기 라이브 시작합니다. 원래 오늘 이 시간에 하마스 최고 지도자 한니야의 암살 사건을 다루기 위해서 지금 중동 지역에서 계속 취재하는 알파고 시나씨 씨가 와 계십니다. 오늘 아시다시피 우리 증시가 많이 내렸습니다. 하락폭이 큽니다. 검은 금요일이라는 기사로 지금 언론들이 벌써 기사화하고 있는데, 우리 시장을 잠깐 분석해보고 중동 상황도 알아보겠습니다. 한투증권의 목 센터에 박재영 차장님을 급하게 모셨습니다. 어서 오세요. 안녕하십니까? 급하게 모셨는데 나오셔서 감사합니다. 오늘 지점에서 어떤 이야기를 제일 많이 들으셨어요? 고객분들에게 왜 이렇게 많이 떨어지냐고, 떨어져도 이거 정말 아, 사실 이렇게 많이 떨어지면 연락도 잘 안 오십니다. 서로 힘드니까요. 일단 하락한 것은 전일 미국 증시가 굉장히...

There has been a significant decline, especially centered around technology stocks. Since last year until about June this year, the market was continuously driven by big tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Qualcomm, whose stock prices rose significantly, including Microsoft. However, yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 7%. This decline is not the end; currently, the U.S. is in the earnings announcement season. Intel, during its earnings announcement, saw a substantial drop in its stock price. After the market closed, it fell by 19% in after-hours trading. The earnings report was extremely disappointing, and there were even news of massive layoffs. Intel has now reached a point where it seems to have no solution. Just to mention, the EPS...

In the United States, most companies provide guidance. In our country, only a few large corporations disclose their expected earnings for the year or the second quarter. However, in the U.S., almost all companies do this. Analysts use this guidance to create consensus estimates, which tend to be quite accurate. This is similar to when you were in school and your mom would ask you how you think you would rank. You might say you think you'll be third, but you would tell her you expect to be fifth, as a more conservative estimate. Typically, well-behaved students do this. Similarly, companies also tend to be conservative when providing guidance. As a result, their actual performance often exceeds their forecasts.

Intel did not achieve 80% of the conservative guidance consensus. As a result, it fell by 19% in terms of time. Overall, the performance of companies is good, but a few have missed expectations, causing some instability. Intel holds symbolic significance; although its share in the U.S. stock market is not large, it represents the overwhelming Intel Inside from our childhood, a company that delivered exceptional performance and was a leading representative of the U.S. semiconductor industry. The fact that it missed expectations carries a certain symbolic weight. Additionally, the U.S. manufacturing indicators were announced yesterday. At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, many important indicators are released. The ISM manufacturing PMI was announced, and it came in below 50. What does this mean? The PMI indicates...

We conduct surveys with purchasing managers. What do you think about this month? Do you think the economy will be good? If you think it will be good, rate it above 50; if you think it will be bad, rate it below 5. Are you going to stock up a lot, or is export doing well right now? This is what the survey is about. It is often used as a soft data indicator for sentiment. If the manufacturing PMI is good, it suggests the economy will improve; if the manufacturing PMI is bad, it suggests the economy will decline. In fact, the manufacturing PMI doesn't hold much significance in the U.S. because the country is about 70% consumer-driven. The manufacturing sector doesn't sustain the economy, but we still use the manufacturing PMI to predict economic conditions. If the manufacturing PMI is poor, we might think, Oh, the economy seems to be struggling. In the past, if the economy was bad, people would think, The Fed will lower interest rates, and stock prices would rise significantly. However, just the other day, after the FOMC meeting, investors were all reacting in a certain way.

You may have felt it. I watched the Powell press conference, and the first thing I noticed was that Powell is no longer concerned about inflation; he is focused on the economy. He kept saying, We have two mandates, referring to employment and inflation. Until recently, he was constantly talking about inflation, saying it wasn't under control and that while it is decreasing, it is still not at our target of 2%. He mentioned that he would continue to look at the data. However, this time he noted that inflation is being managed well. Although we are not yet at the desired level, prices of goods have started to decline, and now I see that prices of goods, housing, and services are all falling. Things are going well as we have been doing, so I will pay a little more attention to employment.

