부동산 시장 변동과 심리 이해하기

현재 주택 시장은 주택이 없는 사람들의 수요 증가, 대출, 잠재적인 시장 변화 등으로 혼란에 빠져 있습니다.

### 현재 부동산 시장의 복잡성 이해하기
* 😨 시청자들은 종종 부동산 시장에 대한 언론 보도에 영향을 받아 **예비 주택 구매자들 사이에서 불안감**을 느끼기도 합니다.
* 🏠 집이 없는 사람들은 **가격이 오르자 대출을 받아 집을 사려고 서두르는** 반면, 기존 주택 소유자들은 **더 낮은 가격에 팔고 싶지 않습니다.**
* 💰 현재 시장은 **실수요는 증가**하고 있지만 **투자 수요는 감소**하고 있습니다.
* 📈 차입금 증가로 인해 가격이 계속 상승함에 따라 **지속 가능한 수요는 감소**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🔍 시장 변동의 원인을 분석하고 **향후 변화를 예측**하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🏦 최근의 금리 인하 추세로 인해 **지금이 바로 대출을 받아 집을 살 때**라는 믿음이 생겼습니다.
* 🤔 그러나 현재 **집값이 합리적인지 판단**하는 것이 더 중요합니다.
* 🛑 시장 변동성이 높기 때문에 **성급한 결정을 내리지 말고 자신의 상황을 신중하게 평가**하는 것이 좋습니다.

When we see various broadcasts and reports through the media now, the housing market is also in turmoil. The number of people looking to buy houses is increasing, many are taking out loans, and news like this continues. So, when viewers see only this news, they may think the same way. From the perspective of those without a house, they might feel like they have to buy now or they will miss the opportunity. This kind of anxious thought seems to be prevalent. Therefore, in the current market situation, who are the most anxious when such content comes out psychologically? It's those without homes. So, what is being expressed in their anxiety is quickly taking out loans and buying as prices rise. Because they are anxious, they can't afford to miss out. So, those who already own a home have no intention of buying cheaply. Because now, they won't even have to pay taxes or property tax will be abolished, so they won't have the intention to sell cheaply. But

People in a hurry now are those without homes, and they are now borrowing loans to buy houses, so there are recent changes in the market. However, an interesting point is that the investment demand is decreasing. Ah, then the actual demand is increasing now. So, the actual demand can get a lot of loans in Korea. Therefore, when prices rise and trading volume increases, loans increase as well. In other words, it means that the actual demand is buying. Investment demand doesn't lend loans, so they buy with lump-sum deposits. So, statistically, the current investment demand situation is not about buying houses. Therefore, in this situation, most people who buy houses by borrowing loans are increasing their debts. So, looking at the market trend, prices are rising.

Is it true that there is vitality in the real estate market? Should we look at it that way? How should we? First of all, the trading volume is increasing, and prices are rising, so it indicates a kind of market change. The important thing is, what is the cause of the fluctuations? We need to find the cause of the fluctuations so that we can make a forecast, right? But the cause of the fluctuations is that consumers are buying by taking out loans. That's the cause of the fluctuations. But this situation is unlikely to continue. Oh, really? If they keep buying, prices will keep going up. How will they be able to afford it continuously? Well, the demand from those consumers is somewhat fixed, in terms of a percentage. Therefore, because the demand from consumers is fixed, if they keep buying with loans, it will eventually decrease. So, as prices rise, the demand that can be sustained will naturally continue to decrease. That's right. Therefore, it is highly likely that the current market changes are temporary.

That's right. Essentially, as the prices continue to rise, the demand comes from investors or speculators. But those people don't have the heart to buy now. Oh, we should watch that closely. Yes, that's why the recent increase in selling volume. Oh, should we sort this out now? Right. That's why the world is unfair. Because in 2021, there was a similar situation. People were in a hurry to buy houses, took on debt, and bought houses at high prices. But multiple homeowners sold their houses at that time. Why did they sell when the house prices were rising? They should buy more, right? So, those people are experts in investment or speculation, aren't they? They saw that it wouldn't last long. As expected by those experts, the house prices plummeted, underwent correction, and some people are struggling with debt again.

