시장 분석: 높은 변동성 및 리스크 관리 조언

변동성이 큰 시장에서는 위험을 줄이고 투자자의 손실을 피하기 위해 현금 보유량을 늘리는 것이 중요합니다.

### 시장 분석: 높은 변동성 주의 및 리스크 관리 전략
* 📉 어제 **나스닥은 2.3% 하락**했고, **S&P 500, QQQ, 반도체 업종도 비슷한 패턴**을 보이며 높은 시장 변동성을 보였습니다.
* 📊 "하루 동안 **10%의 움직임은 위험이 증가했음**을 의미합니다."
* 💰 변동성이 큰 시장에서는 **위험한 베팅을 하는 대신 현금 보유**를 늘리는 것이 좋습니다.
* 📈 시장 공매도를 고려할 때는 잠재적인 숏 스퀴즈를 피하기 위해 **전환점 이후 2~3일 정도 기다리는 것**이 좋습니다.
* 🧠 "시장은 **불안감이 커지면 손실로 이어지는** 방향으로 움직입니다."
* 📉 현재 시장은 상승장이 아닌 조정 국면이므로 **단기 반등을 해석**할 때는 주의가 필요합니다.
* 💡 "투자하기에 가장 안전한 시기는 **모든 사람 또는 대부분의 사람들이 심리적으로 지금 상승하기 시작할 만큼 충분히 저렴해졌다는 데 동의**할 때입니다."
* 📉 "단기간에 수익을 내고자 하는 사람이라면 **매도**해야 하고, 장기 투자자인 사람이라면 **이런 시기가 올 때까지 기다려야 한다**는 뜻입니다."

This is a technical analysis. Let's take a look at the market situation. For example, in the case of Nasdaq, it dropped by 2.3% yesterday, reversing the upward trend from the day before and moving back downward. The S&P 500, QQQ, and especially the semiconductor sector showed a similar pattern. The volatility itself is very high. Movements of 10% in a day indicate that the risk has increased. As I have emphasized before, when volatility is high, it means that the risk has increased. Some may see high volatility as an opportunity, but in my case, I perceive the situation where fluctuations are increasing as a higher risk. When the risk increases, what should you do? Instead of betting, you should increase your cash holdings.

It is about the movements. Those who moved according to these movements can continue to hold cash and wait. Even if the fluctuations were large, those who entered the bet suffered significant losses. Even if they say this is a rebound and decide to jump in, since they experienced a 20% drop yesterday, their average price worsens. As previously emphasized, following this trend will likely lead to higher losses. So, we need to learn from here. Even if we incur losses, it is meaningful to learn. I think this market is providing us with many lessons. Let me give you an example. I have explained various points. First, I mentioned that you need to look at the trading volume.

In a previous video, I emphasized the flow, meaning that if the selling volume surges, the selling trend could strengthen. I also mentioned the importance of maintaining a short-term trend when a strong selling volume emerges on that day. However, the short-term trend has collapsed. So, if we decide to short, when betting on the downside, we should enter at the turning point. We need to wait for about 2 to 3 days from the turning point to enter. Why should we do this? It's because a short squeeze could occur. When there is an excessive amount of shorts, liquidation of short positions often leads to a rebound. However, such liquidation rebounds tend to occur quickly when the downside pressure is strong. Therefore, being deceived by this, it is called a buying timing.

When you go in, there is a possibility that you will incur losses again. The key trends we could see in this market are as follows. When the two major sell volumes I mentioned earlier increase significantly, we need to be cautious. And when the trend is broken, we need to be careful. This market is clearly showing us these things. Next, let's look at the recent movements. The downward trend has been strengthening continuously, and in this situation, there was a rebound. To decide whether to view this as a buying opportunity or as a short squeeze, you need to observe for at least about three days. In order to establish a support line, this short-term trend has recovered, so I mentioned how this short-term trend direction will be. I said that a changing trend needs to emerge. However, if you enter into buying based on just one day's movement, then again

Physics can be subject to the flow, so when we think about it psychologically, those who entered the market at the rebound timing, after continuously falling, were pushed down again by a drop of nearly 20% yesterday. Those who entered at this point must have a strong psychological state, right? Their mindset for exiting will be very strong. The anxiety level will be extremely high. They will be thinking, What should I do with the stocks I bought? Did I enter for no reason? From today, the market is not going to recover right away. The more such anxious psychology exists, the less reason the market has to rise. Because ultimately, this anxiety is likely to pour out as selling pressure. Therefore, the market will dump even the stocks with this anxiety.

