부동산 시장 분석: 시장 회복 조짐과 향후 전망

농장은 규제가 완화되면서 부동산 시장이 크게 활성화될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

### 농장의 부동산 시장 분석 및 전망
* 🏠 농장은 현재 부동산 시장이 **다주택자에 대한 규제가 없어 투자에 유리**하다고 보고 있습니다.
* 📅 그는 정기 강연 등록의 중요성을 강조하며 **등록 마감일이 다가오고 있다**고 언급합니다.
* 💸 농장의 강의 프로젝트는 **시간, 에너지, 자원 측면에서 상당한 투자**가 필요하지만 **비용 대비 효율이 높다**고 판단했습니다.
* 📈 그는 이제 많은 사람들이 임대 대신 구매를 선택하고 있기 때문에 **시장이 계속 개선될 것**으로 예측합니다.
* 📉 농장은 현재 시장이 투자자가 아닌 부동산 투기 세력에 의해 주도되고 있기 때문에 **일시적인 반등에 그칠 가능성이 낮다**고 주장합니다.
* 📉 그는 정부가 시장을 활성화하고 신규 주택 공급을 늘리기 위해 **규제를 완화**해야 한다고 제안합니다.
* 🏗 ️ 농장은 **신규 주택 공급 부족**이 앞으로 심각한 문제가 될 것이라고 경고합니다.
* 📆 그는 앞으로 몇 달 동안 **상당한 시장 증가에 대한 압박**이 심화될 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 현장에서 지속적으로 업데이트를 제공할 계획입니다.

Hello, this is Nongjang. I'm greeting you from outside. It's the regular lecture period, and I'm enjoying it. Currently, if it weren't for regulations on multiple homeowners, it would be a great market to invest in, in my opinion. I prefer to take the lead rather than wait for the market to emerge and then take the results. So, there may be differences. For detailed information on regular lecture registration, please check the link below. There is a registration deadline. As you can see, I am setting the schedule for the lectures like this, so it may sound a bit strange. Unlike some people who just create lectures at home, I can do it all year round because I used to work in that field. But then it would be meaningless, and I wouldn't be helpful. Maybe in a few years, my shortcomings will be revealed.

If you can't improve your skills, it's because you can't improve your skills. When that happens, there are too many people who raise instructors, make lecture materials, delegate their work, and so on. I've seen a lot of that, so I really want to deliver lively lectures. Therefore, doing it alone won't work. The project I am currently working on involves working together with employees, which requires paying compensation for it. When you consider time, energy, and everything else, it is an investment-intensive lecture. I judge that the lecture has a very good cost-effectiveness. Reevaluation is necessary. Especially, isn't it beneficial to take Season 3 of this course? After all, don't I need to promote my lecture? That's how I think, and I am working hard. As I prepare for the lecture, I realize that it is different from what we usually think. So, in the current market, look, isn't what I'm saying correct?

I think my point is correct. I wanted to summarize this. First of all, a lot of discussions like this are happening now. You will hear a lot. It's a temporary rebound. From what I saw, it's not. Why? Because last year, for some people, it looked like a temporary rebound. Of course, last year, it went up until August or September, then suddenly dropped a bit around that time. It stopped, I mean. So, I couldn't predict that. Why? If you are living in a jeonse or monthly rent situation, then you should have at least 10 million won to buy a house. For those who don't have that, for newcomers, people who originally have a lot of money, or people with high salaries, or those who have the flexibility, they just bought a house. Last year, the good properties that led the market had almost no loans or didn't have any loans at all, and land transactions were approved.

Areas where people have their own spaces or money, those who have the leisure to move are showing such a trend, while those who do not are just pretending to be slightly okay. Hey, then isn't it a temporary rebound? No, absolutely not. You need to look at monthly rent and jeonse. How did you match the timing for the jeonse rebound? There is no demand for monthly rent. It's just about signing a contract for the place I live in. This is a zero-sum game. If you don't go this way, you have to go that way. If this side increases, the other side must decrease. If jeonse increases, monthly rent decreases. If monthly rent increases, jeonse can also decrease. There is also buying and selling involved, it goes back and forth. Tracking this can only be done on-site, and I can't do it alone. I know because I've tried, and I definitely can't do it. People who are good at it need to gather together and work with the same standards. It can't be exactly the same. Last year, the real estate market was activated.

There is a complex and the other side has a slightly improved complex, and there was a complex where the monthly rent kept increasing. In the end, the data of the sales market we wanted was coming out late, so it was moving to the other side. What about this time? Why do I insist on continuity? People are now facing maturity continuously. It's not a time when a lot is coming out yet. Now is the time to prepare for the next contract, not later. It starts from June, June, June. Originally, March, April, and May are times when people don't go house hunting much. March is a bit back and forth, especially in April. But look, there was a lot of trading volume. Why did I mention March? People didn't come out much, but they did. What I mean is, they haven't bought a house so far, they haven't made a decision. But among them, even if they come out, it shows in the market.

