2023년 4분기 경제 전망 및 투자 전략

### 2023년 4분기 경제 인사이트 및 투자 전략
* 📉 저는 올해 **50bp 금리 인하**를 예상하고 있으며, 보다 효과적인 정책 변화를 위해 **11월에 인하**를 단행한 후 **12월에 인하**할 것을 제안합니다.
* 💼 경제학자로서 저는 4분기에 개인 투자자에게 **거시경제 이벤트, 절세 투자, 위험 요소**라는 세 가지 중요한 영역을 강조합니다.
* 🗳 다가오는 미국 대통령 선거, 연방준비제도이사회 회의, 한국은행의 통화정책은 투자 결정에 영향을 미칠 **중요한 거시적 이슈**입니다.
* 💰 연말 절세 혜택을 극대화하기 위해서는 **개인종합자산관리계좌(ISA) 및 개인퇴직연금(IRP)**과 같은 절세 옵션을 고려해야 합니다.
* 📊 투자자는 복잡한 세금 체계로 인해 **금융투자소득세와 코스닥 대주주의 지분 매각 가능성**에 유의해야 합니다.
* 🤔 '샤이 트럼프' 현상은 **트럼프에 대한 지지가 과소평가**되어 지정학적 리스크와 시장 불확실성을 초래할 수 있음을 시사합니다.
* 🎄 '산타 랠리'로 알려진 연말 시장 랠리 가능성은 불확실하며 **경제 전망과 미국 대선 결과**에 따라 크게 좌우될 것입니다.
* 💳 연말이 다가올수록 위험 관리와 자산 배분의 중요성을 강조하면서 **ISA 계좌를 우선적으로 투자**하고 개인연금저축과 IRP 계좌에 투자하는 것을 추천합니다.

홍춘욱 이코노미스트는 4분기에 전략적 투자와 리스크 관리의 중요성을 강조합니다.

I now expect that they will lower the interest rate by 50 basis points within this year, so it would be best to take a break in November and have a rate cut in December. Lowering the rate each time during meetings is less effective than taking a break and then lowering it. Moreover, the fact that they are considering a freeze itself indicates that the economy is quite good. For now, they have indicated on the dot plot that they will lower the interest rate by 50 basis points this year, so I am paying attention to the new style of policy changes in the interest rate.

Now, the second point is, hello, I am economist Hong Chun-wook. Today, I would like to discuss the direction that individual investors in our country should pay attention to in the fourth quarter. There are three main points. First, of course, are macro issues: the U.S. presidential election in early November, the U.S. FMC in December, and the Bank of Korea's monetary policy in October, all of which are pressing economic issues that affect investment.

You need to check this carefully. The second point is that as the year-end approaches, you shouldn't forget about tax-saving investment options. Recently, I've been emphasizing the Comprehensive Asset Management Account (ISA). If you have the capacity, you should also consider studying or investing in additional products that provide tax deductions, such as pension savings or Individual Retirement Plans (IRP). Lastly, the third point concerns risk factors. There is also the financial investment income tax, and particularly at the year-end, there are significant sell-off activities by major shareholders, especially in the KOSDAQ. This situation arises because our country's tax system is somewhat complicated. As we try to patch things up, this has become the reality. Nonetheless, it's essential to keep an eye on the major shareholder sell-off and various tax-related sell-off pressures that can occur at the year-end. These are important checkpoints to consider.

I would like to start with the first interest rate cut. I expect that this year, they will cut the rate by another 50 basis points. So, I think it would be best to take a break in November and have the rate cut in December. This would be very good because reducing the rate every time there is a meeting is less effective than taking a break and then making a cut. Moreover, the fact that they are considering a freeze indicates that the economy is doing quite well. They have already indicated on the dot plot that they will cut the rate by 50 basis points this year, so while keeping that promise, I am interested in this new style of policy change that involves making cuts less frequently rather than every month.

Now, the second point is about the U.S. presidential election. There is this concept of shy Trump and hidden racists, right? Did you know that President Obama always had lower vote percentages than his approval ratings?

We now refer to it as the hidden racist phenomenon. The more we search using terms like black, the lower the actual voting rate of President Obama seems to be according to various studies. This indicates that there are still many people in the United States who hold racist views. Additionally, the issues surrounding candidate Harris being of mixed race are problematic. Furthermore, in the elections of 2016 and 2020, President Trump actually garnered a higher voting rate than his approval ratings suggested. We now refer to this as the shy Trump phenomenon, and while it may be decreasing, I believe there will still be Trump votes that polls fail to capture. Considering this, I think Harris is still at a disadvantage of about 10% compared to Trump in this election. Therefore, when looking at these factors, we should be mindful of the support rates.

