펠로톤의 흥망성쇠: 주의해야 할 비즈니스 이야기

펠로톤의 과신은 폭발적인 팬데믹 성장과 변화하는 시장 수요를 충족시키지 못하면서 급격한 하락으로 이어졌습니다.

### 펠로톤의 흥망성쇠: 팬데믹의 사랑에서 고군분투하는 피트니스 거인으로 거듭나기까지
* 📈 2012년 존 폴리가 설립한 펠로톤은 빠르게 성장하여 **140만 명의 회원**을 보유하고 있으며, **2019년 상장 당시 기업가치가 80억 달러**에 달했습니다.
* 🚲 팬데믹으로 인해 수요가 급증하여 **2020년 11월에는 전년 대비 매출이 200% 증가**했습니다.
* 💰 펠로톤의 주가는 **2020년 말에 약 500억 달러로 정점**을 찍으며 월스트리트에서 탄탄한 투자처로 자리 잡았습니다.
* 📉 하지만 2022년 초까지 Peloton의 주가는 급락했고 **시가총액은 20억 달러 미만**으로 떨어졌습니다.
* 🏋 ️↪f_200D↩♂️ Peloton은 비용 관리를 위해 **2022년에 생산을 중단**했으며, **연간 순손실은 28억 달러**에 달했습니다.
* 🔄 분석가들은 **Peloton이 기존 사용자 기반을 육성하는 대신 마케팅에 집중**하면서 잘못된 분야에 투자했을 수 있다고 지적합니다.
* 🔮 일부에서는 잠재적인 인수 또는 사모펀드 투자에 대해 추측하는 등 **Peloton의 미래는 불확실**합니다.
* 🚴 잠재 고객에게는 지금이 구매하기 좋은 시기일 수 있는데, **펠로톤이 자전거와 트레드밀의 가격을 인하**했기 때문입니다.

In 2020, Peloton experienced incredible growth, quickly becoming a household name in the connected fitness space. The trouble is, Peloton believed the story around it a little too much, and it didn't entirely recognize the market opportunities around it. So Peloton was founded in 2012 by John Foley, who was a former Barnes & Noble executive. It raised a total of $4 million that year in angel investments in a Series A round. The next year, it raised $300,000 in a Kickstarter campaign to try and bring its project to life. Soon after, Peloton started shipping bikes and it opened its first studio in New York City, too. I want to welcome you to Peloton Studios, New York. It's kind of part of that cohort of boutique spin brands like SoulCycle or Flywheel that were popping up all over the place during that time. But Peloton's whole shtick, of course, isn't people going

to a studio to ride. It's the bikes that are at home with tablets attached where people can stream classes. Peloton's sales took off. Its instructors like Robin Arzon and Cody Rigsby and Ally Love became stars. Get off the couch and move your ass. Do 10 squats. They amassed thousands of followers on social media and appeared regularly on talk shows. Rigsby was even on Dancing With the Stars. Peloton has also inspired some copycat connected fitness products. Think of Mirror, which is what it sounds like, a mirror that hangs on your wall, but also is for fitness, or Tonal, which is for weight training. In 2018, Peloton expanded its offering and launched a treadmill to go along with its bike. Let's row baby. Let's get it, Peloton. And nowadays, it has a rower, too. Peloton was so popular that it grew to have 1.4 million members.

and was valued at $8 billion when it went public in the fall of 2019. A couple of months later, Peloton made a splash after its holiday ad went viral. It is a husband giving his wife a Peloton bike for Christmas, which seems nice enough, I guess. First ride, I'm a little nervous, but excited. Let's do this. Then she spends the entire year making these pained-looking selfie videos of herself on the bike and kind of puts them together into a video for the next Christmas. And there was quite a bit of backlash around that. It's not great to think that a husband is kind of giving his wife something so that she can be thin and fit, and Peloton had to do a little bit of cleanup after that. Peloton's big break came with the pandemic and the onset of COVID-19. Everybody's stuck at home. The gyms are shut down,

