투자 펀드: 2024년의 변화와 기대

### 터키 투자 펀드 세금 변경 및 2024년 경제 전망
* 📊 터키 투자 펀드에 대한 현행 **7.5%의 면세 혜택이 종료**되어 8월 1일부터 **10%의 원천징수세로 전환**될 예정입니다.
* 🏦 세브뎃 아크사이 중앙은행 부총재는 **조기 금리 인하는 의제에 포함되지 않았다고 밝히며 안정적인 정책**을 예고했습니다.
* 🇺🇸 다가오는 미국 대선의 결과, 특히 **'트럼프 2.0'의 가능성**은 글로벌 시장의 핵심 요인으로 여겨지고 있습니다.
* 🏛 금리에 대한 연방준비제도의 접근 방식, 특히 **데이터 기반 전략**을 면밀히 모니터링할 것입니다.
* 📉 이스탄불 증권거래소(BIST)는 **향후 5개월 동안 어려움**을 겪을 것으로 예상되며, 이에 대한 주의가 필요합니다.
* 💰 2024년 남은 기간 동안 추천하는 펀드 그룹에는 **머니마켓 펀드, 채권 펀드, 해외 주식 펀드**가 포함됩니다.
* 📈 최근 조정에도 불구하고 **2024년 국내 주식형 펀드는 양호한 성과**를 보였지만 향후 투자에 주의가 필요합니다.
* 🌍 이 발표자는 포트폴리오 결정에 있어 **개별 위험 프로필의 중요성**을 강조하며, 만능 접근법은 존재하지 않는다고 말합니다.

투자 전문가는 8월 1일 이후 펀드에 원천징수세 10%가 부과될 것으로 예상하며, 저위험 자산에 집중할 것을 조언합니다.

Good evening dear friends, Yücel Ferek here. Welcome to my channel, we are together in a new live broadcast with a new video today. I wanted to chat with you a bit, actually, to see the situation in investment funds. You know there was a tax exemption in an investment fund until July 31st, with a 7.5% withholding tax. Most likely, this exemption that started at the end of 2020 will come to an end, so we will face a period where there will be a 10% withholding tax in investment funds. After a long period, about 4 years, we will be together again. The arrival of this change was already expected. I assume that it was implemented as a transitional period from April 30th. At least, that's how I interpret it. An extension was made until July 31st, another exemption was granted. If this exemption is not extended, it means that we will return to a 10% tax rate after August 1st in investments.

Now, after making this determination in the funds, it is also beneficial to make an observation like this. We can see that the government's work, especially in terms of taxation, continues intensively. In order to ensure tax justice, there are many roads to be taken, many steps to be taken, but we see that actions are being taken faster regarding the taxes that need to be analyzed at their source and go into the state's treasury, as you have also seen. Therefore, I expect the withholding tax rate to be 10% after August 1st. I hope I am wrong, I hope there will be something that proves me wrong. However, I predict that there will be a consistency here, and we are actually expecting an alignment to be made in the withholding tax rate in deposits just like in investment funds. We will see on August 1st, we will follow the official gazette. However, how are we looking at the economy for the rest of the year, what kind of economic environment are we going to face, what opportunities are there, what threats are there, as I said, I wanted to have a little chat with you about this. In this regard, we are also preparing a presentation.

I have prepared. As usual, it will be a presentation where we will have a little mutual conversation and I will share my views with you. Now, we are looking at 2024 here. Friends, tomorrow we are finishing the 7th month of the year, July 31st. And at the end of these 7 months, actually, we saw an investment fund universe that provided returns in line with the conjuncture we foresaw at the beginning of the year. What did we say at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024? That is, we will experience a period where TL assets will be prominent, money market funds will be prominent, and risk-free returns will be prominent. I am in the group of investors who have the courage to move towards risky assets in TL-denominated assets. We also mentioned that there is potential in stocks, and you can include them in your portfolio as a position, but it is necessary not to let caution go and to diversify portfolios. When we look at the performance of the first 7 months, despite the correction movement in the last month, the best-performing fund group is still around 11,000.