I know, even though the trading volume is not high, so this time, I sense a movement towards choosing to buy instead of rent or lease, unlike the relatively low volume compared to the past two years. Therefore, I am observing and following that movement. So, I expect that there will be more areas showing signs of improvement, and I believe there will be an increase. Also, one more thing, it is a temporary rebound. When it comes to a temporary rebound, those who are buying houses now become investors. Investors have their decisions set, either buy or not. So, if there are no urgent sales, they stop, or if they don't feel an upward trend, they stop. Because these people quickly feel a limit due to loans or tax regulations, they cannot raise the market by themselves. They cannot lift what is at the bottom. I'm not sure how much recovery there will be, but what you think.

Investors can't push the market up. If the price goes up as soon as they enter, they won't buy it. What is the purpose of these people? They buy cheap and sell expensive. It's not really working out. These people don't have that much money overflowing. In fact, that's why markets intervened by investors tend to temporarily rebound, and in many cases, quite often. I've seen a lot in the local market, but now there are no investors. Multiple homeowners cannot invest. Unless you have extraordinary skills or extraordinary stamina, the chances of failure are not very high. People who are currently buying houses are just ordinary people. They are different from what the media says. The land trade permission zone has been raised, so multiple homeowners cannot come out. Everyone knows this, so those who are moving the market now are real estate speculators. Knowing this, I think it's a structure that is unlikely to end with just a temporary rebound.

Over the past two years, many people haven't bought houses. Among those people, if even a small portion starts buying, creating a sense of continuity and a positive atmosphere in the market, the chances of choosing to buy instead of renting (monthly or long-term) are relatively high compared to the past two years. Also, many of the points I have argued have already been reflected in the market from March to April, May, and now until June. The market sentiment has changed. I believe that it's not just my baseless assumption; it has already been confirmed through data and media. Furthermore, I need to mention one more thing. Interest rates. I will talk about interest rates in more detail next time because it's not the most critical aspect in the market right now. Prices can only rise if interest rates go down. If interest rates do not decrease, market activation will be challenging. I think the part about interest rates will soon be revealed to be true. I believe that those who have been bearish for the past two years will be proven wrong soon.

Some people praised me for starting during the downturn. They are not following now. Their 2024 forecast was all wrong, and now they are changing everything. Because I asked my staff to monitor them, as they have a big influence on the market. Not a single one got it right, and they are changing everything. So, for those of you who like that, I dare you to search for the 2024 forecast made by a Harvard professor you admire so much. See how it turns out. I'm the one who got the 2024 forecast right. Saying this may not sit well with some people, but from my perspective, I believe that predicting the market with 100% accuracy is like mimicking God, it's unreasonable. When I look at it in percentages, if I got it right to a certain extent, then I consider it a good evaluation. In that sense, it was not a bad prediction. I am thinking.

So, today's video ends with a different topic. That is about tax regulations and requirements, and loosening loans. Many people have been saying that if the regulations on DSR, which is a measure of debt-to-income ratio, are not loosened, the market cannot survive. Lately, there has been a sudden shift in discussions, moving away from this topic. The theory was wrong, just like what the doomsayers used to say in the past, but now they are also changing their tune as the market moves. They might now be considering buying a house if the conditions are right. Because I used to believe in those words in the past, realistically, there are some parts that are hard to empathize with. But if you look at it now, there have been hardly any loosening of regulations compared to the previous government. The loan regulations remain the same, and property acquisition tax, comprehensive real estate tax, and transfer income tax are still high.

It's in a harmful state. Everything else is the same. But now, we are talking about easing regulations, talking about taxes, property taxes and such. However, many people may still think that even now, interest rates need to go down in order for them to go up. They say that taxes need to be eased. I have a different opinion on this. Even if interest rates don't go down, even if property acquisition taxes or property taxes increase, I think we should go on the path to the market. We need to ease up on the market. We need to do it moderately because people have been completely unable to buy houses. To what extent have they been unable to buy? Construction is not happening. It has become a world where houses are not being built. So, something needs to come out. Nothing is being sensed now. So, in my opinion, if the market wants to restart the supply when the supply is stopped, it needs to happen from the current state.

In the end, it seems inevitable to induce price increases in the real estate market. If the government has the determination, when looking at all those aspects, the government should actually start loosening regulations from now on. It has already been mentioned. However, in the current state, if the market itself is trying to recover or if a rebound is coming, then if regulations are lifted at that point, prices will rise even more. As I mentioned, it's too late now, there is no need to do it now. It must be done, but the reason for lifting regulations now is not to control the market, but to increase the supply of new housing. This is the worst-case scenario. This is a failure of the government's market control. It's not about creating a comfortable world where people can find suitable housing or contracts that suit them, that's already over. The timing has been missed. When I was a minister.

