자산 배분 포트폴리오: 안정적인 투자 수익을 위한 자산 다각화

안정적인 수익률, 변동성 감소, 투자 포트폴리오의 효과적인 리스크 관리를 위해서는 자산 배분 포트폴리오를 다각화하는 것이 중요합니다.

### 자산 다각화와 전천후 포트폴리오의 중요성
* 💼 "모든 계란을 한 바구니에 담지 말라"는 것은 투자에 있어 중요한 원칙으로, 위험을 효과적으로 관리하기 위해 **자산을 분산**해야 한다는 점을 강조합니다.
* 📉 주식과 채권은 서로 반대 방향으로 움직이는 일반적인 자산으로, 일반적으로 주식은 경제가 흔들릴 때 실적이 부진한 반면 **채권 가격은 상승하는 경향이 있습니다**.
* 💵 2008년 금융위기와 같은 사건에서 볼 수 있듯이 위기 상황에서는 달러 가치가 상승하는 경우가 많기 때문에 격동의 시기에는 현금을 보유하는 것이 필수적입니다**.
* 금은 일반적으로 **시간이 지남에 따라 가격이 상승**하기 때문에 **인플레이션에 대한 장기 헤지 수단**으로 권장됩니다.
* 🌍 개별 자산의 성과를 예측하기는 어렵기 때문에 **자산 배분은 다양한 카테고리에 분산되어야 합니다**.
* 📊 투자 전문가 레이 달리오가 주창한 전천후 포트폴리오는 **자산을 다각화하여 변동성을 줄이고 위험을 효과적으로 관리하는 것**을 말합니다.
* 📉 일반적으로 매년 실시하는 포트폴리오 리밸런싱은 **원하는 자산 배분을 유지하고 **다각화의 이점을 누리기 위해 매우 중요합니다.

When the economy grows, prices can only go up. Many people talk about the dollar as a safe asset, but when a crisis comes, the dollar becomes very expensive. I recommend including gold in your portfolio. Have you watched the finance spoon interest rate episode hosted by Shin Yeon-gi? If you watch that interest rate table, it will help you understand today's content better. Today, I want to talk about one of the most important principles when it comes to investing: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. You must have heard this principle a lot. It's a very important principle. It's about diversifying your assets. When we talk about asset allocation, many people say to diversify stocks. Of course, this is important, but in terms of managing risks stably, it's good to diversify assets. Generally speaking, let's say there are assets that move in opposite directions: Asset A and Asset B.

We are growing in the long term, but the directions in which Asset A and Asset B move are opposite. When Asset A is good, Asset B is not good, and when Asset B is good, Asset A is good; they move in opposite directions. When holding only one, it was very good when it was good, but when it is not good, losses can be significant. It is very difficult to endure that. However, holding both together is beneficial as it reduces such fluctuations. As you can see in the graph here, with the green line, you can make profits steadily and stably with less volatility. It would be good to find assets that move in accordance with the Asset Master and hold them together. Let's take a look. Stocks and bonds are representatives of assets that move in opposite directions. Usually, when the economy is not doing well, stock prices go down. When the economy is not doing well, companies tend to reduce new business expansions or investments.

So, if you take out less in loans, the demand for money decreases, causing interest rates to go down. In reality, when stock prices fall, bond prices often rise. When bond prices rise, it means interest rates are going down. Normally, they tend to move in the opposite direction. You might think that just dividing your investments between stocks and bonds would be enough, but it doesn't always work that way. In 2022, for example, when stocks were down and bonds weren't doing well, interest rates rose significantly. So, this alone is not sufficient. In 2022, looking at the KOSPI index and government bond yields, the KOSPI dropped significantly, and at that time, government bond yields also rose. Rising government bond yields

Bond prices falling mean a lot. So, at that time, stocks were not good, and bonds were not good either. It was said that these two move in opposite directions. This was also the case in 2020, during the early days of the pandemic. In fact, in early 2020, the USD to KRW exchange rate went up. When a crisis occurs, one must hold cash. From a foreign perspective, if they think about buying Korean stocks and bonds, they will bring dollars, convert them to KRW, and invest in Korean stocks and bonds. Now that a crisis has come, they will need dollars. Thinking this way, they will sell stocks and bonds, buy dollars, and take them out. Then, the value of the dollar goes up. What is the value of the dollar? It can be seen through the USD to KRW exchange rate. An increase in the exchange rate indicates that. So, when a crisis comes, selling Korean stocks...

