AI 세대가 기술 및 시장에 미치는 영향

### Ark Invest의 캐시 우드: 엔비디아의 밝은 미래와 차세대 AI가 경제에 미치는 영향
* 📈 캐시 우드는 이미 크게 상승한 엔비디아의 주가는 **향후 제품 개발과 의료 및 자동차 등 다양한 분야의 GPU 칩 채택 증가**로 인해 여전히 상승할 여지가 있다고 생각합니다.
* 🧠 우드는 혁신, 비용 절감, 생산성 향상 측면에서 경제의 모든 부문에 걸쳐 가치를 가져올 것으로 기대되는 **제다이 AI가 아직 시장에 완전히 정착되지 않았다**고 생각합니다.
* 💰 우드는 올해가 진행됨에 따라 시장 참여가 확대되고 수익 성장이 가속화되어 **기술주에 대한 밸류에이션이 더욱 매력적으로 변할 것**으로 예상합니다.
* 🔒 우드는 은행들이 대출을 줄이고 그 공백을 메우기 위해 **유명 신용 기관들이 뛰어들면서 민간 신용, 특히 자산 담보 대출 전략**이 흥미로운 투자 기회가 될 것으로 보고 있습니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국 대선이 기술 부문에 미칠 영향에 대해 우드는 **어느 후보도 기술에 반대하지 않으며, 어느 후보가 당선되더라도 칩스 법과 같은 주요 이니셔티브가 철회될 가능성은 낮다**고 믿습니다.
* 🔮 "여기에는 **진정한 세속적 트렌드**"가 있습니다.

기술 부문은 여전히 강세를 보이고 있으며 미국 대선의 영향을 크게 받지 않아 상당한 경쟁 우위와 지속적인 지출이 예상됩니다.

Nancy, you're such a voice for us when
it comes to artificial intelligence, when it's hype or reality.
And I'm interested as to whether you think the second half will bode well if
you're long some of these names like in video and the chip stocks.
Well, look, trees don't grow to the sky, so we need to recognise that these
stocks have run a lot already. Having said that, you know, Nvidia has
got a lot of its sleeve in terms of new product development, right?
We've got Blackwell coming on in 2025. We've got Rubin thereafter.
And so there's quite a lot of product development in video.
Does enjoy a competitive moat in both software and hardware.
And I think we're just beginning of the purchase of these these GPU chips from
governments and other sectors like health care, the automotive sector.
So look, at the end of the day, when a stock has risen 150%, there can always
be a pullback.

But I would say we're still pretty early innings here on the Nvidia story, and that's we've done a lot on the show of late about how difficult it is, particularly for the sell side, to forecast top-line growth. You talked about Blackwell coming online. You're in the camp of people that says Gen AI is going to change everything, but it's not yet priced in. Which sectors is it not yet priced in full? Where's that not yet being reflected? Well, I think given what we've seen in the first quarter and the second quarter, in particular, the United States, the second quarter all led by the Magnificent Five, so to speak, you know, Apple and Tesla obviously lagged a bit, but it was tech, tech, and tech. And so I would say that Jenn-air has been priced in to a certain extent to those stocks. They certainly are recognized as beneficiaries. But I think the interesting thing is, you know, Jedi AI is value-added across

every sector of the economy, or at least
that's what we think. And therefore, looking ahead, we think
Jedi and its implications for innovation, cost savings, productivity,
improvements in other parts of the economy is not yet priced in.
And in any event, our view is that earnings growth will broaden and deepen
as the year progresses. It's still about tech in the second
quarter, by the way, but as the year progresses and we think that will lead
to a broadening in market participation. So actually many of our managers
remember, were open architecture at all time and have been reducing technology
to the benefit to other sectors of the economy that will, over time benefit
from churn. But also we think we'll see an
acceleration in earnings growth as the year progresses and frankly, trade on a
more attractive valuation, really important when it comes to publicly
traded equities. Not see, but what's so great about use,
we can go across asset as well and to

private assets and to nonpublic companies. It's interesting. We recently had Yammer crossing Capital Advisors head on recently who've done a partnership with LGT Diamond to look at, well, private companies from an equity perspective, but you're looking at it from a debt perspective as well. Where should one be allocating into technology or more broadly? So in technology and more broadly, let's just take private credit by way of example. We think private credit is super interesting because there's a retrenchment happening on the part of the banks. Now, you all saw the stress test last week. Banks need more capital. Basel three will be punitive in terms of ongoing capital requirements. There's a mark to market pressures on bank balance sheets and, of course, small to medium sized banks. Commercial banks that have very high exposure to the commercial real estate sector have been withdrawing from lending, not to mention funding costs going up. Okay, so what's happening here?

