Hello, this is Orlando Kim. Today, NVIDIA has dropped significantly, so let's take a look at how to trade. I will also analyze the current market situation. First, let's take a look at the PMI index. It has fallen below 50, indicating that the current stock price may decline. To put it simply, let's say you are running a bakery and need to buy ingredients. You would need to purchase flour, wheat flour, sugar, and salt. However, as a buyer or a buyer manager, if you think these items may not sell well, you might decide to buy only a small amount. Therefore, if you buy less, the economy will contract, leading to reduced sales.

Expecting that many will purchase, it goes into a definite phase. So, since it's not selling much right now, the economy is unlikely to shrink for now. This is how you should view it. However, if you look at the time when the buyer management index came out, the time of the PMI announcement was 10 a.m. in the morning. So, although it was 10 a.m., if you actually look at the time when the market turned, it was at 9:45 a.m. You should see it as it turned 15 minutes earlier. So, the question is, did it really turn because of the PMI? I don't think so. Then, why did it experience a further decline after the PMI index was released at 9:45 a.m.? We need to find out who or what caused it to turn at 9:45 a.m. Let's take a look at the reason for that appearance.

Once you start looking, the yen will first turn at 9 o'clock. It will turn first at 9 o'clock. Who is this? It's USD, JPY. If you see it like this, JPY was quite strong. Now, due to a 0.25% increase in interest rates, the yen chart is showing a considerable strength. Now, the yen is turning first, then NVIDIA, and next, the PMI index came out. This is how you should see it. Amidst this, the main culprit now is undoubtedly the capital of the carry trade. Those who have been buying a lot in yen so far are now selling all their stocks. That's the meaning of it. Therefore, now, it's not primarily due to the PMI economic index but because of the yen carry trade that it turned first. Then NVIDIA turned, and the rest was in a state of collapse. This is how today's market situation should be interpreted.

I would like to say that the most important line in terms of carry unwinding right now is the 152 line, not the 150 line, but the 152 line. When the 152 line was broken strongly, everything turned into a bubble. If you see it this way, even when the yen is strong, if you keep pulling it up, the hedge funds have sold everything due to a 0.25% rate hike, everything has turned into a bubble. It really means that carry is unwinding. They are selling NVIDIA. Originally, as I mentioned last time, people usually buy things like US dollars or Australian dollars because the interest rates are high, not 0.01 but around 0.0 now, so they buy a safe asset and come out with a 0.3 profit. This kind of carry is normal for the yen.

These days, people like Carrie borrow money like this, buy stocks, and even purchase real estate with that money. However, when interest rates rise, the funds they borrowed end up being crushed. They have to sell everything off and start all over again. Eventually, they have to enter Japan. In this situation, it seems that the stock prices are not looking good. We need to observe how these things will move forward. Now, let's take a look at the NVIDIA daily chart. There is a white line which is the 20-day moving average, and it is above the 200-day moving average. This means that the market is strong in the current situation. In the long term, it still seems to be upward, but if it goes down, it doesn't look good at the moment. So, that's why.

The phrase being on the front line well, in the long term, the trend is upward. So, the 50-day line, this is the 50-day line, the 20-day line, the 10-day line. If it bends below the 50-day line, there seems to be a shape like that. Frankly speaking, in order to strongly break through the $120 level, it needs to go up through this quarter's performance. I can say this, and in order to achieve that, because it is currently below the front line, there seems to be a slightly downward trend in the long term. I can say that. And the most important line is now around the $100 level. When it reaches around $100, whether we can buy or if we cannot buy and need to cut losses, that decision is not determined by external factors, but by internal factors, the fundamentals. So, if you know the fundamentals, even in this downward market, we can accumulate a bit.

It will be there. So, let's find out the accurate fundamentals. That's what I'm saying. So, what is the most important thing in terms of MBTI right now? It's how much the mega-captor capital expenditure is increasing or decreasing at this point. So, if the capital expenditure turns, we should throw it, but if the capital expenditure is rising, it's not time to throw yet; it's time to gather. In short, it is expected that the capital expenditure will increase more in 2024 and will be taken to 2025. These kinds of outlooks are shown. Also, even in Microsoft, the capital expenditure is continuing to increase. So, in this situation, it's not the time to throw, but the time to gather. That's what I'm saying. Next, let's talk about Google.

Please look at Google's current state. Now, the CapEx itself is continuing to increase. So, first of all, what Sundar Pichai is saying is that the risk of underinvestment is much greater than the risk of overinvestment. It's not the time to hesitate and wait to collect it now. Their lives are at stake. Therefore, in the current situation, it's not the time to throw it away. I would like to move on to Meta. In the case of Meta, it is predicted that the total capital expenditure for 2024 will be between 35 to 40 billion dollars. If we look at the updated information, it is expected to be between 37 to 40 billion dollars. It means that they have spent more. As a result, it is expected that significant capital expenditure will increase in 2025. Even if we look at it separately, the capital expenditure for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023 is expected to increase significantly.