They bring out the double standards, and in 2022, those who own multiple houses bought more. But now, as things are trying to stabilize, they are saying that they will provide loans based on information and loosen regulations, so all politicians are talking about real estate taxes again. Therefore, homebuyers are taking out loans again, causing those who own multiple houses to start selling their houses. This seems to be repeating. In fact, talk of virtually abolishing comprehensive real estate tax is coming up, and the tax rate keeps decreasing. As a result, real owners are stimulated, and now when they buy, the prices have gone up a bit. Those who were investing are now at a level of sorting things out, not really investing. People who are borrowing money are now in a situation where they have to sit on it. So, for example, for investors.

People don't buy just because taxes are cut. Right, there should be an expectation of price increase to buy. Additionally, if they cut taxes and loosen regulations like this, saying that housing prices rise, people feel uneasy. It's unsettling, especially for those without homes. So, they take out loans to buy houses. If that happens, there can be anticipated results. However, one thing we can see differently is the interest rate part, right? Since they are talking about interest rate cuts, if you enter into lower interest rates, even those who bought houses by borrowing can endure it. They might think it's cheaper, so they end up paying less and think, I have my own house now. In a way, it could be seen as a better choice, don't you think? But if housing prices drop, if they drop, there won't be buyers, and without buyers, they drop.

If you keep selling and it drops, so now, so what's happening near here is a new loan called a mortgage loan. The interest rate for a home mortgage loan is 3% to 4%, but they offer it at 1%. So, they say the loan interest rate dropped by 2 points, so you should quickly get a loan and buy a house. However, for example, when you borrow 200 million won, if the interest rate drops by 2 points, it's 4 million won per year, right? But if you buy a house for 100 million or 200 million won, it becomes expensive, right? Then, if it drops by 100 million, for example, then how many years do you need to save 4 million won? Oh, but 100 million can easily drop, you've seen that, right? Yes, you saw it. For example, a wealthy person a few months ago, so what I mean is, if we simply look at the current situation and think that the interest rate will go down, we should quickly get a loan and buy a house.

That's not the important thing. What's more important is whether your house price is at a reasonable level. It's more important to look at that. This is looking at things differently in the world. For example, I don't necessarily want to compare owning a house with stocks, but for example, in the case of stocks, if it seems like the stock price may not go up, and the bank says, We will give you a cheap loan when you buy stocks, would you quickly take out a loan and buy stocks? No, absolutely not, right? Real estate is like that. Ah, I see, I understand now. So, in the current situation, from the perspective of a layperson, the media keeps saying to buy a lot, it's going up, interest rates are going down, but it's not a situation where you should rush in blindly, right? You need to analyze it carefully. That's right. In fact, from 2008 to 2013, the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for homes decreased from the 70s to the 30s, a decrease of 4 percentage points. So, if the interest rate drops, the house prices will.

You should have gone up. No, from 2009 to 2013, the house prices kept falling, that's right. Why did it fall? The interest rates went down, but what happened was, at that time, the economic level was high, so many people who owned houses kept selling them. As the number of people buying decreased, naturally the demand and supply decreased, so the prices fell. Therefore, it's not all about interest rate cuts. In 2013, when I was looking for a newlywed house, I remember that time. The atmosphere back then was like, Don't buy a cheap house, it's the era of buying a house to make money. That era was over, and it was said that prices could drop further, so it was better to rent. In 2013, it was such a time again, and it was like hitting rock bottom. So, I argued a lot at home, asking why I chose to rent. Because, like now, it was like this.

I mean, it's all chaotic, isn't it? So, you know, it's hard to know. When I think back to that time, I used to think the owner of the house was just a fool, but since 2014, the prices have been going up a lot. I had thought a lot about the fact that the idol I kept raising was also rising, but then it fell again, and it's hard to know what's going to happen. This is the time when you all need to change your way of thinking a bit. Especially when it comes to the information you receive, in the case of real estate, there is too much distortion. For example, in 2014, there were media and experts who said that the Korean real estate was over, but in 2011, they were talking about a surge in house prices in 2013, saying there was a shortage of houses. So, I'm not saying anything about those people, but if you only focus on the current situation or phenomenon, you can't predict the future. So, the fluctuations of today.

