AI 기반 인력에서 휴머노이드 로봇의 부상

AI를 기반으로 하는 휴머노이드 로봇은 노동에 혁명을 일으켜 잠재적으로 일자리를 채우고 전 세계 산업을 변화시킬 준비가 되어 있습니다.

### AI 기반 휴머노이드 로봇의 부상: 노동의 변화와 글로벌 군비 경쟁의 형성
* 🤖 Digit과 같은 휴머노이드 로봇은 인간의 언어를 해석하고 작업을 수행하도록 설계되었으며, **주요 기술 기업과 투자자들이 인력을 혁신할 수 있는 잠재력**을 지지하고 있습니다.
* 🧠 최근 인공지능(AI)의 발전으로 **휴머노이드 로봇의 기능이 크게 향상**되어 실제 데이터를 통해 학습하고 자율적으로 작업을 수행할 수 있게 되었습니다.
* 💰 2035년까지 **380억 달러 규모로 성장**할 것으로 예상되는 휴머노이드 로봇 스타트업에 투자자들이 **수백만 달러를 쏟아붓고 있습니다.**
* 🏭 휴머노이드 로봇은 이미 공장과 창고에 배치되고 있으며, **테슬라와 어질리티 로보틱스가 얼리 어답터 중 하나**입니다.
* 🤔 휴머노이드 로봇은 노동력 부족 문제를 해결하고 위험하거나 지루한 작업을 수행할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있지만, **로봇이 인간의 일자리를 대체할 것**이라는 전망은 여전히 논쟁의 여지가 있습니다.
* 🚫 안전과 비용은 휴머노이드 로봇의 광범위한 채택을 가로막는 **주요 장애물**이며, **안전 규정과 비용 절감의 필요성**이 주요 과제입니다.
* 🇨🇳 중국은 **비용 이점을 활용**하고 시장 점유율을 빠르게 늘리면서 **휴머노이드 로봇 산업에서 지배적인 업체**로 부상했습니다.
* 🛡 미국은 휴머노이드 로봇 개발을 중요한 국가 경쟁력 및 안보 문제로 인식하고 있으며, **미국과 유럽이 휴머노이드 로봇 도입을 선도**하기 위한 노력을 기울이고 있습니다.

Hey, digit, take the box with the heaviest animal and move it to tower four. This is digit, a robot who sort of looks like a person, hence the name Humanoid Robot. Technically, these are called bipedal humanoid robots. Using semantic intelligence, it's able to interpret commands from people and then make its own decisions about how to act. So the goal is for him to be able to interpret normal human language, to say, hey, I need you to pick this box up, help me out in this instance, is that where you see this going? Yeah. And I think it will generally be probably less of a I need you to do this one thing for me and more of a do this for me forever. In the corner of the facility. Robots like this one are catching the attention and billions of investment dollars from big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft. Elon Musk is betting the future of Tesla on these machines.

As you see Optimus develop, it's really going to transform the world. I think to a degree even greater than the cars. Some also argue robots like digit can solve the world's labor crisis, filling jobs that are too dangerous or that people simply don't want. They may even replace an aging workforce, as people around the world have fewer kids. Today in manufacturing, we are short about 300,000 people, and it's something very similar in warehousing and logistics. So we're somewhere around 6 or 700,000 jobs we can't fill. The idea of robots isn't exactly new. Here I am, sir. So why all of a sudden attention? The big driver, artificial intelligence. These bots have seen quantum leaps in what they're capable of in just the past few years, thanks to AI. Generative AI is really a key unlock overall for what you can get a robot to do, let alone a humanoid robot.