A reversal is expected due to the rise. That's why there is no immediate reason to recover the buying volume that entered at this time, as it was left behind by yesterday's situation. It is likely that a reversal will occur after withdrawing some volume from the downside. This is a matter of psychology. On the other hand, to explain why it is difficult to shoot, it's because the downward trend was strong, so I went short. Ultimately, what happened was a close to 20% turnaround. So, from the perspective of those who went short, there is a high possibility that they cannot withstand the anxiety at this point. Therefore, they may sell here and regret it when they see it dropping again yesterday. This is where this psychological understanding clashes. Oh, in this situation where it dropped again, going short, and conversely, those who bought at this time are now left behind. So, among these psychological aspects,

The market moves in a direction where increasing anxiety leads to losses. If you understand this concept, ultimately, you can understand that our contrarian investment moves with this direction and characteristic. Therefore, if you ask what will happen to the market in the future, the volume that entered here was absorbed in just one day, so short-term anxiety will be greater. Because those who went short immediately saw significant profits yesterday, there is no reason to fall into anxiety. This is because the trend that surprised them came just two days ago, so the likelihood of it happening again has decreased significantly. Therefore, the market itself is likely to draw more downward in the short term, and those who entered during this short-term rebound phase will sell again.

It is said that the possibility of a turnaround towards an increase is high around this time. So why am I telling you this? Ultimately, we should not always invest. We cannot always invest. You cannot continue to invest in everything every day. The safest time to invest is when everyone, or most people, psychologically agrees that it has become cheap enough to start rising now, and the psychology of selling now is that it is cheap. When that sentiment dominates the market, that's when the trend of rising begins. So, until that time comes, you should wait a bit and maintain a high cash position, observing. This is the way to reduce risks. In a situation where the sentiment is like now, and I myself am not sure where to invest, there is no reason to start with precious cash in falling assets.

It would be helpful if you understand that there is no prediction. Semiconductor itself is in such a situation right now, so I mentioned not to make predictions like the video I shot three days ago. We shouldn't try to predict but should respond. The current market is in a correction phase, not in a rising phase, it's a bear market. So, just because there was a rebound from a bear market, it doesn't immediately turn into a bull market. It takes time for a shift from bear to bull market, and vice versa. So, there are buying opportunities in this range of flow. However, trying to time the market continuously while this is happening can actually raise the average purchase price. Therefore, I emphasize to be careful about those aspects. Even when looking at individual stocks, like NVIDIA, they are heading down again.

A trend is emerging in the drawings, and in the case of Tesla, the short-term trend is breaking through again. Ultimately, I think the possibility of revisiting the downside low has increased. Therefore, I advised not to buy in this range. For those who are looking to make quick profits, it means you should sell, and for those who are long-term investors, it means you should wait until this kind of period comes. Instead of buying hastily, since the overall market is bearish, it's better to hold cash and watch the trend. It's important to secure as much cash as possible to capture the timing when the market weakens and changes direction. This is a crucial time. Even VIX is currently surging strongly.

Given that the market is currently in an upward trend, we always mention that we are at a higher risk in this situation. Risk here refers to volatility itself rather than the likelihood of falling. As volatility increases, so does the risk. For instance, when an index fluctuates by 10% in a day, and companies worth trillions of won are dropping hundreds of billions in a day, this indicates a market with high volatility, not a normal one. The fact that the market direction keeps changing from up to down, up again, down, and so on, shows that it is not a normal market. Therefore, in such times, it is important to be cautious of the risks. I always emphasize not to be swayed by short-term fluctuations, whether the market goes up or down in a day. Instead, it is crucial to invest with principles in mind and consider reducing risks.

