Hello, this is Kim from Orlando. Today, we will take a look at the stock market. With the stock prices dropping significantly, we need to consider whether it is time to sell, to buy, or to hold on until the end. Let's examine the daily chart of the stock market. Currently, we can say that we are at a short-term peak due to the appearance of a reversal signal. The most important question now is how far this will go. The pattern we see is similar to a previous upward movement that occurred after a gap. That gap is significant, and we need to see if it continues to hold. If it drops sharply, there may be further declines. However, from my perspective, I believe this is an opportunity for buying at this level. The stochastic indicator is also at a low point, so if we look at the current situation with a longer-term perspective, we can always...

You can see that it has crossed the 20-day moving average. If you take a look at the chart, you can see that every time it matched this pattern, the stock price continued to decline. This indicates that whenever it matched this pattern, the stock price fell, and it kept going up. Given this situation, even though it is currently rising from a double bottom or a triple bottom, there is a high possibility that it may decline again due to resistance at the 200-day moving average. That is the implication. We are looking at it from a reverse perspective. 

In this context, the most important thing is to identify the numbers. We need to understand how far we can rely on the chart and whether there are reasons for the stock to rise given this pattern. Now, let's analyze the reasons for the potential rise in terms of figures, including sales and profits, among other aspects. As I mentioned previously, regarding the monthly chart...

Looking at the annual salary, I mentioned that there should be a rationale for this when we look at the chart. It needs to be represented numerically. So, the most important thing is to see how the MBDI revenue is forming. If we look at the transition from 2023 to 2024, we see an increase of 0%, 120%, and 125%. It has increased significantly. Therefore, the stock price has risen more than tenfold. On the other hand, when we move from 2024 to 2025, the figures are 125% and 105%. There isn't a significant difference. This indicates that the current rise from here to there shows a certain pattern, and because of this slight downturn, the stock price doesn't completely drop. Instead, we can see that the stock price is actually starting to decline from here. Specifically, as we begin 2025 and move into 2026, at that time...

The growth rate drops sharply from 105% to 39.7%. At this point, the growth rate of sales, which decreases from a three-digit number to a two-digit number, is here. As I have mentioned several times, by 2026, we will reach a certain level of conclusion. Given that stock prices tend to lead by about six months, I believe that the stock price will not lose momentum until the first half of 2025, and especially as we approach the middle of that year. This means that the time when the growth rate of sales starts to decline is around the middle of 2025. 

From 125,000 to 175,000, the growth rates of 105% and 39.7% indicate a transition to a two-digit growth rate. Similarly, this area also shows a two-digit growth rate, although it is slightly weaker, and this is the point where it completely declines. Therefore, I would suggest holding on until this point. In this context, we can conclude that we are reaching a peak, leading to a downturn.

At this point, it seems that the stock price won't go down. If, from there, not only Black but also Ruben and others start to push forward even more, it could change. However, in the current situation, I consider this to be the primary margin line. Now, not only sales but also the EPS, or earnings per share, should be examined. EPS is calculated by dividing the earnings by the number of shares, so we are looking at how much profit there is per share. As we move from 2023 to 2024, we see that it has risen dramatically by 288% from a nearly negative margin. The stock price has jumped significantly, aligning with the earnings because stock prices always lead and move together with profits. Looking ahead to 2025, we see an increase of 119%, but at some point, it is starting to decrease, indicating that it is experiencing a downturn.

However, the important thing is that this is a three-digit number, while this is going to be a two-digit number. Its 40% here has become about 120%, and there is roughly a threefold difference at 40%. In other words, the growth rate itself, specifically the EPS growth rate, is significantly decreasing. This will happen around 2025 or into 2026. Therefore, it is expected to show a pattern like this in 2020, indicating a six-month lead time. That point will likely be the peak in the first half of 2025. This is how the current sales and profit combine. Next, let's take a look at the gross margin. I mentioned the gross margin last time. We have sales, and if we subtract the cost of revenue from the sales, we then divide that by the sales again. This shows how much profit is being generated relative to the sales. So, for 2023, it is expected to be 59.

