태교: 출산율 감소에 대한 우려

### 출산 장려 운동: 경제적 우려 속에서 출산율 증가를 위한 촉구
* 👶 출산율 저하와 그로 인한 잠재적 경제적 영향을 우려하는 운동인 '태교주의'를 지지하는 재단을 이끄는 말콤과 시몬 콜린스의 **5세 미만 자녀 네 명**은 가족을 위해 헌신하는 모습을 잘 보여줍니다.
* 💬 이 운동은 종교적 보수주의자들과 출산율 증가 없이는 문명이 붕괴할 것이라고 믿는 **엘론 머스크와 같은 일부 기술 리더들 사이에서 주목**을 받고 있으며, "붕괴의 연쇄 반응이 일어날 것"이라고 경고하고 있습니다.
* 🔬 샘 알트먼을 비롯한 기술 혁신가들은 가족 계획 옵션을 확대하기 위해 **인공 수정란 및 배아 유전자 염기서열 분석**과 같은 불임 기술에 투자하고 있습니다.
* 📉 현재의 출산율은 50년 이내에 여성 1인당 자녀 수가 **2명 이하**로 떨어질 것으로 예상되며, 이는 세계 경제와 지정학적 안정에 중대한 영향을 미치는 **'출산율 붕괴'**로 이어질 것으로 콜린스는 전망합니다.
* 💰 경제학자들은 출산율이 **1.3명인 일본**과 같은 국가에서 볼 수 있듯이 인구 감소는 경제 생산량 감소로 이어져 공공 부채 상환과 사회 보장 시스템을 위태롭게 할 것이라고 경고합니다.
* 🏫 시몬 콜린스는 출산율 하락의 원인으로 특히 **교육 시스템을 통한 문화적 동질화**를 꼽는 반면, 다른 사람들은 **높은 교육 비용**을 대가족을 가로막는 장벽으로 꼽습니다.
* 콜린스 부부는 배아에서 바람직한 형질을 선택하기 위해 기술을 사용해야 한다고 주장하며 **생명윤리학자들이 경계하는 잠재적 차별과 우생학에 대한 윤리적 우려**를 제기합니다.
* 🏢 콜린스 부부는 정부 지원 육아휴직에는 반대하지만, 모성의 지위를 높이기 위한 문화적 변화를 주장하며 당장의 사회적 필요성에 대한 우려에도 불구하고 **실리콘밸리의 장기적인 사고**가 이러한 아이디어를 촉진하는 데 도움이 될 수 있다고 강조합니다.

콜린스 부부는 경제 붕괴와 문화 침체를 막기 위해 출산율을 높여야 한다고 주장합니다.

(group clamoring) - [Narrator] Four kids under five years old, and Malcolm and Simone Collins say they're just getting started. They run a foundation to support Pronatalism, a movement mostly populated by religious conservatives and immigration opponents concerned that falling fertility rates could lead to economic and political catastrophe. - You're going to have a chain reaction of collapses. - [Narrator] The movement's ideas have also garnered support from a few tech titans, including Elon Musk, father of 12, who has said civilization will crumble if people don't have more kids. - Having a kid is a vote for the future. - [Narrator] Other technological optimists like OpenAI's Sam Altman are focusing on improving fertility tech, like creating artificial eggs and sequencing embryo's genes, providing families more options. - [Sam] Of course, I'm gonna have a big family, like that's what I'm gonna spend my time doing,

I'll just like raise great kids. - Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn donated just under half a million dollars through a donor-advised fund to the Collins' Foundation. - Sometimes I've been asking people two questions, like A, can you program, and B, do you have children? - [Narrator] We spoke to the Collins' about the tie between Silicon Valley and the Pronatalist movement and to an economist and ethicist about what they're missing. - All right, guys, go on in. (soft music) - Demographics are going to determine our future in the next 100 years in such a fundamental way that it's hard to think about anything else. - Each of these lines shows a projection of the number of children a woman from these demographics will have in her lifetime. Right now, the average is between two and three, but in 50 years, that's on track to be fewer than two.

below the replacement rate. The Collins say that could spiral into a more precipitous decline, what they call fertility collapse. - Fertility collapse means we may enter a state in which the global economy is shrinking every year on average, we simply didn't build the global economy with this potentiality ever in mind. When this happens, the entire economic and geopolitical system that our world runs on will begin to fall apart. - [Narrator] Economists and demographers also see a threat. They say that if populations decline, so will economic output. - Lower output is bad because you cannot pay back your public debt. You cannot service your social security. In general, governments have much fewer resources. - [Narrator] Countries like Japan with a fertility rate of 1.3 are already considering proposals to shrink social security plans. Simone Collins, who is running for state representative in Pennsylvania as a Republican, in part, sees falling fertility rates