and a lot of people are sitting around to think, Oh, I might as well get a Peloton. Its sales surged by 200% in November 2020 compared to the year before, and it had its first billion-dollar quarter the last three months of that year. Obviously, with that big surge in demand, Peloton had to try and react to meet that demand, and a lot of customers were complaining at the time that they were waiting months and months for the bikes. So what Peloton did naturally is to invest in its supply chain and in manufacturing in an attempt to catch up and meet that demand. Peloton's stock price exploded during that time, too. Its market cap peaked around $50 billion in late 2020. Like Zoom and Clorox, it was a solid stay-at-home bet for Wall Street. The story around Peloton was really exciting, kind of going from zero to 100 very fast.

It's an appealing narrative. But the problem is sort of that Peloton believed the story a little bit too much. It really bought into the narrative, and it didn't really see that it wasn't really real, and that's kind of how it landed where it is today. Peloton eventually caught up on the supply side. The problem is that by the time it did, the demand wasn't really there anymore. The COVID vaccines had come out. A lot of gyms were opening back up, and people didn't want to work out at home anymore. People were happy to leave their homes. COVID also pulled forward a lot of demand for Peloton's products. That means somebody who maybe would've bought a bike in 2022 or 2023 did so in 2020. There's also just a limited number of people who will ever buy a Peloton at all, especially given how expensive they are. The basic bike now,

and it's cheaper than it used to be, is $1,500. Before, it was $2,000. The treadmill is $3,000. And again, these are the basic levels, so the fancier ones are even more. This is a really big investment. And as we know with a lot of fitness products, a lot of us have a lot of aspirations about going to the gym and getting fit, and we fail at those, and then we wind up with expensive stuff that we don't want anymore. And even if you really are a huge Peloton fan, you're not going to buy six bikes, right? You're going to have one bike, maybe you'll get a treadmill, but you're not buying a bunch of equipment. Peloton paused production in early 2022 in an attempt to control costs. By the end of June, its full-year net loss was $2.8 billion. Peloton has also seen its fair share of leadership shakeups.

John Foley, who led the company for its entire existence, stepped down as CEO in February of 2022. He handed control over to Barry McCarthy, who'd previously done stints at Spotify and Netflix. McCarthy's out now, too. He left in 2024, and a pair of interim CEOs took over for him. Business-wise, Peloton just hasn't been able to find its footing. Its stock price has plunged, and its market cap is under $2 billion. Remember, at its peak, it was valued at $50 billion, so 25 times that. The company's had to issue recalls for both its treadmills and its bikes. It's done layoffs, and some of its star instructors have headed for the exit. I am moving on from Peloton. I'm choosing to close my chapter at Peloton. It's time to take a break from teaching at Peloton. Peloton's had some weird PR debacles, too.

If you think back to late 2021 when And Just Like That... premiered, which is the revival of Sex and the City, in the very first episode, Mr. Big dies while on a Peloton bike, also not a great look. And after that, Peloton again tried to do some cleanup with an ad featuring the actor kind of making light of the situation. But pretty soon after that, he was hit with sexual assault allegations, and so again, kind of an unfortunate oops for Peloton. But Peloton isn't a lost cause. It has about 3 million paid subscribers who all give it $40 every month. That's a great business model. Holding onto those subscribers isn't an easy task, though Peloton is doing a decent job. Still, given the state of its finances and debt, it's not clear Peloton can make it work. A lot of Peloton's problem,

at least according to some analysts, is that it's investing in the wrong places. It really, again, to get back to this idea that it believed its own story, it's been really focused on investing in marketing and in growing its customer base. And a better strategy might be to focus on the people who do have it and do like it and its user base and really cultivating those people. Again, it has a lot of subscribers. It also wants to keep those people around, and it does have a fair amount of churn. It does lose subscribers sometimes, but it's done so far a pretty decent job of holding on to people. I think another thing to think about is that Peloton's story would look different if the pandemic hadn't happened. If you hadn't seen this giant surge in the middle, if you hadn't seen that stock pop, you might look at Peloton today and say, This doesn't look so bad. And they might not have also made some of the investments

