PayPal: 절박한 관리 및 비즈니스 위험

### PayPal 분석: 구조적 위험을 안고 있는 절박한 투자
* 💰 지난 12개월 동안 총 결제액 **14% 성장**, **9% 매출 성장**, **50억 달러의 강력한 현금 흐름**과 같은 긍정적인 재무 수치에도 불구하고 PayPal에는 우려스러운 징후가 있습니다.
* 📉 활성 계정의 전년 대비 성장률은 **1%에 불과**하며, 경영진의 자사주 매입 강화는 **잉여현금흐름의 상당 부분을 보상**으로 받는 숨겨진 측면이 있습니다.
* 🏦 "**50억의 현금 흐름**을 창출하고 발행 주식의 **5.5%를 매입**한다면 경영진은 그 잉여 현금 흐름의 **25%를 보상**으로 받는다는 뜻입니다."
* 🔄 경영진이 자사주 매입에 집중하고 주주 보상을 보상의 상당 부분으로 사용하는 것은 **절박한 조치**로 볼 수 있습니다.
* 🎯 전환의 해, 전략적 개선, **'PayPal의 빠른 차선' 및 Venmo 광고**와 같은 이니셔티브는 성장을 지속하기 위한 보다 절박한 조치로의 전환을 의미합니다.
* 🔒 Apple Pay와 같은 결제 수단의 증가로 경쟁 환경이 심화되고 있으며, **PayPal의 경쟁 우위에 대한 질문에 대한 CEO의 답변은 일관성이 없는 것**으로 간주되었습니다.
* 📉 구조적 위험을 고려할 때 주식의 현금 흐름 수익률은 인식되는 **8%가 아니라 5%**에 가깝고, 주가수익비율이 **15 또는 20인 경우에도 영구적인 자본 손실의 위험**이 상당합니다.
* ❌ 침식되는 해자, 절박한 경영 움직임, 바이백에 대한 지출로 드러나는 암묵적인 자신감으로 인해 **PayPal은 높은 잠재적 보상과 함께 상당한 리스크**가 있는 투자처가 되었습니다.

PayPal은 구조적인 문제, 경쟁 우위 약화, 경영진의 필사적인 자사주 매입으로 인해 영구적인 자본 손실의 위험에 직면해 있습니다.

good day fellow investors. PayPal is always a stock requested in the comments, and I haven't analyzed it properly already for two years. A lot has changed since I told you not to buy at 126, and then we later updated a little bit. Now, over the last 12 months, it is a slightly negative downtrend, but I want to discuss how PayPal seems a little bit desperate to me, and there is the risk of permanent capital loss. Let's start with the discussion. If we look at the numbers, it all looks good. We have total payment volume 14% up, revenue 9% up in the last quarter. That is their transaction margins. Everything looks good, and even earnings are positive. If I look at it from a 12-month perspective, we can have, let's say, with the growth, four plus bucks per share, which is a P/E ratio of 15. That is just a little bit less than half of the S&P 500 P/E ratio for a company that is still growing high single digits. P/E ratio 15. If that continues, that is cheap.

stock. However, active accounts, they are still there year on year growth just 1% down, but all other things are slowly growing. If I look at cash flows, those are extremely strong, 1.7 billion, 1.8 billion in just one quarter, and their plan is to keep working on their cash flows. And you can see here five billion over the last 12 months, which is five billion on the market cap. It's a great, great return, and all will likely be used for share repurchases. And they reduced weighted average shares by 5%. Now, here is a little catch that they don't tell you, 5.47% reduction of shares over the last 12 months. And you can see that they have intensified that share repurchases. But when I do my calculations, 5 billion on the market cap of 61 billion is a little bit more than 5%. Then I go and check the number of shares outstanding, and you can see here that they lowered the number of shares as they said by 5.5%. The problem is that five billion on

the current market cap. And we have seen that the stock price over the last 12 months was here and there, no big volatility, there no big change, but 5 billion on the market cap is 7.8%. That's I have 2.3 percent that has simply vanished. And that Vanishing has happened because the management is receiving a lot, a lot of shares as compensation. If they make 5 billion, that is 7.8%, and they just buy back 5.5% of the shares outstanding, it means that the management is getting 25% of that free cash flow as compensation, if in the form of stocks. Now they have included this shareholder compensation in there, let's say enhancing accountability and transparency, okay, that's good, but it's still happening. And I think this is a big deal because it shifts also the Management's Focus from I'm trying to get as much as I can while I can. If it doesn't work, I'll go work somewhere else. If it works great. And this is the first.

