북한 김정은의 증가하는 위협

김정은은 긴장을 고조시키고 잠재적으로 한국 및 미국과의 전쟁을 일으키려는 대담한 행보를 보이고 있습니다.

### 김정은의 위협이 커지고 있다: 전쟁의 위험과 그의 새로운 동맹
* 🚀 김정은은 미사일 실험을 확대하고 있으며, 일부 전문가들은 그가 실제로 **전쟁**을 원할 수도 있다고 경고하고 있습니다.
* 🌏 김 위원장이 **국경과 한국에 대한 위협**에 집중하는 것은 그의 행동에 **위험한 변화**가 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 💣 김정은은 핵무기와 세계 최대 규모의 군대를 보유하고 있어 그의 위협이 **더 신빙성이 있습니다**.
* 🇰🇷 남북한 간의 긴장은 바다에서 세계에서 가장 군사화된 국경인 비무장지대**까지 이어져 있습니다.
* 🇷🇺 김 위원장은 러시아와의 새로운 동맹을 통해 **금지된 미사일 기술**을 포함한 군사적 협력을 제공받고 있습니다.
* 🚀 김정은은 2022년 이후 **전례 없는 수의 미사일 발사**를 실시했으며, **거의 모든 발사가 성공하는 것으로 보입니다**.
* ⚖ 비핵화와 제재 완화를 맞바꾸기 위한 김 위원장의 미국, 한국과의 회담이 하노이에서 결렬되면서 그는 **평화에 대한 희망을 포기**하게 되었습니다.
* 🔮 북한, 러시아, 중국이 서방에 대한 동맹을 강화하면서 상황은 더욱 복잡해지고 있으며, 김 위원장은 세계 지도자 중 최초로 신냉전**에 대해 언급하고 이를 수용한 인물 중 하나입니다.

Kim Jong Un is threatening the world... with endless missile tests. You might be thinking: what's new? We're used to North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un being presented either as a supervillain or laughed off in dictator-jokes (0.15). But now some North Korea watchers are sounding the alarm, saying Kim might ACTUALLY want a war. How big? When? Don't know. Kim seems to be sick of trying to make peace. And things are working out in his favor. These days Kim is very emboldened. That’s a threat, especially for South Korea. (0.40) Which is backed by the US. So is the frozen conflict between North Korea and South Korea heating back up? And is Kim more dangerous than ever? These days Kim Jong Un seems to be pretty into maps – and when dictators start focusing a lot on borders that's always a bit worrying. Here he is inspecting a model of the South Korean capital Seoul and warning that his country is

ready to completely annihilate his neighbor to the South - IF provoked. Whatever that means. And this is the border he particularly has his eye on. The disputed maritime border between North and South Korea, known as the Northern Limit Line, or NLL. Instead of just extending the land border out into the sea, look at how the boundary is drawn here, curving up over these islands. They have remained under de facto South Korean control. But North Korea claims these waters. Which is why it’s not surprising that they don’t appreciate US and South Korean navy drills here. In 2010, North Korea attacked one of the islands, killing several people there. Now North Korea has repeatedly fired artillery into the waters AROUND the islands as a threat. North Korea has been unhappy about this border for decades. Now Kim seems done with tolerating it: he called it illegal.

“It seems to me he wants that 
clash for some reason. He wants that to happen and he's preparing for it.” This is Robert Carlin. He has been 
working on North Korea for over 50 years, and has been there at least 30 times, 
including as a US intelligence officer. Carlin thinks Kim Jong Un's 
talk of illegal borders might only be the first step to wider military action. Another worrying development: Kim recently declared that South Korea 
is now the North's principal enemy. Before, peaceful reunification 
was the official goal. Kim was effectively saying South 
Korea is no longer part of the traditional core of the Korean people and 
the implication is therefore it's a target. And Kim has the military 
might to back up his rhetoric. He has nuclear weapons. And he's in charge 
of one of the largest armies in the world. The tensions between the two sides extend 
from the sea over onto the land. Into the

DMZ. It's the most militarized 
de-militarized zone in the world.  And it’s where the war between North and 
South Korea has been frozen for 70 years. And where the Korean peninsula is basically still   split along Cold War lines.
How did we get here? Well, at the end of World War 2, the Korean 
peninsula was liberated from Japanese occupation. The winners of the war, the Soviet 
Union and the United States, decided   that they would each occupy half of the peninsula.
They agreed on this latitude as the dividing line. In 1950, North Korean troops invaded 
the South — and the South pushed back.  It was a brutal war. At least two and 
a half million people were killed. The North was backed by the Soviet Union 
and later also by China – both communist   states. The South was backed 
by UN troops, led by the US.  And you’ll see – the Cold War 
superpowers never really went away.

