주식 시장 전망: 선거 영향과 채권 수익률

### 시장 역학 분석하기: 정치적 이벤트가 주식 및 채권 수익률에 미치는 영향
* 📈 주식과 자산 가격은 뉴스뿐만 아니라 포지션과 시장 심리에도 영향을 받으며, 이는 시장에서 잠재적인 **'청산 이벤트'**가 발생할 수 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 🗳 공화당 싹쓸이 또는 의회 교착 상태가 예상되며, 불확실성으로 인해 **후자가 주식 시장에 더 유리할 것**으로 전망됩니다.
* 💰 공화당이 의회를 휩쓸면 **50%의 법인세율이 적용될 수 있으며**, 이는 채권단으로부터 환영받지 못할 수 있어 재정 환경을 복잡하게 만들 수 있습니다.
* 📉 현재 시장은 성장에 대한 우려가 있는 경기 후행 사이클에 있어 **연준의 금리 결정이 증시에 매우 중요**합니다.
* ⚖ 다가오는 선거는 **재정 통합으로 이어져 시장 포지셔닝에 불확실성과 잠재적 변동성**을 야기할 수 있습니다.
* 🔍 '매그 세븐' 종목은 혼조세를 보였는데, 이는 **일부 업종이 호조**를 보이지만 전체 시장은 여전히 신중하고 **새로운 테마에 민감**하게 반응하고 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 📊 2016년과 비교하면 밸류에이션이 높고 경제가 덜 침체된 오늘날의 경제 환경이 달라져 **대선 이후 더 높은 배수를 정당화하기 어렵다**는 점을 알 수 있습니다.
* 🔄 전반적으로 트레이더들이 정치적 결과와 이것이 성장률과 금리에 미치는 영향을 탐색하면서 **큰 변동 가능성이 있는 보합 장세**가 예상됩니다.

시장은 불확실성 속에서 번창하며, 더 나은 성장 전망을 위해 공화당이 의회를 휩쓸기보다는 분열된 의회를 선호합니다.

Let's get into this, the parallels between now and 2016. How strong are they? They're not strong at all because, at the end of the day, the business cycle and earnings and also interest rates will determine kind of where stocks trade over the next year or two. And in 2016, as you recall, we went into that election with a lot of slack in the economy. Right. Things were slow. We had a manufacturing recession around the world. In 1516, the Fed was, you know, rates were pretty low. Generally, the economy, we had last slide from a labor standpoint. So it was, it could receive kind of a pro reflationary policy strategy. Today, we don't have that slack. So prices are extremely high. Consumers and small businesses are much more, I would say, sensitive to higher interest rates. So rising interest rates and kind of a pro cyclical strategy not going to be

good for those types of stocks. And I think also the bond market now is in a much different position where we have way more debt. As you mentioned earlier than 2016, we had plenty of slack in the borrowing markets today. We don't have that. Here's what doesn't make sense to me then about the Trump trade. If you get bond yields that climb, how can risk assets keep rallying? Well, I think it depends on why they're rallying. So I do think the equity markets are still nervous about growth concerns. I mean, labor markets all over the place. I mean, you can people can make excuses for why it's better or worse month to month. But the general trend in labor is down. We're in a late cycle economy, so the equity market is worried about growth slowing and that's why the Fed's cutting interest rates. Okay, so the bond market, I mean, the bond market, the market goes up because

growth is better, and people believe that. Then it could be okay for equities if bond market yields go up because term premium is widening because of fiscal sustainability issues. Then it's a problem. Well, I guess the reason why I ask this is because the Trump traders' knee-jerk reaction supposedly is bond yields go up and equities, particularly in the more cyclical sectors, and thinking of financials based on the idea that you're not necessarily getting some sort of economic impulse that's immediately overlaid onto the scenario. Why should risk assets continue to rally if yields continue to surge simply on this idea that the deficit's increasing and the bond vigilantes suddenly could be back? Well, I mean, first of all, the financials are a little bit different because that's a direct sort of call. And I do think that one's fairly visible. I think if you have a Trump presidency and maybe even a red sweep, you could get a more lenient regulatory environment.

maybe M&A picks up. That's kind of the financial trade, but that's unique and we don't think the financials have really rallied that much on that trade. It's been more about the third quarter earnings season and the fact that we went into that earnings season with not a lot of high expectations. So I think there is there's scope for further follow-through in certain, quote-unquote, Trump trades. At the same time, there's probably, you know, the other side, which is I think a lot of the negative trades have played out for the Trump trades. I mean, bonds have sold off probably too much, and the renewables and things like consumer goods companies will be hurt by tariffs have really been hammered. So if Harris wins, you could see a really a pretty big rebound in some markets. So there's a lot of permutations here. This is it's not as clear-cut. I think you said it exactly right.

