경제적 유사점: 2007년 및 2024년 연방준비제도 조치

### 경제적 유사점: 2024년 10월 대 2007년 10월
* 📉 2024년 10월과 2007년 10월 사이에 눈에 띄는 유사점이 있어 경제가 호조를 보이고 있다는 주장에도 불구하고 **새로운 글로벌 금융 위기 가능성에 대한 의문**이 제기되고 있습니다.
* 🏦 2024년 9월 18일, 연방준비제도이사회는 금리를 **4.75%로 50bp 인하**했는데, 이는 2007년과 비슷한 예상치 못한 조치로 경제 성장과 인플레이션이 가속화될 것이라는 예측을 불러일으켰습니다.
* 📊 과거 분석에 따르면 **2007년 금리 인하 이후 월가는 다우존스 산업평균지수가 335포인트 상승**하는 등 긍정적인 반응을 보였지만 곧 인플레이션에 대한 우려가 제기되면서 연준의 조치에 대한 비판이 이어졌습니다.
* 📈 2008년 연준은 공격적인 금리 인하에도 불구하고 **소비자물가지수가 3.5%에서 5.6%로 상승**하는 등 인플레이션 상승에 직면했고, 이는 연준의 접근 방식이 잘못되었을 가능성이 있다는 점을 부각시켰습니다.
* 🔍 현재 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 최근 금리 인하 이후 상승했는데, 이는 **연준의 조치가 너무 공격적**이라고 여겨졌던 2008년과 유사한 인플레이션에 대한 시장의 우려를 반영한 것입니다.
* 🏗 2007년과 달리 현재 신용 스프레드는 낮고 건설 일자리는 크게 감소하지 않았으며, 이는 **GDP의 6%에 달하는 재정 적자 지출**이 지속되고 있음에도 불구하고 오늘날의 경제 환경이 달라졌음을 시사합니다.
* 📅 비농업 고용과 GDP 전망도 2007년에 비해 노동 시장이 강세를 보이고 있지만, 경제 데이터의 과거 수정을 보면 **겉모습이 속일 수 있음을 알 수 있습니다.**
* ⚠ 궁극적으로 우리가 또 다른 글로벌 금융위기로 향하고 있지는 않지만, **낙관론이 경기 침체에 선행**하는 경우가 많기 때문에 잠재적 위험에 대한 경계를 늦추지 않는 것이 중요합니다.

역사는 경제 강국이라는 주장에도 불구하고 잠재적인 위기가 다가올 수 있음을 경고합니다.

There are some shocking similarities between October 2024 and October 2007. Does this mean we're headed for the next GFC, or are the people in the mainstream media and these experts correct? The economy is strong and resilient. This is a very strong economy by all measures, and it doesn't happen by accident. I'm going to answer these questions for you in three simple fast steps. Step number one, let's go over what just happened with these Fed rate cuts and compare it to history. Most of you know that on September 18th, the Fed cut rates all the way down to 4.75%. The range with the bottom of the range 4.75%. That was a 50 basis point cut, and for a lot of the market, this caught them off guard. This was very unexpected, and now what we're hearing as far as the narrative with these experts and the mainstream media is that this may spur or accelerate economic growth, and it could take us right back to inflation. This is probably why you're

seeing interest rates go up since the FED dropped by that 50 basis points. But before we move any further, I actually want to point out that this wasn't 2024; this was actually 2007. That's right, September 18th, 2007. The FED cut by 50 basis points, the exact same thing they did September 18th, 2024. And just like 2007, in 2024, they took interest rates down to 4.75. And just like 2007, for a lot of the market, it was completely unexpected. And now everyone is predicting that economic growth is going to accelerate to the point where we might even have Consumer Price inflation accelerate into the future. So this 50 basis point cut might have been a mistake. So what we have to do is we have to go back to 2007, which is what I did right here, and in 2008, and see exactly what happened, but not just with interest rates, with narrative editor. Go ahead and throw up this quote from the Wall Street Journal going back to September.

