주택 투자 선택: 서울 대 부산의 딜레마

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### 주택 선택 탐색하기: 미래 투자를 위한 서울 대 부산
* 🏠 한국의 지속적인 인구 감소와 양극화로 인해 **서울과 부산의 주거 기회 격차가 확대**되면서 저를 포함한 많은 사람들이 투자 옵션을 고려하고 있습니다.
* 💔 30대 중반의 신혼부부인 저는 처음에는 **부산에서 내 집 마련**을 목표로 했지만, **취업난과 서울 집값 상승**에 점점 더 마음이 흔들리고 있습니다.
* 💰 소득의 약 80%에 달하는 저축률로 약 **3억 6천만 원의 자산**을 보유하고 있어 두 도시에서 주택을 구할 수 있는 여유가 있습니다.
* 🤔 아내와 저는 수도권의 미래 성장 가능성을 고려해 **서울의 오래된 아파트에 투자**할지, 아니면 **부산의 부동산을 살지 고민**하고 있습니다.
* 📈 서울의 매력에도 불구하고 **올림픽 타운과 같은 부산의 특정 부동산은 상당한 상승세**를 보이고 있어 모든 지방 부동산이 저평가된 것은 아니라는 것을 알 수 있습니다.
* 🔍 부산의 일부 지역은 **서울의 특정 지역보다 더 나은 투자 기회**를 제공할 수 있으므로 일반화하기보다는 개별 부동산을 평가하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🤝 궁극적으로는 **장기적인 목표와 부산의 안정성**을 우선시할지, **서울의 잠재적 자산 성장**을 우선시할지에 따라 결정이 달라지기 때문에 신중하게 논의하고 선택지를 검토하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 💬 가족의 재정적 안정에 초점을 맞춘 이 여정이 우리 삶의 중요한 순간으로 이어져 **미래의 집에 대해 현명한 선택**을 할 수 있기를 바랍니다.

Today, I'm here to talk about my thoughts on housing choices in Seoul and Busan. With the ongoing population decline and polarization, the gap is expected to widen in the future. I've lived in the provinces my whole life, but now it seems that opportunities are concentrated in Seoul. Should I start investing? I'll share everything about the differences in the housing market between Seoul and Busan.

Hello, I'm a newlywed in my mid-30s who wants to lead a happy life with my family. Until recently, I was determined to buy a house in Busan since I live here. However, I'm feeling a bit confused these days. Seoul is ahead in terms of population and job demand, and I know many people believe that housing prices will rise even more in the next 10 or 20 years. Where should I buy a house, in Seoul or Busan? I'm managing to save about 80% of my income each month, so thankfully, I have some options.

Both of us don’t have any free time. We are well-matched enough to take a trip to Seoul to celebrate our first wedding anniversary. Whenever I want to buy something, I add it to my shopping cart and think about it for a few days before making a purchase. When we were newlyweds, we brought the furniture we used while living alone, so it didn’t cost us much to set up our home. I’m happy to have met a wife who fits me so well. However, there is one thing we disagree on. With each lease renewal, the stress of moving arises. Since this isn’t our own home, we can’t freely use it. During the COVID period, seeing housing prices rise made me realize how important owning a home is. So, I wanted to have my own place, even if it meant taking out a loan for a newly built property in a good location. However, my wife has a different perspective. These days, we hear a lot about regional decline and polarization. She believes that opportunities will continue to come in Seoul. Even if it’s an older apartment in Seoul, she thinks we should invest and live in a rental in Busan while saving money.

I want to say that I have been thinking about this, but looking at the amount of investment and the differential amount you mentioned during the last meeting, I think the timing in Busan is just right for purchasing a home. However, regardless of my investment in purchasing a home, there is only one thing that is important to me: I hope my people do not suffer because of money. I would rather be the one who struggles. I want my parents, wife, and child to be able to do everything they want without worrying about money. I hope that the moment I gathered the courage to write this will become a turning point in my life in ten years. With a sincere heart, I send this story. First of all, my assets, including real estate, stocks, and personal pensions, total about 265 million won, and I have 100 million won in cash. So, it seems that I have around 360 million won in available assets. My income is 8.8 million won, which is a lot for two people, but we don't even spend 3 million won. We save 6.1 million won. Wow, this is just the best.