It's all about the setup. Okay. Stocks and asset prices move based on positioning as much as they do about the actual news. I'm looking for a clearing event. Okay. I'm hoping this is a clearing event, and then we can kind of get back to doing what we get paid to do, which is analyze interest rates, earnings growth, and kind of multiples, trying to figure out, okay, what's the fundamental case here? And my guess is that could take maybe a month to kind of clear when it comes to a clearing event. Would you agree with Kit Jewkes that it's either likely going to be a Republican sweep or Harris with gridlock? Republican Senate? Yeah, I think that's probably, I mean, that's what the prediction markets say. Who am I to argue with that? And but there are, but it's not like it's a slam dunk. Okay. I think the more I think, but I do not

agree with the view that a Republican sweep is the best outcome for equities. I think it's probably Trump with a divided Congress. The Republican sweep means a 50% corporate tax rate. Potentially. Potentially, potentially. I mean, let's see if they can actually get that through. I mean, the bond vigilantes may come for them if they try to cut taxes in that sort of form or fashion. And they're not even talking about, they're talking about, at the margin, trying to reduce some taxes, maybe extending some certain things. I think the margins, the whole election has been a tax cut election. But I mean, I don't think that's priced it just like in 2016. Remember in 2016, nobody priced that bond cut until December of 17 when the Senate actually passed it. I mean, the whole year is like there's never going to happen.

It's never going to happen. I think the markets are they always wait for the actual evidence to to actually trade those types of events, particularly when it comes to Congress. You said the most beneficial Trump with divided government. Yeah. Can you explain that just a little bit more? Well, I mean, the markets like uncertainty. They don't want one party in power. I do think that a Trump we said this all Trump presidency is probably more pro-growth. Okay. Maybe not as good for for bonds. Harris would be probably a little less gross, but probably better for bonds. And that's been been our general view even prior to the last couple of weeks. And things have kind of traded through now at the margin, is it going to be dramatically better? I mean, I don't know. The markets are very price a lot. You know, I'm saying like that's the problem. We've already priced a lot of good news.

and let's just take a step back. Two, we're treating 20 almost 22 times earnings. Okay. And 20. 16, we were trading 16 and a half times earnings. You got five have multiple points of you know, we got to justify that no matter who wins this election. So we're just in a totally different set up going into this election. So AT&T, any of you want any research was on the program earlier this morning and essentially said to us choppy road to nowhere, flat market into year end. Do you share that view? Well, choppy meaning there could still be some big swings. I mean, maybe we end up flat from here to there, but there's going to be some big trading opportunities between here and there. I think we could see 6000 potentially, you know, in some sort of a clearing event that isn't now a lot of consternation if people feel good about things.

But then I think it's really hard for us to get past 66,060 100 in any scenario because then you're I mean, you're so stretched on valuation and I don't see growth accelerating in a kind of way which would justify even higher multiples for 2025. Can you explain what this clearing event for a month looks like? No, I can't. Okay. All right. Give us a sense of what that could mean. I mean, is it basically just whipsawing every single day or is it basically that you see one trade in particular that you could see really getting blown up during that period of time? Well, I could see many trades getting blown up, not just because of the election, but because, once again, we're very stressed. We're into the FOMO season and people need to perform in two months. There's a lot of things going on here. And so I could I could see a blow off

move of some kind post-election in a clearing event. But then reality sets in that we're going to have some kind of fiscal consolidation next year no matter who wins. And in my view, I think that has to happen and that, you know, that's going to create uncertainty again and then positioning gets kind of whipped around. The other thing that's going on is the Mag seven, which reported last week, was a very it was a mixed bag when I was you know, we've been more pro-cyclical. What I was worried about last week was that they would come in with such great results, they would suck all the oxygen out of the market again. So that didn't happen. But if we were to get a new thing, for example, let's say a new theme pops up, I can guarantee you this and is going to flock to that theme very quickly because that's that's what that's what we need