19th, 2007. The day after the FED cut by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term interest rates by half a percentage point to 4.75% to combat the effects of a weaker housing market and tighter credit in the broader economy. The steep reductions in the FED funds rate surprised many on Wall Street, who expected a more modest rate cut, in other words, 25 basis points. Stocks rose sharply after the fed's announcement, more on that just a moment, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 335 points. The rate cut should reduce payments on many home equity lines of credit, credit cards, and some car loans. In other words, we're headed for a soft landing. The FED has come in to save the day. Perversely, however, some economists say it could lead to higher rates down the road if bond markets expect the fed's move to spur higher economic growth or inflation. Again, quite literally the exact same thing that we're hearing in the mainstream media with these talking heads and these

experts today in 2024. All right, now let's get to this chart going back to April 07. Go from 0% up to 6%. Now this 50 basis point cut, we kind of take this stair stepper approach in editor. You can throw up the chart that we actually used from Fred, and it's kind of curved. I didn't really like it, so I created my own. We talked about this rate cut, but then they go ahead and cut 25 again in October, 25 again in December. What I want to highlight right here, January 22nd, just a week prior to their Fed meeting, they have an emergency meeting and cut by 75 basis points. So you would think at this time all the high-level economists and the PhDs working at the Fed would say, All right, now we probably got some problems, but you would be wrong. Editor, let's go right back to the Wall Street Journal. The central bank's move drew criticism. Bob Eisen, a former Executive Vice President of the Atlanta Fed, criticized Tuesday's rate cut.

characterizing it as premature in light of Fed policy committee's two-way meeting slated to begin January 29th. Again, this emergency meeting was just one week prior to them having a scheduled meeting where, oh by the way, they dropped by another 50 basis points. So, within one week's time, they dropped by 125 basis points. But getting back to the Wall Street Journal, Tuesday's move raises questions about whether the Fed has caved to market pressures. Wrote Mr. Eisenbeis, It's hard to conclude anything other than this move was geared to address market psychology rather than emerging weakness in the real sector. In other words, weakness in the real economy. So, my point is even when the Fed took interest rates from 5.25% straight down to 3% within the matter of just a few months, many of the experts were still saying that this was a mistake because the economy was strong. Oh, but wait, there is more. Look at this long pause that we have after aail, and at this point, they had taken rates from 5.25% all the way down to 2%, but then

the FED keeps them at 2% for quite a long period of time. Why? Well, once again, they thought that they had dropped rates so aggressively that they got ahead of any economic problem that could be lurking. More on that in just a moment, but I also want to point out October 9th. Today is October 8th. Editor, please go ahead and throw up a chart of the stock market. We'll say the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and you can see that right now, as we speak, the stock market is at or very near all-time highs. Well, where was it October 8th or 9th in 2007? Right at all-time highs. And then we go back to the chart when they start cutting rates in October. By this time, it is obvious that the stuff has hit the fan, and all of the talking heads and experts on CNBC are now screaming and yelling, saying that the FED has to do something. This is cataclysmic. This is a crisis. This is a global financial crisis.

these were the exact same people that were saying the economy is strong and resilient all the way from September 18th, 2007, to April 30th, 2008. Step number two. So, we discussed what the Fed was doing with short-term interest rates, but it's important we also dive into the details as to what was happening with long-term interest rates. You guys remember back in Step number one when I was showing that the FED paused their rate-cutting cycle in April of 2008, and they did this because the marketplace was more concerned about, believe it or not, inflation. Check this out, editor. Let's go right over to the Wall Street Journal before we get to these eye-popping, shocking, incredible charts from 2008. I'm reading from an article that came out the day after the headline CPI number was released for July 2008. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% from June, so that's month over month. I want to make it very clear that year-over-year, it rose to 5.6%. And before we move any further, I

want to point out the headline CPI number in September of 2007 when the FED first started cutting rates was right around 3.5%. So, September 18th, 2017, we get a 50 basis point cut, and then the FED drops rates straight down to 2%. So, this is a decrease of 325 basis points, in other words, 3.25%. And during this time, the headline CPI went from 3.5% up to 5.6%. Let's get back to the Wall Street Journal article that suggests Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates despite their policy statement last week that inflation remains a significant concern. The FED is generally expected to keep official interest rates steady until next year, though rate increases—let me read that again—though rate increases could end up back on the table later this year. And I want to point out this was August of 2008, just a couple of months later, interest rates were at 0%, and roughly a year later, the headline