There are differences, and there are significant differences even from the yy perspective, so because of being in the midst of that, it continues to increase for now. So, wouldn't it be a perspective of gradually accumulating a little every time it falls now? It seems like that. Even if you look at the Meta's capital expenditure graph, there is a position of it continuously decreasing compared to the previous quarter. So, because of being in such a situation, it seems to be going down further here, indicating the expectation now. Therefore, for now, when it falls, it is recommended to gradually buy in small amounts. Next, let's look into AMD. AMD is not a big tech, but it is in a competitive relationship with mbd now. Because of being in that situation, AMD's revenue has been quite good now. So, it means that mbd's revenue must also be good. The reason is that now mbd is selling everything first, and then it is being sold again.

Do you agree? It is predicted that way. Next, Capital Ex is also continuing to increase at the moment. So, when it comes to the Q&A session, let me ask Lisa about whether customers are getting the right RO return on their investment along with AI monetization. There is ongoing debate about that. So, how does Lucy respond to that? If you take a look, the general view on AI investment is that we should invest. What I mean is that the industry should invest, and the potential of AI is significant enough to impact the way businesses operate and everything else. Therefore, it is predicted that investment will continue to strengthen. In short, since it affects everything, there is no way to avoid investing. So, it seems that MBDI revenue will inevitably increase.

So, I will say that, next, let's take a look at Amazon. Once you take a look at Amazon, it may not seem that good at first, but despite that, capital spending is continuing to increase. Let's take a look at that appearance. If you take a look at what Amazon is talking about in the conference call, the first half capex was $30.5 billion, and looking at the remaining period of 2024, it is expected that capital investment will be higher in the second half. Therefore, it continues to talk about ongoing capital investment. Looking at most of the spending, there is strong demand in both generative AI and non-generative AI workloads, which is supporting the increasing demand for AWS infrastructure. They are emphasizing that the cost of computing for learning and inference is very important, and they are currently in a close partnership with NVIDIA.

We are currently providing NVIDIA's instant, but we are hearing that customers prefer better performance for the price. So, we have invested in silicon for inference. Due to this, NVIDIA may fall behind a bit in inference. Anyway, for now, we are continuing to increase sales. Next, let's take a look at Apple. In terms of this quarter's performance, it wasn't that bad, but it wasn't significantly good either. The gross margin is still increasing. What I want to point out is that research and development expenses are continuously increasing this quarter compared to the previous year.

During the past nine months, it seems that Apple, a company where continuous research and development takes place, has significantly increased its profits even in the quarterly report. So, through the conference call, let's find out what kind of information has been shared. If we take a look at Apple's current conference call, they were asked whether they are expanding R&D further, increasing cloud computing capacity, or cutting operating costs. When asked about this, they mentioned that they are indeed expanding R&D, as you may have seen on the income statement. They have been investing in AI and machine learning for several years. It is important to remember that they use a hybrid approach in certain aspects, working internally and also engaging in external businesses where fax comes into play.

We have specific partners. Of course, the most important thing is what we can expect, which is to continue investing and increasing it every year. In other words, to keep increasing the fax, that's the meaning. Of course, now we have TPUs, but it will be difficult to use TPUs directly, and it will take at least a year to go into practical commercialization. So, in order to go into practical commercialization, well, GPUs will continue to increase, it seems. So, we can see that. Well, this time, OpenAI has announced a partnership, and more partnerships are expected to come in the future. Investors are currently investing in potential partners related to faxes. So, the focus is on whether there is a monetization model around such partnerships, in other words, whether they can make money. So, when I asked about that, most of the investors are asking about these things right now. So, monetization.

Models do not want to talk about commercial contract terms because it is confidential between the parties. So, to some extent, they have close plans among themselves. Therefore, there are conditions of the contract. As time passes, they will have to continue to invest, mainly through faxes. This is why I am saying this. So, if we come to a conclusion, big tech companies like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google are confirming the rapid growth of AI-based faxes, leading to a competition to build the computing power needed for artificial intelligence. Ultimately, it is expected that the total capital expenditure of big tech companies over the next 4-5 years will exceed $1 trillion.

Being in the middle means there is still a long way to go. So, in the current situation like this, when the valuation decreases a bit, if you slowly accumulate, it will be enough. Will we not go to the price we want, which is important to us? This is how the current prediction goes. Thank you for watching the video to the end. If the video was helpful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.

엔비디아(nvda) 정말 경기침체로 주가가 하락했나?

 # 미국 현지투자자가 30년 투자 기간동안 수없이 많은 시행착오를 통해 얻은 실전투자 매매 노하우를 솔직하게 공유하겠습니다

(유튜버 소개)
    MBA(skku), 자문사 운용역, 창투사 심사역,주식 및 외환,선물 투자 경력 30 년 차.

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