The timing has passed, and it's over. There is no new supply now. What's the problem with no new supply? I will talk about this next time. It's not a secret, but all houses get old. They may not be visible, but they do. And there is no one who wants to live in an old house. However, disappearing houses, although not visible to us, continue to appear. The new supply is currently slowing down. After a few years, this will become very noticeable. But no one is talking about it. So, we need to increase the new supply no matter what. In the future, from the government's perspective, redevelopment, reconstruction, and new town projects should be done well. Something needs to be done. But it's not going well now to do this well. Regulations need to be eased. From what I see, this movement can stimulate the market. Whether you look at it from this side or that side.

Oh, I believe that the pressure for a significant market increase has started to intensify. Eventually, it won't take long, in June, July, and August, three long months, you will see whether my previous statements were correct or not. Let's watch together. I will consistently provide updates from the field. Have a great day, and that's it for my video. I hope it was helpful. Thank you.

거봐 절대 안 속는댔지

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안녕하세요 얼음공장입니다. 

저는 기존의 삶 시스템을 기반으로 경제적 자유를 추구하는 모든 분들을 응원합니다. 

숫자, 이론, 전문지식보다 실제로 삶의 변화를 만들 수 있는 것은 삶에 대한 태도변화와 

그에 맞는 시간과 에너지 활용이라고 믿습니다.

자격증같은 전문지식들로 삶을 바꿀 수 있었다면 지금까지 해온 수많은 공부들이

아직 자유를 주지 않은 것이 이상하지 않으신가요. 

저는 그게 늘 의아했습니다. 

평생 공부를 하며 남들 하는대로 다 했는데, 왜 그렇게 답답하고 자유롭지 못 했었는지요. 

그래서 변화를 꿈꿨고 도전했습니다. 

결국 중요한 건 간절함과 결단력 그리고 시간과 에너지입니다. 

제가 직접 공부하고 경험해 본 이야기들을 토대로 많은분들께 도움을 드릴 수 있는 채널을 만들기 위해 노력하겠습니다.

얼음공장의 반백수 프로젝트

농장은 다주택자에 대한 규제에도 불구하고 지금이 투자하기 좋은 시기라고 믿습니다.

그는 생동감 있는 강의의 필요성과 비용 효율적인 투자를 위해 직원들과 협력하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

현재 시장 동향과 작년 부동산 시장의 영향도 농장의 인사이트의 핵심 포인트입니다.

현재 부동산 시장은 특히 거래량이 적은 지역을 중심으로 전세에서 매매로의 전환이 일어나고 있습니다.

이러한 추세는 주택 판매 증가와 일시적인 시장 반등으로 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

그러나 장기적인 성장 가능성은 투자자들의 결정과 외부 금융 규제에 의해 제한됩니다.

현재 주택 시장에서 투자자와 부동산 투기꾼의 역할

투자자들은 일반적으로 낮은 가격에 매수하여 높은 가격에 매도하는 것을 목표로 하지만, 제한된 자원으로 시장을 상승시키기 위해 고군분투하고 있습니다.

현재 시장은 다수의 주택 소유자나 투자자보다는 부동산 투기꾼과 잠재적인 구매자 심리의 변화에 의해 주도되고 있습니다.

발표자는 금리의 불확실성에도 불구하고 시장 심리의 변화와 부동산 투기꾼의 영향으로 인해 시장이 지속적으로 긍정적인 추세를 보일 것으로 예상합니다.

시장 규제와 주택의 변화하는 흐름

최근 주택 대출에 대한 세금 규제와 요건을 완화하는 방향으로 논의가 옮겨가고 있습니다.

발표자는 금리와 세금을 인하해야 한다는 의견에도 불구하고 현재의 주택 부족 문제를 해결하기 위해 시장 규제를 어느 정도 완화해야 한다고 주장합니다.

발표자는 정부가 더 빨리 조치를 취하지 않은 것을 비판하고 지금 규제를 완화하면 부동산 시장의 추가 가격 상승으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고합니다.

신규 주택 공급의 감소는 점점 더 심각해지는 문제이며 곧 눈에 띄게 될 것입니다.

주택 노후화와 신규 공급 둔화 문제가 적절히 해결되지 않고 있어 재개발 및 신축 프로젝트의 필요성이 요구되고 있습니다.

이 문제가 더 심화되기 전에 해결하려면 규제를 완화하고 주택 시장을 활성화하는 것이 중요합니다.