글로벌 석유 및 천연가스 시장 개요

중국의 석유 수입 감소, 사우디 아람코의 매출 감소, 중동의 지정학적 긴장이 고조됩니다.

### 글로벌 에너지 시장 인사이트: 중국의 석유 수요, 사우디 아람코의 재무, 중동의 지정학적 리스크
* 🇨🇳 최대 석유 수입국인 중국은 **석유 수입량이 작년에 비해 소폭 감소**해 석유 공급에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다. 주요국의 경제 상황이 좋지 않아 **원유 수요 강세에 대한 기대가 충분하지 않습니다.**
* 🛢 사우디 아람코의 매출과 순이익은 유가 급락, OPEC 감산, 수요 약화가 판매량에 큰 영향을 미치면서 **작년에 비해 24% 감소**했습니다.
* 🕌 네타냐후 총리가 인내심을 잃고 하마스가 **전쟁 종식과 가자지구에서 이스라엘의 완전한 철수**를 요구하면서 중동의 지정학적 긴장, 특히 이스라엘과 팔레스타인 간의 긴장이 고조되고 있습니다.
* 🔥 예루살렘의 알 아크사 모스크는 **라마단 기간 동안 핵심적인 장소**이며, 이슬람에서 상징성이 높은 곳이기 때문에 **사소한 문제라도 심각한 사태로 확대**될 수 있습니다.
* 🇪🇺 현재 유럽의 천연가스 공급량은 평소보다 약 **20% 포인트 높은 60% 수준**이며, 향후 15~20일 내에 큰 폭의 급등이 발생하지 않는 한 **가격이 급격히 상승하지는 않을 것**으로 보입니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국에서는 약 3일간 평년보다 추운 날씨가 예상되어 겨울철 수요와 관련된 **천연가스 가격 상승을 저해**하고 있습니다. 여름철 엘니뇨 발생 가능성이 높아짐에 따라 시장은 **폭염 가능성을 고려**하기 시작했습니다.
* 📈 에너지 시장은 경기 회복보다는 연착륙에 더 초점을 맞추고 있으며, **금리 인하 사이클이 끝나면서 잠재적인 수요 둔화**를 반영하고 있습니다.
* 🌍 컨테이너선 공격, 드론 공격 등 중동의 지정학적 리스크는 이제 어느 정도 정상화되어 **대규모 공급 차질은 상대적으로 제한적**입니다.

Hello, I am Kwang-rae Kim, in charge of atoms at the Samsung Gift News Team. This time, I titled it The Subtitle of Uranium and Natural Gas Demand, and now let's briefly look at each issue. First of all, let me talk about China's nuclear issue. Basically, China is the largest oil importing country and has a significant gap with the second-place United States. The problem is that China's oil imports have shown a slight decrease compared to last year, causing concerns internally in China about oil supply. Initially, there was a lack of large-scale stimulus measures in China, and the absence of demand sources to replace such rapid growth in China.

The economic situation of major countries is not very favorable, so it seems a bit insufficient to expect a strong demand for crude oil in this atmosphere. Even just looking at the operating rate of Chinese refineries, despite experiencing a sharp decline due to issues like the COVID-19 pandemic and cold weather from the early 2020s to 2022, if we examine the recent refinery operating rate, even considering seasonality, it is currently about 10% to 20% lower. Therefore, since around November last year, there has been a situation where a backwardation has occurred, and if you look at the demand related to the export of Chinese petroleum products due to the impact of the epidemic, it seems to be following a somewhat weak trend as shown on the right chart. So, I think it is not showing a strong flow yet. As mentioned earlier, there were no large-scale stimulus measures at the Yangtze River, but on the other hand, the Chinese government has

Anyway, there was a mention of restructuring in the real estate industry. So, just a while ago, the second-largest real estate company had issues with credit rating adjustments. Therefore, it seems that in the short term, there might be a prevailing atmosphere of economic downturn. Another news is related to the oil industry. Saudi Aramco's revenue decreased by 24% compared to last year, and the net profit also decreased by about 24%. On the other hand, dividends increased by 30%. It seems that this had a significant impact on the Saudi government, which currently holds over 82% of Aramco shares. In addition, pension funds, national pension funds, and industrial funds now hold about 16%, and 1.7% is currently listed. Some are listed. Originally, the industrial fund held 4%.