Currently, the manufacturing companies are showing an increase of over 70%, with rates at 73%, 75%, 74%, and 74%. This significant growth indicates that these companies are performing well. Given this context, it is reasonable to expect that the stock prices can rise accordingly, reflecting their strong fundamentals, as seen with Nvidia.

Next, let's take a look at the performance of Netcom. We need to examine the net profit and its growth rate. For 2024, it has reached 581. Given such a substantial increase, it's challenging to compare this figure directly. Therefore, a decline in growth is to be expected. The growth rate here is currently at 127%, indicating a doubling, which is quite impressive. However, by 2026, the growth is projected to decrease significantly, with a reduction of about 35%. This suggests a substantial decline in growth potential, roughly fourfold.

This is a two-digit number, which means it has decreased significantly. To be honest, the revenue from the company has also declined, and as you saw earlier, the EPS has decreased as well. Therefore, it seems that the reading company is also experiencing a decline. This suggests that we might be reaching a peak around this time. That's what it looks like, so we are currently looking at the first half of 2025. 

Next, similarly, there's the concept of cash operations. It's crucial to know how much money I'm making through operations. In the case of reading differentials, net income can be seen as secondary net income, but the important aspect is how much money is being made through operations. So, in 2024, it was 398, which was a significant increase, but in 2025, it is projected to decrease by about 123%. This is the point where it begins to decline, which is why the stock price is currently...

We are currently at a standstill, but by 2025, we will transition from two-digit figures to three-digit figures. This means we are surpassing 40% Pro. When it was about three times, the rate is decreasing significantly, and now we are experiencing a considerable drop in speed. Therefore, the capital operation at that time will be at a certain level, and it seems that the peak will likely occur around the middle of that period.

Next, let's take a look at ROE, which stands for Return on Equity. This measures how much profit we are generating compared to our equity. If we look at the balance sheet, I mentioned that this is the asset side, while this is the liability side. Here is our current equity. Essentially, it shows how much return is being generated from the equity that we have invested. This is what ROE represents. However, it is expected to continue increasing until 2025, reaching around 99 or 100. Then, it will change.

In 2026, there will be a significant downturn; it will decline here and also decline significantly elsewhere. This means that there will be a reduction in terms of generating money relative to my own capital, and there hasn’t been much history of this happening. So, 2026 will mark a turning point. If we consider this as the moment of decline, it seems that we are currently about six months ahead of that point, indicating that it might happen around the middle of the year. 

Now, let’s take a look at free cash flow. This refers to the money that remains after all my expenses have been accounted for. Currently, after capital expenditures are deducted, we need to see how much pure cash is left. In 2024, it was at 600%, but in 2025, it drops significantly to 122%. Even though it’s still a three-digit number, by 2026, it is projected to be only 37%, which represents a considerable decrease. If this scenario unfolds, it would be quite significant.

지금 출이 줄어들고 있고, EPS도 줄어들었습니다. 현재 영업 활동에서 본 돈도 줄어들고 있는 상황입니다. 이러한 가운데 어쩔 수 없이 줄어드는 순환이 일어나고 있습니다. 그래서 이 시점이 우리가 보는 상투 시점이 되지 않겠는가 생각합니다. 다음으로 EPS 전망치를 살펴보겠습니다. 리비전의 전망과 컨센서스, 그리고 트렌드가 어떻게 되고 있는지 보겠습니다. 즉, 2025년부터 시작해서 2030년까지의 EPS 변화율에 대해 말씀드리겠습니다. 2023년 전망을 보면, 2025년에도 조금씩 올라갈 것이라고 생각했습니다. 2024년도 역시 계속해서 올라갈 것이라고 봅니다.

In 2020, 2029, and 2030, all these EPS estimates are expected to continue rising and improving. However, as we look at 2024, it appears that there will be a slight decline starting around that time. This decline is anticipated to occur in 2030, where EPS estimates may begin to decrease. Similarly, we expect a decline in 2029 as well. Until 2028, it seems that we won't see much of a decline. This is the outlook that has been presented. On the other hand, until 2027, there is a trend of gradual improvement in the estimates, indicating that 2025 looks promising, as does 2026. Up until about three years from now, EPS estimates are likely to continue improving slightly. This is the current consensus. Even considering both long-term and short-term perspectives, if things improve by 2027, then by the end of 2025, we should see an impact on stock prices.

