대도시 지역의 부동산 투자 동향

인구 증가는 수요, 특히 젊은 층의 수요를 견인합니다. 20~40대 인구가 증가하는 지역은 10년 동안의 가능성을 보여줍니다. 인프라와 학교가 개발을 지원합니다.

### 서울 및 주변 지역 부동산 시장 분석
* 서울을 제외하면 **인구가 증가하면 수요도 증가**합니다. 특히 **젊은 인구가 늘어나는 것은 좋은 일**입니다. 이를 **생산가능인구**라고 합니다.
* 🏫 " 신도시에는 **유치원, 공립학교 및 다양한 유형의 학교**를 포함한 학교가 이미 준비되어 있습니다. 따라서 학교에 관심을 기울여야 합니다."
* 🏡 " 서울에서 **최상위층 아파트는 경쟁 없이 저절로 상승**합니다. 그 아래 아파트들은 걱정할 때가 되면 상승합니다."
* 시장에서 **통계적으로 유의미한 거래량**은 더 나은 분석을 가능하게 합니다. 안정적인 수요를 가진 대형 단지는 일반적으로 시장의 좋은 지표가 됩니다.
* 🏢 " 시장에서 가장 주목할 만한 것은 **올림픽 파크 포레**인데, 가격이 크게 상승했습니다."
* 🛣️ "쇠퇴하는 지역에서는 **다음 상승 지역으로 이전**하는 것을 고려하는 것이 중요합니다."
* 🧳 " 거주할 지역을 고려할 때는 향후  5~10년을 내다보고 **조화가 확인된 지역**을 선택해야 합니다.
* 🏙️ "서울의 경우 **강남, 서초, 용산을 제외한 경기도, 인천, 신도시 지역**을 고려하는 것이 좋다"고 말했다.

Excluding Seoul, if the population increases, the demand also increases. Especially, it's good when the young population increases. This is called the productive population. If you check the areas where the population from their 20s to 40s is increasing, it seems like those areas will be fine for the next 10 years. Most likely, the infrastructure is also expanding in that direction, the transportation network is expanding, and the government is not foolish. When they lay down the railroad tracks, they will probably do it in areas with some demand, and even if they build schools, they will likely adjust them to the age group with higher fertility rates. The same goes for basic infrastructure, so in areas where the population is increasing, even if there is nothing now, the potential for development is high. I was talking with Director Kim Hak-yeol on Smart Tube earlier, and now, I want to ask again about what you mentioned earlier about Geomdan specifically.

This is not about presenting it like this, but simply when looking at the data, if you set the search filter for apartments around 30 square meters that are relatively new, they are mostly located in the area of Gangseodong. Due to this trend, as you mentioned, young people who prefer newly built properties and are looking for affordable prices might consider looking in that direction. It seems like the supply is abundant in that area. What do you think about the future of areas with many new constructions in the western part of Seoul? I personally think Incheon's Seo-gu is promising. When I wrote a book about the future of real estate in Incheon two years ago, I focused a lot on Seo-gu. The reason is that the future value is expected to be the highest there due to the increasing demand and the fact that people from Seoul will have to move there eventually.

Due to the limited supply, people who have to commute to Seoul are considering Gyeonggi-do and Incheon. In Incheon, Seo-gu is the best option. I can't say the location is good right now because it's in the early stages of a new city. There are three phases in Geomdan New City, and currently, only the first phase is developed. The second and third phases are not supplied yet. It will take about 10 years for the entire project to be completed. So, the location won't be good until then, but it will improve over the next 10 years. After the location improves, the current price of around 900 million won will increase to over 1.5 billion won. Therefore, if you are a bit financially tight, you can consider taking out a loan to enter at around 600 million won.

