한국 부동산 시장 최근 동향과 오해의 소지가 있는 통계

### 한국 부동산 시장의 최근 동향과 우려 사항
* 🏠 이번 주 토요일에 방송되는 아포유는 현재 진행 중인 휴가철을 맞아 부동산에 대한 적극적인 관심에도 불구하고 **시청자 참여가 저조한 상황**입니다.
* 📈 부동산 시장은 **70개월 만에 보기 드문 급등세**를 보이고 있지만, 일부 지역의 가격 상승이 시장 전반을 반영하지 못하는 등 전반적인 체감지수는 여전히 낮은 수준입니다.
* 📊 6월 부동산 가격의 월평균 상승률은 **0.68%**로 7월에는 **1%를 넘어설 것**으로 예상되지만, 6월 거래량이 **7,252건**으로 증가했고 7월에는 **약 9,000건**에 달할 것으로 예상되는 만큼 시장 분위기가 호조를 보이고 있다고 보기는 어렵습니다.
* 🔍 2021년과 비교해보면 거래량은 증가했지만, 그해 5월과 6월에 각각 **1.73%와 1.46% 증가**했던 것에 비해 현재 가격 상승폭은 크지 않은 것으로 나타났습니다.
* 🏢 현재 전세 매물이 감소하면서 **전세 가격이 치솟고** 있고, 많은 집주인이 **전세를 월세로 전환**하고 있어 세입자의 부담이 커지고 있습니다.
* 📉 정부가 조작된 통계에 의존하면서 시장에 대한 왜곡된 시각이 형성되고 있으며, 많은 주택 소유자들은 **시장 급등이 자신의 재산 가치로 이어지지 않자 상대적 박탈감**을 느끼고 있습니다.
* 🗣 방송은 투기세력의 부재로 인해 임대 매물이 급격히 감소하고 임대료 상승이 우려되는 상황에서 **정부의 부동산 정책과 기초 데이터에 대한 비판적 검토**가 필요하다고 강조합니다.
* ⚠ 연사는 부동산 시장의 실태에 대한 대중의 인식 제고와 토론을 촉구하며 **현재 문제가 이전 정부에서 구축한 결함 있는 시스템**에서 비롯된 것임을 강조하며 마무리합니다.

한국 부동산 시장의 급등은 주택 소유주들의 더 깊은 절망감을 가리는 오해의 소지가 있습니다.

Hello, nice to meet you. Today, we are conducting the Apoyou broadcast on the weekend. It is Saturday, and since it is the vacation season, the response is not very good. People are on vacation, so who is interested in real estate? However, it seems that there are still quite a few people actively looking for homes to purchase. Hello to everyone, including Buknam, Agari, Jo Jung-hyun, Pun, PY, and Sing-sing. Today’s broadcast is originally intended for members only, but we will be broadcasting it publicly for everyone. There are discussions about the real estate market experiencing a significant surge, the likes of which we haven't seen in 70 months. Regarding this matter, there are certainly forces that are obscuring your view and understanding. If you have watched the previous two broadcasts, you will have a good understanding of this.

Currently, the real estate market is experiencing a sudden surge in prices, but in contrast to the articles about this phenomenon, the actual sentiment in the market is surprisingly not that high. While there are significant price increases in specific complexes and certain areas, it doesn't feel like this is the case for the market as a whole. The trading volume is certainly increasing, but the overall sentiment is lower than expected. I will clarify this point today.

Oh, hello, Nitro! It's been a while since you came by, and you still look so young. Oh, I'm really blushing from that compliment! I know that comments about looking older can be quite hurtful, and it seems like you intentionally left that in the comment section. Thank you, thank you! My face is all red now. Anyway, putting that aside, just a moment—it's still hot even though I turned on the air conditioner.

Well, anyway, the current market situation, in relation to trading volume, is actually not as hot as one might think. Yes, there is a surge and a rebound happening, but the market isn't as heated as expected. The trading volume has indeed exploded, but why am I saying this? Currently, the market situation shows the largest increase in 70 months in the Korean real estate sector, which has been heavily promoted in the media. However, the reality is completely different. To show you what is actually happening in the real estate market, let's look at the data: in June, the average monthly increase was 0.68%, and in July, it will probably exceed a 1% increase.