We are talking about an index below 10,600. We are talking about an index that potentially has the downside of going below 10,000, so there our index stands out. More precisely, emphasizing domestic equity funds. In the background of thought, there was something like this: Friends, there were actually a lot of carrots that needed to be bought, and some of them happened, such as credit rating upgrades by rating agencies. Besides that, we also saw a radical change in reserves shifting to the positive side. In addition, we saw that the Central Bank will signal a stable policy in terms of interest rates both domestically and internationally, to both the domestic and foreign press, and to stakeholders, completely. However, what is also important is that the corporate discourse here needs to show a continuous stability, a continuous consistency. We have seen that this is important. Now, looking ahead to the remaining year, in the last 5 months, it seems like we will look at a slightly different conjuncture. We will look into the details of that. Now, together, how is the conjuncture leading us to 2024?

Let's see, when I was determining the beginning of this year in terms of making a comment about this year, I used an expression, saying 2024 is an election year. We did have an election in 2024, it was a local election, though, but in terms of its effects, it actually brought about a significant change. Currently, the weight of the ruling party that has been governing the country for a long time and the weight of the opposition are quite close in terms of voting potential. Towards the end of 2023 and in the first 3 months of 2024, we really foresaw the election. Actually, this led us to experience a process related to a radical change. Besides that, you know, one of the most important elections is the European Parliament elections, and especially in the elections in the Eurozone, we witnessed the rise of the radical right-wing and the quick reaction of what is actually referred to as the Democratic Left in Europe. We became a little worried there, right-wing parties are rising, racism is rising, nationalist trends are on the rise. Were nationalist movements rising due to the immigration crisis there?

Regarding this issue, we had some concerns about the safety of our citizens living there. We had political, social, and sociological concerns about whether we would experience problems. Honestly, at the moment, this situation seems a bit more subdued, a bit more calm. In the Eurozone, the main focus we have is still the high inflation and how inflation will be reduced after the moves of the ECB. The path seems to be a bit clearer now. However, we cannot say the same for America, my friends. For America, in the November American elections, they say Trump 2.0. I constantly read and hear this in the press. Actually, there has been a change. In the Democratic Party, there was no potential for Biden to win the election due to his age and health. A step was taken, albeit late. A strong figure from the Democratic Party like Kamala Harris emerged as a female candidate against Trump. Now, the American elections, especially, will create the beginning of a result that is directly influential on the money supply in the world.

That's why it is necessary to follow the American elections and it is necessary to closely monitor if there will be a conjuncture change there because we know from the numbers that the American society is inclined towards Capital Markets, especially in terms of deposits, or rather savings. We know that the Capital Markets are very developed there, or rather the measure of development related to the capital markets is referred to as the touchpoint in the American geography. And it is said that in the American society, if the returns in the capital markets are good, it creates a happiness effect, as behavioral finance experts say. Trump is a man who uses this very well, especially if Trump 2-0 happens, there may be an upward movement in the conjuncture, especially in the American markets, regarding developing countries and their return potentials, in terms of their return potentials on risky assets. The market is not predicting this right now, but we must definitely follow the American elections, it is a geography that we must follow.

Even if it is very far away, an important agenda item that we need to follow, friends. So, what the FED is doing during this process, and what importance it holds, friends. Well, if you have been following my videos on its fight against inflation, you already know that it is managing it with stability and has been continuing for a long time, following a data-driven management. Friends, Powell is managing this data-driven investment with such a strong discourse that, I mean, American inflation has reached around 9.5% at the moment, approaching the threes level. It even touched the threes level. In fact, the ideal for American inflation is to reach the twos. So, this was largely achieved through verbal communication by the FED and Powell, conducted with very accurate communication. This was done without shaking the markets. Now, what the FED needs to announce in the coming days, the meetings it will hold today and tomorrow, and the comments that will reflect on the market will be very important. In addition, there are the Jackson Hole meetings in August, on the 16th and 17th of July, regarding the period of FED interest rate hikes in September.