as a cultural problem. One of the primary dampeners on fertility, especially in developed nations, is a homogenization of culture, often through the public school system, sometimes through other means as well. Universities are a common culprit as well that causes people to enter a very low fertility urban monoculture essentially that kind of is the death knell of fertility. [Narrator] Villaverde thinks there are other forces at play. Education has become very expensive all across the world, not only in the US both in terms of money, but also in terms of time. So you need to be on top of your kid during the four years of high school and be sure that your kid does the homework and be sure that the kid goes to all the right activities in the afternoon. And that means that unless you have a lot of income, is very difficult to have one or or more than two kids. [Narrator] The Collins' don't just think people should try

to have more kids. They think people should be able to use technology to select for certain characteristics. The family has used startup genomic prediction, which Sam Altman has invested in, to test their embryos for things like IQ. - One of our embryos is in the 99.8 percentile or something completely insane for intelligence. We call him the champion. If you have parents selecting for the most of certain traits that they value, athleticism or intelligence or prosociality, you're going to see groups completely change in a short number of generations. - [Narrator] But bioethicists say there's a risk the technology could be used for discrimination. - This type of technique raises all sorts of ethical issues. So we know from the past that people have used this to discriminate, segregate, and even exterminate certain populations. This is the well-known negative eugenics movements. We have to be very careful when we sort of engage in this,

use this technology to make sure that we don't discriminate against big segments of the population. - [Narrator] Economists and demographers suggest other solutions. - I'm a very, very strong advocate of incredibly generous parental leaves financed by the federal government. I think the federal government should pay 12 months parental leave, both for the father and for the mother. - The Collins' don't believe the federal government should pay generous parental leave. They think workplaces should make it easier for women to work from home. And they say to move the needle on fertility, big cultural shifts will have to happen. - I think it's gonna be very hard to motivate above replacement fertility rates if you don't assign some degree of cultural status to the sacrifices that goes with motherhood. - [Narrator] Cultural changes can take time. But the Collins is say that having Musk and other Silicon Valley executives behind the cause helps get the word out. - I think one of the reasons why Silicon Valley's also

into Pronatalism is because it is one of the few areas and groups of people where people have the luxury of thinking in terms of the long term. When you look at venture capitalists, they're looking 10, 20, 50 years out often, and that's where you're going to start seeing the ramifications of demographic collapse. - [Narrator] Bioethicists say that's not necessarily a good thing. - But they're thinking so far ahead into the future that they're not thinking about the present. They're not thinking about who's gonna take care of these kids, whether they're gonna have proper education, whether they're gonna have healthcare, and so on and so forth. - [Narrator] And demographers say that sharply increased growth may not be a good thing either. - I'm not saying no, let's go back to the times that we have eight kids. I'm just saying, let's go back to the times

where people had two kids. So, what I basically want to do is to stabilize the population, or at least if we are going to have a decline, have a gentle decline over time, not a precipice. We don't want to fall through a cliff. (somber music)

Why Musk and Other Tech Execs Want as Many Babies as Possible | WSJ

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The Wall Street Journal

말콤과 시몬 콜린스는 출산율 저하와 이것이 경제와 정치에 미칠 잠재적 영향에 대해 우려하며 출산 장려를 위한 재단을 이끌고 있습니다.

이 운동은 출산 기술 개선에 주력하고 있는 엘론 머스크와 샘 앨트먼과 같은 기술 리더들의 지지를 받고 있습니다.

콜린스 재단도 상당한 기부금을 받아 실리콘 밸리와 태교주의 운동의 연관성을 강조하고 있습니다.

출산율 하락은 세계 경제 침체로 이어져 각국 정부가 공공 부채와 사회 보장 문제로 어려움을 겪을 수 있습니다.

일본과 같은 국가에서는 이미 낮은 출산율로 인해 사회보장제도의 축소를 고려하고 있습니다.

문화적 동질화, 높은 교육비 등의 요인이 출산율 감소에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 이로 인해 한 가정이 한두 명 이상의 자녀를 갖기 어려워지고 있습니다.

논란의 여지가 있는 가족 계획에서의 기술 사용

한 가족이 지능과 같은 원하는 형질을 가진 배아를 선택하기 위해 샘 알트먼의 지원을 받아 게놈 예측 기술을 사용하고 있습니다.

생명윤리학자들은 이러한 접근 방식이 윤리적 문제를 야기하고 차별을 초래할 수 있으며, 과거 우생학 운동과 유사하다고 경고합니다.

이 가족은 출산율 향상을 위해 직장의 유연성과 문화적 변화를 옹호하는 한편, 실리콘 밸리 경영진의 대의명분 홍보에 대한 영향력에 주목하고 있습니다.

태교주의는 수십 년 앞을 내다보는 벤처 캐피털리스트처럼 장기적인 관점에서 추진됩니다.

생명윤리학자들은 미래에 초점을 맞추다 보면 육아, 교육, 의료와 같은 현재의 문제를 소홀히 할 수 있다고 경고합니다.

인구학자들은 출산율의 급격한 감소보다는 점진적인 감소를 통해 인구를 안정화해야 한다고 주장합니다.