It seems to be on the rise, but based on what has been built so far, there's an increase of 0.67. The reason I want to show you the current increase is that it's the largest increase in 70 months. If you look at the actual transaction volume, as of June, it stands at 7,252. Well, we should consider that June is almost complete. The Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza includes all canceled transactions in its calculation, so it seems to show a transaction volume exceeding 7,400. Currently, the transaction volume on the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza has surpassed 700 cases. Moreover, there are reports that the transaction volume for July has exceeded 5,000 cases. According to estimates, the transaction volume for July is expected to rise to around 9,000 cases. As for June, the transaction volume is expected to be around 7,300. Well, anyway...

Anyway, regarding the current market situation, we are seeing an increase of 0.68 and 0.67, and it seems that it will exceed a 1% increase. However, the extent of the increase is surprisingly not being felt significantly in the market. I want to clearly communicate to you that, after a significant rise in the market in the last 70 months, the trading volume has indeed increased a lot, but compared to the increases in 2021, the current rise is considerably modest. Even compared to just three years ago, in 2021, the increase is not at a notably high level. To illustrate this point, I have brought up the increases from 2021. In May and June 2021, the increase was 1.73% in May and 1.46% in June. What I am showing you now is the actual trading increases from May to July 2021, where in July, Seoul saw a 1.78% increase.

It was the market of 2021. However, the current trading volume is much higher compared to the trading volumes of May 2021, which was 4,800 won, June at 3,900 won, and July at 4,600 won. Despite this increase in trading volume, the upward trend is actually significantly lower than in 2021. Now, this situation reflects how the Korean real estate market has shown results that do not make sense, such as a maximum increase in 70 months due to statistical manipulation during the 2021 period. To show more details, if we look at Seoul by region, there are currently places in Seoul where the increase is over 1%. This is true for both June and July, with July expected to show even more significant increases. Looking at the increase from June and July, we can see that the actual increase of over 1% is quite substantial. May did not show such a significant increase.

It was not high, and when looking at each district in Seoul, the actual increase will show you an increase of 5.67% in May 2021. Currently, the increase in Seoul for July, June, and May, as well as the increases in May, June, and July of 2021, can be observed. If you take a look, this is the increase from May to July 2021. Should I zoom in a bit more? The increase from May to July 2021 shows that in the hottest areas, the increase exceeded 2%. I apologize for the typo; it was indeed an increase in 2021. In the hottest regions, particularly in Nodogang, the increase was above 2%. However, it is surprising to see that the increase during May to July 2021 cannot be compared to the current increase. For those of you who experienced the market in 2021, you might feel the same way.

You will know that the current rise has surpassed the rise in 2021. Right now, the increase is not as serious as it was in 2021, where it was around 56 or 57. The increase is not that high at the moment. And hold on a second. In 2021, there were no areas that experienced a decline; there was not a single place with a negative change, from Gangnam to Nodogang and Jungnang-gu. In 2021, there was no area that saw a drop. Now, if we look at 2023, in July, we see a decline in some areas. The actual transaction data shows that Guro-gu and Geumcheon-gu had increases of 0.07 and 0.12, respectively. Now, in July, Geumcheon-gu had shown a decline up until June. However, in 2021, if we look at Geumcheon, it had an increase of over 2%. It's really unbelievable how things have changed since 2021.

Oh, it's been a rise after 70 months and a rise after 5 years and 10 months. But the media is just taking all of that down. And the Yoon Seok-yeol administration should diagnose the rises and falls based on national statistics. When you look at it, the rise in 2021 was even more severe. The real estate market is crazy; there's a surge happening. Meanwhile, people are saying that the rise in real estate is more serious than expected, and it's causing quite a stir. For those who truly understand the real estate market and are accurately observing the situation, it’s really an absurd situation. That's why I'm excited and continuously posting broadcasts. Yes, there is indeed a rise, and it's a rapid recovery, but it's a rise that cannot be compared to previous ones. So, if you go to my channel and look at my recent videos, you’ll see that I’ve been doing live broadcasts.

I have been continuously posting videos criticizing the current state of the Korean real estate market. We cannot let ourselves be fooled any longer. Even now, the presidential office has no choice but to rely on the statistics from the Korea Real Estate Agency, which shows how completely we are being deceived by the Korean real estate situation. Last Friday, I mentioned in a broadcast that if President Yoon Seok-yeol continues to neglect the real estate issue, the next administration will fall into their hands. The statistics are completely unreliable, and if we base our national real estate policies on such flawed data, what will happen? The country is in turmoil, and if President Yoon Seok-yeol continues to ignore the Korea Real Estate Agency, the next administration will end up in their hands. Those who have seen this video will understand why there is such urgency and agitation, and the speculators who wished for a crash are now disappearing.

