층 인터뷰 시작합니다. 원래 오늘 경희대 서정건 교수님 모시고 미국 대선 분석하려고 했는데, 여러분 아시는 것처럼 이란이 기어이 이스라엘을, 또 스도 텔아비브 인근을 탄도 미사일 공격을 감행했습니다. 이란 외교부는 이스라엘이 더하지 않으면 우리도 여기서 멈추겠다는 입장을 내놨는데, 이스라엘이 여기서 멈출 것 같지 않고요. 급하게 박현도 교수님 먼저 모셨습니다. 박 교수님 설명 듣고 이어서 경희대 서정 교수님 모시겠습니다. 급하게 나오셔서 고맙습니다, 교수님. 이 상황이 정리가 돼야 저희가 교수팀 괴롭히는 걸 좀 멈출 텐데요. 정리가 될까요? 오늘 하실 말씀의 핵심인 것 같습니다. 지난 4월 공격과 다른 점이 있으면요? 네, 4월 공격과 굉장히 다릅니다.

In April, they informed related countries about the attack three days in advance. However, this time, it was only three hours before. It seems that they notified the United States and Russia as well. In the April attack, they launched 350 missiles, including ballistic missiles and drones. Many of these missiles were conventional weapons, and Iran has mentioned a massive release of conventional weapons, suggesting that they wanted to give a taste of their capabilities. This time, they acquired some new missiles, referred to as 180 or 180 units, which are described as nick or supersonic missiles. It has been reported that these are indeed hypersonic. In fact, ballistic missiles can reach speeds of Mach 5 or 6 when they descend, which puts them in the category of hypersonic and supersonic. They are discussing this, mentioning Shahab 1 and 2, as well as Fateh.

There is a lot of talk about Part 1, but I'm not exactly sure where it went. However, it reached its destination quite quickly. So, at that time, after launching, the missile took some time to reach Israel. This time, it reportedly arrived in just 12 minutes, which is extremely fast. Back in April, there were discussions about justifying actions based on reasons, but this time it's different. Iran didn't just fire it as a weapon; Iran always provides reasons and makes efforts to explain its actions. If Iran were a powerful country like the United States, there would be no need for such explanations. However, they always have to clarify why they acted, and there is a logical framework behind it.

I noticed that during the recent attack, when they killed Hassan Nasrallah, Israel used F-35 and F-15 fighter jets to strike their bases. According to reports from Arab media, there are some confirmed damages. Just like the attack in April, the United States and Israel claim that they haven't suffered any significant hits, and that only one Palestinian was killed. However, from the Iranian side, they are saying that at least 20 F-35s were destroyed, and some F-15s as well, claiming that they executed a proper retaliation. Whenever such claims arise, both countries always respond that they will not confirm anything until the other side does. In wars, both sides tend to lie a lot, as seen in Ukraine and Russia as well.

I was hit too much. This doesn't make sense, so it's a lie. Iran could honestly have hit or not hit, but since both sides are discussing it, we can't know for sure. Anyway, regardless of what happened, during the attack in April, where was it? They hit a military base, and there was a justification for that too. But this time, they specifically targeted Hezbollah. The fighter jets, like the F-35, attacked that airbase. If I'm correct, they struck the Nevatim Air Base and the Hatzerim Air Base. Nevatim is where the F-35s are located, and Hatzerim has the F-15s. They are also saying that they hit a Mossad-related facility in Tel Aviv. Of course, Israel claims that they have not been hit and that it wasn't properly managed. And why...

The truth is, Israel cannot really say that they are not shooting in civilian areas. When Israel goes to attack, they drop bombs in civilian areas claiming they are targeting Hamas. Then the question arises: why drop bombs in civilian areas? The argument from Israel is that Hamas is mixed in among civilians, so it is unavoidable that there will be casualties. They say these are unfortunate, unavoidable sacrifices. Similarly, Iran argues that they target Mossad bases located in civilian areas. So, they justify their actions based on that. War is always a matter of justification. The Iranian foreign minister stated that if Israel continues, they will also take action. However, the fact that he mentioned this without anyone asking suggests that they truly do not want to escalate the situation.