Because it is an existing apartment, commuting to and from Seoul is a bit inconvenient, but it's not too far away. Considering the areas in Geomdan would be quite nice, and the location will definitely improve a lot more than now. In terms of location itself, it is very close to Seoul. If you drive, it takes about 30 minutes without traffic. But now, since public transportation is a bit inconvenient, you may need to transfer twice. It's necessary. So, it's a bit tough for now, but other new cities are the same. Originally, in the beginning, you may struggle, but later, the housing prices will increase a lot, and you will receive respect. Right now, anyway, transportation is a bit inconvenient. So, you need to consider the parts where you can enter at a lower price. If you have the money, I wouldn't recommend Geomdan. Seoul, children, Gwacheon, Seongnam, Gwangmyeong, Hanam.

I recommended it, but I actually think it is the best location that can be chosen for 600 to 700 million won or less. Also, the military base will probably offer the reserved land when the broadcast of the Pungpyeong reconstruction projects is aired. There is a pending sale in Pungpyeong, Grand Hills Life, which costs 400 million, and it has increased by 200 million. When moving in, it will be done with that. Since it will increase by 200 million, it has almost doubled in value in this area. So, last year, there were many opportunities to buy it at the original sale price. It's a redevelopment apartment, so there are many move-in rights and sales rights. But no one was interested last year, but eventually, it went up by 200 million won. That's how it is. Pungpyeong, well, the current location is not bad, it's ambiguous, but in the future, with better transportation, it will improve.

There is a subway now, so if you come to the line, you can go to Gangnam without transfer. It's better than Seo-gu. However, it seems like that now. Now, with the past prices or some information from the past, when you look at it now, you might think, Is this price too high? If so, then you mentioned something like that in the capital area. So, overall, is it a good atmosphere to buy in the capital area? If the location is good, it seems like it's okay to buy. And as I mentioned, if the location is bad, it seems like it won't work for solo apartments. There's no way around that. You should focus more on large complexes. You should consider newly built or nearly new buildings. For example, how should we determine the standards for nearly new or new buildings?

Entering Pangyo New Town started in 2008, so the sentiment has been much exceeded. The location is good, and it is considered a quasi-new town. In my opinion, Gwanggyo has risen a lot, then dropped significantly, and recently started rising again. Gwanggyo is a very good quasi-new town, and recently, the same goes for Dongtan, which had risen again. Except for newly built ones like Lotte Castle in Dongtan, the rest are quasi-type buildings. Among those areas that have dropped a lot, some are rebounding, which is good. However, there are really old-fashioned apartments with no transportation or good location. They may have been popular in the past, but even in large complexes, such properties need to be selected carefully. From now on, places with few new constructions should be avoided a bit. If the occupancy is not good, for example,

In Gangnam or Yongsan districts, it doesn't matter about reconstruction, but areas where reconstruction is happening in Gyeonggi-do or Incheon should be avoided now. New towns are continuously being developed, and it's hard to win in the competition among these new towns. So, what you're saying is that recently, even if the location is not very good, there is a high preference for new construction by certain demand groups. It seems overwhelming. Until here, it's like you have to live in a new building, you have to live. Even if transportation is a bit inconvenient, right? It shouldn't be too inconvenient, just a bit. If it's too inconvenient, it's not good. Even if it's a bit inconvenient now, it's not good right away, but it's a bit inconvenient. These are the areas where there are some mistakes now. People are going there. How do you see it? Probably, those things will happen first, and then they will go there. I think they will go there even though it's a bit inconvenient now, there is a confirmed future demand there.

I'm going to go through some difficulties for a while, maybe five or ten years, even if it's hard, but if things get better in the future, that's the reason. Right now, the demand is decreasing rapidly in local areas because things are moving up to the metropolitan area. We need to fill that gap. So, considering even such aspects, if we take that into account, there are some things that are confirmed in terms of harmony for the next five years. Entering into that is a good choice, I think. As you just mentioned, people are moving from local areas, and in reality, all these movements are reflected in statistics. Looking at these aspects, regions where the population is increasing may need to buy slightly more. That's right. First of all, in terms of demand, excluding Seoul, you need some expertise to analyze Seoul. People who have analyzed this a lot can analyze it. The population is decreasing.