desperation risk where you don't really care much about the shareholders. You are pushing all the cash flows into the BuyBacks, getting shares, selling shares, and who cares. That's one, of course, I might be wrong, but it's the first red flag here after watching PayPal for longer than I have gone into reading the transcript of the last earnings SC and transition year. These are the most dangerous words: turnaround, strategic improvement, innovation into strategy, etc., etc., that you can hear when it comes to businesses' transition. Okay, it might work, it might not work, as Buffett says, never ever invest in a turnaround. And then there are these ideas: fast lane by PayPal. Yes, PayPal has a great legacy position within the world, but I think that over time it will be harder and harder to keep that one. More desperate measures: stable coins, whatever, looking to get more money on Venmo, then this advertising. Now you want to pay with PayPal and then also get an advertisement. So they hire someone from Uber, and that is exactly what I was telling you. If it works, great. If it

doesn't work. I'll go work somewhere else. And isn't that the story with Uber? No, and then P2P okay platform, great customer base. But if you start messing with that, there is so much competition. And maybe they will be able to do it, but maybe not. And here is a great question by Brian King from Deutsche. And I think this is already a few times that I have selected really him from a conference call. And then he asks straight on, what's the key here? What's the elephant in the room? You know, the naysayers on PayPal would say the company is structurally challenged with the rise of payment methods like Apple pay, etc. You have been now the CEO at PayPal over six months. What do you think naysayers are missing on the competitive advantages PayPal still has in the market, in particular to grow branded? And then you can pause a little bit here on the answer, but the answer is inconsistent. Yes, what they are doing, what this, what that, but there is really nothing that would convince me.

that's okay. This is not cheap. This will turn around. It might, it might not. So, my conclusion on PayPal here is that there is competition and doing business will be harder and harder. Buybacks are there to keep the shares higher, to get as much compensation as they can. They are getting 25% of whatever the company makes in a year. It's just going to management, a share-based compensation. Therefore, they have to spend on buybacks to keep the stock price higher. The cash flow yield is not around 8%. It's closer to 5% because of this stock compensation. And even the P/E ratio of 15 or 20, or it will maybe go a little bit lower, it's not enough to justify the risk. Because if they have really structural issues, then there is the risk of permanent capital loss. So, I would maybe there will be a high reward, but there is also significant risk if they just start slowing down next quarters, next year. This stock is 50% down, which is a huge risk. So, anything can happen.

I'm out of PayPal. This is my last video on PayPal because of the structural business risks. No more long term. The mode is eroding, and therefore, also the desperate moves by the management is something that does not inspire me. And spending now on BuyBacks. Of course, the stock is down and cheaper, but that implies shows their confidence that it will work, the turnaround, the transition. But if it doesn't, then it's just money that rewards those who are selling the share. As always, thanks for watching. I'll see you in the next video.

PAYPAL Stock Analysis (PYPL Stock Risk & Reward)

Stock market investing is not easy but if you apply a little bit of common sense, it can be much easier. 

Helping people to make smarter financial decisions is the mission of this channel. 

You can make better financial decisions by:

Having the right investing mindset (we do not speculate and hope - we see how the risk and reward fits our investment goals).

Doing good analyses (earnings and cash flows alongside a margin of safety is what makes a stock portfolio grow over the long-term)

Enjoy!

Disclaimer: All videos are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or security, or to provide you with an investment strategy. Nor is this intended to be relied upon as the basis for making any purchase, sale or investment decision regarding any security. Rather, this merely expresses my opinion, which is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate.

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

PayPal 재고 분석하기: 혼합된 그림

페이팔의 재무 수치는 총 결제액, 매출, 거래 마진에서 긍정적인 성장세를 보이고 있으며 상대적으로 낮은 15의 P/E 비율을 보이고 있습니다.

그러나 페이팔은 강력한 현금 흐름과 강화된 자사주 매입에도 불구하고 활성 계정이 약간 감소하고 있는 상황입니다.

주식 감소와 환매를 위한 현금 사용의 불일치에 대한 우려가 있으며, 이는 영구적인 자본 손실의 잠재적 위험을 나타냅니다.

경영진 보상이 회사 성과에 미치는 영향

경영진의 높은 수준의 주식 보상으로 인해 회사의 시가총액이 크게 감소했습니다.

이러한 접근 방식은 주주 이익에서 벗어나 회사의 재무 안정성을 위험에 빠뜨릴 수 있습니다.

자사주 매입과 신규 벤처에 집중하는 등 회사의 공격적인 전략은 장기적인 성공에 대한 우려를 불러일으킵니다.

PayPal은 특히 Apple Pay와 같은 대체 결제 수단과의 시장 경쟁이 심화되고 있습니다.

회사의 CEO는 이러한 어려움을 인정하면서도 경쟁 우위에 대해서는 일관성 없는 확신을 보이고 있습니다.

주가를 유지하기 위한 자사주 매입과 높은 주식 기반 보상으로 인해 회사의 재무 안정성과 투자자들의 위험에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

페이팔의 구조적인 사업 리스크와 침체 모드가 유튜버의 장기 투자에 대한 우려를 불러일으키고 있습니다.

경영진의 필사적인 움직임과 바이백에 대한 집중은 신뢰를 불러일으키지 못하고 있습니다.

주가가 하락하고 가격이 낮아진 것은 회사의 턴어라운드에 대한 확신이 부족하다는 것을 반영하며, 주식을 매도하는 사람들에게 잠재적으로 보상을 제공할 수 있습니다.