Already, the interest rate cut in pricing at a rate of 10000%. However, what will be the frequency of this? In other words, will it be a 0.75% interest rate cut, or will it evolve in a different direction according to the election results? Frankly, it is not widely known, but the sensitivity of the Fed to interest rates, the sensitivity of interest rates to monetary policy, and its reflection on our daily lives will be one of the important points that will mark the last 5 months of the year, my friends. So, leaving aside the Fed, apart from that, there is the central bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. What will be the stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey? Now, the table you see on the screen, friends, shows Turkey's inflation figures. So, the latest inflation rate here came in June at 71.6%, and currently, our policy rate is %. Friends, our policy rate is still being pursued with a positive and consistent discourse, and portfolios continue to be strongly positioned thanks to this, money market funds continue to bring returns, debt securities funds continue to bring returns, and on the risky asset side, domestic

Stocks have made their mark in terms of returns in the first 7 months. So, are our questions the same for the rest of the year? Has it changed compared to the beginning of the year, or has it differentiated? In my opinion, there is not much difference, but there is a risk of developments that can change the conjuncture at the base. In the last 5 months, we see that central banks are still continuing their influential role. Whether it's the ECB, the Bank of England, or the Federal Reserve, they are continuing to play their roles strongly and sending very serious messages to both their internal dynamics, local markets, and global markets. Now, it will be crucial for us to follow whether the emphasis on high inflation by the FED in July 3031 will come out of the FED minutes. Because so far, the FED has been emphasizing high inflation in the texts without fail, underlining it, and supporting it with their statements. However, the recent data will be important to follow, especially after the FED meetings in July 3031.

Then, the issue of whether he emphasizes high inflation in the text he will present will lead to our investigation. If this emphasis on high inflation is removed from the text, it would likely mean that a rate cut in September is already priced in at a rate of 10000. If this emphasis is removed from the texts, so what is the situation in Turkey, friends, how has the situation changed in our own internal dynamics? Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Cevdet Akçay, stated to Reuters in an announcement that an early rate cut is not on the agenda, he said to the markets on July 26, and this interview actually hit the market like a bomb. Now, the most important issue that Cevdet hocanın underlined here and especially underlined in the meetings he attended is the sensitivity to whether the improvement in the monthly course of inflation will continue. Cevdet Hoca, who also emphasized a similar point in the interview given to Reuters, continues to give a clear message here. In fact, we can say the interest rate cut cycle is not being considered at the moment. Now, especially in September, in September specifically, what will come is coming.

A statement had come from the top level of the government regarding the possibility of a cycle of interest rate cuts with inflation figures and domestic inflation figures, but Cevdet Hoca expresses that this statement is actually off the agenda. As a central banker, he announces this to the global world through Reuters. Now, the second important message he gives here is that when the cuts begin, market players have started updating their views to not expect an interest rate cut from the Central Bank in 2024, which was already hinted at after the interview Cevdet Hoca gave. The clue here was that Cevdet Hoca clearly stated that a firm stance will be maintained when the cuts begin, leaving no doubt, and he actually crowned this concern by stating that an early interest rate cut could create a resurgence in inflation risk. This is because the Central Bank's fight against inflation started after the change in the economic management following the May 2023 elections, as you know.

However, in this long-term period, inflation showed a downward trend in approximately 14 months, the first month being June 2020 with 24.71. This is expected to continue in July as well, and the main factor behind this is actually the base effect. This is because very high monthly inflation rates were recorded in June 2023 and July 2024. Now, one of the points emphasized by Cevdet Hoca, especially in the monthly course of inflation decrease, is the desire for this monthly inflation trend to be at a one-point increase level from the upward trend. I personally think that if the economic management breaks this belief that has already emerged in the market with the risk of an early interest rate cut, it could actually trigger inflation upwards. This situation actually gives us a clearer clue about where we can preserve our assets for the rest of the year. What is this clue? As seen in the table on the Borsa Istanbul screen, as also seen from the graph.