Because you sell and buy dollars before going out, the KOSPI index and the dollar often move in opposite directions. During the 2008 financial crisis, the exchange rate increased significantly. At that time, it even reached 1500 won per dollar. You might wonder why the dollar became more popular in the U.S. financial crisis. This was because Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and many U.S. financial companies were struggling. To prevent bankruptcy, they needed to gather cash. Therefore, they had to sell existing assets to have dollars. So, it can be seen that the value of the dollar increased. You might think it's good to have a lot of dollars recently, but if you look at the graph here, from 2001 to 2007, the value of the dollar kept decreasing compared to the Korean won exchange rate.

In 2007, the dollar fell to 900 won. So, those who thought it would be good to buy a lot of dollars to make a profit might not have had a good time at that time. Instead, it seems like a good idea to gradually buy some dollars during such times and sell some when a crisis like the 2008 financial crisis hits to make a profit. When U.S. economic indicators improve, gold prices tend to fall. Usually, the U.S. dollar and gold move in the opposite direction. I recommend including gold in your portfolio. In the long run, it is because it can be a hedge against inflation. Inflation means prices are rising, and when the economy grows, prices can only go up. If you compare the price of jjajangmyeon (black bean noodles) 30 years ago to now, you will understand that prices rise.

I think it's good to keep this because it can be the best way to follow that. Talking about dollars as a safe asset, when a crisis comes, the dollar becomes very expensive. In a crisis, it tends to rise significantly, but when the crisis is over, it often drops again. However, in the long run, gold and silver have been steadily increasing, so you can prepare for rising prices. Well, it's not just about having gold. Do you remember the 1990s? In the 1990s, the price of gold kept falling. At the end of 1997 and 1998, when the IMF financial crisis came, there was the IMF bailout. That was the lowest point. Stocks and bonds were all bad. In 2022, the dollar was good, and raw materials were also good. Here in the graph, you can see the prices of copper and oil in 2022.

You can see a significant increase, right? Since the mid-2010s, people have not been interested in raw materials. It was very stable, so not many investments were made in this area. If it had been included here, while everything else was going down, this could have gone up in red. Then, psychologically, it would have been less burdensome. So, it's good to leave assets in various places. Predicting the economic situation is really difficult. It's hard to be sure about what will rise. If you invest only in something you are confident will rise, and it doesn't turn out well, it can be really tough to endure. By storing assets in different places, even if you don't know where things will go up, you can manage risks by knowing which side is good and which side is not. By allocating assets to various places like we are doing now, risk management is achieved.

I think you might be really curious if you can make a profit by doing this. There is a person named Ray Dalio among investment experts who distributes such assets in various places and talks about it. He said that no matter the season, you can make a stable profit, so he named it the All-Weather Portfolio. Just like Ray Dalio mentioned, when we include various assets as we are talking about now, there is a book that analyzed the past 30 years of data. The book was written by Tony Robbins from Moneyline, and according to that analysis, it showed an average of about 9.7% per year. So, even if you invest in an index, such as the S&P 500, looking at it for 30 years, it is higher. Of course, the S&P 500 also includes various stocks, but rather than that, the All-Weather Portfolio now.

When the market is falling or in such situations, the volatility clearly decreases. If the All Weather Portfolio has experienced losses about four times in 30 years, in a year like 2022 when both stocks and bonds are not performing well, although there is some loss, the volatility has certainly decreased, and the possibility of experiencing the largest maximum loss has also significantly decreased. So, for instance, in the case of the S&P 500, the maximum loss was seen in 2008 with a -37% decrease. At that time, the All Weather Portfolio only had a -3.9% loss. Therefore, if it were to reach -40%, it would be really difficult to endure. The All Weather Portfolio seems to be able to greatly reduce the worst losses by diversifying assets in various places. It may seem like 88% or 99% is not much, but in reality, buying things like Bitcoin or certain stocks and making profits of 100% or 200% is like this.

