반도체 산업에 대한 지정학적 영향

### 반도체 산업의 지정학적 불확실성
* 🇺🇸 중국으로의 반도체 수출에 대한 트럼프 행정부의 입장은 여전히 불확실하며, 이는 **미국, 유럽, 일본 공급업체에 잠재적인 영향**을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🇨🇳 중국은 **시진핑 주석의 반도체 산업 자립화 요구**에 따라 토종 혁신과 기술 자립에 더욱 집중하고 있습니다.
* 🇯🇵 일본과 네덜란드 기업들은 **중국으로의 판매를 제한하라는 압력**을 받고 있으며, 이는 잠재적으로 **중국 정부의 보복 조치**로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 🇹🇼 트럼프 전 대통령의 대만 안보에 대한 발언으로 우려가 제기되었지만 전문가들은 **대만을 포기하기보다는 미국의 대아시아 정책의 변화를 시사**하고 있습니다.
* 💼 업계 전문가들은 지정학적 요인으로 인해 **주가의 변동성이 커지고 있는 반도체 시장**을 면밀히 모니터링하고 있습니다.
* 🤖 AI가 주도하는 반도체 수요는 업계의 핵심 요소이며, **TSMC는 전 세계 고객에게 서비스를 제공하는 주요 업체**입니다.
* 📉 골드만삭스의 최고 리서치 애널리스트가 **AI에 대한 장기적인 수요와 반도체 성장에 미치는 영향**에 대해 의문을 제기했습니다.
* 🍎 스트리밍 서비스를 위해 더 많은 영화를 라이선스하려는 Apple의 노력은 **이 거대 기업이 콘텐츠 제공을 확대**하는 데 주력하고 있음을 보여줍니다.

지정학적 긴장은 반도체 산업의 불확실성을 야기하여 중국 내 미국, 유럽, 일본 하드웨어 공급업체에 영향을 미칩니다.

The chip sector is absolutely in focus right now. Just respond to what you heard from Kunshan there on their thesis on geopolitics and who may or may not benefit in a Trump presidency. Well, I think it is really early to say, and I think that's why we're seeing so much volatility, because while we have a sense from Trump himself, from his vice president, from his top advisers, how he looks at competition with China, the prescriptions that he will use really are unclear to date based on what the Biden administration is doing. We are seeing the potential for more curbs on American and non-American semiconductor products, particularly hardware going to support China in increasing its focus on technology, self-reliance, a key theme coming out of the third plenum. That is what we're hearing, that Xi Jinping is saying we need more indigenous innovation, we need technology to help us build our own.

semiconductor industry because we cannot
rely on an uncertain geopolitical landscape, given uncertainty in the
United States and in Europe. Two key suppliers, and of course Japan, of
this technology hardware to China as a result of that.
Of course, American, European, Japanese hardware providers of China's
semiconductor, a global semiconductor manufacturing, are being pressured to
restrict what they are going to continue to sell and service in China.
That's where so much of this uncertainty is, because the question of how what are
the restrictions? Will the United States be successful in
negotiating with the Dutch, with the Japanese governments to really expand
restrictions on what can be provided by China is the key.
How much do you believe that the threats will become reality?
How much do you think that the Dutch and the Japanese will curtail servicing
technology that already exists in China? Well, I think there's going to continue,
of course, to be American industry pressure that not they alone face those
restrictions, Caroline.

And so, while, of course, U.S. industry doesn't want to see more restrictions on what they can sell to China, if there is not a direct national security concern, they right now are unfairly competing against Japanese and Dutch companies that are continuing to sell to China. And so, yes, I do think that there's going to be more pressure to expand those restrictions. I do not think what we were rumored to be hearing about, that there was going to be a massive expansion is going to come into play, certainly not in the Biden administration. I think there will be incremental steps to restrict certain companies in China from receiving from receiving more semiconductor hardware products in the near term. The Trump administration, which is what we are talking about here, is the big yes. Amy, it takes two to tango, right? And you don't have a crystal ball. But if you take the industry as a parallel example, what China did was

give large volume subsidy, but it had a
limited shelf life. Do you recognize a sort of willingness
from the Chinese government to sort of fund their response to any sort of
political or geopolitical policy that either administration comes with in
November? Yeah, I think that's the key point.
I think the Dutch and the Japanese are very concerned not just for their
companies that are providing the technology hardware to China, were they
to be restricted. It's not just their profits, it's
China's retaliation. I think Xi Jinping has been extremely
clear that if a stranglehold on certain high tech products and services
continues vis a vis the China market, he is going to respond.
He is not, as he has said, going to sit idly by and watch those restrictions
continue to expand. And so the Dutch, the Japanese and the
U.S. government have to think long and hard
on the kinds of retaliatory tools China has available right now.
For example, export restrictions on

graphite.
Caroline to Japan, something Japanese industry desperately needs.
My final point, though, would be China has to weigh its retaliation to make
sure the retaliatory moves don't harm further an already very, very shaky
economy in China. Well said, Amy, and the leverage it had
a few years ago. You advise corporates, you advise
nonprofit clients at the moment ultimately about business and policy
interests. Can you advise us and our audience about
Taiwan, about some of the sentiment that seemed to be displayed by an interview
of Bloomberg Businessweek with former President Trump that maybe they wouldn't
come to Taiwan's aid? What does that mean for TSMC and for
Taiwan? Well, obviously, the silence coming from
Taiwan is deafening here. They are not responding to the
president. Former President Trump's Bloomberg
interview there. Instead, they are choosing to stand by
what the platform of the Republican

