About two years ago, a massive explosion occurred at a fireworks warehouse in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. A gigantic mushroom cloud and endlessly rising smoke filled the sky. The shockwave from the explosion shattered windows, and people were rendered unable to move by its terrifying power. The force of this explosion was equivalent to that of a small nuclear warhead, measuring approximately 1.1 kilotons, which is just one-fifteenth the strength of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. 

If Russia were to actually use nuclear weapons, the small tactical nuclear weapons likely to be deployed in Ukraine would possess similar power. Russia holds the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. As fears of a nuclear war instigated by Putin intensify, questions arise about how the United States and the Western world would respond if he were to actually push the nuclear button.

Specific measures are being proposed. Since the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in 1945, no country in the world has used nuclear weapons in war. However, on September 21, seven months after Russia invaded Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin announced mobilization and stated that the use of nuclear weapons is not a bluff. Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor, said that they take this seriously and conveyed to senior Russian officials that there would be catastrophic consequences if nuclear weapons were used. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia possesses nearly half of the 12,750 nuclear warheads held by the nine nuclear-armed countries worldwide, with 5,901 warheads. Russia also has Kalibr cruise missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Bob Seely, a member of the British Parliament and an expert on Russian nuclear strategy, mentioned that there is a significant difference in perception between Russia and the West regarding the situation. Seely stated that the world has already developed a negative view of Russia and Putin, who are somewhat free from the condemnation associated with the use of nuclear weapons, unlike the Western world. He pointed out that Russia views tactical nuclear weapons as usable tools to de-escalate the current crisis. In fact, the day after Putin announced mobilization, Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia, warned that any weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used. Strategic nuclear weapons refer to large nuclear warheads capable of obliterating entire cities, typically over 100 kilotons. If the use of nuclear weapons by Putin becomes a reality, how will the Western world respond? William Alberque, International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The Director of the Arms Control Bureau stated through the British Telegraph that the United States does not wish to go it alone and will demand military support from allied countries such as the UK and France. He further revealed that the West is likely to target Russia's radar and nuclear attack monitoring systems, as well as the command centers of the Russian military. It was also analyzed that attacks could be directed at the Russian mainland, rather than Belarus, which has amended its constitution to allow for the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons, or the regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia. Attacking space-based assets, such as satellites, has been discussed as prohibited among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. According to Alburk, the Western world will not attack Russian satellites in accordance with this agreement. Former British Joint Forces Commander Rupert Jones stated that if Putin orders the use of nuclear weapons...

Seobyeong stated that conventional responses could be employed. He mentioned that NATO forces could directly intervene by precisely targeting Russian naval vessels or deploying air power to engage in aerial combat, indicating that traditional responses are possible. In fact, there have been several videos recently released on social media showing large movements of NATO troops in Poland and Romania. Former Commander Jones predicted that the West would prefer not to respond to a Russian nuclear attack with nuclear weapons, as doing so would forfeit the moral high ground currently held and would also undermine support from the United Nations. He analyzed that if Russia were to resort to nuclear weapons, the economy could become an even more powerful weapon for Russia. Alburke assessed that the West would attempt to sway Russia's allies, such as China and India, to further isolate the Russian economy.

If even China and India turn their backs on Russia, it is predicted that it will be difficult for the Russian people to endure the resulting poverty.

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[밀리터리] 핵 버튼에 손 올린 푸틴…진짜 핵 쏘면 서방의 대응 시나리오는?

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