right now. We need something to get excited about. And we're kind of lacking in that. We're kind of lacking it, but something will happen. In other words, the market will find a new shiny toy, and it will move to that shiny toy. Right now, the Fed is not the shiny toy. We have barely mentioned the Fed's meeting on Thursday. How much does that matter to this entire equation? Isn't it Wednesday or Thursday? Thursday decision really moved it back. Yeah, I know. Yeah, but I mean but Wednesday is I mean they're meeting, they're meeting on Wednesday. Yeah they're meeting on Wednesday but decision are still meeting. They're going to know what happened I think anyway. Yeah. What do I think. I mean they, they don't have any, they don't have any crystal ball. They don't, I don't think the election is going to change their decision making. So right now, 25 basis points, Do they change yours?

I mean, look, I mean, even the day the Fed's on is somewhat on autopilot. Assuming we don't, the economy does take a really bad turn and get a cut even more rapidly. I think the trick for the equity market is going to be what's their tone? The dovish tone or hawkish tone is a hawkish cut or is it a dovish cut at that? But that's one or 2%. That's not a 10% move. And the Fed the Fed is kind of over here now. They're doing their thing. They made their decision. That was that was September. That was a shiny 20 September. But now we've kind of got off of that. And now it's about earnings. And then as we go in year and it's going to be how does 2025 settle in for the economy, for earnings growth, and where should multiples be based on how the

equity how the equity merger interpreting the move in bond yields?

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on Trump Trade, Fed, Earnings, S&P Call

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경기 사이클, 실적, 금리가 주식 거래에 중요한 역할을 하기 때문에 현재 경제 상황과 2016년의 유사성은 약합니다.

2016년과 달리 현재는 경기 침체가 없고 물가가 높고 금리 상승에 대한 민감도가 높아졌습니다.

현재 주가수익배수 22배는 2016년의 16.

5배에 비해 상당히 높은 수준으로 다가오는 선거를 대비한 투자 환경이 달라졌습니다.

시장 역학 관계와 트럼프 무역의 영향

발표자는 정체된 성장과 스트레스를 받는 시장으로 인해 특정 밸류에이션을 초과하는 것에 대해 회의적인 시각을 표명합니다.

또한 FOMO와 타이트한 차입 환경으로 인해 거래 폭락이 발생할 수 있는 청산 이벤트를 예상합니다.

연사는 채권 수익률과 위험자산의 복잡한 관계에 대해 설명하며, 주식 시장은 성장 둔화에 대해 불안해하는 반면 트럼프가 대통령이 되면 금융에 대한 규제 환경이 더 관대해질 수 있다고 말합니다.

현재 시장은 흥분이 부족하며 움직임을 주도할 새로운 "반짝이는 장난감"을 기다리고 있습니다.

연준의 회의와 의사결정은 시장 방향에 "큰 영향"을 미치지는 않을 것으로 예상됩니다.

트럼프 행정부와 관련된 특정 거래에서 잠재적인 후속 조치가 있을 수 있지만 전반적인 시장 역학 관계는 "복잡하고 불확실"합니다.

연준이 주식 시장에 미치는 영향과 향후 전망

연준의 결정은 현재 자동 조종 장치에 의해 결정되고 있으며, 연준의 기조가 주식 시장의 반응에 결정적인 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

기업 실적 성장과 2025년 대선의 경제적 영향이 앞으로의 주요 변수가 될 것입니다.

최근 매그 세븐 보고서의 엇갈린 결과와 새로운 시장 테마의 가능성은 불확실성을 야기할 수 있지만, 분열된 정부는 시장에 호재가 될 수 있습니다.

채권 수익률과 주식 합병 해석하기

주식과 자산 가격은 실제 뉴스만큼이나 포지셔닝에 영향을 받습니다.

청산 이벤트는 금리, 수익 성장률, 멀티플 분석에 다시 초점을 맞추는 데 도움이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

예측 시장에서는 공화당 싹쓸이 또는 교착 상태를 예상하고 있지만, 트럼프가 이끄는 의회 분열이 증시에 가장 좋은 결과일 수 있습니다.