The truth is, Israel does not want to create the picture it desires. Therefore, it has been making efforts not to escalate the conflict. However, this time, it is not about escalating; we have retaliated, and we clearly stated that this is not about confirming war. Iran's concern lies in the words of President Pedes. What did President Pedes say? On July 30, when Israel killed Ismail Hani, who had come as a congratulatory representative for the Iranian president's inauguration, the United States and Western countries, including European nations, urged Israel not to retaliate, saying that a ceasefire would happen soon. So, they held back. However, ultimately, the ceasefire did not happen, and the U.S. and the West lied to us. So, when Ismail Hani was killed, the question is why Iran did not retaliate. It is also about the United States.

There was an attempt to appease the West, suggesting that the war would soon end, and that they would comply with that. However, ultimately, it did not happen, and now it seems that they can no longer trust what the United States says. The U.S. did not keep its promises, which likely led to the attacks. Moreover, Hezbollah is a much stronger organization than Hamas. Nasrallah has been leading for 32 years, and now that he has passed away, they are in a situation where they need to take action. It's like losing an arm; they need to confirm something in this situation. Just to share a bit of simple knowledge, the correct pronunciation is actually Nasrullah, but since everyone calls him Nasrallah, it’s become common to use that name. However, they are essentially the same. Nasrullah is a significant figure, and he is...

It was a gathering of warriors filled with passion, but it was an organization that wasn't well organized. However, in 1992, when he became the leader, he solidified Hezbollah into what it is today. He was like an architect or a designer. If it weren't for Nasrallah, of course, it was possible because Iran helped, but without Nasrallah's organizational skills and passion, it wouldn't have happened. But as the leader of Hezbollah, he couldn't help but take action. I still continued to say that not retaliating was the victory for Iran. The truth is, even if Iran stayed quiet, Israel would continue to provoke. So when it came to what should be done, I said that we should endure until the presidential election to ensure a more certain victory. However, ultimately, it seemed that this was something that could no longer be endured. Even so,

Despite everything, they have launched a ballistic missile, and the scale has certainly increased. However, if you look at the context, if you read between the lines, it seems like we should just stop now. There's no need to continue, right? But what kind of country is Israel? They will definitely retaliate. Within a few days, they always talk about how they will attack at the time and in the way they want. What concerns me right now is that Iran's alert level has been higher than in April. Naturally, Israel's level is also high. Furthermore, I am worried about the cards that Israel is considering playing. I believe they will target military bases, but the talk coming from Israel suggests that they are considering striking oil facilities and nuclear facilities. I don't know about the nuclear facilities, as that seems burdensome, but they might go for the oil facilities.

It's big, but why are they targeting oil facilities? According to reports, among the recent attacks by Iran, there is a gas facility in Ashkelon included. If that's the case, and if Israel's gas facility has been hit, then Israel has no choice but to target Iran's oil facilities. So, if Israel targets Iran's oil facilities, what will happen to oil prices? Yes, that's my biggest concern right now. I don't think Netanyahu will stop here. Even before the attack, they were hitting various places a lot, and now they have been hit. So, discussions about oil facilities are coming up, and there are also talks of assassinations. For instance, assassinating important figures like Nasrallah is being mentioned. So, how will Israel respond?

I don't know if there will be retaliation, but Israel is currently not making decisions in the cabinet because they are coordinating with the United States. So, I wonder how much the U.S. can reassure Israel and whether it can prevent Israel from taking action. Israel is attacking while discussing with the U.S. The period from October 2nd to 4th is Israel's holiday; it’s New Year. So, I don't know if they will act during that time or if they will take a moment to pause and carry out their plans after the 4th, maybe around this weekend. However, I believe they will definitely attack. 

As for Netanyahu, what is the final vision? The final vision is the dream of a Middle East that Netanyahu envisions, which he clearly presented in his recent UN speech. In that speech, he brought out two maps; one is the map of blessings, and the other is...