Party traditionally has been, which is to include Taiwan in it. And to say that, of course, the United States and Taiwan have a have a legislatively mandated, very strong relationship that does include U.S. provisions to come to Taiwan's aid. Of course, it's up to the commander in chief. So Taiwan authorities must be worried. But I will say the worry is probably not severe right now because most of the advisers around President Trump, including his his selection of vice presidential candidate with J.D. Vance, are very strong supporters of Taiwan. And so within a Trump to administration, were that to come to pass. There are going to be very significant conversations around how the United States continues to focus more on Asia than Europe, which is clearly a platform that we're starting to hear coming out of the Republican convention and what that means for U.S. policy towards Taiwan. So I wouldn't be so quick to conclude

that President Trump is going to abandon
Taiwan in the event of some kind of conflict, that would really be going
against traditional U.S. policy, particularly among the
Republicans. Amy, so important to have your
expertise. We thank you.
Amy Zelikow, principal analyst at Albright Stonebridge Group.
We thank you. And what's so interesting is we see this
volatility in the individual stocks today as we question ultimately some of
the valuations and where we've run into in the invidious in the like.
Yeah. I think what's so astonishing about the
conversation we just had, detailed, but we didn't even discuss about another
factor, which is the AI driven boom, right?
Growth driven by demand for accelerated manufacturing.
TSMC has clients everywhere. And so I just wonder how maybe we'll
talk to Jensen about it in a few weeks' time.
But it's like geopolitics takes away one market.
There are plenty waiting in the wings to

get some capacity, and I just thought it
was weird. You're right.
You bring that up. But then Goldman Sachs, top research
analyst today currently saying maybe you need to question the ultimate demand of
AI in the longer term. Will it really drive this productivity
growth? Great story on Jim Cavallo from some of
our colleagues and Bloomberg News today. Meanwhile, coming up, Apple, we know, is
in talks to license more films from major Hollywood studios.
Look, it's an effort to bolster its Apple TV plus streaming service in
report by Bloomberg. Stick with us.
This is Bloomberg Technology.

More Pressure on Chip Sector to Come: Analyst Celico

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지정학이 칩 부문에 미치는 영향

미-중 지정학적 환경을 둘러싼 불확실성으로 인해 칩 분야의 변동성이 커지고 있습니다.

중국은 자체적인 혁신과 기술 자립에 주력하면서 미국, 유럽, 일본 하드웨어 공급업체에 압력을 가하고 있습니다.

중국 내 반도체 판매 및 서비스에 대한 잠재적 제한에 대한 의문이 제기되면서 업계 전반의 압박으로 이어지고 있습니다.

중국에 판매하는 미국 기업에 대한 규제 확대 가능성

직접적인 국가 안보 문제가 없음에도 불구하고 중국에 판매하는 미국 기업에 대한 규제를 확대해야 한다는 압력이 커질 수 있습니다.

특히 바이든 행정부 하에서 이러한 잠재적 확대는 대규모 변화보다는 점진적인 조치를 수반할 가능성이 높습니다.

네덜란드와 일본 기업의 이익뿐만 아니라 중국의 보복 조치 가능성에 대한 우려는 미국 정부가 고려해야 할 핵심 요소입니다.

트럼프 전 대통령의 발언이 대만에 미친 영향

블룸버그 비즈니스위크 인터뷰에서 트럼프 전 대통령의 발언에 대해 대만은 직접적인 반응을 보이지 않고 침묵을 지키고 있습니다.

대만을 지지하는 공화당의 전통적인 입장과 일치하는 발언이었기 때문일 수 있습니다.

잠재적인 우려에도 불구하고 트럼프 대통령 측근들의 대만에 대한 강력한 지지는 미국 정책에서 아시아에 대한 중요한 대화와 집중으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

지정학이 기술주 및 AI 성장에 미치는 영향

트럼프 대통령이 대만을 포기할 것이라는 추측이 미국의 전통적인 정책에 반하는 방향으로 흘러가면서 기술주 변동성이 커지고 있습니다.

AI가 주도하는 제조업의 호황은 성장을 이끄는 중요한 요소이지만, 장기적인 수요와 생산성에 미치는 영향에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

한편, 애플의 영화 라이선스 확대 노력은 변화하는 기술 환경 속에서 Apple TV 플러스 스트리밍 서비스를 강화하기 위한 것입니다.