감귤류 위기: 감소, 도전 과제, 그리고 해결책

플로리다의 오렌지 생산량은 감귤류 녹화, 기상이변, 높은 생산 비용, 노동력 문제 등으로 인해 급감했습니다.

### 미국 감귤류의 쇠퇴: 도전 과제와 잠재적 해결책
* 🍊 플로리다의 오렌지 생산량은 **2005년 이후 90%나 급감**했으며, 오렌지 주스 가격은 **사상 최고치**를 기록했습니다.
* 💸 감귤 재배자들은 **높은 생산 비용과 인건비 등 경제적 압박**과 **감귤녹화병의 파괴적인 영향**에 직면해 있습니다.
* 🌎 전 세계 감귤류 산업도 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 브라질에서는 **감귤녹화병 감염이 크게 증가**하고 **수확에 영향을 미치는 기상이변**이 발생하고 있습니다.
* 🌱 감귤류 녹색화에 대처하기 위한 연구 개발 노력이 계속되고 있으며, 플로리다에서는 **인바이오의 Trecise와 같은 새로운 치료제**가 긴급 승인을 받았습니다.
* 👩 농부들은 **농작물 덮개를 사용하거나 포식성 말벌을 풀어 총채벌레를 방제**하는 등 대체 솔루션을 모색하고 있습니다.
* 🔄 공급 제약이 계속될 것으로 예상됨에 따라 일부 제조업체는 **주스 블렌드에 대체 과일**을 사용하는 것을 고려하고 있습니다.
* 📉 미국 감귤 생산량은 **2001년 이후 60% 가까이 감소**했으며, 플로리다의 점유율은 **79%에서 36%로 감소**했습니다.
* 🏆 전문가들은 감귤류 녹화에 대한 치료법을 찾으면 **플로리다 생산자에게 큰 도움이 되고 손실을 완충하는 데 도움이 될 수 있다**고 생각합니다.

Orange production in the United States has plummeted, especially in Florida, where orange harvests have dropped 90% between 2005 and 2023. At the same time, orange juice prices are reaching record highs. Orange juice prices this week hitting all-time highs, up 56% just this year with little relief in sight, and prices might go higher. Growers continue to have reduced yields, and the price of orange juice escalates. It's twice this year than it was last year, and it's just going to keep going up. Between citrus greening disease, severe weather, and economic pressures, citrus growers are losing millions of dollars every year. Say the number one challenge is then the inflationary pressures. The protocols in place cost the growers a significant amount to make sure that we keep the disease at bay. Citrus production in the United States pretty dire situation right now. And when you have a lack of supply that's unable to meet demand, prices for consumers shoot up.

Why is your orange juice so expensive? Because we are running out with our number one quality
fruit. Can U.S. citrus bounce back after decades of disease
and destruction? And will years of research and development save
Florida's oranges? Citrus fruits like oranges, grapefruits, and tangerines
are big business in Florida. In 2021, Florida's citrus industry generated nearly $7
billion in total market value and supported over 32,000 jobs. Florida used to produce over 70% of the nation's
oranges consistently. Now fewer oranges are being planted in Florida. In 1998, there were over 658,000 orange acres in
Florida. Since then, orange acreage has shrunk by more than
50%. There were just over 303,000 acres of oranges in 2023. High farm operating costs are part of the problem. Production costs are extremely high. We have the highest production expenses in the US ag
economy on record.

Orange farmers face increased costs due to a disease
called citrus greening. In the past decade and a half, it's been a battle against
citrus greening, a disease which robs trees of nutrition. The margins have gotten tighter. Your production has declined, while your production
costs on these greening-impacted trees is probably triple. And so the growers have really been hanging on
by a thread. So there's a lot of money at risk that the growers are
taking, hoping five, six, seven years in advance before a consumer ever picks up that piece of
food at the grocery store. It's not just replanting like corn and soybeans each
year when you lose a crop; these are orchards. If you lose an orchard, it's going to be years until
farmers start producing again and have revenue. Plus, labor is expensive. There's not a lot of mechanization as there is with
corn, soybeans, wheat, and other row crops.

So you need a lot more labor to pick and process, and grow those crops. And currently, we don't have a lot of U.S. workers willing to work on a lot of those farms. So we rely on programs like the H-2a program. Wage rate is set under that. And it's sort of a minimum wage that farmers are required to pay their farm workers from other countries under the program. And right now, that wage rate in Florida is $14.77, which is far above the minimum wage in Florida and far above the minimum wage in Mexico, Brazil. So it's become very expensive for farmers to acquire labor and maintain labor. They also have to provide free housing, which is in addition to that, $14.77. Farmers strapped for cash may opt to sell land, especially as the state sees a major influx of new residents. You also have population issues. Urban sprawl. Florida's become a very popular state for people to move into.