For the last month, roughly the last 3.5 to 4 weeks, we have been in a downward trend and within a correction movement, and we see that the market closed at the level of 10.69. So, we see that it closed the day at 10,000, a psychological limit, my friends. Actually, going below 10,000 can accelerate sales here. However, the basis of our previous videos was the discussion of when the Central Bank, especially relying on the downward movement of inflation domestically, would gain the courage to start interest rate cuts. And after it started interest rate cuts, the assumption was that a strong upward movement would begin in the Istanbul Stock Exchange from the point where the interest rate cut movement was announced. However, with his statements, Cevdet Hoca has now eliminated this possibility. Now, the question is whether the Istanbul Stock Exchange is currently taking a break or will continue its downward movement strongly. If we look at it technically, we will see it in a short time, within a week. But the important point here, my friends, is the story of the year.

Then, in the remaining part, we are talking about a 5-month period. During this 5-month period, the Central Bank took steps to prevent the decrease in deposit interest rates, especially due to the abundance of TL liquidity in the market, in other words, used some tools to attract excess TL liquidity. After the interest rates settled above % of deposit interest rates, I honestly think that the past period of the year is a time when we need to take a closer look at risk-free assets, money market funds, and debt securities funds. That's why I wanted to have this conversation with you. Has it changed to 2024? Yes, in my opinion, from August to December 2024, the last 5-month period will be a bit different compared to the first 7 months of the year because the catalyst was what? The strength of our TL assets and the downward movement of inflation, especially in TL-denominated assets, is expected to significantly push our stock market, Borsa Istanbul, upwards. Therefore, it is necessary to make an observation within this observation. In fact, the biggest incentive is the ratings of rating agencies.

there are increments and in the upcoming period due to the foreign inflow supported by these increments in the past period, the main view is that there will be an upward movement in the Istanbul stock exchange. However, be careful, during this process, there was a foreign inflow to the Istanbul stock exchange, but this inflow mostly went into bonds, my friends. There was an outflow from stocks and an inflow into bonds. So, what is the reason for this? The reason for this, my friends, is the improvement in Turkish Lira bond yields caused by the policy interest rate raised to 50 by the Central Bank. As a result of the regular and stable course of economic policy, the expectation of a downward trend in interest rates led foreigners to take positions. Because, considering the bond structure, if you think in terms of value with interest rates, bonds are an asset class inversely correlated with interest rates. We will talk about this shortly. So, which fund groups do we need to pay more attention to in 2024? Let's move on to that now. In 2024, I am highlighting money market funds. Why am I highlighting them? Because

In the money market funds, perhaps on Monday, perhaps on Thursday, August 1st, we will see the withholding tax of these funds being increased. But with deposits, in my opinion, a uniform practice will be implemented by the management. Well, I think the economic management will do so. However, money market funds have a very strong advantage within themselves. Firstly, they have maturity flexibility. In money market funds, you can have a return that is close to inflation, or at least has the potential to exceed inflation without being dependent on maturity. Also, you can have a chance to protect yourself to some extent from market fluctuations and risks. Now, imagine you have 20,000 TL in your pocket and you went to a bank branch to get a deposit rate. The policy rate is currently at 5%, so the pricing you will get for that deposit may be around 3.9 or 4.0. Because bargaining power means this, my friends. If you have a large balance, if you have a large deposit, you may have a better interest rate. However, if you have a money market fund, portfolio management companies are already handling this operational burden for you.

Management companies are also in serious competition with each other in this respect, and since money market funds are non-interest-bearing funds, you have an advantage in terms of comparing the performances of portfolio management companies and transferring your portfolio to a portfolio management company that performs better through tefas. Now, one of the most important features of the compound interest money market fund, which provides a return of around %, is that if you stay constantly in the money market fund that provides a return of around %, actually, the return you will have after 30 days, 45 days will be higher than the return you would get from a classic time deposit interest because your money is gaining value every day, and by growing your savings with a compound interest logic based on the amount that gains value, in this sense, money market funds are one of the prominent investment instruments we see on this screen. Therefore, maneuverability is one of them, in my opinion, because the last 5 months of the year are a risky period, friends, a period where we cannot see our future very clearly.