Robotics is where AI meets reality. We are really at the cusp of solving one of the grand
challenges of humanity. It will change labor forever. There is probably a need in the future once the
humanoids get a bit more clever, a bit more perhaps autonomy. But until that point, I think the market
will be fairly limited to PR spectacles. It all sounds great, but will we ever trust robots
working in our houses, schools, and nursing homes? Will they ever be safe enough? And how lifelike is too lifelike? And how should the US think about global adversaries
building similar fleets of humanoids? CNBC explores the rise of these AI-driven humanoids. And if they're really a cure-all for our global
workforce problems, or if this is another tech bubble. This hardware has been around for decades. Companies like Boston Dynamics, Honda, Sony, and others
have wowed the public with early versions of these

robots. Why would we want humanoids? The prevailing sort of answer has been the world is
built to be occupied by humans, so. We want robots that are versatile, that can do a wide
range of things. Then having it adopt the humanoid form factor always
made a lot of sense. Recent leaps in artificial intelligence have resulted
in leaps for robotics. The data that they use to train these robots is based
in real world scenarios. Now, a robot can be trained the same way a human is. We have this technology called Teleoperation. The person does the thing 200 times, we record all
that data, and then we use that data to train these models. And the AI models are very similar to the GPT
style generative AI models. You feed in the 200 trajectories and the system learns
how the task is being done, and then the robot will do the task autonomously. If I go into a new space, I'm now not looking at
spending months trying to code that problem.

I can potentially just generate it straight out of gen. AI and be able to have digit interact with new objects and new environments without having to develop at all. AI models require massive quantities of data to train off of, and this is no different. If you show the robot enough things, it starts to be able to do things that it hasn't been shown before. Big tech is very interested in the big potential this technology promises. If you're going to do AI at the frontier, you need to be partnered with Microsoft or Nvidia or Google or one of the big players. There's just no other way. They have resources that nobody else has, even governments. Nvidia's been a great partner up until this point. We're using everything from their hardware to their simulation, and then recently have started working with them on foundation models as well. One of this industry's biggest proponents is Elon Musk. He's made some bold predictions that Tesla's robot, Optimus could propel it to a $25 trillion market.

cap, and that it will amount to a majority of Tesla's long-term value, with demand as high as 10 to 20 billion units. Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels. And with the full self-driving computer and all the neural nets, it kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form. And it's intended to be friendly, of course, and navigate through a world built for humans and eliminate dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks. Musk isn't alone in believing humanoid robots could change the world. Investors are pouring millions into startups, with the market expected to grow to $38 billion by 2035. The funding that has gone into these, some of these companies, has been absolutely huge. And I think that's kind of the parallel with the AI funding. This is the biggest market in the world. I mean, effectively this has the potential to change the way we live and work pretty dramatically.

Humanoid robots are closer to being a real part of our workforce than you might think. Some companies are already deploying them in factories and warehouses. Tesla claims it has two Optimus humanoid robots in its factory. During Tesla's 2024 first quarter earnings call, Musk said he believes Optimus will be performing tasks in Tesla's factories by the end of the year, and that it could start selling the robot to outside customers by the end of 2025. At the company's 2024 investor day in June, Musk predicted it could have over a thousand or a few thousand robots working at Tesla next year. Musk saying that Optimus will be bigger than the cars. So I presume that means that they are spending huge amounts of this. I wouldn't underestimate them. Digit, created by Oregon-based Agility Robotics, is helping Amazon in early-stage testing at its Sumner, Washington, fulfillment center and innovation lab.

We've been working with them recycling totes. The arms are capable of handling a wide variety of different payloads, up to about 33 ish pounds. Agility says it plans to keep expanding the scope of work that digit is capable of. We envision an app store for robots out in the future where if you need Tote recycling app, you can go into the App Store and download that onto your robot. And according to the company, there is plenty of demand. Agility is building a factory in Salem, Oregon to keep up with orders. We call it robo fab. Will be open online this summer, and in a few years, have a capacity of about 10,000 robots per year. And where will those go? For the most part, to many, many customers, but largely initially in the logistics warehousing space. The next big market we see is automotive, retail, and then eventually into markets like healthcare.