A lot of farmers are trying to make the decision: do I
tough this out another year and potentially face destruction, or do I sell my land? In 2002, Florida produced 79% of total US citrus. By
2022, production fell to 36%, making California the top
citrus-producing state. California is the number one citrus-producing state in
the country, and it's directly related to the decline in production coming from Florida. Florida went down to under 16 million boxes last year,
so over 90% drop, pretty detrimental. The biggest decline is directly related to the lack of
production from citrus greening. And so that's the number one reason why California has
overtaken Florida in 2023. California was responsible for 79% of total U.S. citrus. Florida's citrus accounted for 17%, while
Texas and Arizona combined produced the remaining 4%. However, overall, U.S. citrus production has dropped by nearly 60% since
2001.

Citrus greening, which is essentially destroying the
citrus crops around the globe, is absolutely impactful to the ability for that
part of the industry to produce and to produce economically. For example, the world's largest orange juice producer
and exporter, Brazil, has an increase of citrus greening infections. An estimated 38% of Brazil's citrus trees
were infected in 2023. That's up from an estimated 24% in 2022, making
it the biggest percentage jump since 2008. Citrus greening isn't the only challenge farmers are
facing. In addition to disease, extreme weather makes citrus
production difficult and more likely that orange juice prices will remain elevated in the short term. Heat waves, droughts, and floods have led experts to
forecast Brazil's worst harvest in 36 years. And those weather conditions, especially this year,
have cut supply, pushing up prices for consumers. It's not going to recede for at least the next year
until we have a new crop.

The fruit on the ground is a total loss. Florida saw its worst citrus harvest since the 1930s. During the 2022-2023 growing season, a late-season freeze and Hurricane Ian destroyed between $416 million and $675 million of citrus crop and perennial infrastructure. However, extreme weather risks have been eclipsed by the impact of citrus greening in Florida. And is the freeze that you just had? Is that the biggest problem? No. The biggest issue is citrus greening. And when a tree is hit with that disease, it drops its fruit early upwards of 40%. That is a complete loss. We've been dealing with the disease for about 15 years. Citrus greening is considered to be one of the most serious plant diseases in the world, for which there is no cure. The disease was first detected in Florida in 2005. It was thought to be brought in by insects that were brought in through the Port of Miami.

They carry this disease that comes through the sap of
the tree. So when citrus greening starts to enter the grove, it reduces the productivity of those trees, and ultimately forcing them into death, and then therefore removal from the grove. The USDA estimates that since citrus greening
came into Florida, the entire market has lost above 75% of their production, so it is devastating disease. The disease has since spread to California, but its
impact differs from Florida's experience. Farmers in Florida told us that the situation and what we could do to avoid it happening in California, and the number one thing is to control the psyllid. If you can control the psyllid, the disease will be contained. The disease doesn't spread on its own. It can't move from tree to tree without a psyllid carrying it from tree to tree. In California, immediately developed a program to control silk. The disease has only been discovered on residential citrus trees and has not hit commercial groves.

So we'd make sure that before we move citrus, that we control the psyllid. It doesn't feed on the fruit; it feeds on the stems and the leaves. And so the harvesting protocols, so that you don't have stems and leaves with transportation. So there's tarping that goes over the truck. And so that program is in place today well over ten years. The problems plaguing global citrus production are not easily remedied as global warming makes extreme weather more common. Increased storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts may cut into citrus harvest expectations. Thankfully, there are risk management options for farmers to use to help hedge against any of these weather-related risks. Just general crop losses, pests. A lot of that comes through the crop insurance program, which is a public-private partnership where the risk management agency out of USDA has offerings of lots of different crop insurance policies that farmers can buy for their operation.

Citrus has geographic limitations, so production cannot
easily shift to another, potentially less risky region. For example, California's climate
doesn't have the rainfall required for growing oranges needed for juicing. The climate in Florida is perfect for growing juice,
and the climate here in California is perfect for growing fresh. Meanwhile, millions of dollars have been spent on
research and development to stop citrus greening. Right now, today, there's a number of chemical
pesticides that are applied to try and control citrus greening and help grove owners to increase their
production and their yields. But unfortunately, those chemical applications aren't
really solving the problem. What we're doing at Invaio is looking for ways in
which we can reduce the application of chemical pesticides. Invaio is an agricultural sciences company that
developed a treatment called Trecise. In August 2023, Trecise received emergency approval by
the Florida Department of Agriculture and Community

Services. We've developed a very unique precision delivery
technology called Precise that we're able to insert into the tree and deliver a very
reduced amount of an antimicrobial directly into the tree, so the
active ingredient only goes out into the vascular system within the tree, as opposed
to being applied outside of the tree, where there would be the potential for exposure to workers. One key research area has been fruit breeding to create
new citrus varieties that are resistant to greening. To the extent that we can find a solution that will fit
long term. It's in citrus breeding, and it's easier said than
done. We're breeding for consumer tastes as well, so just
because a tree might be resistant, it may not have the same traits that the consumer demands. Ahead of any new citrus varieties, researchers have worked on combating the insects
themselves by using crop covers, developing antimicrobial sprays, and even releasing wasps to prey
on the psyllids.

