Orange production in the United States has plummeted, especially in Florida, where orange harvests have dropped 90% between 2005 and 2023. At the same time, orange juice prices are reaching record highs. Orange juice prices this week hitting all-time highs, up 56% just this year with little relief in sight, and prices might go higher. Growers continue to have reduced yields, and the price of orange juice escalates. It's twice this year than it was last year, and it's just going to keep going up. Between citrus greening disease, severe weather, and economic pressures, citrus growers are losing millions of dollars every year. Say the number one challenge is then the inflationary pressures. The protocols in place cost the growers a significant amount to make sure that we keep the disease at bay. Citrus production in the United States pretty dire situation right now. And when you have a lack of supply that's unable to meet demand, prices for consumers shoot up.

Why is your orange juice so expensive? Because we are running out with our number one quality
fruit. Can U.S. citrus bounce back after decades of disease
and destruction? And will years of research and development save
Florida's oranges? Citrus fruits like oranges, grapefruits, and tangerines
are big business in Florida. In 2021, Florida's citrus industry generated nearly $7
billion in total market value and supported over 32,000 jobs. Florida used to produce over 70% of the nation's
oranges consistently. Now fewer oranges are being planted in Florida. In 1998, there were over 658,000 orange acres in
Florida. Since then, orange acreage has shrunk by more than
50%. There were just over 303,000 acres of oranges in 2023. High farm operating costs are part of the problem. Production costs are extremely high. We have the highest production expenses in the US ag
economy on record.

Orange farmers face increased costs due to a disease
called citrus greening. In the past decade and a half, it's been a battle against
citrus greening, a disease which robs trees of nutrition. The margins have gotten tighter. Your production has declined, while your production
costs on these greening-impacted trees is probably triple. And so the growers have really been hanging on
by a thread. So there's a lot of money at risk that the growers are
taking, hoping five, six, seven years in advance before a consumer ever picks up that piece of
food at the grocery store. It's not just replanting like corn and soybeans each
year when you lose a crop; these are orchards. If you lose an orchard, it's going to be years until
farmers start producing again and have revenue. Plus, labor is expensive. There's not a lot of mechanization as there is with
corn, soybeans, wheat, and other row crops.

So you need a lot more labor to pick and process, and grow those crops. And currently, we don't have a lot of U.S. workers willing to work on a lot of those farms. So we rely on programs like the H-2a program. Wage rate is set under that. And it's sort of a minimum wage that farmers are required to pay their farm workers from other countries under the program. And right now, that wage rate in Florida is $14.77, which is far above the minimum wage in Florida and far above the minimum wage in Mexico, Brazil. So it's become very expensive for farmers to acquire labor and maintain labor. They also have to provide free housing, which is in addition to that, $14.77. Farmers strapped for cash may opt to sell land, especially as the state sees a major influx of new residents. You also have population issues. Urban sprawl. Florida's become a very popular state for people to move into.

A lot of farmers are trying to make the decision: do I
tough this out another year and potentially face destruction, or do I sell my land? In 2002, Florida produced 79% of total US citrus. By
2022, production fell to 36%, making California the top
citrus-producing state. California is the number one citrus-producing state in
the country, and it's directly related to the decline in production coming from Florida. Florida went down to under 16 million boxes last year,
so over 90% drop, pretty detrimental. The biggest decline is directly related to the lack of
production from citrus greening. And so that's the number one reason why California has
overtaken Florida in 2023. California was responsible for 79% of total U.S. citrus. Florida's citrus accounted for 17%, while
Texas and Arizona combined produced the remaining 4%. However, overall, U.S. citrus production has dropped by nearly 60% since
2001.

Citrus greening, which is essentially destroying the
citrus crops around the globe, is absolutely impactful to the ability for that
part of the industry to produce and to produce economically. For example, the world's largest orange juice producer
and exporter, Brazil, has an increase of citrus greening infections. An estimated 38% of Brazil's citrus trees
were infected in 2023. That's up from an estimated 24% in 2022, making
it the biggest percentage jump since 2008. Citrus greening isn't the only challenge farmers are
facing. In addition to disease, extreme weather makes citrus
production difficult and more likely that orange juice prices will remain elevated in the short term. Heat waves, droughts, and floods have led experts to
forecast Brazil's worst harvest in 36 years. And those weather conditions, especially this year,
have cut supply, pushing up prices for consumers. It's not going to recede for at least the next year
until we have a new crop.