I had holdings, but last week, I transferred an additional 88% of P. Therefore, the government's influence is currently at about 98% in total. It seems like the government's influence has played a significant role. Anyway, after the announcement of the increased dividends, the stock price of Saudi Aramco also showed a significant rebound. When we look at the fundamental reasons for the decrease in revenue, it seems that the sharp decline in oil prices, OPEC reductions, and additional reductions have significantly affected the sharp decrease in sales volume. It also seems that the margin itself has deteriorated significantly as demand has weakened, acting as a considerable burden. Therefore, when we look at the Saudi finances, it is highly likely that Saudi's financial deficit will continue steadily, unless there are significant changes.

Due to this, it could act as a significant burden for the Saudi government, and as a result, it is highly likely to have a negative impact on the oil production cut. Ramadan has now started. As of March 11th, according to local time, Ramadan has begun. President Biden has been consistently playing a mediating role, but the situation seems to be deteriorating significantly. Even in early March, negotiations were hoped to be held until March 4th, but it did not happen. It was also anticipated that negotiations could be possible before Ramadan, but again, it did not happen. So, they have been continuing to exert pressure, and now, it seems that Netanyahu is almost losing his patience. By making such statements, a somewhat tense atmosphere is being created between the two sides. Therefore, Israel currently...

Gagam claims that the ceasefire has been achieved, and the rest will be finalized within the next 3 to 4 weeks, at least. By saying this, they seem to imply to the Biden administration, We won't drag you to the election, so please allow this much. Therefore, even now, it seems like behind-the-scenes negotiations are probably ongoing. However, the problematic part is that Hamas is demanding not a temporary truce but an end to the war. Also, they are insisting that the Israeli army completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, the Israeli side is currently demanding, before engaging in any dialogue with Hamas, to first confirm the status of their prisoners, whose life or death is uncertain. This is what they are requesting. In a way, they are asking each other to first

Given that conditions are continuously being set for shipment, there seems to be ongoing friction in these areas. Ramadan has just begun, and currently, the most attention-grabbing place in the market is the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Why is this important? Firstly, it is one of the holy sites in Islam, along with Saudi Mecca, Medina, and the Al-Aqsa region. These three places are the three major holy sites in Islam. Currently, a large number of Muslims have already gathered at this mosque. Israel has deployed thousands of soldiers, police, and forces to the area. Therefore, even minor issues could escalate significantly, especially during the Ramadan period when Muslims are

I am fasting, so usually fasting starts from early morning until now, in the evening. As you may know, when people fast, they become quite sensitive. Therefore, even minor issues can lead to group resistance or even minor conflicts. In fact, there were reports of minor conflicts occurring in some areas on the first day of Ramadan. So, I think this is an issue that should continue to be monitored closely in the market. Considering the symbolism of Al-Aqsa Mosque, even though Hamas invaded Israel on a large scale last October, Al-Aqsa was involved in the operation. It was a storm of Al-Aqsa, right? Yes, so because it is a place with high symbolism, it is necessary to look into the news related to this matter.

I think it will be necessary. Next is the natural gas sector. First of all, in terms of natural gas supply, it is currently at about 60%, which is approximately 20 percentage points higher than usual. Of course, there were factors such as European countries actively stocking up until October of last year and the weather being much warmer than usual, so the depletion of supplies was not as large as expected. Typically, by the end of March, the inventory is usually depleted, and from April, the inventory starts to be accumulated in earnest. Therefore, we are now approaching mid-March, with about 15 days remaining. If no significant surge occurs during this period of 15 to 20 days, in fact, the inventory within Europe.

Weather-related issues are not likely to cause a sharp increase in egg prices. When looking at the current inventory situation, France has a relatively lower inventory compared to other countries. Among the major countries, France has about 40% lower inventory, the Netherlands 54%, Italy 56%, and Germany 67%. Germany seems to have managed the situation better. Large inventories located in Germany appear to be relatively well managed. Therefore, we will continue to update the depletion rate of inventory in the future. Unless a large-scale cold wave occurs immediately, as it is not the season for inventory injection, supply-related issues are relatively minor. Next is the forecast for the United States.