In 1953, an armistice agreement was signed, 
freezing the front line of the war – roughly, back along the same line again.
It ended the fighting, and created the buffer zone 
we already saw, the DMZ. But it left many things unresolved, like the maritime border.
That wasn't in the agreement. The UN, led by the US, drew that later without 
actually asking North Korea's permission. And it wasn't a peace treaty, so the war between 
North and South Korea never officially ended. The same family that launched 
the war is still in charge now. The Kim family is currently the 
only communist dynasty (5.17). Kim Jong Un rules just like his 
father and grandfather before him: with a totalitarian cult of personality and 
an iron fist, using intimidation and violence. North Koreans don't have 
access to the outside world, leaving the country is illegal without permission. Then came the pandemic
North Korea had some of

the strictest border controls in the world. And Kim started building hundreds 
of kilometers of fencing and walls along North Korea's border with Russia and China. Like here: Satellite images show that a double 
fence pops up (6.01) after the pandemic shutdown. North Korea even introduced a “shoot-to-kill 
order along the Chinese border. So Kim has pretty much sealed off his 
country and locked in his people. But he is open for business with 
his authoritarian neighbors. North Korea shares a 1400 km-long border 
with China. Without its northern neighbor, the country wouldn't survive. Almost all of 
its very limited trade happens with China. Which brings us to Rason, a North Korean region 
right on the border with both China AND Russia. It's a Special Economic Zone - which 
means this is where the communist country has been letting a bit of 
capitalism happen since the 1990s. Now, something new is happening here. Just look at how close North Korea's

Tumangang station and Russia's Khasan station are. This satellite image from October 2023 analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows an UNPRECEDENTED number of railcars at the North Korean train station. Some of these railcars seem to end up in Russia. The crates are covered, so no one really knows what's inside. But the CSIS experts say it's likely North Korean munitions for Russia... Which is two years into its full-scale war against Ukraine. Ukraine says it has found North Korean artillery shells and missiles on the battlefield. The UN has confirmed the use of missiles. North Korea and Russia deny the claims. What is Kim Jong Un getting out of it? Well, reportedly a lot of money. And Putin may be giving Kim oil – and raw materials and parts to make more weapons, POTENTIALLY including banned missile technology. Some of this stuff has been hard for Kim to come by so far.

North Korea is under international sanctions for building and testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Oil deliveries, for example, violate those sanctions. We will prioritize the North Korea-Russia relationship and put it as the number one priority of our foreign policy from now on. I think these days Kim is very emboldened. Jenny Town is the director of a program devoted to North Korea analysis at the Stimson Center think tank. She has been working on North Korea for almost 20 years. This is a big win for Kim Jong-Un. He bet on Putin. He bet on the war. And so far, that bet now is paying off for him. This Russian-made luxury limousine is an example of that. It was a fancy gift from Putin to Kim on his recent trip to Russia. Luxury items are also sanctioned. So, this gift is Putin showing how little he cares about all that.

Because both Kim and Putin are under sanctions, cheers to a growing friendship. The two also share a passion for showing off their weapons, and it's more than just showing off. Now North Korea's getting field experience for their missiles. There's been evidence of them in the Ukrainian battlefields, and if they improve the quality of it, it could be a cheap choice for others in the future. What this means: Improved North Korean weapons on the illegal market. Potential buyers include Syria and Iran. On his trip to Russia, Kim Jong Un also toured a spaceport in the Far East of the country. South Korean intelligence has said it probably was Russian help that enabled North Korea to launch its first spy satellite into orbit. Right now, what North Korea gets from Russia is a level of military cooperation it has not had since the Cold War, since the Soviet Union, right? That is a huge, huge win for Kim Jong Un.

It might also be a win for Kim’s nuclear weapons, even though no one knows for sure if Russia is helping him develop them. What we do know is that Kim has carried out an unprecedented number of missile launches since 2022. People call them provocations, as if they're just intended to get under our skin. They're not. They're testing new systems. And astoundingly, almost all of them seem to work. These missile launches used to have a different purpose. The idea that they were always so dangerous was mistaken. The North Koreans did not want to go to war before. The whole purpose of their policy was to engage the Americans, not to go to war with them. In other words, weapons testing was kind of PART of their diplomatic policy. A way to make sure South Korea — and more importantly, its superpower backer, the US — kept talking to them.