Because of this, demand will drop. This is a completely nonsensical analysis, so just tear apart those who say that housing prices will drop. Don't even listen, just block it out with your ears. So, let's consider Seoul as a slave for now. Since that's a bit complicated, let's exclude Seoul. When the population increases, the demand increases as well. Especially when the young population increases, it's good. They are called the productive population. If you check the areas where the population from the 20s to the 40s is increasing, it seems like they will be fine for the next 10 years. Most of the infrastructure is also increasing in those areas, and the transportation network is expanding. The government is not stupid, right? When they lay down the railroad tracks, they will lay them in areas where there is some demand. Even if they build schools, they will try to make the age of childbearing women higher and improve the infrastructure.

Areas where populations are increasing are likely to develop even without anything right now. Because those are the parts we all know about, when we hear such stories, we hear about people who say things like this. Rather than building in Seoul, it may be better to live in newly developed areas in the metropolitan area, where there are many young children and babies. This could be more promising in the next 5 to 10 years. Do you agree with this because the demand is high? So, excluding Gangnam, Seocho, and Yongsan in Seoul, there are 25 districts in Seoul. For example, even if you buy a villa there, except for the competition and major events, it is better to consider areas like Gyeonggi-do, Incheon, and new cities as you mentioned. Demand and prices will rise as the area develops. However, even in Seoul, the prices in the suburbs are similar to those in apartments.

The apartments of that form won't be built. It's impossible because, you know, in the future, in about five years, elementary schools in Seoul will start closing down. Even now, many have closed. This is a predetermined future, so it can't be helped. If you think about it, young couples who want to raise children will find it difficult in underdeveloped areas in Seoul because there will be a shortage of schools. They might choose to move to a new city. Naturally, it seems right to focus on schools, including elementary, middle, and high schools. So, practically, more than half of the locations in Seoul will become unsuitable. As I mentioned, new cities are already prepared from the beginning with schools, including kindergartens, public schools, and various types of schools. So, you have to pay attention to schools.

These days, young people are smart, so they choose areas where they can receive education cheaply from the public sector and plan everything out until they move. Therefore, these new cities are likely to have a high possibility of residents staying for at least 10 years, so you can expect demand to be sustained for 10 years. Also, in those areas, politicians are trying to please the residents because they are their voter base, so they will likely do better. Maybe more than you thought. Then, on the other hand, even though they are slightly high-priced homes, let's ask about places like Gangnam. Earlier, you mentioned that it's okay to buy a villa, but still, for those who are buying a house, you cannot ignore considerations like profitability and appreciation rates. Currently, in Gangnam, the three districts, and so on.

In places like Seocho and Gangnam, many people tend to gather because of the sophisticated atmosphere. Some say that the demand is high due to this, but isn't the price too high? Even if you go up here, wouldn't the rate of increase not be that high? Some people talk like this. What do you think? Buying a house in Gangnam right now, there is no definite answer. So, because there are investment perspectives and practical perspectives, I was very curious about this field and studied it for a long time. It was neatly organized. It's simple. You can buy a house anytime. But the phase where you get returns is a bit different. So, the top-tier apartments just go up on their own without any competition. They will go without any competition. So, they will go up, stop, go up, and keep doing that, but the apartments below them...

When it comes up, it's pushed up unconditionally, so, unconditionally, it's important to build a new apartment. The important thing is the ambiguous ones that are below the middle. For example, most apartments will be sold, but I will talk about multi-family villas as well. In a good location, I don't plan to go to a five-unit villa at first. But when will this happen? When the time of worry comes. When comparing apartments in areas where the location is declining with five-unit villas in this area, if it's cheap, I will go, if it's expensive, I won't go at all. So, in the end, you have no choice but to go here because this area will rise, like the second or third-ranked areas. If you think that way, unless it's really unreasonable housing, just go for it to some extent. So, judge a little bit like that. Multi-family slightly old villas in the vicinity of the subway station.

