힐란할 정도로 부채주의에 빠져 있다. 돈이 없으니까 빚을 지는 것, 그걸 어떻게 하겠어요?

I would like to talk about mortgages once more. A mortgage is a loan, and it can be a bit confusing. The term mortgage comes from the French word mort, meaning death, which refers to the death of the loan obligation once it is paid off. It’s important to understand that borrowing money involves a certain level of responsibility. You need to be cautious about using other people's money.

It's also crucial not to rush into things. Having a sense of urgency to achieve everything at once can complicate your life. When it comes to financial management, it's better to build your wealth gradually rather than trying to inflate it all at once. Even if you engage in risky investments or gambling, it’s advisable to start small and gain experience before diving in deeply. 

I personally oppose the idea of trying to leap over the established generation all at once, whether it’s in stocks or real estate. So, it's important to take your time and build a solid foundation.

You need to find your own style. If the risk is so high that it keeps you up at night, it's better to play it safe. When I buy a house, I think it's unavoidable to take on about 50% of the loan in the short term. However, in the long term, I aim to keep it within 30% for more stability. A conservative person feels more at ease. Don't be too envious of others who suddenly become wealthy or successful; you should stick to your own pace. If you lose your own pace, it can lead to a much worse situation. Therefore, having your own pace and direction is quite important. That's why I keep emphasizing the importance of practical and frugal spending. I believe that this is necessary right now. There is still plenty of time to work from home, and there is also a lot of time left to live.

I will tell you this: so what do you want me to do? This becomes the key question, right? Since last year, I have been saying that you shouldn’t rely on timing. You should buy based on price merits; it varies from neighborhood to neighborhood, and timing doesn’t always align. The most important and practical answer is how to lower your purchase price. I still hold that belief. So, after autumn, when things slow down a bit, I suggest you visit the market to try to lower your price. Also, consider applying for new properties and look into auctions as well; don’t stick to just one approach. Above all, I oppose viewing real estate too critically like a commentator. Don’t get lost in discourse; instead, focus on actionable reasoning. So, pursue more practical approaches.

It is important to have a certain mindset. So, what alternatives do we have besides lowering the price of the greatest truth in the world? There is not much an individual can do. Therefore, I urge you not to just criticize like commentators or discuss academic papers. If you truly need something, go out and find the answer in the field. I often say this, and it has become a catchphrase for me: if you go, you will find the answer. If you feel that living there would make you happy, then you should buy it. If you feel excited and your heart races, then it's okay to buy it. However, if your hands are shaking from fear, then you should not buy it. If you have too much debt and your whole body is trembling, that’s not good; you need to reflect on that. What is more important than intuition is feeling, and I often say that feeling is more significant than intuition. The feelings you experience in the field are what truly matter.

Today, I had the opportunity to speak with Dr. Park and the Chief Real Estate Specialist at KB about the recent outlook and atmosphere in the real estate market, as well as what we should do moving forward. What you mentioned really resonates; ultimately, this is something that needs to be viewed in the long term. Real estate is inherently a long-term investment asset. Rather than focusing on short-term fluctuations in prices, we should consider how much we can endure and manage after making a purchase. This leads to a more cautious approach in our judgments. I would like to express my gratitude for taking the time to watch this, and I will also take a moment to say goodbye to Dr. Park. Thank you for being here today. Thank you.

"현장에 가보면 달라요" 지금 부동산 시장 분위기 [박원갑 박사 4부]

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이자율이 부동산 시장에 미치는 영향

금리는 부동산 시장의 핵심 요소로, 서울의 경우 현재 금리는 이미 아파트 가격에 반영되어 있습니다.

금리가 하락할 경우 지방 아파트와 상업용 부동산 등 영향을 덜 받는 지역에 더 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

최근 서울 아파트 시장의 거래량과 가격 상승은 시장의 균형과 잠재적 강세를 나타냅니다.

급등하는 부동산 시장에서의 주의 사항

최근 서울과 경기도의 거래량이 과거 평균치를 넘어서면서 시장 정점에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

특히 수도권을 중심으로 대출 규제가 강화되고 있어 시장이 냉각될 수 있습니다.

많은 사람들이 부동산을 갈아타며 거래량을 늘리려고 하지만, 급등하는 시장에서는 이러한 전략이 위험할 수 있습니다.

주택 구입에 대한 신중한 접근 방법

주택 구입을 위한 세 가지 옵션을 열어두면 당황하고 혼란스러워하는 상황을 피할 수 있습니다.

오전에는 구매 계약을 체결하고 오후에는 판매 계약을 체결하는 것이 보다 원활한 전환을 위해 좋습니다.

보다 넓은 시야를 가지고 여러 매물을 목표로 하면 불안감을 줄이고 향후 이사에 유연하게 대처할 수 있습니다.

이전 및 부동산 투자에 대한 고려 사항

저자는 직업 변화와 가족의 필요 등의 요인에 따라 4~5년마다 이사를 고려합니다.

주택에 대한 유연한 접근 방식을 옹호하며 A급 부동산 대신 B급 부동산을 제안하고 좋은 부동산 기회를 찾기 위해 부지런히 노력하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

또한 투자에 대한 폭넓은 관점을 장려하며 부동산이 포트폴리오의 50% 미만을 차지할 것을 권장하고 글로벌 금융 교육을 받을 것을 주장합니다.

자산 분배와 심리적 특성의 중요성

이 토론에서는 부동산과 같은 하드 자산과 금융 주식과 같은 페이퍼 자산의 차이점을 강조하면서 아파트뿐만 아니라 더 넓은 자산 분배에 초점을 맞춰야 한다고 강조합니다.

연사는 금융 자산의 높은 가격 변동성으로 인해 시장 폭락 시 스트레스를 받고 강제 매각이 발생할 수 있다고 지적합니다.

또한 자신의 심리적 특성과 투자 패턴을 이해해야 한다고 강조하며, 사고방식이 약한 사람은 주식시장 변동에 따른 스트레스에 비해 부동산이 더 관대한 선택이 될 수 있다고 말합니다.

패닉 시장에서 주택 구매의 어려움

현재 주택 시장은 어려운 상황이며, 부유한 개인조차도 최고가에 부동산을 구입하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

낮은 가격에 집을 판 사람들은 장기적인 트라우마와 회복의 어려움에 직면해 있는 반면, 높은 가격에 집을 산 사람들은 미래에 대한 희망을 찾고 있습니다.

부동산 시장과 금융 시장 간의 상관관계가 더욱 뚜렷해지고 있으며, 장기적으로는 두 시장이 함께 움직일 가능성이 높습니다.

주식과 부동산 시장은 밀접하게 연결되어 있으며, 많은 젊은이들이 주택 구입에 적극적으로 나서고 있습니다.

GDP 대비 주택 시가총액은 높지만 공급 불안정과 높은 가격이 우려되는 상황입니다.

저자는 금융 및 부동산 시장의 불확실성이 커지고 있다는 점을 강조하며 투자 및 부채 관리에 신중한 접근이 필요하다고 조언합니다.

모기지는 상환이 완료되면 채무가 소멸하는 것을 의미하는 기간의 대출입니다.

점진적으로 부를 축적하고 위험한 투자를 피하면서 재무 관리에 신중하게 접근하는 것이 중요합니다.

부동산은 장기적인 투자로 간주해야 하며, 구매 가격을 낮추고 다양한 옵션을 모색하는 등 실용적인 접근 방식이 성공을 위해 중요합니다.