CPI was negative 2, meaning 2% deflation. So now, let's fast forward back to 2024 and think about what the 10-year treasury yield has done since the FED dropped rates by 50 basis points. Now again, we're talking about September 18th, 2024, not 2007. And you guys probably know from watching my videos that interest rates, just using the 10-year treasury as a proxy, have pretty much gone straight up. Why? Because now the market is concerned that the FED dropped interest rates too much and therefore we will see an acceleration of inflation. The exact same thing they were worried about in August of 2008. And if we go back to 2008 and zoom in on a chart from January 22nd when the FED did that emergency 75 basis point rate cut to June or July when the CPI numbers started to go up to five and then five 5.6%. As you would expect, the 10-year treasury yield went from 3.51% all the way up to

4.27%, and again this was because the market was concerned that the Fed was dropping rates too aggressively into a strong and resilient economy, and that's what was creating the increase in the headlines CPI. And just 6 months after the 10-year treasury peaked at 4.27% because of inflation concerns, the 10-year treasury dropped all the way down to almost 2% because the market thought the global economy, including the US economy, was going into the greatest deflationary depression we had seen since the 1930s. Step number three. So we've gone over just some of the shocking similarities between October 2007 and October 2024, but now let's go over some differences. Like I say in my videos, there are no certainties, there are only probabilities. So let's start by looking at a chart going all the way back to July 2007 to January of 2009. H, I forgot to put 2009 there. And on the left, we go from 0% up

to 22.5%. So, these are just credit spreads, and in this case, we're comparing junk debt or high-yield corporate debt with their corresponding treasuries. So, we can see we start at 2.5%, and then we gradually go up to the point where the Fed did that first rate cut. It was right around, let's say, 5%. Then it gradually goes up and up and up. What I want to point out here first and foremost is that it actually declined going into that CPI report that we went over in step number two. So, the marketplace was way off sides, way off sides when we know what happened just a couple of months later where credit spreads completely blew out when the stuff was hitting the fan, going all the way up to 22.5%. So, this begs the question: where are credit spreads right now? Well, editor, go ahead and throw up a chart, and we can see that they are extremely low, and they're not really going up. If anything, they're going down. I believe they're right around 2.5%.

Right about where we started on this chart, but that's not all. Let's go ahead and look at construction jobs, and this is something that people tweet at me all the time, and they've got a good point. So, if we look at this Fred chart, we can see that every single time the economy is slowing down and we're going into a recession, construction jobs decline significantly. But now we have not seen that decline. Also, fiscal deficit spending. This could definitely be propping up the economy. Back in 2007, it was right around 3% of GDP. Today, we're at 6% of GDP, and that doesn't even include what China is doing with all of their quote-unquote stimulus. But I would like to point out that during 2008, the United States was doing their version of stimulus as well. If I recall correctly, it was right around January of 2008 when they were doing that emergency meeting and that drop of 75 basis points. And in one week's time, they dropped rates by 150 basis points. But oddly enough, many

In the mainstream media, they were saying that this stimulus is unnecessary because we only had maybe one bad month of data, but it was preceded by very, very strong or solid economic data. But let's not forget about nonfarm payrolls. I mean, just the other day, we had that blowout number where the market was expecting maybe 140,000 to 150,000 new jobs, and we got 255,000. That's much higher than we saw back in 2007. And initial claims are also a lot lower than they were in October of 2007. But I'd also like to point out that non-farm payrolls were also increasing back in 2007, September 18th, when the FED did their first 50 basis point cut. Let's also look at GDP because right now, people are expecting a blowout number based on what the projections are from the Atlanta Fed. And back during this time frame, the GDP, at least the headline number, wasn't that hot. But I'd also like to remind everyone it's a common theme that we're going through.

that after 2008, the Bureau of Economic Analysis went back and revised all of their numbers, not just down but way down for 2008 and also for some quarters of 2007. You say, Well, George, okay, how steep were those revisions? Well, editor, let's cut right to the Fed's website and hear it straight from the horse's mouth. During the Great Recession, the advanced releases of GDP sometimes bore little relation to the numbers that now appear in the official record. With the passing of time, the data were revised down, thus bringing the decline in GDP to an eye-watering minus 8.4% annually. And I love what they say next: Policymakers understood the gravity of the situation in real time. Of course, they did. The Fed always trying to make the central planners look like a hero. But let's go back to step number two when they were talking about inflation worries and increasing interest rates in August of 2008, just a couple of months before they dropped rates to 0%, and then a year later, we had actual -2%.