I think I can buy the best thing in Busan. No joke, my first question is: I have 300 million won as seed money. Should I invest in Seoul and live in a rental in Busan, or should I buy a house in a good location in Busan? Regardless, the gap between the cities will widen, so what choice should I make to achieve good results? The second question is about Busan being called the capital of my province. Even so, how different are Seoul and Busan? I'm curious about the risks of buying older buildings in the provinces compared to Seoul. 

Hello. Yes, hello. I'm still undecided about whether to buy a home in Busan or to maintain a rental while preparing to buy in the Seoul metropolitan area. What is making you think that way? Considering the asset value in the Seoul metropolitan area, I believe it will be better in the long run than in Busan. On the other hand, I was thinking about whether to settle in Busan.

When I looked at the statistics, everything seems to be in the worst state right now, so I'm thinking this might be a good time to invest. Yes, that's right. Where is your workplace? My wife is in the western part of Busan, and I sometimes use the Donghae Line or occasionally drive. Ulsan is almost attached to Busan. Oh, so it’s not that far away. Yes, that's right. How long have you been involved in real estate? I think it's been about two years. With a capital of 300 million won, I'm considering investing in an apartment in Seoul. What do you think is the difference between apartments in Seoul and those in Busan? I believe the land value is definitely different. There are many workplaces, and I think there are people who have to live there. In comparison, I think Busan is somewhat lacking. You might think that, but let me show you an apartment in Busan. People really like Haeundae in Busan, right?

Do you know the apartment complex called Olympic Town? Yes, I know it. The East Olympic Town was valued at about 300 million won ten years ago, but in 2021, it surpassed 1 billion won. This is a property built in 1999, and its value has tripled. I wanted to point out that in good areas of Busan, even older buildings can rise to this level, with some reaching up to 1 billion won. 

When approaching real estate, you shouldn't generalize. Not everything in Seoul is good, and not everything in the provinces is bad. In fact, some areas in Seoul can be less valuable than certain areas in the provinces, and some neighborhoods in Busan may be more valuable than those in Seoul. It’s important to practice assessing value based on individual complexes. Therefore, I think it would be good to have a well-informed perspective. Ultimately, this is the situation: if we consider Seoul as a dragon, then Busan is like a snake. So, will you choose to buy the tail of a dragon or a snake?

You are choosing whether to buy a house. Yes, an area where you can invest about 300 million won is likely to be a region with lower preference in Seoul. However, if you are planning to buy a home in Busan with 300 million won plus a loan, you can purchase the best property in Busan. Based on the level of loans we are considering, I thought there might be a slight shortage of funds. How much loan were you thinking of? Considering factors like your job and income, I concluded that around 400 million won would be reasonable. If you take a leave of absence, will you still receive a salary for a year? Yes, that's correct. Then let's conservatively assume that your spouse's income decreases from 3 million won to 1 million won. Since you are currently saving 6 million won, even if we assume you can save about 4 million won, I believe you can comfortably take out a loan exceeding 400 million won.

I think it's possible to save over a million won. The reason I mention this is that the current market is much easier in the provinces, while it's somewhat more difficult in the metropolitan area. This is because there are regions that are more favorable and others that are less so, making it a bit challenging to judge. However, the twist is that finding livable complexes in the provinces can be a bit harder compared to the metropolitan area, as you really need to choose wisely. Yes, that's right. Additionally, there are areas in the provinces where demand has decreased. In contrast, even if you choose the worst complexes in the metropolitan area, they will all appreciate over ten years. So, what I would like to advise the person inquiring is to clearly distinguish between what they need to endure and what they will gain. If you secure a home in the provinces, stability is guaranteed in that regard.

However, when looking at it in the long term, there may be some regret in terms of asset value compared to the metropolitan area. If you invest in the metropolitan area, you can own real estate that has significant value as an asset in the long term, but there is the aspect of having to move every two years. We can't really determine that for you. So, I think it would be good for you to discuss this with your wife and make a decision. By the way, how did you study real estate? I attended monthly lectures and read the book Retire from Your Job. Oh, that's not the book; it's You and I. Which lectures did you attend among the monthly lectures? I attended the beginner course for home ownership and the advanced course. I see, that makes sense. I thought your perspective was a bit different, and now I understand why. So, what specifically did you learn in the beginner course for home ownership?