Several other startups are developing similar humanoid robots. Sanctuary AI launched in 2018 in Vancouver, Canada unveiled its latest robot last year. Phoenix, a five-foot-seven robot capable of lifting up to 55 pounds. It looks a bit different from other humanoid designs, trading its legs for wheels. Robots with legs. The upper body, including the hands, have to be very weak and light. So instead of doing that, we put our product on a wheeled base, and because we made that trade-off, we can build very powerful, very precise, very fast motors in the upper body. The company deployed early iterations of its robot with Canadian Tire, completing front and back of store tasks such as picking and packing merchandise. Robots were asked to do everything from greeting people when they come through the door to actually putting things on trucks. Sanctuary says it's close to releasing its eighth-generation robot in the next few months and has

partnered with automotive manufacturer Magna to help
build its robots at scale. Optronics started in 2016 as a spin out from the Human
Centered Robotics Lab at the University of Texas at Austin. It began with an initial project to help NASA
build a generalized humanoid robot. The company says it's now on its eighth version of a
humanoid. All of that has culminated in building the robot that
we essentially always dreamed of building: a robot called Apollo, which is a mass-manufacturable
commercial humanoid robot. With a max payload of 55 pounds and a swappable four-
hour battery, Apollo is designed to help support logistics and
manufacturing to start, with retail as its next focus. We've got to prove out sort of the simpler tasks, but
my dream is for Apollo, hopefully to be ready in time to help my parents, hopefully to help me as I
get old. The company says it has deployed Apollo in pilots with
Mercedes-Benz, GXO, and others.

We started with pretty simple tasks, things like moving boxes or moving cases from one place to another. What we're moving into is doing more dexterity and more end-to-end tasks, and then hope to be in full commercial launch by the end of next year. It's no wonder tech companies have taken notice. Some Wall Street analysts predict these robots are the next must-have device, not unlike smartphones or EVs, but they also say such robots would be vital for manufacturing and dangerous work. But they would also help with elderly care and fill in labor shortages in factories. There's already too few workers to fill all of the world's manufacturing jobs. It's an estimated shortage of 500,000 people, and by 2030, Goldman Sachs thinks that will grow to a shortage of 2 million workers. Imagine I could give you a labor force that costs the price of electricity, you know, a few cents an hour per worker. And they were equipped with the kinds of general intelligence that you might imagine comes like

in science fiction. There's going to be things that
you think of that will dramatically improve your life, no matter who you are. We've only automated 10% of automotive manufacturing. If we can automate a much higher degree, it would
dramatically change the economy. We have the ability to add new tools. You can imagine if you needed to put a rivet into a
car or something, you could actually have the screw produced in the hand. But robots taking human jobs can be a contentious
topic. What would you tell those people who you know there
are certain jobs that might be lost as a result of this? Actually, we've heard from some of those people, and
what their jobs start to evolve into is the manager of the robot fleet. They can be deployed in coal mines, in fires, for
rescue efforts, where it might not be as safe for a human being. There are just some jobs that people don't want. Proponents say a humanoid can help fill those.

There's about 10 million open jobs in the United States alone. We could build and maintain 10 million of the robots that we're talking about, without touching a single job. If you have to lift sort of 55 pounds, somewhere between 50 and 100 times an hour, that's a serious workout. So we're taking these dirty, dull, and dangerous jobs first. How far away are we from digit doing your laundry? That's probably more along the lines of, you know, a decade or more. Is there a kill switch? For lack of a better term? There is a kill switch. It's the big red button over there. The big red button over there. These are 140 pounds. They have a lot of torque in their hands and arms and legs. And so you have to be very conscious of the situation when robots are interfacing with humans. The biggest sort of short-term obstacle we have is safety.