The arrival of a clean real estate market is incredible. Right now, the situation is not one where we should be tied down by rising sales prices. The availability of rental properties is rapidly decreasing. As a result, rental prices are skyrocketing, and we are facing a seriously concerning situation. In a complex with over 4,000 units, there have been no rental listings for the last three months. Comparing this to two years ago, there used to be four or five rental transactions in these complexes, but now rental transactions are disappearing. What does this mean? Why have rental listings suddenly started to vanish? For those who have watched the previous two videos, your understanding of this video should be quite high, as rental listings are indeed disappearing. I have also provided clear reasons for the disappearance of rental listings.

What does it mean that the rental properties for jeonse are disappearing? It means that gap investors are not entering the market. Additionally, those who previously had jeonse properties have either sold their homes or converted them to monthly rentals. Consequently, the burden of monthly rent is significantly increasing in the South Korean real estate market, and the rental burden rate is quite high right now. This has led to a continuous surge in monthly rent prices. Currently, there is a rapid shift towards monthly rentals, with security deposits for monthly rentals increasing sharply while the rental amounts are slightly decreasing. This indicates that landlords who previously offered jeonse are converting to monthly rentals on their own. As a result, the proportion of half-jeonse rentals is also rising rapidly. This is the market situation we are seeing in June and July. By the way, the increase rate of real estate prices in Seoul is astonishing.

You mentioned that in the case of Seoul's housing market, it seems likely that the upward trend will return to previous levels. In Songpa District, there may be a resurgence of an increase in the 2% range, and in Seongdong District, a similar increase is also quite possible. Regarding the market in July, just a moment... it seems I need to enlarge the window. Anyway, it appears that the rate of increase will be quite steep regionally in July. However, when comparing the overall market to 2021, it's really difficult. In May to July 2021, areas that were overlooked, such as Geumcheon-gu and Guro-gu, experienced increases in the 2% range. Currently, we are seeing a similar situation in Nodogang, where an increase in the 2% range is also occurring. This was the situation back in May 2021.

In July, how does the current market compare? Right now, in Gangbuk and Dobong, prices are still declining. Yes, that's correct. You mentioned that in Gwacheon, the monthly increase in July is 2%, which is quite significant. However, some major complexes are indeed experiencing sharp increases, but overall, the market is not showing such drastic rises. When we look at the entire market, the increase is significantly lower compared to the situation in 2021, and this is an undeniable fact. So, what is the current situation? There are many complexes that have started to rebound. Among the apartment complexes in Seoul, over 70% are just beginning to stabilize and show signs of recovery, with increases of about 5% to 10%, as you mentioned.

There has been an increase of over 2%, but this is being generalized to suggest that the entire market is experiencing a rapid surge. As a result, the presidential office has come forward to discuss the serious situation of this surge. If they announce policies based on this, homeowners who are just beginning to see a rebound will feel a relative deprivation. The Yoon Seok-yeol administration is once again announcing regulatory policies that could lead to a significant drop in transaction volume, causing property values to fall again. This situation is being created. The country is really in a mess due to these manipulated statistics. Many people have a low interest in the statistical manipulation of the Korean real estate market. Currently, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is developing real estate policies based on these manipulated statistics, which is a serious situation. This manipulation of statistics is a concern.

The public's interest is so low that it seems we are being affected by invisible forces, while visible forces dominate the South Korean real estate market. As a result, apartment complexes that are just beginning to rebound, which account for nearly 70% of the units in Seoul, will likely fall into despair again. It’s misleading to portray the situation as if the entire market is surging due to a 5% increase in certain areas, which only exacerbates the feelings of relative deprivation for homeowners who see their own properties not appreciating in value. The Korean Real Estate Agency is currently creating this situation, and it is truly serious. You mentioned that the feelings of relative deprivation are only getting worse, and I can only agree; it brings me to tears to think about the current state of affairs. Your words are absolutely correct.

The current issue regarding jeonse (a type of lease in South Korea) is indeed significant. While I mentioned that the rapid increase in jeonse prices would likely decrease starting from the fourth quarter of this year, it could become a major social issue again in the process leading into next year. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is some supply of new housing in the Seoul and Gyeonggi areas, but the situation may become more challenging next year. 