that have come back to bite them. There's also a reality that fitness trends are constantly changing. We tend to treat fitness like a fad or like fashion. If you think back to Tae Bo in the '90s or the ThighMaster in the '80s, a lot of those fads have come and gone, and it's hard not to look at Peloton and think that's probably where this is headed. I will note here that Tae Bo does still exist, which most people don't know. People also get bored with workouts. They're kind of looking to do a new thing all of the time. And even if you really love Peloton and you think the instructors are super fun and entertaining, you just don't want to be on a stationary bike forever. For people who do really love Peloton, you don't have to worry that your favorite instructor is going away tomorrow. There's always speculation that maybe a bigger company would buy Peloton,

or maybe private equity would swoop in. It's not going under tomorrow. And I do think also the good news is if you don't have a Peloton and you've been thinking about buying one, it's not the worst time to buy. The bikes and treadmills are cheaper than they used to be. Peloton's mistake is that it got too high on its own supply, and it sort of believed the hype around it a little too much. It thought it would grow forever. Now it's come back down to Earth, and that comedown feels like a crash.

Peloton, The Fitness Craze That Couldn't Last | Business Insider Explains | Business Insider

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펠로톤의 빠른 성장과 도전 과제

2012년 존 폴리가 설립한 펠로톤은 폭발적인 성장세를 보이며 2020년까지 커넥티드 피트니스의 대명사가 되었습니다.

스타 강사가 이끄는 스트리밍 수업과 함께 가정용 자전거를 제공하는 이 회사의 독특한 모델은 2019년까지 140만 명의 회원을 유치하고 80억 달러의 가치를 인정받았습니다.

하지만 펠로톤은 논란이 된 홀리데이 광고로 인한 반발에 직면하고 시장 기회를 인식하는 데 어려움을 겪으며 초기 성공에도 불구하고 어려움을 겪었습니다.

펠로톤의 매출은 2020년 11월에 200% 급증하여 처음으로 10억 달러 매출을 달성하고 시가총액이 500억 달러로 최고치를 기록했습니다.

이 회사는 높은 수요를 충족하는 데 어려움을 겪었고, 이로 인해 고객 불만과 공급망 지연이 발생했습니다.

그러나 코로나19 제한이 완화되고 체육관이 다시 문을 열면서 Peloton의 수요는 급감했고, 공급 과잉과 제한된 고객 기반에 직면하게 되었습니다.

펠로톤의 기본 자전거 가격은 2,000달러에서 1,500달러로, 러닝머신은 3,000달러로 떨어졌습니다.

이 회사는 2022년 6월까지 28억 달러의 순손실을 기록하고 주가가 급락하여 시가총액이 20억 달러 미만으로 떨어지는 등 심각한 재정적 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

펠로톤은 경영진 교체, 리콜, 정리해고, 홍보 실패를 겪으며 최고 가치인 500억 달러 이후 재기의 발판을 마련하기 위해 고군분투하고 있습니다.

펠로톤은 영화 '그리고 그렇게.

'에서 미스터 빅의 캐릭터가 펠로톤 자전거를 타다 사망한 후 배우의 성폭행 혐의가 제기되면서 반발에 직면했습니다.

3백만 명의 유료 구독자를 보유하고 있음에도 불구하고 Peloton의 재정적 어려움과 높은 부채로 인해 장기적인 성공에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

분석가들은 마케팅과 고객 성장에 집중하는 Peloton의 전략이 잘못되었을 수 있으며, 기존 사용자층을 육성하는 것이 더 나은 전략이라고 말합니다.

피트니스 트렌드의 변화하는 환경

피트니스 트렌드는 끊임없이 진화하고 있으며, 태보와 쓰리스마스터와 같은 유행이 왔다가 사라지기도 합니다.

펠로톤도 그 인기에도 불구하고 비슷한 운명에 직면할 수 있지만, 곧 망하지는 않을 것입니다.

펠로톤의 실수는 성장 잠재력을 과대평가한 것이었고, 그 결과 어려운 시련을 겪게 되었습니다.