마이클 버리의 중국 기술주에 대한 수익성 있는 베팅

### 경기 부양책 속에서 중국 기술주에 대한 마이클 버리의 전략적 베팅
* 💰 2008년 주택 버블을 예측한 것으로 유명한 마이클 버리는 최근 중국 기술주 투자로 **3개월 만에 1,370만 달러의 수익**을 올린 것으로 알려졌습니다.
* 📈 그가 보유한 주식은 **알리바바 155,000주, BYD 75,000주, JD 250,000주**이며, 단기간에 각각 **58.67%, 28.13%, 82.12%의 큰 가격 상승**을 기록했습니다.
* 📊 중국 증시의 전반적인 급등은 중국 공산당이 발표한 대규모 경기 부양책으로 인해 불과 2.5주 만에 **CSI 300 지수가 26% 상승**한 데 기인합니다.
* 🏗 이번 부양책은 부동산 개발업체의 대출을 제한하는 **3대 레드 라인 정책**으로 인해 심각한 어려움에 직면한 부동산 부문을 지원하기 위한 것입니다.
* 💵 최근 금리 인하, 주식에 대한 유동성 지원, 주요 도시의 주택 구매 제한 완화 등 **소비자 지출을 되살리고 주택 시장을 안정시키기 위한 정책 개입**이 이루어지고 있습니다.
* ⚖ 즉각적인 시장 반응은 긍정적이었지만, **부양책의 명확한 목표가 부족**하고 규제가 심한 환경에서 이러한 투자의 **장기적인 실행 가능성에 대한 우려**가 남아 있습니다.
* 🌍 현재 시장의 모멘텀에도 불구하고 **지정학적 리스크와 중국 주식의 구조**가 잠재적 어려움을 야기할 수 있으므로 투자자들은 신중한 자세를 유지하는 것이 좋습니다.

마이클 버리의 중국 기술주에 대한 전략적 베팅은 최근 정부 부양책으로 인한 시장 랠리 속에서 상당한 수익을 올렸습니다.

Well, it is highly likely that in the last couple of weeks, Michael Barry has made an absolute fortune. If you don't know Michael Barry, he was one of the few that accurately predicted the US housing bubble back before it all blew up in 2008. Overall, he made $100 million for himself and $700 million for his investors. This, of course, led him to be featured in Michael Lewis's book The Big Short, which, as we know, got adapted into a movie in 2015 with the same title, where Michael Barry was played by Christian Bale. Now, Michael Barry has been reasonably silent over the past year or two after deleting his Twitter account, but of course, we have been able to sneakily keep tabs on his stock portfolio through the 13F filings. Usually, with Michael Barry, you really can't take too much information out of them because he chops and changes a lot of positions from quarter to quarter. But interestingly, the only bet he's maintained over the past 2 years has been a big bet on the Chinese tech stocks. Have a look. It started back in Q4

2022 with Alibaba, Barara, and JD, and he's held those stocks since, plus adding I do more recently as well, and it's not hard to understand why Michael Bar, the value-minded investor, bought into these stocks. Have a look at the share prices over the past few years. Literally, all of these stocks were down very, very heavily off of their peaks back in 2021. Alibaba down 73%, JD and Buu down about 75%, and as we know, this led not only Michael Bar but also a lot of other value investors to buy into these big Behemoth Chinese tech stocks for what you get in terms of, say, price to free cash flow. All these businesses were trading cheap, big-quality Chinese firms at rock-bottom prices, and well, today their bets are paying off big time. As over the past few weeks, their share prices have been absolutely soaring. I kid you not, over the last 2 and 1/2 weeks, Buu shares have jumped 30%, Alibaba shares have jumped 35%, and JD shares have now jumped

a whopping 75%. Now, if we look at the last available data from Michael Bar's 13f, we can see that at the end of Q2, he held 155,000 Alibaba shares, 75,000 Buu shares, and 250,000 JD shares. At that time, the respective position sizes were $11.2 million for Alibaba and $6.5 million each for JD and Buu. However, look at the share price gains from that point until now: Barber +58.67%, Buu +28.13%, and JD +82.12%. So, overall, assuming he's held the shares until now, which isn't a certainty but is reasonably likely, he's made an easy $6.5 million on Alibaba, $1.8 million on Buu, and $5.3 million on JD. He's turned a $24.1 million position into $37.8 million in the space of 3 months, overall a $13.7 million gain, so not too shabby. Now again