I'm in Gangnam now. So, it's a bit unstable here, but if other places start to rise, then here will also start to rise. So, when other places start to rise, people come here later and the prices go up a bit. It's like a ripple effect. So, people who must live here compare and choose. At first, because the apartments here are cheaper, they don't come here. They stay here, but when this place becomes too expensive, they start to move towards the prime location. So, they push the prices up a bit from here. Therefore, the rising time is short, the magnitude is good, but it's a kind of rising trend. So, now in Gangnam, what was the peak has almost recovered. As you mentioned earlier, even if it's almost at the highest point, there is still an upward trend. Should we consider if this will continue or for now, it seems a bit smart.

Due to the one body, it has risen quite a bit, so now it's time for a little consolidation, adjusting the keys, so-called, is coming. The guides in these areas don't have a lot of trading volume. So, when one person trades, those become expensive. What time is it when there is a lot of trading volume? It's when the lower-grade one sells and goes up. Ultimately, the point of sale is now. So, in order for the lower-grade to be sold, the lower-grade needs to be sold again. So, it happens sequentially. So, when this becomes more of a timing thing, the A-grade areas will also see an increase in people, and they will rise another level. So, the overall mechanism needs to work together, but right now, the trading volume is not very high. So, we need to watch a bit. But compared to last year, the likelihood of that happening has increased a bit.

It seems that overall, the trading volume has increased a bit now, so if we switch to a different word, there are some demons, for example. Therefore, some statistically significant data is coming out compared to last year, so with this amount of trading volume, it seems worth analyzing. Honestly, in 2022, the trading volume was low compared to 2013, so it seems right to analyze this. The trading volume was like a few hundred to a thousand shares, so if we divide Seoul, there is one or two transactions in one complex. But it seemed right to consider this as the market price. I felt that way. Now, even with cases like Else, dozens of transactions are happening, so at this level, it seems worth looking at the facilities. So, now that you mention it, when you look at those complexes you mentioned earlier, there are large complexes with 3,000 units, 5,000 units, and so on. So, those who talk about only looking at that.

So, don't just think about the trading volume in other places. Here, when we talk about places like Jamsil, where there are large-scale complexes, isn't the price movement of trading volume somewhat representative of the market? Some people say things like this. What do you think? Having a lot of statistical data allows for better analysis, so it's easier for us to extract reliable data. If there is no trading volume, it can be a bit worrisome. So, I think that's what was being mentioned from that perspective. Another reason why large complexes are good is that the demand is stable. Even within the complex, if there are different sizes like 20 pyeong, 30 pyeong, 40 pyeong, there is movement within. So, because there is basic demand, it is actually a safe area. I'm mentioning this to consider that. One thing we need to be careful about here is that, as I mentioned earlier, there is demand because of the large complexes.

Due to high demand, we can accept these in a relaxed manner. Even in Seoul, there are small complexes where there is absolutely no trading volume. At this point, we cannot know for sure. However, it is definitely lower than this, but occasionally, there are trades that stand out. So, it's not on the same level. Therefore, it's important to have a basic understanding of the location and product analysis. Even if a book stands out, it seems appropriate to go in while judging that it is lower than this. If you can be careful with that part, it seems like a market worth investing in right now. If you look at the data of those large complexes, you can clearly see a slight upward trend. Looking at actual transactions of large complexes, that's the case.

Now, these are representative things. You can also see things like Else's Else Residences and Trist in the future. The most interesting thing to watch is the Olympic Park Foret. The price keeps going up. It's now over 21 billion won. It started at 12 billion won, but eventually exceeded 20 billion won. So, it's over. They say it's more expensive than Helio City. Experts who advised not to sign contracts because it will get more expensive with new apartments and larger complexes were also present here. If they come out, ask them what they think. However, after that, due to changes in government policies, I think it doesn't matter. It's a single house. Because when it comes to investment demand, it's meaningful. In the case of Olympic Park Foret, that was the case.