So, what kind of policies should be implemented? The president's recognition that speculation is serious is, frankly, completely off the mark—it's far too disconnected from reality. The current market problem is that speculators have disappeared. The issue is that there are no longer speculators who can purchase homes that are already being lived in and convert them into rental properties.

The problem is that these speculators have disappeared, yet there are still people selling houses. The speculators are the ones selling, and it is those who shout speculation who are speaking from that perspective. Speculators are still selling houses, and those houses are being lived in by actual residents, making it impossible to rent them out. As a result, the properties that were once available for rent are rapidly decreasing, leading to a sharp increase in rental prices. Currently, there is not a significant surge in the index; rather, we are witnessing a process where rental transactions are disappearing. The rapid influx of investor properties into the market has resulted in serious side effects, with rental prices skyrocketing to a very serious situation. There are repeated warnings from the presidential office that the sharp increase in real estate prices is a grave concern. This is absurd; the problem is not the skyrocketing real estate prices. A mere 5% market surge is not the issue.

It is a natural occurrence that has always been present. The way the Korean real estate market has been portrayed as if it were a nationwide boom is truly misleading. It deceives the public, the president, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. It is evident that the incorrect statistics will ultimately lead the real estate market into even more chaos and confusion. 

Now, regarding these issues, even the director has noted that there are indeed very few rental properties available. It is quite alarming that in a complex with 4,000 units, the number of rental listings has not just decreased by 10% or 20%, but is actually heading towards extinction. You mentioned that it would be helpful if you could create a series to convey data in a way that makes it easy for the Ministry of Land to understand that their data is incorrect. However, it is not an easy task.

It's not easy. Right now, when it comes to this part, we have to talk about numbers anyway, so it's really not simple. On top of that, the broadcasts on Apoyu are suffering from a lack of popularity. The exposure for videos that criticize the current situation has dropped to a serious extent, making it really difficult. The broadcast itself is quite tough. The decrease in exposure is essentially destroying my channel while I'm trying to broadcast. In fact, if I cover topics that are surging or skyrocketing, the view counts tend to be much higher. However, when I approach these fundamental issues, people's interest is alarmingly low. So, while I'm doing this broadcast, I often feel a strong sense of self-doubt. I wonder what difference it makes that I'm talking alone.

There is a lot to discuss. Now, regarding the current market situation, you mentioned that the President, as the final decision-maker, has made incorrect judgments. I want to clarify this. The national statistical agency is producing misleading statistical data to deceive the President. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has established a system in South Korea's real estate sector that is fundamentally flawed. They cannot even mention anything related to real estate statistics without facing legal repercussions. The current situation regarding South Korean real estate is entirely chaotic due to the system established during the Moon Jae-in administration. Correcting this issue is incredibly difficult. Just changing one president will not resolve everything in South Korea.

Many people are interested in real estate, and these issues need to be highlighted one by one so that more people can discuss the serious situation we are currently facing. If the media starts to cover these issues, then we could completely dismantle the Korean real estate market. However, right now, interest levels are too low. It seems that the Korean real estate statistics agency is correct; it may not be appropriate for a mere YouTuber to raise such concerns. People still think that way. Additionally, Mr. Shin Myung-ja mentioned that it seems like the YouTube channels advocating for a market crash are gaining popularity. I don't know; ultimately, this is a form of incitement. They only tell people what they want to hear, and as a result, people are swayed, leading to the current state of the real estate market. This has resulted in a rapid decrease in landlords and a surge in the rental market, which is now in a preliminary stage.

What is being created is still influenced by the forces that incite unrest, and the voices of the citizens who are being incited are always raised by those who express dissatisfaction. However, the majority of the people are overwhelmingly quiet rather than voicing complaints. The voices of those who advocate for a collapse are the loudest, which is why their perspectives are reflected in government policies. This was the case with the Moon Jae-in administration's real estate policies, which have now been inherited and are continuing under the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Therefore, when I see people criticizing President Yoon Seok-yeol, I want to return the question: what is so important? What is the issue? Is Yoon Seok-yeol the problem? No, the problem lies in the broken system created by the previous Moon Jae-in administration.

I want to emphasize that we need to recognize this immediately. As the Gangnam real estate study group mentioned, I also feel a sense of despair as a participant. Alizwell also pointed out that due to the rising sales prices, the rental prices seem to be buried. It is true that sales prices are currently rising. There has been a sharp increase, and what does a 2% surge even mean? Right now, in Yongsan, a property was traded for over 20 billion won. So what percentage increase is that? Even if we consider a monthly increase, it's about a 5% rise. Given the current situation, the increase in housing prices is occurring in certain areas. If we look at the entire market, about 70% of apartments are still at the bottom level and are just starting to rebound, but the fluctuation in real estate prices is severe. Ultimately, this relative sense of deprivation only heightens the feeling of despair.