This is a related part. In the case of the U.S., currently, until 19 days ago, one day before the 19th, and one day after, so on the 18th and the 20th, for about 3 days, colder weather than usual is expected. However, even until then, until the 17th, it is anticipated that heating demand will be much lower than usual, and even after the 20th, lower demand than usual is still expected. It seems to be hindering the rise in natural gas prices related to winter demand. Of course, the market is mostly aware that the low demand in winter is already known and is expected to be finalized at a level that already meets the demand. Moreover, the possibility of El Niño occurring in the summer has increased, and the market is now to some extent considering the possibility of a heatwave.

Based on the monthly basis, we are now increasing our bets. In this situation, it seems that buying interest is somewhat noticeable, particularly around the original material. Therefore, in reality, even recent monthly materials show some reactions, but the period when summer-related bets start to intensify seems to be around mid-April. The reason for this is that this is the time when related demand begins to emerge prominently. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the natural gas prices around that time. Actually, I think it's a bit vague to make summer bets at the moment. So, the historic wildfires in the Texas area, like Smokehouse Creek, are mostly reported to have been contained now. Also, there has been a slight adjustment in current U.S. natural gas production.

With the rebound, the market is now mentioning the possibility of no further production adjustments. Currently, if we look at the recent weekly basis, Texas, the top producing state, and Pennsylvania, the second top producer, are attracting market attention regarding their production fluctuations. Therefore, it seems necessary to continue monitoring the U.S. production issues. So, this is the content I have prepared. If you have any questions, I will answer them through the chat.

This is the time when the interest rate cut cycle ends. Originally, the reason the Federal Reserve mentioned the possibility of a rate cut after freezing the rate is somewhat reflecting the potential slowdown on the demand side. Therefore, historically, there have been relatively many cases where demand weakened at the beginning of actual interest rate cuts, and it is also correct to express that there were probabilistically many cases. If you look at the chart for the past 20 years, you will understand it better. I have drawn it a few times before, and as you mentioned, it is true that the economy typically enters a rising cycle of commodities, including oil, in the early stages. However, as you mentioned, there is a aspect where commodities tend to react relatively earlier. From that perspective, in the market, rather than the perception of economic recovery, the focus is more on how the market will achieve a soft landing.

It seems to be there. Yes, so now we need to consider the possibility of an economic downturn. I think we need to take into account to some extent, right? Geopolitical risks are present in the market. If we divide it into crude oil and natural gas, speaking of geopolitical risks, if we only focus on the geopolitical risks occurring in the Middle East, it is true that we should pay more attention to the oil side rather than natural gas. If we look at it in a broader sense, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, in the early stages of the war, it had a significant impact on the oil side, but now it's almost nonexistent. I mentioned this before. Due to the almost non-existent supply disruption issues, as you mentioned, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are now almost as common as the passing ships in the Hong Kong area every day.

Regarding attacks on container ships, attacks on the Houthis, bombings by the US and UK forces, drone attacks by the US fleet, missile attacks, at this level, it seems like they are not fundamentally affecting the market. The market seems to have already become somewhat accustomed, and in reality, there is a feeling that there is not much disruption in large-scale supplies such as oil production. Therefore, the risks seem to be relatively limited. For example, Mr. Lee Kyung-hoon asked if the natural gas prices would rise when wildfires occur in Canada every year. If a large wildfire occurs and leads to actual supply disruptions, gas prices tend to rise significantly. Normally, natural gas prices would.

During periods of price increases, it is often associated with various supply and demand issues rather than solely winter demand. Therefore, it is rare for prices to rise based on just one issue. Of course, there may be temporary short-term increases, but unless there are significant supply disruptions such as a prolonged LNG export suspension, it seems a bit challenging for prices to continue rising solely based on that issue. As you mentioned, whether the market prices have risen significantly more or less than expected also plays a role. Therefore, if the market experiences larger-than-expected occurrences or if there is a significant increase in production beyond traditional levels, this aspect can clearly act as upward pressure on prices.