Currently, we might be at a peak. In that sense, we can understand the situation. Now, let's take a look at the current valuations. This is TR6, which you can consider. Excluding Tesla, as it is always high, Nvidia's P/E ratio is currently around 31 times. This white line indicates that it has entered the 30 times range. If you look at Microsoft, it is also around 31 times, and for others, it is around 30 times based on the forward-looking estimates. Meta is similarly at a 22 times P/E ratio, while Google and Amazon are different; Amazon is the highest at 33 times, and Google is lower at 19 times. Given this context, Nvidia's P/E ratio being around 30 times suggests that its current stock price is somewhat in a desirable price range in terms of valuation. This assessment indicates that it is neither overly high nor undervalued, but rather at an appropriate level.

Valuation is here, and we can understand it like this. Next, we have the EV (Enterprise Value) divided by operating profit. If we look at this, for Nvidia, it is at 26 times; for Microsoft, it is 20 times; for Google, it is 11 times, and Google is always lower. Then for Amazon, it is 13 times, and for Apple, it is 23 times, while Meta is at 12 times. Given these figures, at some point, Nvidia will align more closely with other companies. Of course, this does not mean it is undervalued. However, it is not overvalued at the moment; it is at a reasonable valuation. Therefore, when we consider the Magnificent Six—Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—we look at valuation, growth potential, and profitability.

Next, let's compare and analyze the momentum and EPS forecasts for the six companies. In terms of valuation, most of them are at a high level. The P/E ratio is likely to remain high because many people are buying, which continues to drive up stock prices. However, the reason the P/E ratio is maintained at around 30 is that profits continue to follow suit. 

Now, regarding growth potential, Apple currently has the weakest growth, followed by Google, Microsoft, and Meta, while Amazon shows good growth. The best growth potential is with NVIDIA, which has the highest growth rate. If we look at NVIDIA's valuation through the P/E ratio, we can see that it is calculated by dividing the P/E ratio by the profit growth rate over the past five years. Therefore, the higher the growth rate, the better it is considered.

Overall, a lower value is preferable. In the case of Nvidia, it is currently at 1.049, while Apple is at 3.86, which is quite high. This indicates a lack of growth potential. Next, Google is at 1.19, and then Meta is at 1.35. Nevertheless, being close to 1 suggests that there is significant growth potential. This is true for Nvidia as well, which is currently showing an A+ in growth potential. Profitability is always consistent, so you can consider that profitability and valuation are generally the same. Currently, the Magnificent 6 are all receiving A+ ratings in terms of momentum, especially Nvidia. As for the others, there are no A+ ratings, so factors like momentum and growth potential are noteworthy.

상당히 좋은 모습에 있다. EPS 리비전을 거의 다 비다 이렇게 보시면 되겠죠. 메타고 그렇기 때문에 중요한 것은 성장성이 지금 이제 받쳐주고 있기 때문에 더욱더 많이 주가는 일단은 상승할 가능성이 많이 있다. 자, 요런 식으로 말씀을 드립니다. 영상을 끝까지 시청해 주셔서 감사합니다. 도움이 되셨다면 구독과 좋아요 부탁드립니다. 감사합니다.

엔비디아(nvda)언제가 피크를 찍고 내려오는지 데이터를 통해서 알아보자.

 # 미국 현지투자자가 30년 투자 기간동안 수없이 많은 시행착오를 통해 얻은 실전투자 매매 노하우를 솔직하게 공유하겠습니다

(유튜버 소개)
    MBA(skku), 자문사 운용역, 창투사 심사역,주식 및 외환,선물 투자 경력 30 년 차.

(유의 사항)
    본 영상은 투자권유 영상이 아닙니다.단지 참고 사항일 뿐입니다.투자의 최종 판단과 결정은 
    투자자 분께 있습니다.모든 분들의 성공 투자를 간절히 기원합니다.

(연락처 공개)
    khcapitalmg@gmail.com