I do have to caveat that this is making an assumption that he still holds the same number of shares in each company as he did at the end of Q2, which may not be exactly the case, but I do think it's reasonably probable that he still held a large position in the Chinese tech stocks, considering he has kept that bet running since Q4 of 2022. But then the next question, well, why on Earth are the Chinese tech stocks on a massive rally? Because it's not just Michael Burry's three picks in Alibaba, BYD, and JD. In fact, if we turn to the CSI 300 index, which is the predominant Blue Chip index for mainland China stock exchanges, which tracks both Shanghai and Shenzhen, we can see that the index has risen a staggering 26% in 2 and 1/2 weeks. So, it really is the whole Chinese stock market. And the reason for that is stimulus, baby, massive amounts of stimulus announced from Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. If you haven't been

following the situation over in China, they really have been struggling with their economy over the past year or two, and there's really two key reasons for that. The first reason stems from their real estate sector. So, in 2020, the CCP was getting concerned about the sheer amount of debt that was funding their, you know, decades-long property boom. So, they implemented the three red lines policy. For those interested, the three red lines are that, number one, the company's liabilities can't be more than 70% of its total assets. Then, secondly, the company's debts can't be more than its equity. And then finally, the company needs to have enough cash to pay off 100% of its short-term debt. And, you know, these all seem like reasonable rules, but just a year after they were implemented, it turns out actually 2/3 of Chinese property developers were in breach of at least one of the three red lines. Now, that causes heaps of real estate projects to falter because now they can't get the funding to continue ever. China's second-largest property

developer completely collapses. House prices start falling, and that takes a toll on Chinese citizens because 90% of people own their own home in China versus around 65% in the United States. And because of this decades-long ethos to just invest in residential property, around 70% of household wealth in China is tied up in real estate. So, with new home prices and prices of pre-existing homes both falling fast, Chinese citizens are seeing their wealth get eroded before their eyes. And this makes them cut back on spending in a major way. But then, just to add insult to injury, when China goes through its massively restrictive COVID lockdowns, the CCP was very hesitant to implement any major form of stimulus. Essentially, they told citizens to eat a spoonful of cement and harden up, whereas most western economies, as we know, did implement stimulus measures, which came with other problems, but it did help out their citizens. So, long story short, what this leads to over in China is a real estate sector in massive decline, which is one of the key pillars of the Chinese

economy. Citizens have to massively tighten the belt. Chinese businesses make way less money, and thus stock prices in China fall a very long way. And all the meanwhile, the CCP refuses to do anything meaningful to help. That was until a week and a half ago, because yes, a week and a half ago, China's Central Bank unveiled a truly massive plan to completely and utterly support their real estate sector and their stock market. In fact, as reported by Bloomberg, there were no fewer than 15 different stimulus measures being implemented across monetary policy, real estate financing, and interestingly to investors, stimulus for Chinese stocks. And I won't go through each scheme individually, but if I had to summarize all the major measures China is taking, the main ones are interest rate cuts, freeing up cash for banks to lend, that's by lowering reserve requirements, and then liquidity support for stocks. Also of note, four major cities being Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also eased home buying curbs, including lowering deposit requirements. And finally, the Central

Bank moved to lower mortgage rates to help homeowners. So, most of the measures are targeted at boosting their real estate sector, which really is the heart of the economic troubles in China, by lowering interest rates, lowering bank reserve requirements, and also lowering deposit requirements for home buyers. These measures should all work to encourage people to buy homes and take on mortgages, which they're then hoping will revive sales and thus reverse the downturn in home prices. And then, hopefully, that has a flowing effect into helping the wealth of the Chinese consumer rise, which hopefully will bring back a level of normalcy to their spending behaviors, which in turn will help Chinese businesses. So, that's one of the reasons investors in stocks are getting excited. But beyond that, the CCP did also announce specific measures that will directly benefit big Chinese companies. As reported by Bloomberg, the CCP announced a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds, and insurance companies to tap People's Bank of China money to purchase equities. This would be worth an initial 500 billion yuan, which is $71 billion, with a possible ceiling.

of three times that. They also announced a relending facility for listed companies and major shareholders to take on loans to buy back their own shares and raise their holdings. So, this will be worth an initial 300 billion yuan, with a possible ceiling of 900 billion yuan. And then finally, there were discussions of some sort of stabilization fund, although there are no more details on that at the current time. So, overall, this is set to initially provide at least 800 billion yuan, or $113 billion, of direct liquidity support. And without getting too into the weeds, I think you can understand why these announcements have triggered a massive reversal in short-term sentiment around Chinese stocks. Until a few weeks ago, investors had just about given up hope that the CCP was going to help stimulate this economic rebound and support massive tech behemoths. And now they've walked in with the stimulus bazooka. So, no doubt, this is a huge positive sign for investors, and accordingly, the short-term prices of all Chinese stocks have been rocketing up, which has made people like

our friend Michael Barry a lot of short-term money, but there are also a few things that investors should consider in relation to this stimulus, the first of which is we obviously have not yet seen the results of it yet. We don't know how much these measures are going to help. Now yes, the implementation of all these stimulus measures will have a good impact on both the real estate sector and businesses in general. I'm not disputing that, but we have no idea as to the size of that benefit yet. So while in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine, remember that in the long run, it is a weighing machine, and the long-term price movements of these big Chinese businesses will ultimately depend on their business performance, not just the announcement of some stimulus measures. Secondly, I should point out that this stimulus bonanza by the CCP has been fairly criticized for not actually having much of a defined goal. For example, with the Federal Reserve, right, every single time Jerome Powell speaks, he opens with the Fed's goal of promoting maximum employment while