There has been a lot of discussion with this nuance. Yes, inflation in employment has been controlled, and if we look at employment, if we lower interest rates, employment may slow down. If employment slows down, investors might think that a recession is a bigger problem than inflation. Tonight, at 9:30 PM our time, employment data will be released, which is very important. Considering next week’s events, the CPI next week could be even more significant. This is because there is already a consensus that interest rates will be lowered in September. While lowering interest rates is good, if a recession occurs, it would be very bad for the stock market. The best scenario would be to lower interest rates softly without a recession. However, the manufacturing indicators have come out poorly, and Intel's performance is...

It’s a disaster. If the employment data comes out poorly again this evening, isn’t that heading towards a recession? This sense of fear seems to be dragging down the stock prices. Last year, there were concerns about a so-called hard landing, right? The hope was to control inflation while smoothly landing the economy by slightly lowering interest rates and having the stock market perform well. This is what investors wish for. However, suddenly, if the employment data comes out too poorly and we face a hard landing, that is the most undesirable scenario for the market. Let’s ask about our market. We don’t have much time prepared, so I think all our investors must be thinking the same thing. I understand, but when the market goes up, they rise together, so why does our market go down when the U.S. market goes down? This question is probably what our viewers want to ask the most.

It seems that, for now, our Samsung Electronics hasn't risen. Yes, it’s just that Samsung Electronics hasn't gone up, and you might think that way because of its market share. Why has the U.S. risen so much? Why does it keep going up? In the U.S., large-cap stocks like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google have risen significantly due to AI influence. This has pulled the index up along with it. If you look at the Larry index, there’s hardly any increase. Small and mid-cap stocks have barely risen. We are the opposite; since Samsung Electronics hasn't risen, and its market share is about 25%, it has been holding down the index. However, if you think about it, Hanmi Semiconductor and SK Hynix have risen significantly, especially related to AI. Also, LS Electric and Hyundai Electric have seen substantial increases in the power equipment sector due to AI.

Next, small to medium-sized cosmetics companies that are doing well in exports, and companies like Samyang Foods that are also performing well in exports, have seen their stock prices rise four to five times. So, the idea that the market hasn't risen refers to the index not increasing, but specific sectors have risen significantly. However, those stocks have been falling a lot lately. Since NVIDIA's stock has dropped, Hynix's stock has also fallen significantly, and the same goes for Hanmi Semiconductor and LS Electric. Recently, small to medium-sized cosmetics stocks have also dropped a lot. This is a realization of profits. Semiconductor stocks have held up relatively well, and the secondary battery stocks have also performed decently. How should we view this? The market, in fact, doesn't mean that I should sell my stocks and leave. Those who invest in stocks continue to hold on. So, what will happen to the stock prices here?

Since it has risen a lot, those who sold here might be wondering what to buy next. Institutions also need to invest the money that clients have entrusted to them, right? So, I think we can see that the electric vehicle battery sector, which has been struggling all year, has experienced a slight rebound. It's not that the outlook for electric vehicle batteries has improved so much today that people rushed to buy; rather, it should be viewed as a modest recovery. 

Hynix has risen significantly, and for a while, it has been the main driver of our stock market instead of Samsung Electronics. If someone sees that Hynix has risen by 10%, they might think there was an earthquake at the 2,000 factory. Is this excessive, or how should we interpret it? Foreign investors have sold a lot, so looking at the supply and demand, foreign investors actually sold a significant amount of stocks today, and institutions also sold a lot.

Today, individuals bought stocks, while most foreign investors sold their shares. The most sold stock on the KOSPI today was SK Hynix, which saw a sell-off of 3.7 trillion won, followed by Samsung Electronics with 2.8 trillion won sold. There was also some bad news the day before, indicating that the U.S. would prevent the sale of HBM to China, which negatively affected investor sentiment. Additionally, there are aspects where Samsung Electronics has risen more than others, which may have influenced this situation. However, I still believe that the stock is very cheap. If we look at the fundamentals, Hynix earned 5 trillion won this quarter, although there are ongoing concerns about peak-out. The question remains whether they can continue to earn at this pace. If the growth of HBM slows down, sales could also decline.

