인도의 경제 과제와 발전의 길

### 인도 경제 성장을 위한 도전과 기회
* 📊 인도는 **세계 5위의 경제 대국**이 되었지만 1인당 소득은 뒤처져 있으며 **중국을 추월하기에는 아직 멀다**고 합니다.
* 👩 인도의 열악한 교육 시스템과 인적 자본에 대한 낮은 투자는 **경제 성장의 주요 장애물**입니다.
* 🏭 세계 시장을 겨냥한 제조업은 다양한 인프라와 규제 문제로 인해 역사적으로 **인도의 강점이 아니었습니다.**
* 💰 정부는 **GDP의 6%를 목표**로 경제 성장을 촉진하기 위해 외국인 직접 투자(FDI)를 늘려야 합니다.
* 🏦 인도의 재정 적자가 증가하면서 정부 재정에 영향을 미치고 **잠재적으로 인플레이션과 차입 비용 상승**으로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 🌐 경상수지 적자는 글로벌 수출 수요 둔화를 반영하여 **거의 10년 만에 최대치**로 확대되었습니다.
* 👨 인도의 여성 노동력 참여율은 주변 국가에 비해 현저히 낮으며, 이는 아직 **개발되지 않은 잠재력**을 나타냅니다.
* 🎓 인도가 장기적인 경제 성장과 경쟁력을 갖추기 위해서는 **교육 시스템을 개혁**하고 **인적 자본에 투자**하는 것이 중요합니다.

인도의 낙후된 경제와 노동력 문제는 놀라운 성장에도 불구하고 경제 강국으로 도약하는 데 걸림돌이 되고 있습니다.

India is now the fifth-largest economy, overtaking
the United Kingdom. When we talk about the Indian economy, we
become extremely optimistic, quoting India as the next economic superpower. But when we compare the per capita income
of the top five emerging economies, India is a long way from becoming an economic superpower. However, India has shown impressive growth,
but it lags behind its rival China. The history of Asia can be read by comparing
the Indian and Chinese economies. According to World Bank figures in chained dollars, In 1980, India’s gross domestic product was 64% of China’s. By 2001 when China joined the World Trade
Organization, India’s economy was only 28% as large as China’s. And, despite several years of rapid growth
in the 21st century, by 2021, India’s economy had fallen even further behind and equaled
only 17% of the Chinese economy.

That’s because China's GDP growth has always been higher than India's in the past. If India’s economy had kept pace with China over the past 40 years, India would currently have a GDP of $10 trillion instead of $3.47 trillion. But this is not the case. However, India would surpass China in one thing: population. But according to some projections, its workforce will not exceed China’s until mid-century, even though Indians are much younger. India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25, and more than 65% below the age of 35. It is the country's strength as well as its weakness. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private research firm that publishes more recent data than official numbers, the jobless rate has been hovering around 7% or 8%, up from around 5% over the last five years. And According to the CMIE, the labor force participation rate — which includes persons

who are employed or seeking employment — has
fallen below 40% from 46% six years ago. This chart shows India’s youth unemployment
rate is 40%, much higher than the overall rate of 7.7%. If you include household adult women, the
rate would be significantly higher. A rise in female employment rates to the male
level would provide India with an extra 235 million workers. This is more than the EU has of either gender
and more than enough to fill all the factories in the rest of Asia. Think about the repercussions. If India rebalanced its workforce in this
manner, the IMF believes that the world’s largest democracy would be 27% richer. It is not unusual in developing economies
for a family’s social standing to be enhanced by having its women remain at home. But India stands out, as its female labor-force
participation rate is well below those of countries at comparable income levels. For example, in neighboring Bangladesh, whose
customs are not so different from India’s,

a boom in garment manufacturing has increased
the number of working women by 50% since 2005. In Vietnam, three-quarters of women work. But the mega-factories that boosted female
employment there are largely absent in India. The problem is the lack of employment opportunities. The so-called ‘India’s World-Beating Growth’
isn’t creating jobs. A big part of the problem is India’s poor
education system and job training, which means local degrees and certificates are often considered
worthless by employers. This data shows only 20% of the population
in the age group of 25 to 34 is in high-skill professions such as medicine, advanced research,
with more vocational programs leading to the labor market. India’s youth failed to get skills and education
because of its government. The Indian government only spends an average
of 2% of its GDP on primary to post-secondary education, which is very low compared to Brazil
and South Africa.