It is necessary to think about the causes, whether this change will continue, and how it will change in the future. Even among those watching this broadcast, there are certainly people who are contemplating whether to buy a house. As you go around, you will hear a lot of talk about real estate, like, We have listings available now. It is unsettling. What should real homeowners do? If interest rates go down, it seems like house prices will go up. So, what should be done about house prices? Therefore, I hope you all clearly define why you want to buy a house. Is it for investment or because you want some economic stability by owning a house? Even if it's for living purposes, I recommend you just buy it. Take out a loan if needed. But I don't want to recommend that because the Supreme Court said owning a house is everything for the middle class. So, what should you do?

Even if you buy a house, think from an investment perspective. For example, even if you live in your own home, it would be nice if the house price continues to rise after you buy it, right? Make sure to ask that question. So, when you buy a house at the current price, will it actually go up? Will it be able to rise? Your thoughts will change. If you think it will go up, even if there is a correction, since you bought it and live there, eventually, even if it drops, it may recover. And then, when you buy and live in that house, there is the joy of living there, isn't there? There is no need to move, there is joy in living in that area, enjoying education, or being close to work. You should buy for those reasons. It's not about buying this to hit the jackpot. So, be clear about this.

Do you know why I need a house? Quickly, I want to buy a house cheaply and live there without knowing much about houses. It would be nice to live in my own house. So, you need to make an effort now. You should also read the market changes and understand them. As I mentioned earlier, I don't care about that. So, don't read the newspaper or watch the news, just talk about buying a house within your budget. However, I don't recommend the latter. Because even if I bought a house, which is a major asset, if the house price keeps dropping, is it good just because the neighborhood is good and the air is good? It's difficult. So, even when buying a house, I hope you see it as an investment. No, this is not about investing, it's a different story. Seeing it as an investment makes a difference, right? So, what kind of

Do you ever wonder why investors are not buying now? Oh, you might not think like that. Right, right. Why are people who invest now trying to sell their houses instead? If you think about this once, your actions could change a bit. And another thing is that opportunities always arise. You can always change your mind at any time. Therefore, I want to emphasize that you should never rush, especially now when the market volatility is very high. Interest rates are rising, but as you mentioned earlier, investment demand doesn't seem high now. Right, interest rates are rising, why is the economy not good, and the situation is not good, not only in our country but globally. Europe is lowering interest rates first, but the economy is not doing well. However, even though the economy is not doing well, interest rates are rising.

It's not like you should hurry and borrow money just because it's available. Right, that's correct. Real estate is very difficult and complicated to understand. The key point is, my judgment is crucial in assessing the situation. Whether it's about interest rates going up, or taxes being lowered, or giving out many loans, thinking that now is the opportunity, that kind of judgment should not be made. So, what's important is to consider your own situation first. Therefore, it's essential to keep an eye on the changes while looking at apartments that you want to live in or invest in, and those that you can purchase affordably. Yes, that's right. But it seems like now is the time to buy a home, as some comments suggest. There are also comments about the ups and downs of the housing market. It's interesting to see how the market fluctuates like this.

At the end of 2022, if house prices start to drop, what will people say? They might say, Oh, because house prices are dropping even more, I won't buy a house. But if they say prices are going up, then demand will increase, more will be sold, and that's why I want to ask those of you who mentioned earlier. I would like to ask once if you still have the same mindset even if house prices fall. Did you ever think that people were buying because prices were rising and you were emotionally swayed when making decisions? What is the basis for saying that now is the time to buy a house? If you had the same mindset when house prices fell, why didn't you buy then, and why do you want to buy now? If you suddenly have money and want to buy, reconsider if it's because you're emotionally driven. It's really psychologically challenging, isn't it?

If you don't buy it, you might think you can't go there if it suddenly jumps up. But why don't you buy it when it's about to drop? If you say that, you might drop. So, that's why. So, when I talk about this, it's difficult. It's similar to a hospital. When we are sick, we don't go to a lecture; we have one-on-one counseling. Lectures can only say things like, You should eat well and exercise a lot. The situation of each store is different because the living area, budget, and everything else are different. Therefore, I cannot tell you everything unilaterally. I can only talk about health. But from a health perspective, now is not the time to buy a house. Right, got it. Yes, I understand. I want to hear more, but our time is limited now.

