Hello, this is Orlando Kim. Today, we will have a time to analyze the market and look into various stocks. If you take a look at the overall market, you can see that there is a bit of an uneasy sentiment. The reason for this is, among other things, the geopolitical situation. In the case of Biden, there are currently unions involved, and he seems to be facing significant concerns regarding this. If he tries to interfere directly, it could affect the upcoming elections, and there may be economic repercussions. If this issue persists for more than a week or two, it could potentially impact the market. Otherwise, the market can continue to progress. I would also like to mention that the issues with Iran and Israel are somewhat being resolved.

Looking at today's market map, we can see that semiconductor stocks, which had been lagging yesterday, have risen significantly. Similarly, the energy sector is also showing an upward trend. However, Tesla has experienced a decline due to a slight miss in its delivery numbers. Overall, it can be said that the market is in a somewhat stagnant state.

When we examine the sectors, technology stocks have risen considerably, and energy stocks are also up. Most other stocks have experienced declines, but the drops are not substantial. Thus, we can observe a formation of a slight stagnation. Consumer defense stocks, which are considered defensive plays in the economy, have seen a notable decline. Instead of a large drop, market participants seem to be adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding growth. 

Next, let’s look at the S&P.

Let's take a look at the 500 index. It has broken through the previous high and is currently trading above it, showing a 0.01% increase to 5,700, which it continues to maintain. There doesn't seem to be a significant drop, and for now, the upward trend is still in play. When the stochastic indicator goes down to the bottom, that is typically a buying opportunity, as I mentioned. 

The Dow index is similar; it has also broken through the previous high and is trading above it, so it is difficult to say that it has entered a downward trend. 

Now, looking at the Nasdaq index, it is consistently forming new highs. Although it has not managed to break through the most recent peak, if the S&P or Dow rises first, there is a good chance it will follow suit. Today, it saw an increase of 0.13%, which is a complete turnaround from yesterday's decline.

Although it didn't fully recover, it still maintained some degree of downward rigidity. You can see it that way. The same goes for the Nasdaq; it didn't rise significantly compared to yesterday's market, but it still has some downward rigidity. The 20-day moving average is supporting it from below, so even if it goes down, any slight correction is not expected to be very deep. That's what I can say. 

The Russell Index is similar. The extent of the decline has decreased, so you can think of it that way. However, it would be difficult to say that it's a downward trend from here. After some adjustments, it seems likely to rebound again. To do that, a bit of time for adjustment is needed, as I mentioned. 

Next, let's take a look at Tesla. Tesla had a decline of about 6% during the market but has now risen by about 3%.

The expected delivery volume is currently falling short, and you can view it that way. As I have mentioned multiple times, when we reach around 270, it will likely be necessary to make some adjustments to the valuation. So, at this point, there is no need to rush or make hasty decisions. It’s better to hold on and observe how the robo-taxi situation is currently unfolding. 

Now, looking at the production numbers, the output is 469,000 units, while the delivery volume stands at 462,000 units. Although this represents a slight increase, it is still lower than expected. The forecast was between 465,000 and 470,000 units, but the actual delivery volume has fallen short. Consequently, the stock price initially dropped by 6% but has since recovered by about 3%.

상태가 있습니다. 저렇게 보시면 되겠습니다. 테슬라의 딜리버리 컨센서스를 한번 보시게 되면, 2024년에는 60만 대, 2025년에는 180만 대, 그리고 2028년에는 약 230만 대로 예측되고 있습니다. 이런 예측을 하고 있는 하우스들이 있습니다. 그렇다면 60만 대가 2024년에 나타났다고 생각해 보면, 4사분기에는 약 41만 대 정도가 되지 않겠는가, 이렇게 예측되고 있습니다. 그렇기 때문에 금년 인도량 자체가 줄어들 것으로 보입니다. 한 4사분기 정도로 말씀드릴 수 있겠습니다. 다음으로 비디아를 보겠습니다. 비디아도 어제 장에서 3% 하락했다가 오늘 장에서 1.58% 상승하여 118.85로 마감했습니다. 이러한 모습도 계속해서 말씀드렸지만, 지금 상각 수렴이 형성되고 있습니다. 그래서 위든 아래든 튀는 그런 입장인데, 일단은 기간 조정이 필요할 것 같습니다.