Yes, so the question was whether the movements are similar. Basically, the direction can be similar, but the time frame is a bit different. For example, in the case of LNG, there are many long-term contract forms, and in terms of issues related to natural gas, LNG prices do not react sensitively. Natural gas, as commonly discussed, is mostly related to the U.S. market price. The nature of the U.S. natural gas market is somewhat stronger, whereas LNG futures are mainly focused on Asia and Europe. So, although there are times when the movements are similar, there are also times when they are quite different.

You asked if the CPI goes up, will fuel prices go down. First of all, basically, if the CPI comes out higher than market expectations, then it is a part where we need to think about it quite a bit. In this case, there may be concerns that the market might delay the timing of interest rate cuts, which could act as downward pressure. On the contrary, it could have the opposite effect, and if the CPI is lower than expected, there is a high possibility that fuel prices will be exposed to relatively upward pressure. Yes, fundamentally, it seems that the relationship between the two will be like that, and the relationship with oil as well. Yes, if there are no further questions, I will stop here with the answer, and next week, I will come back with more substantial content. So far, this has been Kim Kang-ri from the Samsung Futures Research Team in charge of energy. Thank you for listening.

천연가스랑 원유, 수요가 없다고?

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삼성선물 

중국의 석유 수입과 사우디 아람코의 수익에 미치는 영향

중국의 석유 수입량이 소폭 감소하면서 중국의 석유 공급에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

중국 정유소의 가동률도 감소하여 중국 석유 제품의 수요 약세 추세로 이어지고 있습니다.

사우디 아람코는 매출이 24% 감소했지만 배당금이 30% 증가하면서 주가가 큰 폭으로 반등했습니다.

수익 감소는 유가 급락, OPEC 감산, 수요 약화 등의 영향으로 사우디 아라비아에 상당한 재정적 부담을 안겨주었습니다.

라마단과 이스라엘-팔레스타인 분쟁을 둘러싼 긴장감

라마단이 시작되면서 알 아크사 모스크가 큰 주목을 받는 등 민감한 분위기가 조성되고 있습니다.

이스라엘과 하마스 간의 분쟁이 계속되면서 휴전 및 포로 확인을 요구하는 등 마찰이 빚어지고 있습니다.

바이든 대통령의 개입과 석유 감산에 대한 잠재적 영향으로 상황은 더욱 복잡해졌습니다.

현재 유럽의 천연가스 공급량은 약 60%로 높은 수준이며, 주요 국가 중 프랑스가 가장 낮은 재고량을 보유하고 있습니다.

겨울철이 끝나면서 갑작스러운 한파가 발생하지 않는 한 공급량이 크게 증가하지는 않을 것으로 예상됩니다.

미국은 예년보다 낮은 난방 수요를 경험하고 있어 겨울철 천연가스 가격 상승에 걸림돌이 될 것으로 보입니다.

현재 시장은 엘니뇨와 여름철 폭염 가능성에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 4월 중순경에 매수세가 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

시장 분석: 생산 조정, 금리 및 지정학적 리스크

시장은 반등 이후 추가적인 생산량 조정이 없을 가능성을 염두에 두고 텍사스와 펜실베니아의 생산량 변동에 주목하고 있습니다.

미연준의 금리 인하 가능성에 대한 언급은 역사적으로 원자재 상승 사이클과 연관된 수요 둔화 가능성과 관련이 있습니다.

특히 중동의 지정학적 리스크는 공급 차질이 제한적이라는 인식으로 인해 시장에 큰 영향을 미치지 않고 있지만, 캐나다의 대형 산불은 천연가스 가격의 눈에 띄는 상승을 초래할 수 있습니다.

가격 인상 및 시장 움직임에 영향을 미치는 요인

가격 상승은 단일 이슈로 인해 발생하는 경우는 드물며, 일반적으로 계절적 변화보다는 수요와 공급 요인에서 비롯됩니다.

심각한 공급 차질이나 예상보다 높은 생산량은 가격 상승 압력으로 작용하여 시장 움직임에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

소비자물가지수(CPI)와 연료 가격의 관계는 복잡하며, CPI 수준이 금리 인하 시점에 영향을 미치고 이는 다시 연료 가격에 영향을 줄 수 있습니다.