This risky situation can also offer opportunities for us. If we have invested in a liquid asset, we can take advantage of these opportunities. In this sense, it is also beneficial to consider money market funds. Now, in terms of bond funds, it is constantly emphasized. If you notice, our large portfolio companies are adopting an attitude that highlights bond funds. This is because the returns here are around 4.5% to 5% monthly. It is similar to a state, an institution, a financial institution, or a bank issuing bonds to raise funds from the market for financing purposes. For example, the Treasury of the Republic of Turkey issues a bond promising to provide a higher interest rate on the money in your pocket than a deposit, enabling you to make an investment. In fact, you are lending that money to the government, and at the end of the term, the government is obliged to pay you back. You receive that money. Now, when we talk about bond funds, especially targeting interest returns.

Because they have assets, private sector bonds are one step ahead in treasury bonds or treasury bills because when you need to choose to lend, you have to decide whether you want to lend to a government, a company, or a bank. Therefore, since the government's bargaining power and trust factor are stronger here, private sector bonds generally have a premium over treasury bonds. In other words, they promise a higher interest return. Therefore, it may be beneficial to look at funds that include private sector bonds because they are relatively low risk. Because currently the monetary policy is being carried out reasonably and logically, a fight against inflation is anticipated, and there is a very clear statement from the Central Bank that if the fight against inflation is successful, interest rates will be reduced. Now, as I mentioned a little while ago, the nature of bonds and bills is like this, friends. When interest rates rise, that is, when the interest on a bond you have purchased increases, your bond loses value. When interest rates fall, your bond...

Foreign investors prefer to invest in bonds and bills in Turkish markets rather than stocks because they assume that the fight against inflation will be successful by the end of the year or in the upcoming period, leading to an expectation of a decrease in interest rates. This expectation is what drives them to believe that bonds and bills will gain value in their portfolios. Therefore, they have mostly invested in bonds and bills instead of stocks. Just like I mentioned a bit earlier, there should be an appeal here in the market. When there is a 50% interest rate in the market for private sector bonds, you may choose a private sector bond that also offers a 50% interest rate. However, if that bond offers a 56% interest rate and you trust the private sector player there, you may prefer it. It will suffice to think in this simple logic. Now, when it comes to foreign equity funds, by saying that the tone of the Fed is important, what I actually mean is this: In the American market, especially, the Fed has two main tasks, one is inflation and the other is employment, just like our Central Bank.

On our bank's official website, the main mission is mentioned as price stability. The Federal Reserve (FED) has two main tasks in this regard: inflation and employment. Currently, the market is pricing in a FED interest rate cut in September. However, regarding this interest rate cut, one could also make the following comment: if the interest rate cut is due to the success of the data-driven policy pursued by the FED in its fight against inflation, then it is a positive thing. However, if this interest rate cut had to be made because it slightly disrupted the improvement in the employment markets, which is one of the FED's two main tasks, then it could be a negative thing. Therefore, I believe it is important to be a bit cautious, a bit controlled, and a bit liquid in order to better understand what lies behind the FED's data-driven approach and to eliminate this uncertainty. We are going through a period where it is important to be cautious, controlled, and liquid. I personally think that understanding what is happening in the background of the FED's data-driven approach is crucial. When I refer to U.S.-based indices, I mean an index that does not exhibit thematic features, such as the Dow Jones or the NZD, but as you know, it could be related to an interest rate cut.

A very sensitive index. Technology is a very sensitive sector. As I mentioned here, it might be more correct to take a position by looking at why the Fed will lower interest rates. It may be logical to look at ETFs because costs are lower there. Friends, index-based, not US-based, ETFs without a specific theme can be included in our stock portfolio depending on our risk perception. The percentage there depends entirely on your risk perception, friends. I always say that. Now, in terms of foreign ETFs, when we compare foreign stock exchange-traded funds or rather fund baskets, I mentioned a fund basket fund that invests in American Treasury bonds. Now, the motivation there, the investor motivation there, is based on the same mathematics behind why foreign investors take positions in bonds rather than stocks in Turkey. It depends on the operation of bonds and bills, friends. Now, in the case of the Fed cutting interest rates, America has 7-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 2-year bonds.