I brought it today and it was fun to listen to. When I hear about real estate, it is related to psychology, and various factors such as economic and interest rate situations need to be considered one by one. But now, we can only talk about policies. The reason the current market is shaking and moving a lot is that the impact of policies is significant. They are loosening loans, loosening policies, removing all taxes, and relaxing various regulations. Even though the housing prices have not dropped significantly, the government that has lifted regulations on a large scale like this has never been seen before. It's a conservative government, but there is an interesting point. Even though they have loosened regulations significantly, the housing prices are not rising significantly. Hmm, why is that? Why? This will be discussed in the next session. Oh, no, it feels like it's going to be a long debate.

You're doing well. Now, let's listen to the CEO's words carefully, and next, we will continue to hear more about the following story.

[박정호의 핫스팟] "'부동산 정보' 왜곡 많다" 이광수 대표가 밝힌 집 구매 시 눈여겨봐야 할 관점은? "무리는 No!"

채널에 가입하여 혜택을 누려보세요.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClAfLVQYZSLrMAQQ_SXPVZw/join


오마이TV

현재 주택 시장은 집이 없는 사람들에게 불안감을 주고 있으며, 가격 상승에 따라 대출을 받아 주택을 구입하려는 수요로 이어지고 있습니다.

그러나 가격이 상승하면 지속적인 수요는 감소하기 때문에 대출로 인한 수요 증가는 일시적인 현상일 가능성이 높습니다.

한편, 경험이 많은 주택 소유자와 투자자들은 현재 시장에서 주택 구매를 주저하고 있으며, 이는 매물 증가로 이어져 향후 조정 가능성을 시사하고 있습니다.

변화하는 부동산 정책이 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

부동산 정책의 변동으로 인해 여러 주택을 소유한 사람들이 매매를 반복하고 있습니다.

부동산 세금 폐지와 세율 인하에 대한 논의가 부동산 소유자들을 자극하고 가격을 상승시키고 있습니다.

저금리 기조는 대출과 주택 구매를 장려하고 있지만, 변동하는 시장은 구매자들에게 불확실성을 야기하고 있습니다.

변화하는 정책으로 인해 구매에 대한 긴박감이 조성되고 있지만, 주택 가격의 변동은 의사 결정 과정에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

부동산 시장은 예측하기 어렵기 때문에 주택 구매 또는 임대 결정은 서두르기보다는 신중하게 분석해야 합니다.

집값의 변동은 금리 인하에만 영향을 받는 것이 아니라 수요와 공급의 역학 관계에도 영향을 받습니다.

언론과 전문가들은 부동산 시장 동향에 대해 일관성 없는 예측을 하는 경우가 많아 잠재적 구매자에게 왜곡된 정보를 제공합니다.

투자 목적이든 개인적 안정이든 주택을 구입하려는 이유를 명확히 정의하는 것이 중요합니다.

주택을 구매하기 전에 시장 변화와 주택 가격 상승 가능성을 신중하게 고려해야 합니다.

재정적인 측면도 중요하지만, 내 집에서 사는 기쁨과 실질적인 혜택도 고려해야 합니다.

금리 상승과 대출 가능 금액 증가에도 불구하고 투자 수요는 저조하여 성급한 결정에 주의를 촉구합니다.

주택 시장의 변동과 의사 결정에 대한 감정적 영향이 강조되면서 현재 주택 구매에 대한 추진의 근거에 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

시장 변동성에 직면한 심리적 어려움과 주택 구매 동기를 재평가하는 것의 중요성이 강조됩니다.

부동산 투자 시기는 결정하기 어려우며 의학적 조언을 구하는 것과 비교할 수 있습니다.

건강의 관점에서 볼 때 지금은 주택을 구입하기에 적절한 시기가 아닙니다.

현재 부동산 시장은 보수적인 정부의 전례 없는 규제 완화로 인해 큰 변동을 겪고 있습니다.