Banks are retrenching from lending, but marquee credit names are coming in and filling the void. We initially invested in what I call private lending direct lending strategies. More recently, we're evolving and moving into what I call asset-backed lending strategies. Again, these are kind of almost investment grade or in another name, investment-grade senior secured high up in the capital structure. And direct lending is about a 2% premium to high yield, whereas asset-backed lending is about a 4% premium to high yield. And by the way, these are being offered to, well, channels in sort of semi-liquid form. So it's not hugely illiquid and that's important as well. Nancy, how is a presidential election in the United States going to impact the technology sector? Wow. Well, the presidential election in the United States got rather entertaining last Thursday in a sort of cringe way. Dare I say, you know, we've got a long

way to go here before we know whether either candidate or obviously if there's a replacement for Biden remains to be seen. But, look, I think tech companies remain strong. Neither candidate is anti-tech. They both recognize this is a significant competitive advantage to the United States. I don't see IRA or the CHIPS Act being rolled back under either candidate. Clearly not. If President Biden wins. And these are all important supports for the tech sector, that in addition to the fact that these technology companies, you know, are spending in huge amounts on generally $200 billion, the fourth largest tech companies, of course, they are CapEx is Nvidia's revenue. And so they we think that continues irrespective of who wins the election. But this is a sector that's not really impacted by the election. There's a real secular trend here.

AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin: Nvidia Enjoying Competitive Moat

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AI 및 칩 주식에서 엔비디아의 미래

엔비디아의 주가는 크게 상승했지만, 향후 제품 개발과 다양한 분야의 GPU 칩 수요 증가로 인해 여전히 성장 잠재력이 있습니다.

Gen AI의 영향은 기술주에 부분적으로 반영되었지만, 특히 미국에서 여전히 성장 잠재력이 있습니다.

제다이 AI의 가치는 특정 부문에서 완전히 반영되지 않았으며, 이는 엔비디아 및 기타 칩 주식에 대한 추가 잠재력을 나타냅니다.

제디가 혁신과 수익 성장에 미치는 영향

제디는 경제의 다양한 부문에서 혁신, 비용 절감, 생산성 향상에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

기술 중심의 성장에서 보다 광범위한 시장 참여로 전환하면서 올해 내내 수익 성장이 확대되고 강화될 것으로 예상됩니다.

특히 자본 요구 사항 증가와 시장 압력으로 인한 은행 부문의 위축으로 대출이 위축되면서 민간 신용에 대한 관심이 높아질 것으로 보입니다.

개인 대출에서 자산 담보 대출로의 전환

은행들이 대출을 줄이고 있는 반면, 주요 신용 기관들이 그 공백을 메우기 위해 뛰어들고 있습니다.

개인 대출에서 자산 담보 대출 전략으로 전환하고 있으며, 4%의 프리미엄을 얹어 고수익을 제공하고 있습니다.

미국 대선이 기술 부문에 미칠 영향에 대해서도 논의되고 있으며, 최근의 상황은 흥미진진하다고 묘사되고 있습니다.

선거 결과에 대한 기술 부문의 회복 탄력성

두 후보 모두 국가 경쟁력에 있어 기술 기업의 중요성을 인식하고 있기 때문에 선거 결과와 관계없이 기술 기업은 강세를 유지할 것으로 보입니다.

누가 대통령에 당선되든 관계없이 기술 부문에 중요한 지원을 제공하는 IRA와 CHIPS 법은 철회되지 않을 것으로 예상됩니다.

기술 부문은 실제 세속적인 추세와 상당한 투자에 의해 주도되고 있으며, 선거의 영향을 크게 받지 않는 회복력을 가지고 있습니다.