They may not be able to follow, but those people can incur significant losses. By reducing those losses, and reducing volatility, you can achieve stable returns through asset allocation. This effect of asset allocation is significant. Asset allocation is not a one-time thing. Rebalancing is needed about once a year. Rebalancing literally means rebalancing. It is necessary to diversify assets. Here, let's say there is a person who simply invests 50-50 in stocks and bonds. After a year, let's say the stocks have increased to 150. The stock price has risen a lot, and the bonds have slightly increased to 52. Then, people may think, Oh, the stock return is very good. I want to sell some bonds and invest in stocks. However, this should not be done. Instead of selling what you had in stocks,

Bring two volumes and do it every ten days, so it will be balanced 50-50. This is called rebalancing, which helps to maintain balance. Typically, when a specific asset undergoes significant changes, it is necessary to rebalance at that time. Still, it is also necessary to check regularly at least once a year. So, you can choose a specific date, like your birthday or any other date. Set a day for rebalancing your asset allocation, and it will be beneficial.

부자들이 선택한 가장 완벽한 자산배분 포트폴리오 구성법! ㅣ김나영 교사  [재테크숟가락]

부자가 되고 싶은 당신을 위한 경제 지침서.
조선일보가 만드는 재테크 종합전문채널 '머니'입니다.

✉️강연 및 협업 문의
money@chosun.com


조선일보 머니

투자 포트폴리오 다각화의 중요성

자산을 분산하는 것은 위험을 효과적으로 관리하기 위한 투자의 중요한 원칙입니다.

주식과 채권처럼 서로 반대 방향으로 움직이는 자산을 찾아 변동성을 줄이고 안정적인 수익을 확보하는 것이 중요합니다.

그러나 주식과 채권의 움직임이 일반적인 패턴과 일치하지 않았던 2022년 시장의 예에서 볼 수 있듯이 단순히 주식과 채권에 분산 투자하는 것만으로는 충분하지 않을 수 있습니다.

채권 가격 하락은 위기를 의미하며 달러화 가치 상승으로 이어집니다.

위기 시에는 한국 주식과 채권을 팔고 달러를 사들이는 경향이 있어 달러 대 원화 환율이 상승합니다.

2008년 미국 금융위기 당시 금융회사들이 현금 확보에 나서면서 환율이 크게 상승한 것처럼 달러화 가치도 상승하는 경향이 있습니다.

달러는 위기 시 크게 상승하는 경향이 있지만 위기가 끝나면 하락하는 안전자산인 반면, 금과 은은 장기적으로 꾸준히 상승해 왔습니다.

2022년 구리와 석유 가격은 안정세를 보이다가 크게 상승하여 원자재 투자의 변동성을 보여주고 있습니다.

특히 예측할 수 없는 경제 상황에서는 다양한 유형의 투자에 자산을 분산하는 것이 좋은 리스크 관리 전략입니다.

전천후 포트폴리오: 안정적인 투자 전략

레이 달리오의 전천후 포트폴리오는 30년 동안 최소 손실 기록으로 계절에 관계없이 안정적인 수익을 제공합니다.

포트폴리오의 다각화는 큰 손실 위험을 효과적으로 줄여주므로 시장 침체기에 신뢰할 수 있는 옵션이 될 수 있습니다.

S&P 500에 비해 전천후 포트폴리오는 변동성이 현저히 낮고 최대 손실이 줄어들 가능성이 높습니다.

자산 배분 및 리밸런싱의 중요성

자산 배분은 손실과 변동성을 줄여 안정적인 수익률로 이어집니다.

일반적으로 1년에 한 번 실시하는 리밸런싱은 자산을 다변화하고 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 유지하는 데 매우 중요합니다.

리밸런싱에는 자산 배분을 원래 비율로 조정하는 작업이 포함되며, 이는 장기적인 재정적 성공을 위해 필수적입니다.