The map of curses indicates that Israel has created a narrative of impotence against Arab nations, playing a significant role in global trade. This reflects the complexities of the Middle East. Another cursed map suggests that Iran continues to shape its influence in the Middle East, posing a threat not only regionally but globally. The question is, what kind of map do we want? We should pursue a map of blessings. While discussing this, Iran's issues were raised. What is the national strategy regarding Iran? Iran is a massive country, and as the leader of the Shia, it is a key player in the region. I often mention that in 2018, Prime Minister Netanyahu, during an interview with Fox News, was asked about the most threatening entity to Israel. He responded by outlining the global implications of that threat.

Ask three questions, not just one. Then, what are those three questions? Netanyahu said it’s about Iran. So, Iran wants to change its current regime. They hope to overthrow this Islamic regime and eventually become a country that fits into the new Middle Eastern order envisioned by Israel. What Netanyahu desires is a new Middle Eastern order. The person who has continuously criticized this new Middle Eastern order is Hassan Nasrallah. He has repeatedly argued that Israel's vision of the Middle East is absurd. Therefore, Netanyahu continues to dream of a new Middle East. Putin is annexing parts of Ukraine that were once Russian territory and is looking to change the Ukrainian regime.

So, I fully understand the war goal of making it a pro-Russian country, and I believe it is quite feasible. However, the professor's question is whether this is realistically possible. Is it really easy for a country like Iran to change its regime? It's not easy at all. From my position, which is somewhat in the middle, countries have given up on this issue. They are giving up on the idea of regime change. The Arab states also hope that Iran, which operates proxy organizations and complicates the Middle Eastern order, will become a normal state. They want Iran to become a normal country and walk alongside them. This is what the Arab states are currently thinking about Iran. In fact, one of the reasons why Iran has been quiet until now is due to the efforts of the Arab states. The Arab countries have continuously communicated with Iran, which is why there hasn't been an escalation up to this point.

I think it's okay to say that I want to create a world without further escalation. I will speak as I hear it. When we drive on the highway, our cars obey traffic signals. However, Iranian cars have always cut in recklessly. I want to say, please don’t do that; let’s follow the rules. I’m not asking for anything else; we don’t want to change drivers. Prime Minister Netanyahu also wants to change drivers and firmly establish Israel's position, but that’s quite difficult on the ground. When we talk about nuclear facilities, we’re referring to uranium enrichment facilities. The term attacking nuclear facilities has various meanings, but Iran's significant nuclear facilities are currently deep in the mountains.

Then they have no choice but to use bunker busters. However, if Israel uses bunker busters to attack those facilities, it would be a truly enormous event. The chaos would be intensified, so I think that seems a bit unrealistic. What is more realistic is the oil facilities. Before I came in, I saw foreign news expressing concern about this, fearing that they might hit the uranium enrichment facilities. If that happens, it would truly shock not only the global oil market but also the global asset market. The fact is, the Bush nuclear power plant is currently operational. If they were to strike there, what would happen? If they hit an operational nuclear power plant, that would be an even bigger issue. I don’t think Netanyahu would go that far. What do you think? With about three to four days left until the U.S. presidential election, how does Netanyahu's fundamental moves play into this?

If this continues, it is true that the Harris camp will be at a disadvantage, while the Trump camp will benefit, even if just a little. Are they possibly thinking about this? They probably are. Netanyahu's dream is for Trump to become president; that would definitely be advantageous for him. Of course, Netanyahu's son-in-law is very close friends with Trump. They are quite a close family. You know, Trump's son-in-law, Kushner, is indeed very close. So when Netanyahu visits Kushner's home, it is said that he even sleeps in Kushner's bed. They are that close. Therefore, it is obvious that for the Harris camp, it would be much better if Trump becomes president. And right now, the Democrats are worried because if they attack Iran's oil facilities, oil prices will rise. When oil prices go up, so do the prices of goods.

It will be quite lively, and especially in the U.S., the possibility of oil prices rising is significant, isn't it? Then, could Harris's election be possible? I have considered that thought as well. It could have a considerable impact. Yes, gas prices have a huge influence because Americans drive a lot. The analysis from foreign media suggests that the inflation rate has somewhat decreased for Harris. Although inflation was quite unfavorable for her, the Biden administration has made some improvements, and in certain surveys, she might even fare better than Trump as an economic leader. Inflation has indeed dropped a bit. Additionally, the New York Times has declared support for Harris, so while these detailed discussions would be better suited for Professor Seo Jeong-gwan, in such a situation, if refineries or oil facilities are targeted again, it would be the worst-case scenario.