That takes us back to the DMZ. It looked pretty good when these meetings 
were happening there a few years ago. South Korean President Moon Yae-in and Kim Jong Un 
were taking steps to try and finally end the war. Because remember: The two Koreas 
never officially made peace. And US President Donald Trump 
made a surprise appearance. He also came to visit the DMZ. And was actually 
the first US president EVER to set 
foot into North Korean territory. Many didn’t take the meetings between 
the two seriously. But actually... There were clear signs that Kim Jong 
Un really was willing to do something on his nuclear weapons program. So experts say: Kim was willing to give 
up a lot in return for sanctions relief. But at their summit in Hanoi the talks collapsed. Hanoi was a terrific failure. A personal 
failure for Kim Jong Un. And from that point on, he began thinking how he was 
going to change the policy.

They don't believe they can get anything from the US. I think they've given up right now, the idea that sanctions will be lifted or could be lifted if they just did the right thing, right. Kim seems to have abandoned the hope for peace. And all this isn’t happening in a vacuum. We see China, Russia, and North Korea working more closely together. And Iran is in the mix as well. You know, Kim Jong Un was one of the first world leaders to talk about and embrace the idea of a new Cold War. They are politically aligned with, you know, Russia and China against the West. Kim's allies Russia and China are back to thinking about spheres of influence and territorial ambitions. Russia is trying to take over Ukraine, and China is eyeing Taiwan. That’s the context for Kim’s talk about the maritime border. It could just be rhetoric or he could be planning to take over one

of these little islands.
So will he start a war? This could be a long fuse and a long-term 
plan. While he prepares his own people, while he gathers together the equipment 
he needs, while he convinces his allies that they need to support him.
I don't know where he thinks he is in this, and therefore where how 
close he is to pulling the trigger. So there's definitely a reason for concern and 
a reason why we should be trying to rebuild diplomacy with the North Koreans in order to (...) 
pull them back into the international community. As we've seen – at the moment, Kim 
doesn’t really seem interested in that. Instead, he's started looking 
elsewhere for support. So is that enough to give him what he wants?
Or does he have more dangerous options?

Why North Korea wants a war (sooner than you think) | Mapped Out

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북한의 지도자 김정은은 긴장을 고조시키고 있으며 특히 한국을 겨냥해 전쟁에 대한 열망을 드러내고 있습니다.

김 위원장이 해상 국경에 집중하고 한국을 북한의 주적으로 선언하면서 군사 행동 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

핵무기와 대규모 군대를 지휘하고 있는 김정은의 공격적인 수사와 행동은 역내 분쟁의 위협을 고조시키고 있습니다.

비무장지대: 70년 동안 얼어붙은 분쟁: 비무장지대

비무장지대는 70년 동안 냉전선을 따라 한반도를 분단시킨 가장 군사적으로 엄격하게 통제된 국경입니다.

제2차 세계대전 이후 소련과 미국이 한반도를 분단하면서 시작된 갈등은 잔혹한 전쟁과 해결되지 않은 평화로 이어졌습니다.

이후 김정은의 전체주의 정권은 북한을 봉쇄하는 동시에 중국과 중요한 경제 관계를 유지하고 있습니다.

북한 두만강 역의 전례 없는 수의 철도 차량이 우크라이나와의 전쟁으로 인해 러시아로 군수품을 수송하고 있을 가능성이 있습니다.

김정은은 국제 제재를 위반하면서까지 이 관계를 통해 많은 돈을 벌고 무기 생산에 필요한 석유와 원자재를 공급받고 있는 것으로 알려졌습니다.

북한과 러시아 간의 파트너십이 강화되면서 김정은은 미사일 개선을 위한 군사 협력과 현장 경험을 얻고 있으며, 불법 시장에서 개량된 북한 무기의 공급이 확대될 가능성이 있습니다.

김정은은 2022년 이후 전례 없이 많은 미사일 발사를 성공시켰는데, 이는 도발로 보이지만 실제로는 새로운 시스템을 시험하는 과정의 일부입니다.

이러한 발사는 제재 완화를 위해 미국과 한국을 협상에 끌어들이기 위한 북한의 외교 정책의 일환이었으며, 김 위원장은 제재 완화를 위해 기꺼이 양보할 의향이 있었습니다.

하노이 정상회담의 실패로 김 위원장은 자신의 접근 방식을 재고하기 시작하면서 정책의 변화를 가져왔습니다.

김정은은 미국의 제재 해제에 대한 희망을 포기하고 중국, 러시아, 이란과의 긴밀한 동맹으로 돌아서면서 신냉전적 사고방식으로의 전환을 예고하고 있습니다.

김정은 정권이 동맹국의 지원을 받아 잠재적 분쟁에 대비할 가능성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

이러한 상황은 북한을 국제사회로 복귀시키고 추가 확전을 막기 위한 외교에 다시 초점을 맞출 것을 요구합니다.