Investment options can become viable depending on the expectation of these gaining value. However, these are risky assets. Like I said, in the next month, maybe in the next 1 or 5 months, we need to be very cautious. This could be a period where we need to be extremely cautious because the risks we take now could have long-term consequences if we make a wrong decision for the rest of the year. That's why I honestly think being cautious is very important right now. The American elections are, of course, very important. It might be much more logical to see which direction the American economic policy will evolve after determining who the president is after the American elections. Therefore, balanced portfolios without keeping the risk too high can be our savior in the last 5 months of the year. Friends, lastly, I also want to mention foreign asset-focused variable funds here, and I'm talking about these variable funds that are managed by trying to create a balance by carrying both stocks and bonds, so it would be beneficial for you to take a look at them. In other words, foreign asset-focused variable funds in the portfolios of our asset management companies.

Variable funds can be examined as options that try to balance the portfolio by simultaneously holding foreign stocks and bonds. A more detailed analysis can be conducted there. Now, the Eurozone side can also be seen as a financial asset selection that needs to slowly enter portfolios. However, as I mentioned, it seems necessary to see this current conjuncture a bit clearer in a one to one and a half month period because, frankly, I think we are going through a period where risks are high. Currently, in terms of return performance in the first 7 months of the year, domestic stocks that have marked the year in terms of return performance have a rocky road. With his statement on July 26th, Cevdet Hoca, also known as Dr. Cevdet Akçay, ensured a consensus and opinion on the fact that there will be no rate cuts until 2024, and actually displayed a stance of closing the door to interest rate cuts for market players. So far, almost all stories that triggered the Istanbul Stock Exchange upwards have been bought by friends, and almost all expectations of Fitch's and Moody's credit rating upgrades have been priced in.

They have increased, and these improvements, which were all priced in advance, may be a period confirmed by market players as we enter a stable period of improvement. Therefore, I think the next few months will be a bit rough, dusty, and rocky for domestic equity-heavy funds. I believe the road ahead will have some thorns on the roses because the entire story for the upward expectations in Borsa Istanbul has already been bought in advance. It seems like there is not a very serious story ahead for Borsa Istanbul, so caution is needed. Turkish Lira assets in the portfolio, according to our risk structure and risk perception, we should shape our portfolio by staying away from TL risky assets and turning to low-risk variable funds such as money market funds and bond funds, that is, to create a portfolio with low risk. If we have the potential to take some medium risk, it is necessary to talk about holding assets such as precious metals, gold, silver, in low proportions. So, it is necessary to have these in portfolios, friends.

If you have a high-risk investor profile, one of the investors currently investing in Borsa Istanbul is Eniz. For example, if you have been losing a significant amount of money for the last 3 weeks, but if you have a high-risk investor profile, you may consider this as an opportunity. You may even want to increase your weight in these funds. As I said, all the steps you will take during this process are directly related to which risk group you belong to, in which risk group you belong to, there is no one-size-fits-all economic structure, no right recipe for financial asset selection for everyone, my friends. Because we are all different from each other, you know, I always repeat this in my statements, I know sometimes you get bored, but unfortunately, this is the case. Because every investor is unique, every investor is different from each other, every investment, every investor looks to the future with different concerns, different hopes at a different point in their life cycle. Therefore, there is no single right portfolio for everyone, my friends. Never forget this. And as a final note here, my friends, it has been 40 minutes again.

