미국 원자력 발전의 미래

### 미국 에너지 시장 동향과 원자력의 미래
* 💡 인공지능으로 인해 전력 수요가 증가하고 있고, 발전 비용과 산업 변화를 고려할 때 **재생 에너지는 필수 불가결한 요소**가 되고 있습니다.
* 🌞 올해와 내년에 미국 발전소의 가장 큰 성장은 **유틸리티 규모의 태양광 발전**이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.
* ☢ 원자력 발전의 필요성은 분명하지만 **단기간에 신규 건설**을 달성하기는 어렵습니다.
* 📈 기존 원전의 수명을 연장하는 데 초점을 맞추고 있어 **핵폐기물 건식 저장고에 대한 수요가 크게 증가**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🎯 원자력 발전소의 수명을 연장하는 것은 비용 효율적인 옵션으로 간주되며, 미국은 **추가 보조금 정책**을 도입하고 **소형 모듈형 원자로(SMR)를 상용화**하여 신규 건설을 촉진할 필요가 있습니다.
* 💰 작년 9월에 원자력 전기 생산에 대한 세금 공제 제도가 도입되었으며, 건설 비용 절감과 접근성 향상을 위해서는 **SMR의 상용화**가 필수적입니다.
* 🧊 빌 게이츠가 설립한 회사 TerraPower는 **액체 나트륨을 냉각제로 사용하는 SMR**을 개발 중이며, 이는 냉각 효율을 개선하고 부지 선택에 더 많은 유연성을 제공할 것으로 기대됩니다.
* 🌍 미국은 인구 밀도가 낮아 **원자력 발전소 건설에 유리**하며, 변화하는 에너지 시장에서 안정적인 투자 아이디어를 찾는 것이 중요합니다.

AI로 인한 전력 수요 증가로 인해 미국에서는 재생 에너지, 특히 유틸리티 규모의 태양광 발전으로 전환해야 합니다.

Due to AI, the demand for electricity is increasing. It is true that power inflow power plants are essential for journalists and companies. Even if you dislike renewable energy, excluding it is difficult when considering the change in power generation costs and industries. This year and next year, the largest growth in the U.S. power plants is expected to be in utility-scale solar power. The necessity of nuclear power is obvious, but it cannot be achieved in the short term. It seems like the solar sector has been updated, and now, what will be the medium to long-term power mix in the U.S.? I have brought the capture directly from the materials of Consolidation Energy, the largest nuclear power operator in the U.S. If you look at this recent material from Consolidation Energy, you can see that wind power generation will increase in the U.S. in the future, and solar power generation will also increase. This industrial trend cannot be changed anyway.

The energy market in the United States is privatized, so the president alone cannot change it. Therefore, the increase in wind and solar power is almost guaranteed, and in the case of gas, the share of companies is expected to decrease. Recently, looking at trends like the Mississippi orders, I think it will at least maintain the current level. Coal is not the answer, so a decrease is appropriate. The main business of this company is nuclear power. Even though it is a nuclear power company, I heard that the proportion of nuclear power is just maintained. Maintaining the proportion means that it is increasing, but new constructions are not frequent, mostly focusing on extending the lifespan of aging nuclear power plants. It seems that the focus is on extending the lifespan of existing nuclear power plants rather than new constructions. The lifespan of nuclear power plants seems to be extended by everyone in the industry. The issue is that there are not many new constructions yet. In the previous part that I briefly didn't mention, you see that nuclear power is in red. If you look at it, nuclear power is being phased out.

There have been many times in the past, and in the same case this year, the 1.1g reactor will be installed. Due to the high construction costs, nuclear power new construction is stagnant even in the United States. Therefore, there is a need to boost this. If you look at the current situation of the U.S. nuclear power industry, in 2014, a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration came out. Let's take a look at 2015. Most of the nuclear power plants in the U.S. had a lifespan of 30 to 40 years as of 2015. Assuming most of them extend their lifespan, by 2030, they will be around 40 to 60 years old. Typically, nuclear power plants are designed to last about 40 years, but in reality, with some part replacements and renovations, they can run for another 40 years. Therefore, ultimately, the U.S. must extend their lifespan without fail.