deflation doesn't really sound like policymakers knew what was going on in real time. The point of this video is not to say we are definitely going into a GFC 2.0; we may or we may not be. We won't know until this plays out again. There are no certainties; there are only probabilities. But we can't bury our head in the sand regarding the risks. I always say ignorance is a very poor investment strategy. And just because the mainstream media, the talking heads, and the quote-unquote experts right now are saying the economy is strong, the economy is resilient, and we've really got to be concerned about future inflation, it doesn't necessarily mean that in six months' time or a year's time we won't be talking about 0% interest rates and who knows, possibly outright deflation. The bottom line is every single time we go through one of these cycles that results in a recession or a hard landing, the vast majority of the people just prior to that hard landing, recession or

maybe even worse are always claiming the FED has engineered the perfect soft landing or even no landing and this time it's different. The exact same thing they're saying today. History might not repeat, but it sure does rhyme. For more content that'll help you build wealth and thrive in a world of out-of-control central banks and big governments, check out this playlist right here, and I will see you on the next video.

October 2007 vs. October 2024 (Similarities Are SHOCKING)

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2024년 10월과 2007년 10월의 유사점

최근 연준이 2024년 9월 18일에 금리를 4.

75%로 50bp 인하한 것은 2007년과 같은 조치로 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰습니다.

두 차례의 금리 인하 모두 시장을 놀라게 했고 경제 성장과 인플레이션 상승이 가속화될 것이라는 예측으로 이어졌습니다.

두 연도 사이에 전문가와 주류 언론의 서술이 유사하다는 점은 연준의 조치가 경제에 미칠 잠재적 영향에 대한 의문을 제기합니다.

연방 준비 은행의 금리 인하와 비판

연준은 2024년에 50bp 인하를 시작으로 10월과 12월에 두 차례 25bp 인하를 단행하는 등 일련의 금리 인하를 시행했습니다.

2024년 1월 긴급 회의에서 75bp 인하를 단행하면서 연준의 의사 결정과 시장 압력에 대한 대응에 대한 의문이 제기되었습니다.

25%에서 2%로 공격적으로 금리를 인하했지만 전문가들은 시기상조라고 비판했고, 2007년 10월 주식 시장이 사상 최고치를 기록하면서 금융 위기 가능성에 대한 우려가 커졌습니다.

연방준비제도의 금리 변동이 미치는 영향

2007년 9월부터 2008년 4월까지 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 사이클은 경제 문제를 해결하기 위한 것이었지만, 인플레이션 우려로 인해 장기 금리는 계속 상승했습니다.

연준의 금리 인하 노력에도 불구하고 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 2007년 9월 3.

2024년 현재 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 2008년의 상황과 유사하게 연준의 금리 인하로 인한 잠재적 인플레이션에 대한 시장의 우려를 반영하여 상승하고 있습니다.

경제 동향 비교: 2007년 10월 대 2024년 10월

10년 만기 국채 수익률은 인플레이션 우려로 4.

27%로 정점을 찍었지만 이후 시장이 디플레이션을 예상하면서 거의 2%까지 떨어졌습니다.

정크본드와 국채의 신용 스프레드는 2007년에 2.

5%에서 시작하여 점차 상승한 반면, 현재 신용 스프레드는 낮고 하락하고 있습니다.

건설 일자리는 이번에도 크게 감소하지 않았고, 재정 적자 지출은 현재 더 높아 잠재적으로 경제를 지탱할 수 있습니다.

주류 언론은 최근 한 달간의 부진한 데이터를 인용하며 경기 부양책이 불필요하다고 주장합니다.

그러나 비농업 고용은 예상을 뛰어넘는 큰 폭의 증가세를 보이며 2007년보다 더 강한 고용 시장을 반영하고 있습니다.

GDP 전망치도 잠재적인 폭발적인 수치를 나타내고 있지만, 경제분석국의 과거 데이터 수정을 보면 해당 기간 동안 경제 지표의 정확성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

정책 입안자들은 종종 실시간 경제 상황을 파악하는 데 어려움을 겪기 때문에 미래의 결과를 예측하기 어렵습니다.

일부 전문가들은 경제가 강세를 보이고 있다고 주장하지만, 향후 0% 금리와 디플레이션에 직면할 가능성도 있습니다.

많은 사람들이 경기 침체나 경착륜이 발생하기 직전에 완벽한 경제 연착륙을 자신 있게 예측하는 등 역사는 반복되는 경향이 있습니다.