I have talked about money market debt securities funds, variable funds, foreign equity funds, precious metals, and especially the Fed's attitude towards interest rates, and it is important to understand clearly why this interest rate cut is happening because gold is related to this. The main theme, in my opinion, is to increase the risk-free return a bit as a weight in our portfolios in the remaining part of the year. I actually think that caution should not be abandoned in the last 5 months of the year. Yes, after this 40-minute presentation, I would like to quickly look at your questions right after the chat. I believe that I am not very much into behaviors like profit realization, personally. I look at which percentage my portfolio is weighted with a fund supported by the current conjuncture and whether that percentage weight harbors opportunities to maximize my return in the upcoming period. So, stock investment is a bit different in that sense from investment funds, in terms of profit realization.

There is something, uh, a value date, you know, in funds, in equity funds it's T+2, in foreign funds it's 3 or 4 depending on the time you are trading. So, I believe that it is more important to determine the correct portfolio allocation that will maximize the return. I am actually on the side of thinking that it is more important than profit realization. I generally don't have a stance like profit realization. Of course, this is my personal opinion, I continue. Nuran Hanım has a comment here. Uh, withholding tax. She said, For me, withholding tax doesn't bother me at all. Now, friends, where I agree with Nuran Hanım is that this is an exception. This withholding tax exception has been in place since the end of 2020. Previously, there was always a 10% withholding tax on investment funds, and that was a step taken specifically to support investment funds in the capital market. It was a constantly repeating exception, so I need to focus on that area a lot. If the investment fund we invest in offers a return above inflation and is well-managed, uh, our portfolio management company, on a monthly or annual basis.

If inflation is successful in providing a solution on a periodic basis, I don't think we should dwell too much on the taxes we pay from the income we earn because we cannot enjoy the financial success we achieve for a long time. Sometimes we need to look at things a bit more simply. After all, there is income earned, and the government collects its tax on that. Let's continue now. Zül Hanım, I have heard these nicknames, and I quite like them. Trump 2.0, I don't know. Hopefully not, let's see. Let's continue. Here we have a question. Ercan's question: How does the exchange rate affect foreign funds? Now, when calculating the price of foreign assets in the funds, the Central Bank's exchange rate for buying foreign currency is calculated. Think of it this way: when the value of assets in the funds is calculated daily, foreign assets also need to be calculated based on an exchange rate. In this exchange rate, the Central Bank's Dollar buying rate is crucial. If this Dollar buying rate is moving upwards, the fund appreciates; if it moves downwards, the fund's value decreases. So, in this way,

It has an effect. Therefore, the upward movement in the exchange rate supports funds with foreign assets, pushing them upward, the opposite pushes them downward. I will continue. Deniz made a very nice comment. Oh, no, thank you. I hope it is helpful, Deniz. About the Qubic Cup Qubic Portfolio Fund, I will make a more detailed examination, or rather, an analysis there. In the part of the analysis that I plan to make, I will put the GPG fund on the other side. It will be a fund managed by Eral. It will be nice to compare the two because both invest in foreign assets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign debt instruments, seeking a balance, and funds that have been in the capital market for a long time. I am actually thinking of comparing the two. I will answer your question in that regard. Yes, it has been a 46-minute long time, a long time. As I said, thank you very much for your participation and support. Like the broadcast.

Don't forget to share with your loved ones and subscribe to my channel, it's free. In this sense, by sharing my videos, you support me in reaching valuable people like you. Take very good care of yourselves. Dear friends, I say goodbye to meet you in a new video or a live broadcast. Hoping the remaining 5 months until 2024 will be good for all of us. Good evening.

2024'ün Geri Kalanında Fırsatlar & Tehditler #fon #yatırımfonu #livestream

Yücel Ferek 

투자 펀드 원천 징수세 예상 변경 사항

5% 원천징수세 면제가 7월 31일에 종료되어 10% 세율로 환원될 예정입니다.

조세 정의를 위한 정부의 강도 높은 과세 조치로 인해 8월 1일 이후에는 10%의 원천징수 세율이 적용될 가능성이 높습니다.

투자 펀드 유니버스는 지난달 조정 움직임에도 불구하고 국내 주식형 펀드의 성과가 두드러짐 등 예상에 부합하는 수익률을 기록했습니다.

2024년 선거가 글로벌 정치와 시장에 미치는 영향

2024년 지방선거는 여당과 야당 간의 박빙의 승부가 예상되는 등 큰 변화를 가져왔습니다.