The UN has sort of put together a committee that's called AI for good, which is basically coming up with policy recommendations at a UN level for how should countries think about AI and also think about robotics. For Agility's deployment of digit, its robots operate away from human workers for safety reasons. So right now digit is Non-collaborative, and we're working to what's called collaborative safety, which is being able to formally verify, according to international standards, that digit is safe to be in close proximity to a person. We have very tight safety regulations today. And then eventually, OSHA is the workplace safety organization that actually has to approve any deployment. So it's very regulated to make sure that we don't get bad accidents. Another big roadblock: the cost. Humanoid robots are expensive, complex pieces of machinery. For them to go mainstream, that's going to have to change. It's really expensive to even try to do this, and you have to have investors who are willing to take risks.

because, you know, nobody's done this before. Elon Musk came out with this idea that it should cost
less than $20,000, and that would be a level where mass adoption would be possible. I think we'll have to wait quite a few years, probably
a decade at least. Agility says its robots can be purchased up front, with
an additional software as a service fee, or a bundled monthly fee for robots as a service. As long as they have the robot, we help maintain it,
take care of it, keep the software updated, and they just pay on a monthly basis. What does one of these robots cost? How should people think about it? Is it like buying a car or a boat? I'd say it's like buying an expensive car, but the
costs are coming down very, very quickly. While the US has seen activity in humanoid robots
explode, China is giving the West a run for its money. It already dominates the industry, surpassing Japan in
2013 as the world's largest installer of

industrial robots, and now accounts for more than half
of the global total. China. The market is absolutely huge. For example, in mobile robots, this is the biggest in the
world. The only other company in the West that has anything
similar to the quantities that the companies have in China is Amazon. But Chinese companies are catching up
fast. If you just count the number of humanoid robots that
have come onto the scene over the last year, about half of them are from Chinese companies. Interestingly, you've seen companies like BYD also
invest. There's a broader effort to get the capital into this
industry in China. One of China's biggest competitive advantages is cost. They need to source these parts almost custom made. Being based in China, they're closer to the factories
that can make these parts potentially at a lower cost. Unitary in China. They came out with this $16,000 humanoid, which is a
very exciting development. But what can the robot actually do?

That's a huge question. I think an interesting space to watch will be in the components once there are more standards, and potentially the factories that have been making some of these components for the humanoid startups in China. They could also sell those parts overseas. Competitiveness in this space is crucial for the US, which has been seeking to keep its edge over China as geopolitical tensions rise. Even though the US invented the very first robot, 100% of all major industrial robots were produced outside of the US by foreign companies. I think of the humanoid race as effectively the next space race, and it has major implications for both national competitiveness and national security. In terms of large economics, it is China versus the US. We need to make sure that the big applications for this are in the US and in Europe, because if it's not, then we're going to lose that arms race. This is a real arms race and we better make sure we win it.

There are still very real roadblocks. Cost and safety are the biggest near-term issues. Finally, there's questions over how to regulate the space, similar to questions on how to regulate AI. Even the robot's biggest advocates say they want to put up guardrails to make sure those eventually working alongside humanoids aren't put in harm's way. But they're also competitive, and they want this industry to innovate with an ability to move quickly enough to keep up with rapid progress abroad. This is really the beginning of a new industry. Think of this like the personal computer in the early 80s. It will have potentially bigger impacts than the personal computer. These robots are going to give us all back time.

Why Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon And More Are Betting Big On AI-Powered Humanoid Robots

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AI 기반 휴머노이드 로봇의 부상

Digit과 같은 휴머노이드 로봇은 거대 기술 기업들로부터 수십억 달러의 투자를 유치하고 있으며, 전 세계 노동력 위기에 대한 해결책으로 여겨지고 있습니다.

이러한 로봇의 개발은 인공지능에 의해 크게 주도되고 있으며, 노동 시장을 변화시킬 잠재력을 가지고 있습니다.

그러나 휴머노이드 로봇을 사회의 다양한 측면에 통합하는 데 따른 신뢰, 안전, 윤리적 영향에 대한 의문은 여전히 남아 있습니다.