Even if the market is down, I believe that we can continue to invest without any significant setbacks or pain. In fact, if you see through my membership, the portfolio I invest in is not experiencing losses. Instead, it continues to show gains. We invest in a way to avoid risks, so I think you can consider that these aspects are possible. First and foremost, it is important not to lose assets, especially in a volatile market like the current one. By understanding this, I will continue to provide insights on avoiding risks to ensure that our subscribers do not suffer losses. I believe that there is plenty to gain if you utilize the insights. I will end today's video here. Thank you.

나스닥 SOXL 급반락 배워야 할 핵심은!? ｜결국 시장이 스승입니다!

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(채널 소개)
"주로 미국 주식과 ETF 기술적 분석으로 투자합니다."
"장전 분석을 원칙으로  증시 시황 분석합니다."
"국내외 개별 종목 및 다양한 시장 지표도 분석합니다."

(유튜버소개)
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주식책 100여권 읽고 주식 시작"
"주식으로 경제적 자유 꿈 꿉니다."
"뱉은 말에 책임지는 유튜버 되겠습니다."
" 구독자와 함께 성장하겠습니다." 

(투자 방법론 강의 구매)
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(연락처)
채널 관련 문의는 quietrichman@gmail.com



기술적분석

시장 분석: 높은 변동성과 위험 증가

3% 하락했고 S&P 500, QQQ, 반도체 업종도 하락하여 변동성이 높고 리스크가 커졌습니다.

이런 상황에서는 추세를 따라가면 큰 손실을 볼 수 있으므로 베팅 대신 현금 보유를 늘리는 것이 좋습니다.

이 분석은 또한 숏 스퀴즈에 속지 않기 위해 숏 포지션에 진입하기 전에 거래량을 살펴보고 전환점을 기다리는 것이 중요하다는 점을 강조합니다.

시장 동향과 심리적 영향 해석하기

시장에 매도 물량이 크게 증가하고 있어 주의가 필요합니다.

강한 하락 추세가 반등으로 중단되면서 매수세와 공매도 사이에서 딜레마가 발생하고 있습니다.

시장 불안에 따른 심리적 영향이 커서 매도 압력이 증가하고 시장 반전이 예상됩니다.

시장 동향과 반대 투자에 대한 이해

시장의 불안감이 커지면 손실이 발생하고 반대 방향의 투자는 반대로 움직입니다.

최근 단기간에 시장 물량이 흡수되면서 단기 불안감이 높아져 추가 하락 가능성이 커지고 있습니다.

투자하기에 가장 안전한 시기는 시장 심리가 상승하기에 충분히 저렴하다고 판단하여 위험을 줄일 수 있을 때입니다.

반도체 시장은 현재 상승 국면이 아닌 조정 국면에 있으며 이는 약세장을 의미합니다.

시장 변화를 예측하려고 하면 평균 구매 가격이 높아질 수 있으므로 신중하게 투자하는 것이 좋습니다.

엔비디아, 테슬라 같은 종목은 하락 추세를 보이고 있어 저점 재방문 가능성이 높으므로 이 박스권에서 매수하는 것은 추천하지 않습니다.

빠른 차익 실현을 위해 매도하고 장기 투자자는 더 나은 시기를 기다리면서 현금을 보유하여 시장 약세와 방향 전환 시기를 포착하는 것이 좋습니다.

특히 현재 VIX가 강하게 급등하고 있기 때문에 더욱 그렇습니다.

시장 변동성이 투자 위험에 미치는 영향

상승 추세장의 주요 위험 요소는 시장 하락 가능성이 아니라 시장 변동성입니다.

큰 변동성과 불규칙한 시장 방향에서 볼 수 있듯이 높은 변동성은 위험을 줄이기 위해 주의가 필요합니다.

시장 변동성에도 불구하고 특히 현재와 같이 변동성이 큰 시장에서는 큰 손실과 손실을 피하기 위해 원칙적인 투자에 초점을 맞춰야 합니다.