There is a significant possibility that it will go up later. The reason is that, in the current situation, there is a shortage, and the funding method continues to show a lack of demand, so a lot of demand is needed. Given this fundamental background, it is still the time to hold on; it is not the time to buy or sell here. Next, I will talk about TQQQ. This stock, when viewed from a long-term perspective, should still be held. Similarly, when the stochastic indicator reaches the bottom, it is a time for accumulation. Currently, we are still in a position to hold. Since it is hovering above the 200-day moving average, this indicates that the buying pressure is still strong.

Let's take a look at the stocks. Since the fluctuations are quite severe, it's important to approach this stock with caution. Unlike TQQQ, this stock is currently trading below the moving average. Therefore, even if it goes up, it may lack strength. In such cases, it's necessary to adopt a short-term approach. 

It's important to observe whether it can maintain the recent low points, such as around $32 or $30. We need to keep an eye on that. If it can hold these levels, it may rise again, but if not, there could be further declines. So, let's carefully monitor these aspects. For now, I suggest taking a short-term strategy. If it goes up, it might be a good time to take some profits. This applies to Bitcoin as well.

Let's take a look. If 60,000 is consistently maintained, then the next line would be around 57,000. If we can maintain that line, we could see a rebound again. I can say that. The reason this range is forming is that it will take a lot of time to completely break through the current level. This means that all the volumes here need to be digested first, so it requires a certain amount of time. Bitcoin is currently in such a phase. 

Next, if we look at the economic indicators, the most important one was the ADP employment index. The forecast was 124,000, but this time it came in at 143,000, showing a significant improvement. There was also an improvement compared to the previous month. Additionally, crude oil inventories have increased, and the FMC...

Now, there was also a speaker from Boman. I will explain it like this. The ADP employment index was quite good, with 143,000 jobs added. If we look at the details, in the current situation, in the production sector, specifically in natural resources and mining, there were about 14,000 jobs added. In construction, there were about 26,000 jobs, and in manufacturing, there were around 2,000 jobs that increased. As for the service sector, there were about 14,000 jobs added in trade. However, in the government sector, there was a slight decline, but almost all other sectors showed an increase. The financial sector, professional services, education, leisure, and other service industries also showed a very positive trend. Therefore, it seems that the non-farm payroll report coming out this Friday will also be favorable.

It appears that employment has improved, which is why interest rates have risen significantly in the market today. Given this situation, it seems likely that the interest rate will only be reduced by 0.25%. Because employment is strong, let's take a look at the next chart. This involves Tesla and other utilities, which are closely related. In 2024, the scale of solar power generation in the United States is expected to continue growing. This information comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For example, in August 2024, the average capacity is currently around 63.1 GW, which shows a 36% increase compared to 2023. Therefore, we can see that solar power is continuously increasing.

I can say this: we need to pay attention to stocks in this area. What is most important in the AI era is the data center. However, the owners of data centers are choosing nuclear energy. Therefore, we should keep an eye on companies like SMR and NuScale. 

Next, if we look at the crude oil inventory, it seems that it is maintaining around 400,000 barrels. Even though it is slightly decreasing, there are no major issues at the moment. 

Additionally, there was a speech by Ms. Michelle Bowman, which focused on various frameworks related to community banking for the future.

There wasn't much content, but it was about the regulations for banks, specifically in what direction banks should move and how the Fed should assist them. Additionally, there was a treasury auction, which was worth 119 billion dollars. The winning bid rate was 4.41%. When looking at the bidders, it was about 2 billion 590 million dollars, but the actual amount suppressed was around 64 billion dollars. This results in a ratio of about 3 to 3.4, which indicates a positive outlook. Given that this is a short-term bond, it’s not surprising that the situation is favorable. The current winning bid rate for short-term bonds is approximately 4.4%. Therefore, if we look at the conclusion, we see the monthly chart showing a five-month consecutive rise, which may lead to some pressure.

Nonetheless, these kinds of situations may occur in the early stages, but as we move to the latter part, wouldn’t it be better? Now, due to factors like inflation and war, there has been a decline, but these are external variables, not internal ones. There are no significant issues with the fundamentals. Therefore, if there is a substantial drop, that would be a buying opportunity, not a selling one. For now, it’s advisable to hold on and continue to follow along. If a sharp decline occurs, that would be the time to gradually adopt a buying strategy. Thank you for watching the video until the end. If you found it helpful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.

(시황분석) 항만 노조 파업을 어떻게 해결하느냐에 따라 상승세가 빨라진다

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(유튜버 소개)
    MBA(skku), 자문사 운용역, 창투사 심사역,주식 및 외환,선물 투자 경력 30 년 차.

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