India is also among the countries with the
lowest public expenditure on health care, at only 1.3% of GDP. India is failing to provide two key components
of human development: education and health. As a result, labor productivity is declining. Labor productivity is most important factor
for improving the living standards of people in the economy. As an economy’s labor productivity grows,
it produces more goods and services for the same amount of relative work. This increase in output makes it possible
to consume more goods and services for an increasingly reasonable price. If we compare the GDP per hour worked of BRICS
countries, India has the lowest level of productivity. China’s productivity took off in 2000 because
When its technocrats decide to dam a river, build a road or move a village, the dam goes
up, the road goes down, and the village disappears. The displaced villagers may be compensated, but they are not allowed to stand in the way of progress.

China’s leaders make rational decisions that balance the needs of all citizens over the long term. This has led to rapid, sustained growth that
has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. But this is not the case with India. Infrastructure, such as roads and power, and
public services, such as education and drinking water, are woefully inadequate and limit growth. India's top computer scientists are entertained
around the world, yet most children in rural areas lack the basic education needed to find
more productive work. A popular argument is that other Asian economies
grew by 8–9% for long periods, so why not India? But this East Asian economy invested much
more in education and infrastructure than India does today. Regarding infrastructure, the Indian economy
has seen unstoppable growth in fixed capital formation, including land improvements, plant,
machinery, and equipment purchases, and the construction of roads, railways, and commercial
and industrial buildings. Still, since 2007, it has fallen from 36%
to 29%.

Several factors have led to the decrease
in fixed capital formation. These include policy uncertainty, financing problems, weakness
in private investment, and a slowdown in the banking sector. But the most important factor is the fall
in foreign direct investment (FDI). Since 2008, FDI has fallen from 3.6% to 1.4%
of GDP. The government needs to increase the amount
of FDI to as much as 6% of the gross domestic product to help spur the economy. It's important for the government to implement
policies and initiatives to attract foreign investors, such as making it easier to do
business, providing tax incentives, and streamlining the investment process. Mr. Narendra Modi could not double the size
of the economy to $5 trillion by 2025 while promoting self-reliance and keeping government
revenue under pressure. In the last 10 years, the government’s fiscal
deficit, which is the difference between the

government’s total expenditure and total
revenue (excluding borrowing) has grown. This has led to pressure on the government's
finances and raised concerns about the sustainability of its spending programs. The increasing fiscal deficit also impacts
the country's credit rating and borrowing costs. If the deficit continues to grow, it could
lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which could further slow economic growth. Moreover, it could also increase the government's
dependence on borrowing, potentially leading to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio. India's debt-to-GDP ratio is around 90%. This indicates that the country has a relatively
high level of government debt compared to its economic output. However, India's debt-to-GDP ratio is not
as high as that of some other countries. Credit rating agencies like Moody's, Standard
& Poor's, and Fitch Ratings gave India a stable rating, which is considered investment-grade
ratings. This indicates that the agencies believe that
India has a relatively low credit risk and

a stable outlook for its economy. Another crucial area to push forward is exports. According to this report, India’s current-account
balance widened to the highest in nearly a decade as the nation’s trade gap ballooned
and foreign investments fell. The current account, the broadest measure
of the country’s overseas trade and service flows, was in a deficit of $36 billion, or
4.4% of GDP. India’s current account deficit has been
a matter of concern in recent years. The country faces a persistent trade deficit
and increased payments for imports, leading to a widening gap between inflows and outflows. According to the Financial Stability Report,
the widened trade deficit reflected “the impact of slowing global demand on exports. Although global demand has slowed, Indian
consumer demand is rising. This consumer confidence index shows the level
of optimism or pessimism among households about the overall state of the economy and
their personal financial situation. It is typically calculated based on surveys
of a representative sample of households.

in which they are asked about their views
on current and future economic conditions, employment prospects, and their spending and
saving patterns. The index is used as an indicator of consumer
spending, which is an important driver of economic growth. Consumption may rise further as inflation
falls and Indians’ purchasing power rises. But capital spending and manufacturing are
what really matter—they boost current growth and the economy’s potential. Manufacturing for the world market has not
been India’s strong suit. Rickety infrastructure, expensive and unreliable
electric power, complicated labor and land laws, and a frustrating bureaucracy prevented India from joining previous waves of Asian industrialization. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam,
and of course, China all outperformed India in the race to industrialize. Today, however, a confluence of international
and domestic factors is giving India a chance to catch up. Internationally, manufacturers are looking
to reduce their dependency on China. Domestically, the populist government of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi wants broader prosperity.