The fruit on the ground is a total loss. Florida saw its worst citrus harvest since the 1930s. During the 2022-2023 growing season, a late-season freeze and Hurricane Ian destroyed between $416 million and $675 million of citrus crop and perennial infrastructure. However, extreme weather risks have been eclipsed by the impact of citrus greening in Florida. And is the freeze that you just had? Is that the biggest problem? No. The biggest issue is citrus greening. And when a tree is hit with that disease, it drops its fruit early upwards of 40%. That is a complete loss. We've been dealing with the disease for about 15 years. Citrus greening is considered to be one of the most serious plant diseases in the world, for which there is no cure. The disease was first detected in Florida in 2005. It was thought to be brought in by insects that were brought in through the Port of Miami.

They carry this disease that comes through the sap of
the tree. So when citrus greening starts to enter the grove, it reduces the productivity of those trees, and ultimately forcing them into death, and then therefore removal from the grove. The USDA estimates that since citrus greening
came into Florida, the entire market has lost above 75% of their production, so it is devastating disease. The disease has since spread to California, but its
impact differs from Florida's experience. Farmers in Florida told us that the situation and what we could do to avoid it happening in California, and the number one thing is to control the psyllid. If you can control the psyllid, the disease will be contained. The disease doesn't spread on its own. It can't move from tree to tree without a psyllid carrying it from tree to tree. In California, immediately developed a program to control silk. The disease has only been discovered on residential citrus trees and has not hit commercial groves.

So we'd make sure that before we move citrus, that we control the psyllid. It doesn't feed on the fruit; it feeds on the stems and the leaves. And so the harvesting protocols, so that you don't have stems and leaves with transportation. So there's tarping that goes over the truck. And so that program is in place today well over ten years. The problems plaguing global citrus production are not easily remedied as global warming makes extreme weather more common. Increased storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts may cut into citrus harvest expectations. Thankfully, there are risk management options for farmers to use to help hedge against any of these weather-related risks. Just general crop losses, pests. A lot of that comes through the crop insurance program, which is a public-private partnership where the risk management agency out of USDA has offerings of lots of different crop insurance policies that farmers can buy for their operation.

Citrus has geographic limitations, so production cannot
easily shift to another, potentially less risky region. For example, California's climate
doesn't have the rainfall required for growing oranges needed for juicing. The climate in Florida is perfect for growing juice,
and the climate here in California is perfect for growing fresh. Meanwhile, millions of dollars have been spent on
research and development to stop citrus greening. Right now, today, there's a number of chemical
pesticides that are applied to try and control citrus greening and help grove owners to increase their
production and their yields. But unfortunately, those chemical applications aren't
really solving the problem. What we're doing at Invaio is looking for ways in
which we can reduce the application of chemical pesticides. Invaio is an agricultural sciences company that
developed a treatment called Trecise. In August 2023, Trecise received emergency approval by
the Florida Department of Agriculture and Community

Services. We've developed a very unique precision delivery
technology called Precise that we're able to insert into the tree and deliver a very
reduced amount of an antimicrobial directly into the tree, so the
active ingredient only goes out into the vascular system within the tree, as opposed
to being applied outside of the tree, where there would be the potential for exposure to workers. One key research area has been fruit breeding to create
new citrus varieties that are resistant to greening. To the extent that we can find a solution that will fit
long term. It's in citrus breeding, and it's easier said than
done. We're breeding for consumer tastes as well, so just
because a tree might be resistant, it may not have the same traits that the consumer demands. Ahead of any new citrus varieties, researchers have worked on combating the insects
themselves by using crop covers, developing antimicrobial sprays, and even releasing wasps to prey
on the psyllids.

There have been some positive signs in the research
world. Nothing definitive yet, but we're hoping that
something breaks through soon. And if really, if we find a cure for citrus greening,
that's going to help Florida producers quite a bit and might be able to buffer some losses. Further, lack of supply has led some manufacturers and
blenders to consider using alternative fruits for juice. It could be a way to keep prices affordable. For example, tangerines could be used in orange juice
blends, and tangerines have become a more popular choice among consumers. Tangerines, clementines have become extremely popular. Back in 2000, they made up about 20% of the citrus
market purchased by consumers. Now they're up over 40%. Experts believe supply constraints will continue to
drive up orange juice prices for some time, especially as US citrus production levels are too low to sustain
domestic demand. So we went from being a net exporter to now we're a net
importer.

And that's pretty sad. Just all those compounding
issues of lack of labor, high production expenses, citrus greening disease, your smaller farms a little
bit more difficult to buy. A lot of new pesticide options that might have just come on the market. You got the pressures from population and weather. How can we help incentivize farmers not to sell off
until we get innovations that help protect them against drought, precipitation, pests? It's really hard for farmers to make that decision to
grow another year in the orange market.

How Orange Juice Became More Expensive Than Ever

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