In the process of extending the lifespan, various parts need to be replaced, and one thing to pay attention to is the need to build a dry cask storage. Because even though the nuclear power plant itself has its own nuclear waste storage, it will be full after 40 years. So, we need to build a dry cask storage elsewhere and transfer the waste. We can't store nuclear waste in just any container, that's why we need specialized containers called casks for post-use disposal. As the lifespan extension projects increase, the demand for casks will also increase significantly. Therefore, many companies in Korea are developing technology related to these casks, and some are collaborating with European or American companies for technology development. However, in a few years, the cask market may become saturated. This is the current situation. So, rather than discussing whether to have nuclear power plants or not, it is more practical.

The story is not just about building a nuclear power plant, but it seems like there will definitely be extensions. When extending, there are inevitably additional materials that need to be used, and the name of that is called Quest. Compared to building a new nuclear power plant, it is said that the cost per unit of electricity generation when extending the lifespan of an old nuclear power plant is only about 50%. This is because only a few parts need to be changed. Therefore, extending the lifespan is almost a necessary option that advanced countries must adopt. That's how it is viewed. However, not every country can easily extend the lifespan. The chart you are looking at shows the population density of major countries. In the case of South Korea, the population density per square kilometer is 530. In fact, no matter how far you drive in South Korea, after just 30 minutes, you can see where people live. But in the United States, for example, you can drive all day and still not see people for miles.

There are many invisible places, so the population density in the United States is 36, in Ukraine 70, and in France 100. These countries are all nuclear power countries, so it's relatively easier to build nuclear power plants in empty places like this. Therefore, it is advantageous for extending life expectancy. However, countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which have limited land, face difficulties in building nuclear power plants. Despite the challenges, there is a necessity to continuously build nuclear power plants for life extension. Of course, there will naturally be opposition such as Why here, why not in other neighborhoods? It's not easy to build nuclear power plants, but in the case of the United States, there are no people to oppose it, so they just build it in the federal government's land without opposition. That's why there's a slight difference in this aspect. Well, in the U.S., there is no shortage of land.

Well, that's great to have. It's a bit like a gangster, so ultimately, it's okay to extend lifespan, but that's not enough. Ultimately, what's needed to promote the construction of new nuclear power plants is, in my opinion, in order to promote the construction of nuclear power plants in the U.S., two things are needed. First, there should be additional subsidy policies, and second, the commercialization of SMRs, small modular reactors, is necessary. Let me talk a little about additional subsidy policies. In fact, not many people know that a tax deduction for atomic energy production was introduced in the IRA last September 23rd. So, what's the content? From 2024 to three years, a tax deduction of up to $15 per megawatt-hour of nuclear electricity production will be provided. This will improve the economics of existing nuclear power plants, so most nuclear power plants will extend their lifespan as much as possible.

Policy that promotes extending lifespan is okay, but it's until 2032. However, if we wait for nuclear power plant construction, it will take more than 32 years. It's not a policy that can accelerate new nuclear power plant construction. So, what do we ultimately need? We need to deduct investment tax, for example, if the cost of nuclear power plant construction is 10 trillion won, we will deduct 30% of the investment tax, which is 3 trillion won. Currently, the system of tax deductions applied to solar power and offshore wind power is well established, and I think similar tax deduction systems should be introduced. Therefore, I believe that whether it's the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, there is a high possibility that such tax deduction systems will be introduced, as they are already talking about providing loans and tripling nuclear power plants by 2050. Thus, ultimately, nuclear power plants will also benefit from such tax deductions.

New regulations will be introduced, and that timing is considered crucial now. Secondly, it's technological development. In the case of large nuclear power plants, they are so expensive and take over ten years to build, making them unaffordable. Also, the costs are too high. However, with SMRs, breaking down a 1GW nuclear power plant into modules inevitably leads to higher generation costs. But the crucial point is that since the construction costs of a single unit are low, accessibility improves. Next to AI data centers, it may be challenging to build large power plants, but small nuclear power plants can be built sufficiently. Therefore, the commercialization of small nuclear power plants is crucial. In fact, in the SMR market, NuScale Power from the United States was considered the most advanced. However, the company's first project was abandoned in September 2023. As a result, with the expected generation costs continuously rising, customers eventually withdrew their support, leading to the first.