There are parts that you need to pay attention to. If the possibility of Trump becoming president increases, we need to be mindful of geopolitical risks from our perspective. These aspects will create uncertainty in the market. It would be good to keep these things in mind. As we approach the end of the year, there is some anticipation for next year in the U.S. regarding capital gains tax. Investors might realize losses on their investments to offset profits, and after those sales, they often start buying again. This has the effect of adjusting the purchase price. Therefore, at the end of the year, there tends to be a market rally, especially among small-cap stocks, which is referred to as the Santa Rally or year-end effect. There is a possibility of that happening, but it will depend on next year's economic outlook.

It is a concerning situation where the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates due to poor economic forecasts. We should consider whether a Santa Rally can happen easily under these circumstances. As I mentioned earlier, it is a time to think about how the Federal Reserve's economic outlook is changing. Personally, I believe that the U.S. market has risen too much this year, and whether we will see a Santa Rally will depend on the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Discussing a Santa Rally at this moment seems premature to me.

I recommend looking into ISA accounts, particularly brokerage-type ISA accounts. The annual limit is 20 million won, which is generally the maximum savings amount for most salaried workers. I suggest considering investing this amount. If there is still money left after that, we can think about the year-end tax settlement for the account.

The limit for receiving funds in the account is up to 9 million won. If you contribute up to 9 million won through a personal pension savings account and an IRP account, you can receive an end-of-year tax benefit of up to about 1.3 million won, depending on your income level. It would be good to take advantage of this as well. However, personal pension accounts and IRP accounts provide generous end-of-year tax benefits, but there may be penalties when withdrawing funds, so careful consideration is necessary when enrolling. Therefore, if I had to suggest an order, I would recommend starting with the ISA account if you have extra money, followed by personal pension savings, and then the IRP account. Of course, for those like me who are nearing the withdrawal age for pension savings, it would be best to prioritize pension savings first. For reference, from age 55, after five years of enrollment in the pension savings, you can start withdrawing.

If you go beyond that, you can withdraw from your pension savings or retirement pension. So, I think it would be good to consider that part and set the order for your investments. It really makes me feel gloomy to think that there are only three months left this year. As I get older, I find myself feeling more and more depressed. I hope you all finish the fourth quarter well so that you have no regrets. I am especially proud of the achievements that come from betting on certain assets. It’s not easy for that to lead to continuous investment choices. In that sense, I hope to take an interest in risk management and asset allocation that involves diversifying risks as we enter the fourth quarter of 2024. I wish for great investment success for all of you and your families. Thank you very much for listening.

4분기 시장, 개인투자자가 알아야 할 자산 투자전략을 알아봅시다

"환율의 미래"와 "프랑스 탐방기" 등 10여권의 책을 쓴, 이코노미스트 홍춘욱입니다. 25년 넘게 이코노미스트 일을 하면서, 반복되는 질문에 답하느라 힘들었는데.. 동영상을 통해 자주 묻는 질문에 대해 쉽게 답하고자 합니다.


*비지니스문의 : hong8706@us-all.co.kr
*강연 문의: https://c11.kr/19l7h


홍춘욱의 경제강의노트

12월까지 50bp 금리 인하가 예상되며, 11월에 인하할 가능성이 높습니다.

4분기에는 미국 대선과 한국은행의 통화정책 등 주요 매크로 이슈를 개인투자자들이 주시해야 합니다.

개인종합자산관리계좌(ISA), 연금저축 등 절세형 투자상품도 고려해야 하며, 코스닥 대주주의 연말 매도 움직임도 주의해야 합니다.

연사는 12월에 50bp 금리 인하를 예상하며 보다 효과적인 정책 변화를 위해 11월에 휴식기를 가질 것을 제안합니다.

연사는 오바마의 낮은 득표율과 관련된 '숨겨진 인종차별주의' 현상과 '샤이 트럼프' 현상에 대해 논의하며 두 후보가 여론조사 결과보다 더 많은 지지를 받을 수 있음을 시사합니다.

연사는 다가오는 선거에서 해리스가 트럼프에 비해 10% 정도 불리하다고 보고 지지율을 고려하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

지정학적 리스크와 연말 시장 동향

트럼프가 대통령이 될 가능성이 높아지면서 지정학적 리스크와 시장 불확실성이 커질 수 있습니다.

연말이 되면 투자자들은 이익을 상쇄하기 위해 손실을 실현하는 경우가 많아 특히 소형주에서 잠재적인 시장 랠리로 이어질 수 있습니다.

연방준비제도의 경제 전망과 금리 결정은 산타 랠리 가능성을 결정하는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것입니다.

세금 혜택 극대화 및 은퇴 계획 수립

계좌 수령 한도는 900만 원으로, 최대 130만 원까지 연말정산 세제 혜택을 받을 수 있습니다.

특히 인출 연령이 가까워진 분들은 ISA 계좌로 시작해 개인연금저축, IRP 계좌 순으로 가입하는 것이 좋습니다.

연금저축은 가입 후 5년이 지나면 55세부터 인출이 가능하므로 투자 순서를 신중하게 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.