If you don't actually live there, you can't live there. It's a condition. It's a bit relaxed now, but even now, of course, it's a bit ambiguous as a three-year rule, but I still think that the condition of actual residence hasn't completely disappeared. So, I thought there was no room for it to decrease further, and I still think the same. And if you see that the normal price has gone up, then you should think that way. So, they can't reverse it for a while, but they followed up to Jamsil. So, this is a normal market, and now these prices are being recognized. They haven't moved in yet. If they move in, it will go up more. Hello City might slightly reverse. They will move together, but for a while, they might slightly reverse. I think that itself represents the market right now.

인구감소로 집값 하락? 이런 지역은 살아남는다 [빠숑 김학렬 소장 2부]

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서울 서부 지역의 잠재적 발전 가능성

한 지역의 젊은 인구가 증가한다는 것은 수요를 증가시키고 향후 발전을 의미합니다.

서울 서부, 특히 강서동과 인천 서구는 신규 건설과 수요 증가로 인해 향후 부동산 가치가 높을 것으로 예상됩니다.

검단신도시는 현재 개발 초기 단계이지만 향후 10년간 가치가 크게 상승할 것으로 예상되어 미래 유망 투자처로 꼽히고 있습니다.

대한민국 수도권의 부동산 투자 동향

풍평의 부동산 가격은 두 배로 올랐으며 교통 개발로 인해 향후 상승 가능성이 높습니다.

현재 수도권의 대규모 단지와 신축 또는 거의 신축에 가까운 건물에 초점이 맞춰져 있습니다.

압도적인 수요로 인해 교통이 다소 불편한 입지라도 신축에 대한 선호도가 높습니다.

인구 이동이 주택 수요에 미치는 영향

사람들이 대도시로 이동함에 따라 지방의 주택 수요는 감소하고 있으며, 이는 성장하는 지역의 주택 수요로 이어지고 있습니다.

특히 젊은 인구가 증가하는 지역을 분석하는 것은 향후 5~10년간의 주택 수요를 예측하는 데 매우 중요합니다.

이러한 성장 지역의 인프라 및 교통망 개발은 주택 수요와 가격을 상승시켜 투자 유망 지역으로 떠오를 가능성이 높습니다.

젊은이들이 특정 지역에서 저렴한 교육을 선택하면서 최소 10년 동안 주택에 대한 수요가 지속되고 있습니다.

이 지역의 정치인들은 유권자층을 만족시키는 데 집중하고 있으며, 이는 잠재적으로 부동산 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

강남 주택시장은 파급효과가 나타나고 있어 상승 추세가 지속될 가능성이 있지만, 그 안정성은 불확실합니다.

거래량이 부동산 가격에 미치는 영향

거래량은 부동산 가격에 큰 영향을 미치며, 특히 잠실과 같은 대규모 단지의 경우 거래량이 많을수록 가격이 상승합니다.

특히 다양한 평형을 보유한 단지의 거래량 증가는 안정적인 수요에 기인하기 때문에 안전한 투자 지역으로 꼽힙니다.

거래량 증가로 인한 통계 데이터의 증가는 분석과 의사결정을 위한 신뢰도 높은 정보를 추출하기 용이합니다.

서울 부동산 시장에 대한 투자 인사이트

서울 소형 단지의 거래량은 현재 저조하지만 간간이 눈에 띄는 거래가 이뤄지고 있습니다.

특히 올림픽파크포레는 헬리오시티를 제치고 120억에서 210억 원 이상으로 가격이 상승해 주목할 만합니다.

전문가들은 투자 수요와 신규 아파트 및 대단지 입주로 인한 추가 가격 상승 가능성을 고려해야 한다고 조언합니다.