The first project fell through, so SMR sentiment has deteriorated a bit. Recently, Microsoft's founder Bill Gates has established a new company called TerraPower. This company actually started the construction of an SMR in June this year. The goal is to complete TerraPower's SMR by 2030. What's unique is that conventional nuclear power plants use water as a coolant, but here they use liquid sodium. It is expected that using liquid sodium will greatly improve the cooling efficiency. The reason why the change in cooling method is important is that in recent years, you may have heard a lot of news about severe droughts in Europe and the United States. In particular, in France, if you search for the France Nuclear Map on Google, you will find that about 70% of French nuclear power plants are located or used along inland rivers. France also faces shortages every summer.

These days, there is a lot of talk about the shortage of cooling water, so news often comes out that the operating rate of French nuclear power plants decreases every summer. Nuclear power plants need to be installed where there is plenty of cooling water, but if they are only located by the sea, it is difficult to transmit electricity to inland areas. This is often mentioned. So, ultimately, the cooling method is important. If the cooling efficiency improves by using liquid sodium, the site conditions become more flexible. That's why I consider TerraPower's SMR important. However, since it is expected to be completed by 2030, it will take a few years to operate and verify stability before it starts spreading globally. So, it will take some time, unfortunately. Nuclear power is an essential industry, but it will inevitably take some time to develop. In France, due to the shortage of water, near the river...

Because of the drought, there is no water, so the nuclear power plant cannot cool down and cannot operate. These kinds of problems arise. Now, we are in an era where water is scarce. Water scarcity is often mentioned due to the climate. I'm curious about this, so how does using liquid sodium work? Yes, so, I'm not from the engineering field, so I don't know the details technically, but it's said that the boiling point of liquid sodium is much higher than that of water. The vaporization level is much higher, so it requires a higher temperature to heat it. It is said to be much more efficient in providing heat. Therefore, using liquid sodium for cooling is more efficient than using water as a coolant. So, relatively, the operating environment becomes more comfortable. You don't have to worry about it like near the beach or a river, right? I see. TerraPower utilizes this method now.

Yes, that's correct. Anyway, suddenly I remember my science class. Back in the days, in science class, I remember sodium, how many electrons it had, the periodic table, and those kinds of thoughts. Using water is a much more efficient way than using water to generate electricity. Anyway, what you mentioned is that in the U.S., in order for a new nuclear power plant to start operating, to begin construction, should they provide more subsidies or should the technology advance? From the perspective of technological advancement, there are still various issues with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and although there are expectations for TerraPower, we need to observe it more closely. Yes, that's right. Let's summarize the content we have discussed so far. Trump's online podcast, my opinions on that, if I may say, due to AI, the electricity price will increase.

Journalists from power plant companies are correct as agents, and since they emphasize the importance of gas, it is expected that gas power generation will increase in the United States in the future. As new orders are already increasing, I also believe that it will continue to rise. Gas is the most abundant energy source, and if carbon capture is done, there is no reason not to use clean energy, right? So, it is true that gas will increase. You may dislike renewable energy, but considering the unit cost of power generation and the changes in the industry, excluding renewable energy is difficult. This year and next year, the largest growth in the U.S. power plants is expected to be in utility-scale solar power. The necessity of nuclear power is obvious, but the problem is that additional systems like tax deductions are needed to promote new construction, or small modular reactors (SMRs) need to be commercialized. It seems that both of these cannot be achieved in the short term, so we need to take a longer breath.

What needs to be taken away is the nuclear part. Let me explain. After attending Team Leader Kim Sik's seminar, I will now organize my thoughts and share them. First of all, solar power is starting to irritate me a bit because of what Trump is saying, and it may continue to be annoying in the future, but there is no alternative. The first thing that comes to mind is that. Secondly, the detailed discussion on gas was very helpful to me. So, I think it would be good for you to change your perception of gas when investing and also to look for gas-related media companies as a point of change. Additionally, regarding nuclear power, establishing new nuclear power plants receives subsidies or faces technical issues, but it is essential to extend the life of aging nuclear power plants.