than the cyber economy on its own can provide. Years of investment in highways, railroads,
and ports combined with regulatory reforms have reduced, if not eliminated, the obstacles
that long kept foreign investors at bay. Investing in human capital can also help address
several other challenges facing India, such as the need for a more skilled and productive
workforce, and the challenge of creating decent jobs for the growing population. Education and training are critical to the
long-term growth and competitiveness of the Indian economy. A well-educated and skilled workforce is essential
for attracting investment, promoting innovation, and increasing productivity. To achieve these goals, the government must
allocate more educational resources and prioritize them in its budget and policymaking. Overall, reforming the education system and
increasing investment in human capital is crucial for India to become a leading global
economy and ensure a better future for its citizens.

The Problem With Indian Economy | Indian Economy | Econ

Econ

인도는 영국을 제치고 세계 5위의 경제 대국이 되었지만 1인당 소득은 다른 신흥 경제국에 비해 뒤처져 있습니다.

인도의 GDP는 중국보다 훨씬 작으며, 지난 40년 동안 성장률도 중국을 따라잡지 못했습니다.

인도의 높은 청년 인구는 특히 청년층과 여성의 실업률이 높다는 점에서 강점과 약점을 동시에 가지고 있습니다.

IMF에 따르면 여성 고용을 남성 수준으로 늘리면 인도가 27% 더 부유해질 수 있다고 합니다.

그러나 인도의 여성 노동력 참여율은 방글라데시 등 비슷한 소득 수준의 국가에 비해 훨씬 낮습니다.

의류 제조업이 여성 고용에 미치는 영향

의류 제조업 붐으로 특히 베트남에서 일하는 여성의 수가 크게 증가했습니다.

그러나 인도에서는 고용 기회 부족과 열악한 교육 시스템으로 인해 이러한 성장이 나타나지 않고 있습니다.

교육과 의료에 대한 인도의 낮은 투자는 인간 개발의 실패와 노동 생산성 저하의 원인이 되고 있습니다.

다른 브릭스 국가에 비해 인도의 노동 생산성은 가장 낮음이 이는 생활 수준 향상에 매우 중요한 요소입니다.

2000년 이후 중국의 생산성이 크게 증가한 것은 저항을 최소화하는 개발 방식과 관련이 있습니다.

중국과 인도의 경제 성장률 비교

중국은 합리적인 의사결정을 통해 빠르고 지속적인 성장을 이루며 수백만 명을 빈곤에서 벗어나게 한 반면, 인도는 인프라 및 공공 서비스 부족으로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

인도는 교육과 인프라에 대한 투자가 부족하여 빠르게 성장하는 다른 아시아 국가들과 차별화됩니다.

정책 불확실성과 외국인 직접 투자 감소와 같은 요인으로 인해 인도의 고정 자본 형성이 감소한 것은 정부가 정책 이니셔티브를 통해 더 많은 FDI를 유치해야 할 필요성을 강조합니다.

인도의 재정 적자 증가와 경제적 과제

정부의 총지출과 수입이 증가하면서 재정에 압박을 가하고 지속 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

재정 적자 증가는 국가의 신용등급과 차입 비용에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 인플레이션과 이자율 상승으로 이어져 경제 성장을 둔화시킬 수 있습니다.

인도는 또한 지속적인 무역 불균형과 외국인 투자 감소로 인해 높은 국내총생산 대비 부채 비율과 경상수지 적자 확대라는 문제에 직면해 있습니다.

소비자 신뢰 지수는 인도의 소비 패턴과 경제 성장을 측정하는 데 사용됩니다.

구매력 상승으로 소비자 지출이 증가할 수 있지만, 자본 지출과 제조업에 대한 집중은 현재와 잠재적 경제 성장에 매우 중요합니다.

인도는 역사적으로 세계 시장을 겨냥한 제조업 분야에서 다른 아시아 국가들에 비해 뒤쳐져 있었지만, 이제는 국제 수요 변화와 국내 개혁 노력으로 인해 따라잡을 수 있는 기회를 맞이했습니다.

인프라, 규제 개혁, 인적 자본에 대한 투자는 당면 과제를 해결하고 장기적인 경제 경쟁력과 성장을 촉진하는 데 필수적입니다.

정부는 인도의 미래 글로벌 경제 리더십을 위해 숙련된 인력을 양성하고 혁신을 촉진하기 위한 교육 자원과 개혁의 우선순위를 정해야 합니다.