The price or quantity might drop a bit, right? Reports like this are starting to come out, or rather, there was one minority opinion. During the recent earnings announcement for Hynix, many analysts wrote reports, and most of them said it was good. However, one person mentioned that it seems to be peaking. It was really good from the end of last year to the first half of this year, so there are indeed some controversies. It's not great; it has only improved slightly. But the thing is, the semiconductor industry is a cyclical one, and we can't ignore that. Last year, when Tesla was doing so well and its stock price reached $400, there were no analysts saying that Tesla was bad. But now, it seems to be different. They are holding or advising to wait, and I think the fundamentals are very cheap.

Since we're talking about AI, companies like NVIDIA have led the U.S. stock market this year. However, for this to be supported by actual performance, the big tech companies that purchase NVIDIA chips, which include HBM made by Hynix, need to turn their AI programs into revenue. These companies must generate profits from these AI systems for NVIDIA's performance to be sustainable. In other words, global consumers need to continue spending money on AI. For instance, I use AI for YouTube and Netflix, but I am not currently paying for AI services. Therefore, this aspect needs to be proven for the trend to continue. What are your thoughts on this?

Regarding this, isn't it true that big tech companies will eventually make us use their products? Of course, that day will come. The question is when it will come and with what intensity. The truth is, we don't use MS Word or Excel because we want to; we use them because we have no choice. Right now, Microsoft is integrating something called Copilot. At some point, we might be using it for free, but then Microsoft will say, Now you have to pay, and we will pay to use it. It's similar to how we used to share a Netflix account among four people for a low price, but now we have to pay for our own subscriptions. Such concerns are definitely valid. Last week, Google announced its earnings, and Alphabet reported good results, but there were criticisms that emerged from that.

You pointed out the same issue, and yes, it's great that your performance is good. However, aren't you overlooking the fact that you're spending a lot of money on AI? This criticism arose, and even though Alphabet's performance was good, it plummeted. There are indeed some issues, but when we look at the growth process of companies like Google and Apple, we see that they create monopolies. We can't avoid using them. Kakao is the same; they set everything up and then start displaying ads. We can't ignore it, and we can't stop using KakaoTalk. Because of this, the likelihood of creating a monopoly is high, which means it doesn't necessarily lead to profitability. I think it might be more beneficial for investment to consider who will monopolize this market rather than just focusing on profitability. Understood. Today...

Our stock market has dropped significantly, so it might be too much to say that it was just a fluctuation. Let's ask about the outlook for the future. What should we pay attention to? If you could give us one keyword. 

I believe there are several factors at play. The psychological state is very poor because stock prices have risen significantly over a long period. There is a strong desire to sell in this market, which has increased volatility. As AlphaGo will discuss later, there is also geopolitical instability, which can be a short-term risk factor. I think geopolitical factors are quite significant. We experienced this in April when the volatility index, VIX, rose to 18 due to the issues between Iran and Israel, causing the market to fluctuate quite a bit at that time.

I believe that various factors are currently at play. The VIX index has now surpassed 20, exceeding this year's peak. Looking at the situation back then, it was during the weekend when fighting broke out in Israel, which created uncertainty in the market. As a result, foreign investors may have sold more futures. Given that anything could happen over the weekend, Iran cannot afford to remain passive. If they launch drones or missiles during that time, the impact could be significant. Therefore, it seems that foreign investors have engaged in futures selling today as a precaution. However, if we consider that the risks are not likely to persist in the long term, we could see futures inflow again if the market stabilizes next week or the week after. As I mentioned earlier, if the employment indicators come out too poorly...

The economy is in a recession, and investors believe that the impact of a downturn on the stock market is greater than the decline in employment indicators. Therefore, we need to pay attention to tonight's employment report and next week's CPI. It is essential to verify these factors one by one and invest slowly. Rather than hastily buying the dip, it is necessary to confirm the situation before making purchases. Until a month or two ago, global investors were solely focused on when employment would stabilize. Thank you, Park Jae-young from Hanwha Investment & Securities, for joining us today. Thank you. Park Geun-young, Lee Sun-young, and Yeom Seung-hwan, the investment masters, encourage you to develop healthy investment habits through careful analysis. Check out the 3% membership on the 3% app.

[긴급진단] 속수무책 코스피 ‘패닉’ 2700선 붕괴…피의 금요일 왜? f. 한국투자증권 목동PB센터 박제영 차장

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