유럽의회 선거에서 급진 우파가 부상하면서 민족주의 운동과 이민에 대한 우려가 커졌습니다.

0'의 잠재적 영향은 글로벌 통화 공급과 자본 시장에 대한 행복 효과에 매우 중요하며, 미연준의 데이터 기반 인플레이션 관리에 중점을 두고 있습니다.

터키의 금리 인하와 인플레이션을 둘러싼 불확실성

터키 중앙은행은 이전의 추측과 정부 발표와는 달리 현재 금리 인하를 고려하고 있지 않습니다.

부총재 세브뎃 아크사이 박사는 인플레이션 추세를 지속적으로 모니터링하는 것이 중요하다고 강조하며 금리 인하 가능성에 대해 확고한 입장을 밝혔습니다.

2023년 5월 선거 이후 경제 관리 체제가 바뀐 이후에도 터키 중앙은행의 최우선 과제는 여전히 인플레이션과의 싸움입니다.

2024년 이스탄불 증권 거래소 및 인플레이션 예측

인플레이션은 과거 고금리로 인한 기저효과로 인해 약 14개월 동안 하락 추세를 보였습니다.

월별 인플레이션 추세가 약간 상승할 수 있다는 의견이 있지만 조기 금리 인하가 이를 반전시킬 수 있습니다.

다가오는 2024년 8월부터 12월까지는 터키 리라화 강세와 인플레이션 하락으로 외국인 채권 유입에 힘입어 이스탄불 증시가 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다.

머니마켓 펀드와 채권 펀드의 장점

머니마켓 펀드는 원천징수 세금이 증가할 수 있지만 만기 유연성, 시장 변동으로부터의 보호 등의 장점이 있습니다.

또한 머니마켓 펀드는 기존 예금에 비해 높은 수익률을 기대할 수 있습니다.

채권 펀드, 특히 민간 부문 채권에 투자하는 펀드는 상대적으로 낮은 위험과 높은 이자 수익을 제공합니다.

현재 통화 정책의 인플레이션 억제 노력은 금리 인하로 이어질 것으로 예상되므로 채권 펀드를 고려하기에 좋은 시기입니다.

터키 시장의 외국인 투자 선호도

외국인 투자자들은 성공적인 인플레이션 싸움과 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 기대감으로 터키 시장에서 주식보다 채권과 지폐를 선호하고 있습니다.

인플레이션과 고용에 대한 연방준비제도의 기조와 데이터 중심의 접근 방식은 투자 결정을 내리는 데 매우 중요하므로 주의와 유동성이 필요합니다.

다가오는 미국 대선과 경제 정책의 불확실성으로 인해 올해 남은 몇 달 동안은 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오가 현명한 선택이 될 것입니다.

금융 자산 선택 및 포트폴리오 관리 조언

변액 펀드는 해외 주식 및 채권으로 포트폴리오 균형을 맞출 수 있고, 유로존은 점차 금융자산으로 편입되는 추세입니다.

2024년까지 금리 인하가 예상되지 않는 현재의 고위험 시기는 국내 주식형 펀드에 힘든 시기를 예고하고 있습니다.

이러한 불안정한 시기에는 터키 리라화 위험 자산을 피하고 저위험 변액 펀드와 채권 펀드, 중간 정도의 위험을 감수할 수 있는 귀금속에 집중하는 것이 좋습니다.

투자 펀드에서 포트폴리오 배분과 원천 징수 세금의 중요성

포트폴리오 배분은 투자 수익을 극대화하는 데 매우 중요하며, 때로는 수익 실현보다 더 중요할 때도 있습니다.

2020년 말부터 시행된 원천징수세 특례는 자본 시장의 투자 자금에 중요한 의미를 갖습니다.

환율은 해외 펀드의 가치에 영향을 미치는 데 중요한 역할을 하며, 중앙은행의 달러 매입률은 펀드 가치 상승 또는 하락의 주요 요인입니다.