As a result, it is bound to create a situation where directives against the current government are completely shattered. When I think about these aspects, I believe this is thoroughly planned. The leftist forces have created a system, and even though many people claim that we are still under a right-wing government, we are still being toyed with in this situation. To change this system, more people need to recognize the current reality. 

Anyway, this broadcast is being conducted with the breakdown of the broadcast. Today, we will slowly proceed with Abru News right after this broadcast ends. Although I prepared for Abru News, the current situation regarding the Korean real estate market is truly concerning.

I am frustrated with the current government, which is being manipulated and unable to overcome the miserable reality that their policy directions are based on data created by these individuals. I wanted to share my feelings in this broadcast. After this broadcast, starting at 9 PM, it seems that a few important news items came out yesterday and the day before. I will convey those related details to you. Anyway, I will conclude the first part of today's broadcast here, and I will see you again at 9 PM on Abu News. Thank you.

70개월만에 최대폭 상승?  거짓이 진실로 받아들여지는 나라...

AforU 아포유

부동산 시장이 70개월 만에 최대 상승폭을 기록하며 가격이 급등하고 있지만, 전반적인 체감경기는 의외로 낮습니다.

거래량은 증가하고 있지만 시장의 열기는 예상만큼 강렬하지 않습니다.

현재 가격 상승률과 거래량은 2021년 최고치에 비해 완만한 수준입니다.

국내 부동산 시장의 거래량은 2021년 5월 이후 증가했지만, 상승세는 그해에 비해 크지 않습니다.

서울의 경우 일부 지역은 6월과 7월에 1% 이상의 상승률을 보이고 있으며, 가장 뜨거운 지역은 2021년에 2% 이상의 상승률을 기록하기도 했습니다.

하지만 2021년과 달리 2023년에는 일부 지역에서 하락세를 보이고 있어 부동산 통계의 신뢰성과 국가 정책에 미치는 영향에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

전세 매물의 공급이 급격히 줄어들면서 전세 가격이 치솟고 있어 우려스러운 상황입니다.

전세 매물이 사라지는 이유는 갭투자자들이 시장에 진입하지 않고 집주인들이 전세를 월세로 전환하기 때문입니다.

서울 부동산 시장은 가파른 가격 상승세를 보이고 있으며, 70% 이상의 아파트 단지가 안정화 및 회복 조짐을 보이고 있습니다.

조작된 통계가 한국 부동산 시장에 미치는 영향

부동산 시장이 급등하면서 정부의 개입과 규제 정책으로 이어질 수 있다는 주장이 제기되고 있습니다.

이러한 통계 조작은 주택 소유주들의 상대적 박탈감을 불러일으키고 있으며, 서울 아파트값 반등에 차질을 빚을 것으로 예상됩니다.

진짜 문제는 부동산 시장의 급등보다는 투기세력이 사라지면서 전세 매물이 감소하고 전셋값이 급등하는 데 있다.

한국 부동산 시장에 대한 오해의 소지가 있는 묘사

한국 부동산 시장이 전국적으로 호황을 누리고 있다는 잘못된 통계가 혼란과 혼란을 야기하고 있습니다.

매물이 크게 감소하고 있으며 일부 단지는 매물 멸종 위기에 직면해 있습니다.

문재인 정부에서 만들어진 잘못된 제도와 통계청의 잘못된 자료가 현재의 혼란스러운 상황을 초래한 주요 원인이며, 문제 해결을 어렵게 만들고 있습니다.

이전 행정부가 현재 부동산 문제에 미친 영향

집값 폭락을 주장하는 목소리가 정부 정책에 영향을 미쳤고, 현 정부는 전 정부의 부동산 정책을 그대로 계승하고 있습니다.

특정 지역의 집값은 급등하고 있지만, 약 70%의 아파트는 여전히 하위권에 머물러 있어 상대적 박탈감이 커지고 있습니다.

발제자는 제도를 바꾸기 위해서는 더 많은 사람들이 현실을 인식해야 한다고 강조하며, 어려운 상황을 극복하지 못하는 정부에 대한 답답함을 토로합니다.