인공지능 시대의 휴머노이드 로봇의 부상

최근 인공 지능의 발전으로 로봇 공학이 크게 발전하여 로봇이 실제 시나리오를 학습하고 자율적으로 작업을 수행할 수 있게 되었습니다.

이는 방대한 양의 데이터를 사용하여 AI 모델을 학습시킴으로써 가능하며, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google과 같은 대기업이 이 분야를 선도하고 있습니다.

엘론 머스크는 휴머노이드 로봇의 주요 지지자로서, 테슬라의 로봇이 시가총액 25조 달러에 달하는 회사 가치를 혁신할 수 있을 것으로 예측하고 있습니다.

휴머노이드 로봇의 잠재력에 대한 이러한 믿음은 스타트업에 막대한 자금을 투자하고 있는 투자자들도 공유하고 있으며, 2035년까지 시장이 380억 달러에 달하고 우리의 생활과 업무 방식을 근본적으로 변화시킬 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

업무 현장에서 휴머노이드 로봇의 급부상

Tesla와 Agility Robotics와 같은 회사는 이미 공장과 창고에서 휴머노이드 로봇을 사용하고 있으며, 이를 크게 확장할 계획입니다.

테슬라의 옵티머스 로봇은 곧 자사 공장에서 작업을 수행하고 2025년에는 다른 고객들에게도 판매될 예정입니다.

한편 생츄어리 AI는 무거운 짐을 들어 올릴 수 있는 바퀴 달린 휴머노이드 로봇인 피닉스를 공개했으며, 다양한 업무에 활용할 수 있는 8세대 로봇을 출시하기 위해 준비 중입니다.

이러한 첨단 기계에 대한 수요가 증가함에 따라 휴머노이드 로봇의 사용은 가까운 미래에 자동차, 소매업, 의료 산업으로 확대될 것으로 예상됩니다.

옵트로닉스의 상업용 휴머노이드 로봇 아폴로 제작 여정

오스틴에 위치한 텍사스 대학교의 인간 중심 로봇 공학 연구소에서 출발한 Optronics는 자동차 제조업체 Magna와 제휴하여 로봇 생산 규모를 확대하고 있습니다.

이 회사는 물류, 제조, 궁극적으로는 소매업용으로 설계된 대량 생산이 가능한 상업용 휴머노이드 로봇인 아폴로를 개발했습니다.

아폴로는 이미 메르세데스 벤츠, GXO 등에 시범적으로 배치되었으며, 내년 말에는 본격적인 상용 출시가 예정되어 있습니다.

이 회사는 아폴로와 같은 휴머노이드 로봇이 공장의 인력 부족 문제를 해결하고, 노인 돌봄을 돕고, 위험한 작업을 수행하여 잠재적으로 경제를 변화시킬 수 있다고 믿습니다.

미국에는 약 1,000만 개의 일자리가 있으며, 육체적으로 힘들거나 위험한 직무에 로봇을 사용할 수 있는 잠재력을 우선적으로 고려해야 합니다.

이러한 로봇의 주요 장애물은 안전 문제, 엄격한 규제, 높은 비용으로, 로봇이 주류로 채택되기 위해서는 이러한 비용을 낮춰야 합니다.

중국은 휴머노이드 로봇 산업에서 미국과 경쟁하며 설치 대수에서 일본을 능가하는 주요 국가가 되었습니다.

글로벌 산업용 로봇 시장에서 중국의 부상

중국은 산업용 로봇, 특히 모바일 로봇과 휴머노이드 로봇 생산에서 가장 큰 시장이 되었습니다.

중국 기업들은 비용과 맞춤형 부품 생산에서 경쟁 우위를 바탕으로 빠르게 따라잡고 있습니다.

산업용 로봇 산업에서 중국의 경쟁력 강화는 미국에 도전이 되고 있으며, 이는 국가 경쟁력과 안보에 중대한 영향을 미치는 지정학적 '군비 경쟁'으로 이어지고 있습니다.