Searching again is also a way to find discounts. Cast mentioned this. Through the discussion of Trump, he provided us with very important clues for finding investment ideas. I appreciate that. As Trump's story continues to be talked about, it may become more annoying and frustrating. However, we need to focus here. Only then can we invest without being shaken. Thank you to Kim Hyesuk's team for updating us in a hurry after watching the debate between Trump and Biden. We will greet you in the next session. Thank you.

원전에 힘 빡주는 미국! 수혜받는 곳은 어디일까?⎮삼성액티브자산운용 김효식 팀장

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이효석아카데미

미국의 전력 수요가 증가하면서 유틸리티 규모의 태양광 발전과 풍력 발전이 크게 성장하고 있습니다.

원자력 산업은 신규 건설보다는 기존 발전소의 수명을 연장하는 데 주력하고 있으며, 핵폐기물을 저장할 건식 캐스크 저장소를 건설해야 할 필요성이 대두되고 있습니다.

이로 인해 캐스크 기술 시장이 성장하고 있지만 가까운 시일 내에 포화 상태가 될 수 있습니다.

노후 원전의 수명을 연장하는 것은 특히 미국, 우크라이나, 프랑스와 같이 인구 밀도가 낮은 국가에서는 비용 효율적인 선택입니다.

그러나 한국, 일본, 대만과 같이 국토가 좁은 국가는 새로운 원자력 발전소를 건설하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

미국은 정부 부지에 반대 없이 신규 원전을 쉽게 건설할 수 있지만, 추가 건설을 촉진하기 위해서는 추가적인 보조금 정책과 소형 모듈형 원자로의 상용화가 필요한 것으로 보입니다.

최근 원전 전력 생산에 대한 세금 공제는 기존 원전의 경제성을 개선하고 수명 연장에 대한 인센티브를 제공할 것으로 기대됩니다.

원자력 발전소 건설 추진: 도전 과제와 솔루션

원자력 발전소 건설을 가속화하기 위해서는 투자 세금 공제가 필수적이며, 향후 태양광 및 해상 풍력과 유사한 세금 제도가 도입될 가능성이 높습니다.

소형 원자력 발전소, 특히 SMR의 상용화는 건설 비용이 낮고 접근성이 개선되어 필수적이며, 액체 나트륨을 냉각에 사용하는 TerraPower의 SMR 프로젝트는 이 분야에서 유망한 발전 가능성을 보여줍니다.

특히 현재 많은 원자력 발전소가 냉각을 위해 내륙 강에 의존하고 있는 유럽과 미국 같은 지역에서 물 부족에 대한 우려가 커지고 있기 때문에 냉각에 액체 나트륨을 사용하는 것은 매우 중요합니다.

원자력 발전소에서 테라파워의 SMR의 중요성

테라파워는 냉각에 액체 나트륨을 사용함으로써 효율성을 개선하고 발전소 위치 선정에 더 많은 유연성을 제공합니다.

이 방법을 완전히 가동하고 안정적으로 사용하기까지는 몇 년이 걸릴 것으로 예상되지만, 원자력 발전소가 직면한 물 부족 문제에 대한 해결책을 제시합니다.

테라파워와 같은 소형 모듈형 원자로(SMR)의 개발은 원자력 발전 기술의 발전에 매우 중요하지만, 아직 더 많은 관찰과 기술 발전이 필요합니다.

미국에서 가스 발전은 풍부한 자원과 탄소 포집을 통한 청정 에너지의 잠재력에 힘입어 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

유틸리티 규모의 태양광 발전은 잠재적인 어려움에도 불구하고 향후 2년 동안 가장 큰 성장세를 보일 것으로 예상됩니다.

가스 및 태양광 발전에 대한 논의가 계속되는 가운데 노후화된 원자력 발전소의 수명을 연장하고 투자 기회를 찾는 데 집중할 필요가 있습니다.