this video was brought to you by brilliant. Migration is clearly a hot topic in the EU at the moment. Migration skeptic parties are on the rise across the continent, and more than a quarter of Europeans who participated in this May's election were driven by their concerns about migration. This is in large part because the number of migrants, especially irregular migrants, has risen steeply in recent years. In 2023, for instance, the number of asylum applications reached nearly 1.2 million, the highest since the peak of the 2015 EU migration crisis. In response to these challenges, EU states vowed this May to adopt a new migration and asylum pact, which is set to take effect in June of 2026. Yet, despite years of negotiations aimed at reaching a consensus on the pact, some member states remain apparently dissatisfied with the final outcome. And just last week, the group leader of the new Patriots group of the European Parliament declared the EU migration pact dead nearly two years before it's even been put into effect. So in

this video. We're going to take another look at what exactly is in this pack, some of its perceived shortcomings, and whether it is indeed already [Music] dead. Before we start, if you're interested in global alliances and groupings like Schengen, then you might like our brand new poster Every Alliance Explains, which shows in slightly confusing detail how every country interacts with each other. It's available by clicking the link in the description, and for a limited time, you can get 20% off with code SHENAN. So let's start by explaining what's actually in The Pact. The new pact aims to thoroughly reform Europe's migration policy and is in part a reaction to the 2015 migration crisis, which put a massive strain on the EU's migration policy. The massive influx of asylum seekers, more than two million in 2015 and 2016 alone, destabilized cooperation between member states and showed that the EU lacked the framework to deal with significant increases in asylum applications, like the spike that we're currently seeing. Broadly speaking

the pack aims to do three things. First, the pack aims to speed up and strengthen asylum claims processing at the EU's borders. Under the new rules, anyone arriving at the EU's external borders or having been rescued at sea will have to go through a mandatory screening. If they're likely to be granted asylum, like they've come from a war-torn country, they'll enter a standard asylum process. On the other hand, if they're considered security risks or from places with low asylum approval rates, they'll go through a border procedure which aims to be wrapped up within less than 12 weeks. While their cases are being processed, they won't be recognized as having entered the EU, and the obligations will be handled near the border, sometimes even in detention. Second, it seeks to establish a fairer quota system for member states. Currently, the Dublin regulation, which has been the source of much of the EU's migration-related tension, delegates the examination of asylum applications to the first EU country where migrants arrive. In practice, this means that much of the

EU's migration pressures are concentrated on the so-called frontier countries like Greece, Italy, and Malta, who have long felt that this is unfair. To remedy this, the pact outlines a solidarity mechanism between member states, meaning that member states will be obliged to take in migrants from the frontier countries to central European states like the Netherlands. However, if central European states choose not to accept additional migrants, they have the option to essentially buy their way out of the responsibility by paying around €2,000 for each migrant to the host countries. This could prove significant because the EU apparently aims to have 30,000 relocations between member states every year. Third and finally, the pact also aims to improve the return rate of those asylum seekers whose claims are rejected. For context, the current return rate is only about 25%, which means only about one in every four asylum seekers who are ordered to leave actually does. Under the new rules, member states will be allowed to designate certain regions in other countries as safe, which could make it

easier for them to reject asylum requests and increase deportation rates now. While this new system is almost definitely an improvement, certain member states don't like certain parts of it. As we see it, there are three common objections. Firstly, even if the EU manages to set up a system to process asylum applications more quickly, it will still continue to struggle with returns. After all, it takes two to tango, as it's not possible to return an asylum seeker to a given country without the cooperation of that country. But most African and Middle Eastern countries have little incentive to take back irregular migrants deported from the EU, and most lack the administrative capacity to handle it anyway. This is why certain member states are instead trying to offshore processing to non-EU countries. Italy's right-wing government has already set up such a return hub in Albania, and the German opposition, which looks overwhelmingly likely to win the next federal election, has expressed an interest in a Rwanda-style deal. Secondly, what we should note is that EU leaders have

set aside 2 billion for the pack. It may just prove to be too expensive. Basically, each country needs to come up with hefty proposals to show how they intend to implement the new rules, such as building infrastructure and hiring new border staff. But some member states, frontier states in particular, might need more money than Brussels can provide. But the third issue, and the one that looks most likely to actually scupper the deal, is that many member states aren't entirely comfortable with the solidarity mechanism. There's been some complaint from frontier countries that the solidarity mechanism is too weak. In other words, it seems likely that most other countries will just pay the €20,000 rather than take in asylum seekers. But conversely, some more euroskeptic governments resent the idea of paying Brussels to accept asylum seekers. For instance, this September, the Netherlands' far-right government said that it would seek an opt-out from the pact's rules, which they see as inconsistent with their plans to establish what they describe as the quote strictest asylum

regime in Europe then just hours after the Netherlands made this claim. Hungary, which has a long-standing dispute with the EU over asylum policy, piggybacked on the Netherlands bid, announcing that it intends to apply for an exemption as well. Similarly, in Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his government has no intention of respecting the provisions of the pact and said that no one can force him to implement it. This came just a week after he temporarily suspended asylum rights on Poland's border with Belarus after receiving an influx of migrants from Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, the Polish opposition has called for a nationwide referendum on the EU migration pact and said that it will start collecting the 500,000 signatures needed to force a vote. While Tusk hasn't formally asked to be temporarily suspended from the pact like Hungary and the Netherlands, this domestic turmoil could force him to do so too. Now, this doesn't mean that the pact is dead on arrival, not least because there's basically zero chance of

the EU granting any exemptions. However, it looks increasingly likely that at least some governments will refuse to pay the €2,000 required by the solidarity mechanism, reigniting tensions between Brussels and more unruly member states. On top of that, if Poland actually does hold a referendum on the policy and a majority vote against it, then the politics of the new PA will become significantly more difficult, as tends to be the case when direct democracy is introduced into EU policy. Now, what's something that the TDR audience have in common? Well, they're willing to learn something new every day, and one of the videos is a pretty good start. A lot of the stuff we talk about can seem pretty complicated, especially when we dive into analytics and detailed data. Luckily, there's a fun and easy way to learn more, which doesn't cost thousands of dollars or take years of schooling. That's because Brilliant is the best way to learn by doing, with thousands of interactive lessons in maths, data analysis, programming, and AI. Each lesson is filled with hands-on

problem-solving broken down into accessible chunks designed around your busy schedule. That means that by spending just a few minutes a day, you can accumulate new knowledge over time in an actually fun way, and you'll feel the satisfaction that comes with bettering yourself and staying ahead. For instance, perhaps you promise yourself that this year you'll learn more programming skills, but you've just not had enough time, and the year's now coming to an end. Brilliant's growing number of programming courses are a great way to build the foundations and learn real-world applications, with courses on Python, essential coding elements like loops and variables, and even developing your mind to think like a programmer. To try everything Brilliant has to offer for free for a full 30 days, visit brilliant.org/todr or scan the QR code on screen, or you can just click the link in the description. That way, you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription. Thanks for your support, and thanks for watching.

Netherlands and Hungary Ditch the EU's Migration Pact: What Next?

Netherlands and Hungary Ditch the EU's Migration Pact: What Next?