The United States is bad, but it's the worst globally. That's right. Yes, we will see prices rise immediately. Right now, our discussions, which are not just jokes but serious conversations among Middle East experts, include comments like, Shouldn't we quickly fill up on gas? The attacks on Israel's oil facilities are a disaster. However, from our perspective, Netanyahu's ambitions seem to escalate geopolitical risks significantly. But from the viewpoint of the Israeli people, after Hamas attacked back in October, almost all of Hamas's leaders have been killed. So, from that standpoint, there are definitely aspects where Netanyahu is seen as doing well. Yes, he's doing well.

It's a visible problem, especially since Prime Minister Netanyahu gained popularity due to the attacks. During the Hamas situation, the relations with Hamas were bound to be poor. No matter what is said, they couldn't prevent the war, right? They couldn't stop the outbreak of war, and they couldn't rescue the hostages either. So, that all counts as negative points. However, Hezbollah has a different perspective. Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8 of last year. But there is a problem: Israel and Lebanon share a border, and the area where Hezbollah is located is in southern Lebanon, right next to northern Israel. Given that Israel and Hezbollah have a bad relationship, there is no demilitarized zone or buffer area; people live right there. So, Hezbollah...

When missiles are launched, the residents of Israel have no choice but to leave. Since October of last year, 60,000 Israeli residents who lived within 5 kilometers of the border have now left their homes. Now, think from their perspective. It's been a year, and they still can't return home. This raises the question for the Netanyahu government: does this make sense? Is this a normal country? No matter how much support is provided, such as living expenses, it is still different from living in one's own home. Therefore, they are urging a quick resolution. In Israel, they suggested, Well, then you should move more than 7 kilometers away; we need to establish a buffer zone. However, they are not willing to move. This is why the attacks began. As the attacks started and various achievements were made, applause naturally followed in Israel, which led to a rise in approval ratings among the citizens.

The partial success of consolidating public support is already being achieved. The more Netanyahu strikes Hezbollah and Iran, the more his popularity increases. Previously, the public sentiment towards him was not very good. Yes, that's right. However, Netanyahu's popularity rises the more he attacks Hezbollah and Iran. This is indeed the paradox of war. The U.S. seems to have given up on any negotiations to try that. In my view, the U.S. cannot do anything until the presidential election is over. The Democratic government in the U.S. only talks about progress; outwardly, they express concern for human rights, the lives of children, and the tragic deaths of civilians, saying such things should not happen. But if that's the case, they shouldn't be supplying weapons. They provide weapons while merely talking about human rights and peace.

What is the point of talking about it? To put it concisely, if I quote directly from last September, Jake Sullivan mentioned that the Middle East region is more stable today than it has been in a long time. This reflects the score of the Biden administration's Middle East policy: a complete failure. That was truly live. Let’s look at this. The surrounding Arab countries will definitely take a stronger stance if Israel escalates its actions. It’s clear that Netanyahu will take it that far. So, what position will the surrounding Arab leaders, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, take? They will not intervene, but they will continuously exert pressure on Israel behind the scenes. Israel cannot stop this; the leverage lies with Saudi Arabia.

Don't create disturbances and quickly resolve the Palestinian issue, then I will join hands with you. This is the only card that Saudi Arabia can play right now. Without leverage, they cannot do much. Because of this, Israel's attacks on Iran do not mean that Arab countries can also attack together, nor can they properly prevent it. In fact, they cannot be variables at this point. Arab countries are currently in this situation. Alright, Professor Park Hyun-do, we called you in suddenly today due to the circumstances. Thank you for your explanation; we will end it here and let you go. Thank you. With the careful guidance of investment masters Park Geun-young, Lee Sun-hyuk, and Yeom Seung-hwan, develop healthy investment habits. Check it out on the 3% app for 3% membership.

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새로운 중동을 꿈꾸고 있는 네타냐후…중동 확전 위기 절정 f. 서강대학교 박현도 교수 [심층인터뷰]

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