There have been some positive signs in the research
world. Nothing definitive yet, but we're hoping that
something breaks through soon. And if really, if we find a cure for citrus greening,
that's going to help Florida producers quite a bit and might be able to buffer some losses. Further, lack of supply has led some manufacturers and
blenders to consider using alternative fruits for juice. It could be a way to keep prices affordable. For example, tangerines could be used in orange juice
blends, and tangerines have become a more popular choice among consumers. Tangerines, clementines have become extremely popular. Back in 2000, they made up about 20% of the citrus
market purchased by consumers. Now they're up over 40%. Experts believe supply constraints will continue to
drive up orange juice prices for some time, especially as US citrus production levels are too low to sustain
domestic demand. So we went from being a net exporter to now we're a net
importer.

And that's pretty sad. Just all those compounding
issues of lack of labor, high production expenses, citrus greening disease, your smaller farms a little
bit more difficult to buy. A lot of new pesticide options that might have just come on the market. You got the pressures from population and weather. How can we help incentivize farmers not to sell off
until we get innovations that help protect them against drought, precipitation, pests? It's really hard for farmers to make that decision to
grow another year in the orange market.

How Orange Juice Became More Expensive Than Ever

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2005년 이후 플로리다의 오렌지 생산량이 90%나 급감하면서 오렌지 주스 가격이 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다.

감귤 재배자들은 감귤녹화병, 혹독한 날씨, 높은 생산 비용 등의 문제에 직면하여 업계에 심각한 상황을 초래하고 있습니다.

오렌지 생산량 감소는 오렌지 재배 면적이 크게 감소하고 플로리다의 감귤류 산업이 지원하는 일자리가 감소하는 등 경제에도 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

노동력 부족과 감귤류 재배가 미국 감귤류 생산에 미치는 영향

노동력 부족, 높은 H-2A 프로그램 임금률, 무료 주택 제공의 필요성 등으로 인해 플로리다 농부들은 노동력을 유지하는 데 많은 비용이 들었고, 이로 인해 많은 사람들이 토지 판매를 고려하게 되었습니다.

플로리다의 감귤류 생산량 감소는 주로 감귤류 녹화 사업으로 인해 캘리포니아가 미국 최고의 감귤류 생산 주를 추월할 수 있게 되었습니다.

감귤 녹화는 기상이변으로 인한 문제와 함께 2001년 이후 미국 감귤 생산량이 60% 가까이 감소하여 전 세계 감귤 생산량에 영향을 미치고 소비자들에게 오렌지 주스 가격 상승의 원인이 되었습니다.

감귤 녹화가 플로리다 감귤 수확에 미치는 파괴적인 영향

플로리다의 감귤류 수확은 늦은 계절의 한파와 허리케인 이안으로 인해 수억 달러의 손실을 입었지만 가장 큰 문제는 감귤류 녹색병의 파괴적인 영향으로 주 생산량의 75% 이상이 손실되었다는 점입니다.

치료법이 없는 이 질병은 나무의 생산성을 떨어뜨리고 결국에는 고사로 이어집니다.

이 질병을 옮기는 곤충인 프실리드를 방제하는 것이 확산을 막는 데 매우 중요하며, 캘리포니아는 프실리드를 방제하고 상업용 숲에 대한 질병의 영향을 피하기 위한 프로그램을 개발했습니다.

농부들이 날씨 관련 위험과 농작물 손실에 대비할 수 있도록 위험 관리 옵션과 농작물 보험을 이용할 수 있습니다.

캘리포니아는 플로리다와 달리 오렌지 재배에 필요한 강우량이 부족하여 감귤류 생산이 지리적으로 제한되어 있습니다.

농업 과학 회사인 인바이오는 화학 농약 사용을 줄이기 위해 정밀 전달 기술을 적용한 감귤류 녹화 처리제인 Trecise를 개발했습니다.

또한 녹색화에 강한 새로운 감귤류 품종을 육종하고 소비자의 요구를 충족시키기 위한 연구에도 집중하고 있습니다.

새로운 품종 외에도 감귤류의 녹색화를 막기 위한 노력에는 작물 덮개, 항균 스프레이, 곤충을 겨냥한 포식성 말벌의 사용이 포함됩니다.

감귤 녹화에 대한 치료법을 찾기 위한 노력이 계속되고 있어 플로리다 생산자들에게 희망이 되고 있습니다.

공급 부족으로 인해 주스용 대체 과일을 고려하게 되었고, 감귤이 더욱 인기를 얻고 있습니다.

감귤류 시장은 공급 제약에 직면하여 가격이 상승하고 있으며, 노동력 부족, 높은 생산 비용, 감귤녹화병이 소규모 농장에 미치는 영향과 같은 복합적인 문제도 해결해야 합니다.