ensuring price stability and trying to get inflation back down to the long-term target of 2%. It is crystal clear what they're trying to do, but in the case of the CCP stimulus, there really hasn't been a specific and measurable goal that they've been working towards. In fact, the only stated goal by the Politburo was to make the real estate market stop declining. As the author of this Bloomberg article rightly notes, did the highest decision-making body mean for a month, a year, or forever, and how will that be measured? We do have earlier confirmation that the CCP is looking to target a 2024 GDP growth rate of 5%, but beyond that, it's hard to find specific and measurable goals of this stimulus package from the CCP. And then finally, I also wanted to remind prospective investors in Chinese businesses that while it may seem like a great momentum trade to get in on right now, there are still some risks around holding Chinese equities. I spoke more about this in my recent video with Matt Peterson, which

I'll link up on screen, but as a quick summary, you do have to remember that you're investing in a system that is heavily controlled by the government. There's geopolitical risks when investing in China from America or other Western countries, and also the structure of holding Chinese shares through offshore variable interest entities does have some risk attached to it in and of itself. But overall, that is the lowdown on Michael Bar's short-term win on the Chinese tech stocks. Just quickly before I sign off, if you liked the video, I would really, really appreciate it if you gave it a like, and also please subscribe. We're really hoping to make it to 1 million subscribers, hopefully sometime this year or next, and hitting the Subscribe button really does mean more to us than you can imagine. Furthermore, if you did want to support the channel financially and get access to some really awesome professionally edited investing courses teaching you about both passive investing or Warren Buffett style stock analysis, please do check out new money education linked in the description and the pinned comment. But guys

with that said, thank you all very much for watching, and I'll see you guys in the next video. [Music] [Music]

Michael Burry's Biggest Bet Just Made Him a Fortune

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중국 기술주에 대한 마이클 배리의 수익성 높은 베팅

미국 주택 버블을 예측한 것으로 유명한 마이클 배리는 최근 몇 주 동안 중국 기술주에 꾸준히 투자하여 큰 돈을 벌었습니다.

그는 2022년 4분기에 알리바바, 부우, JD를 매수하기 시작했고, 이후 주가가 급등하면서 배리는 상당한 수익을 올렸습니다.

알리바바 주식 155,000주, Buu 주식 75,000주, JD 주식 250,000주를 보유함으로써 2,410만 달러의 포지션을 불과 3개월 만에 3,780만 달러로 전환하여 1,370만 달러의 수익을 올렸습니다.

마이클 버리는 시진핑과 중국 공산당의 대규모 부양책에 힘입어 최근 2.

5주 동안 26% 상승한 중국 기술주에서 여전히 큰 포지션을 보유하고 있을 가능성이 높습니다.

이 랠리는 주로 부동산 부문의 부채 문제와 제한적인 코로나19 봉쇄 조치의 영향으로 인해 어려움을 겪고 있는 중국 경제에 대한 대응책입니다.

부동산 부문의 하락은 가계 자산을 약화시키고 소비자 지출을 감소시켜 정부의 대대적인 개입이 필요하게 되었습니다.

경제 부흥을 위한 중국의 대규모 경기 부양책

중국 경제가 어려움을 겪으면서 주가가 하락하고 중국 공산당의 의미 있는 지원책이 나오지 않고 있습니다.

최근 중국 중앙은행은 금리 인하와 유동성 지원 등 부동산 부문과 주식 시장을 지원하기 위한 15가지 조치를 포함한 대규모 경기 부양책을 발표했습니다.

이 계획은 주택 구매를 촉진하고 판매를 되살리며 궁극적으로 경제를 안정시켜 중국 주식과 투자 심리에 상당한 긍정적 영향을 미치는 것을 목표로 합니다.

경기 부양책 속에서 중국 비즈니스에 투자할 때 고려해야 할 사항

중국의 경기 부양책이 경제와 주식 시장에 미치는 영향은 아직 불확실하며, 장기적인 기업 실적이 가격 변동의 주요 요인입니다.

중국 정부의 부양책은 명확하고 측정 가능한 목표가 부족해 효과를 가늠하기 어렵다는 비판을 받아왔습니다.

현재의 모멘텀은 중국 주식 투자에 매력적으로 보일 수 있지만, 여전히 내재된 위험이 존재합니다.

중국 기술주 투자하기: 주요 고려 사항

중국 기술주에 투자하는 것은 서구 투자자에게는 정부의 통제와 지정학적 위험을 수반합니다.

역외 법인을 통해 중국 주식을 보유하는 구조 또한 내재적인 위험을 수반합니다.

이 스피커는 시청자가 채널을 '좋아요'를 누르고 구독하여 더 많은 콘텐츠를 보도록 권장하고, 재정적 지원을 위해 전문적으로 편집된 투자 강좌를 제공합니다.