Have you learned how to sing? Why don't you try to gather some ideas about what kind of complexes I can work on in Busan? After that, it would be good to think about which complexes people like the most. I believe that Busan is very affordable right now. I think I can work on the best complexes in Busan, except for places like LCT. The best condition is when the prices are lower than the existing prices, but I'm worried because of the current situation. From the perspective of someone like you, who has worked hard to save up more than 300 million won in your mid-thirties, it's only natural to want to use that money wisely, right? So, I'm wondering if the prices of apartments here will all drop. Let's think about the worrying situation: the population is decreasing, and many of my friends are moving away.

My friend who teaches me is also from Busan. Yes, that friend doesn't have any friends in Busan either. The only time I go to Busan is when I visit my parents. There are not many job opportunities in Busan, and that's a concern. I've heard discussions about this, and I know that people in the provinces have this fear. But it's interesting—are people really going to completely disappear from Busan? Another thing is that Busan is a bit different; there are a lot of tourists there. It's quite fascinating because we often talk about Japan, right? Yes, in Japan, the real estate prices in areas with many tourist attractions have either decreased very little or have hardly dropped at all, even after the bubble. And have you heard of Yangyang? It's been quite chaotic there in recent years. Given that many people are flocking there, what do you think has happened to the rental prices or monthly rents?

I think the rent and monthly fees have also gone up. If the rent increases, how do sales prices change? They tend to rise as well, right? So, we need to be able to understand these trends. For those living in Busan, it’s decreasing, isn’t it? Yes, that’s right. It’s a bit frightening. But is the permanent population decreasing there? During the summer, when you go to Haeundae, how many people are there? That’s right. So, what I’m saying is, when those people come, what does it have to do with real estate? 

Look, there are many wealthy people in Busan, right? Yes, there are quite a few. Where do you think they make their money? I don’t know. Right? Those people are all business owners. They are self-employed individuals running shops in Haeundae and such. So, are they going to leave Busan? No, they won’t. Then, where will they live? Will they live in old apartments? They would want to live in good, new buildings.

It seems like you might be considering living in places like Haeundae or Centum City. I want to mention that you need to be mindful of your metacognition. If you have about 350 million won as your seed money, investing in the metropolitan area and renting in the provinces isn't a bad idea. However, if you look at the details, you'll find that with 300 million won, the options for living in Seoul are somewhat disappointing. It's hard to find good places. You probably realize this from your own studies, but you know you missed an opportunity, right? At the end of last year, the beginning of this year, or at the end of the year before last, you could have purchased something in Songpa with 300 million won. That's not possible anymore, right? So, what can I actually buy with 300 million won now?

You must have studied, so you know a few things, right? Then, when comparing it to those, you need to quickly find the kids from Busan who can make a judgment about what would be better. But you can actually buy some top-tier apartments in Busan. There are apartments in Busan that are highly regarded, and when you say, I live here, people will react positively because they know those places. People from Busan are very interested in apartments, to be honest. Right? When you hear the names of certain apartments, you know them all, right? Yes, yes. You can actually buy such apartments now. But how old are you? I'm 36 years old. At 36, do you think people in Seoul can buy apartments that are well-known when they say where they live? No, right? Yes, that's what I'm saying. What I'm trying to say is that Busan has a lot of wealthy people, due to its characteristics as a tourist city.

Because there are no jobs, people in your workforce are struggling. There are no workplaces like in Seoul, yet there are many rich people. Strangely, the apartments where those people live are either older buildings or new large complexes. There are opportunities in those newly built large complexes. This is something that people who have never invested would never know. People tend to think simply: rural areas are not good, Seoul is good, and they don’t have the energy to think beyond that since they are busy with their daily lives. However, people like me have put my money and my neck on the line. I dig deeper and deeper into this. Therefore, my conclusion is that major apartments in regional cities offer really good opportunities. This is evident in the fact that a diligent 36-year-old young man is contemplating whether to purchase an 84m² apartment in Busan, one of the top five.

This is the evidence, and I want to talk about this. You have 350 million won, right? Let's say you take out a loan of exactly 400 million won because you don’t want to overextend yourself. Then, you can buy a 75 million won apartment that is 84 square meters. There are plenty of options available. And you learned how to determine what is better among those options in the basic course, right? You can just do it that way. Choose one and buy it. 

Now, what situation does that put you in? First, you own a home. Second, you have to pay off the loan. Let’s consider the loan as something you need to pay off directly. You are currently saving 600,000 won a month, which amounts to 7.2 million won in a year. How many years will it take to pay off 400 million won? It would take about six years if you manage it well. Now, you’re 36 years old, so let’s assume you pay it off in six years. After having a child and taking maternity leave, it would be eight years later.

Let's say you invest when you're 44 years old. After that, what comes next? It's just savings. Ah, so you shouldn't buy a house in Seoul at that time; instead, buy a house in Busan. During such a good period, pay off your debt diligently, and by the time you reach your early to mid-40s, after studying investment seriously, you can consider additional investments in real estate or stocks. It's okay to invest then. There is no eternal downtrend. When others say they can't succeed, that's when it becomes an opportunity. Have you ever thought about this? No, I haven't. Right? But to reach a point where you can understand this discussion, you need to attend lectures and visit places to gather information. That's how this back-and-forth conversation works. While listening to this, many people might be thinking, What is this person talking about? So, I believe this is how it should be done. And lastly, I...

I really want to talk about this, not just to you, Step by Step, but also to the viewers. Many people are currently quite oblivious to this. However, it’s something you must know: the basic framework is that prices are rising in Seoul while they are falling in the provinces. Yes, I always emphasize that the market is not that simple or predictable. What would you do if prices fell in Seoul and rose in the provinces? Have you thought about that? It seems like you haven’t thought about it much. It’s hard to imagine, right? But it could happen; no one can be sure. So, rather than making predictions about the future, it’s better to focus on what I can do right now. That’s what I want to say. You can find a good apartment, right? I taught you all that in my lecture. The best option among what I can buy is not just something I like, but something that others like as well—my own home.

I hope you do well. Given my situation, I never thought it would be possible to this extent. Oh, I see. I feel like I've learned something new. Did you see that? Just looking at the credit loan, I want to talk to you as your younger sibling. Please don't be too afraid of loans. Don't underestimate them either. I understand, but if you view them too fearfully or excessively, it's like saying that a ladder I could easily climb is too scary for me. I've never climbed that ladder because I'm afraid, so I just brought a tiny ladder that doesn't match my size and struggled to climb it. You can think of it as the older siblings sharing their experiences with you. There's no need to be scared. If you earn money and save wisely, you can control it as much as you want. Got it? Do you understand? Lastly, is there anything else you'd like to say? I've watched many of your lectures and videos. Oh, I...

I see that you might be feeling sensitive. Since this is a broadcast, I refer to you as you, but usually, I would just call you brother. Is it okay if I continue with that? I can sometimes see that you might be struggling, and I hope you understand that there are people who are also feeling this way. There are times when I seem to be having a hard time, and I feel that occasionally. It seems like I might cry here; thank you, thank you very much. 

You never know, I might go on a trip somewhere, and there are definitely subscribers or people who recognize me. I usually go to Busan about once a year. If we happen to meet on the street in Busan, please be sure to say hello. At that time, I will definitely call you brother. Thank you very much. By the way, do you not have much inner sensitivity? Compared to me, you should have a comparison of about four years. I hope you are living happily. You have waited a long time for this. Thank you.

아네, 선을 네. 너 은근 뒤끝 있다. 너 왜 이렇게 뒤이 있어? 그 안 돼고 합니다. 아니, 유디 님이 되게 좋은 사람이거든요. 진짜 진짜 좋은 사람이에요. 좋은 사람인데, 여러분들, 좀 유디 님 응원 좀 해주세요. 그리고 제가 라이브에서는 이렇게 떠들지, 제가 영상 올라간 거 보니까 제가 얘기한 거 많이 잘라냈다고 유디 님이 되게 많이 알려 드리니까, 유디 님도 많이 좋아해 주셨으면 좋겠습니다. 

Yes, you tend to hold grudges a bit. Why are you like this? That's not good. No, Yudi is a really good person. Truly, a really good person. He’s a good person, so everyone, please support Yudi. Also, I tend to talk like this during live sessions, but after watching the uploaded video, I noticed that a lot of what I said was cut out. Yudi has shared a lot of information, so I hope everyone will also appreciate Yudi a lot.

기회 잡고 싶은 사람들만 보세요. 지금 여기는 다시 오기 힘들정도로 기회입니다. (구해줘월부 부동산상담)

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대출과 생활에 대한 형제 자매의 조언

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현명한 수입과 저축의 중요성을 강조하면서 개인적인 경험과 지원을 제공합니다.

발표자는 청취자에게 감사와 소통하고 싶은 마음을 표현하며 서로를 지지하고 감사할 수 있도록 격려합니다.