힌덴부르크 징조: NASDAQ 100의 시장 신호 및 실적

### 힌덴부르크 징조: 2024년에 촉발된 나스닥 100의 치명적인 시장 신호
* 🔔 1937년에 개발된 시장 신호인 힌덴버그 오멘은 **1987년, 1999년, 2017년, 2021년 등 NASDAQ 100의 중요한 고점**을 정확하게 알려준 인상적인 기록을 가지고 있습니다.
* 📉 이 신호는 주식 시장 전체가 상승 추세를 보이는 가운데 **지수 내 많은 종목이 연저점을 경신**할 때 발동되며, 이는 근본적인 약세를 나타냅니다.
* 📈 2023년 1월 이후 S&P 500 지수는 **40% 상승**했지만, 대형 기술 기업의 막대한 기여도를 제거한 지수는 **15% 상승**하는 데 그쳤습니다.
* 🕰 힌덴부르크 신호는 종종 대규모 시장 조정 전에 발생하지만 실제 정점 시기는 다를 수 있습니다. **2007년에는 6월에 현재와 같은 강도에 도달**했지만 시장은 **12월에 정점**을 찍었습니다.
* 👀 신호가 계속 강세를 보인다면 **2000년과 2008년의 대규모 폭락 이전의 상황**과 비슷해지기 시작할 수 있습니다.
* 📉 역사를 더 거슬러 올라가면 **힌덴부르크 신호는 완벽한 실적**을 가지고 있지는 않습니다. **1997년에 신호가 발생**했고, 그 후 2년 동안 **나스닥 100 지수가 상승**했습니다.
* 📈 이러한 경고 신호에도 불구하고 **S&P 500 지수는 2024년에도 여전히 강세 기술 구조**에 있습니다.

100년의 역사를 가진 힌덴부르크 징조는 NASDAQ 100에서 번쩍이며 잠재적인 시장 약세를 나타냅니다.

one of the most deadly market signals has just triggered on a major stock market index: the NASDAQ 100. The name that this signal has is even quite scary. It's something called the Hindenburg Omen, and unlike many market signals that are out there, it has a very impressive track record. It precisely signaled important peaks on the NASDAQ 100 like 1987, 1999, 2017, and 2021. The Hindenburg Omen is a signal that was developed in 1937, so we have almost 100 years of data to understand how good of an indicator this is. I'm going to show you its track record, why this is a signal that actually works, and what it means today in 2024. The fact that this signal was developed in 1937 is very important because it means that any signals provided after 1937 was a test of the quality of the Hindenburg Omen. This is rare. Most of the signals that you hear about have been specifically designed to work with the benefit of hindsight.

meaning someone can put together a formula and look at whether this was a good signal in the past. Before publishing it, if it wasn't a good signal, then they'll just keep on changing the formula until they stumble upon something that works. That is not the case with the Hindenburg Omen that was created in 1937. Every single time it was triggered since 1937 has been a test of the validity of this signal. So let's take a look at the track record of the Hindenberg Omen on the NASDAQ 100 over the last 25 years. It has been able to anticipate with a fairly good degree of accuracy significant Market Peaks like 1999, 2007, but also many of the most recent Market Peaks we've seen over the last decade like 2015, 2018, 2019, and of course the peak in 2021 just before a 25% drop on the NASDAQ 100. Today the Hindenburg Omen is flashing again. Now the signal isn't as strong as

it was in 1999 or in 2007, but the average stock market correction that followed similar signals to the one we have today was around 15%. So, it's worth taking a look at what is actually going on today. The Hindenburg Omen only triggers when there's a large number of stocks in an index that are making new annual lows, while the stock market as a whole is trending higher. This is not normal behavior. Under normal conditions, a large number of stocks are either making new annual highs or new annual lows. It's very rare to see both happening at the same time, but sometimes it does happen, and when it does, it means that although the stock market is rising and looks strong, underneath the surface, it's actually weakening and showing cracks. That's something we are seeing today. Since January of 2023, the S&P 500 has advanced by a staggering 40%, a very strong rally by historical standards. But when we look at an index called the RSP, we see it has only moved up by just 15%.

this RSP index removes any outsized contributions of large technology companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, or Amazon. So, this chart shows us that the stock market is essentially being pulled by just a handful of large technology companies. A large part of this strong performance we've seen on the S&P 500 is due to excitement around artificial intelligence, but we can definitely see the rest of the economy isn't really feeling the same excitement. Now, I want to be clear, just because the Hindenburg signal has often occurred before large Market Corrections, doesn't mean that's going to happen immediately. In 2007, the Hindenburg signal reached the same strength as we have today in June, but the stock market peaked in December of 2007, 5 months later. Similarly, in 2000, the Hindenburg signal reached the same strength as today in December, but the market only peaked in March of 2000, 3 months later. Now, 3 months might not sound like a lot, but many of you watching this video want to know what's going to happen to the stock market over

the next 3 months. Unfortunately, the Hindenberg signal does not provide us with much information on that. It does tell us, however, that the market is at risk of a much more substantial correction today, and that if the signal continues to strengthen, it could start to look like the setups we had before the two major crashes in 2000 and 2008. Now, I also want you to take this information with a grain of salt because when we zoom out a little bit further in history, we see that the Hindenberg signal doesn't have a perfect track record. You can see it also triggered a signal in 1997, which was not a great moment to be selling the NASDAQ 100 as it continued to move higher for another 2 years. It did, however, provide another great warning signal to investors as the market was topping in 1990 before quite a significant correction, and it also triggered a signal a few months before the market peaked in 1987, which was followed by the Black Monday stock market crash. Now, today, despite these

warning signals. The S&P 500 is still very much in a bullish technical structure, which is why throughout 2024, we've been quite aggressively long on the stock market. We've closed 31 trades so far in 2024, with some of the trades exceeding 30% gains and almost all of our losing trades being under 5%. We want to have a maximum number of large successful trades, but also make sure that our clients are avoiding large losses because poor risk management is the most dangerous part of trading, something we take very seriously at Game of Trades. We cannot guarantee that we'll continue to have these results looking forward, but we're doing everything we can to make sure that will be the case. You can join our service to access all of these

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힌덴부르크의 징조: 나스닥 100에 대한 치명적인 신호

주요 정점을 예측한 실적이 있는 시장 신호인 힌덴버그 오멘은 1937년 개발된 이래 NASDAQ 100에서 신뢰할 수 있는 지표로 사용되어 왔습니다.

2021년 하락을 포함해 주요 시장 정점을 정확히 예측한 이력이 있는 힌덴버그 오멘은 현재 2024년에 점멸하고 있어 우려의 대상이 되고 있습니다.

이 신호의 일관된 효과는 다른 많은 시장 신호와 차별화되며, 거의 100년 동안 뒤늦은 시각을 사용하지 않고 테스트하고 입증해 왔습니다.

오늘날 주식 시장에서 힌덴부르크 징조의 중요성

힌덴부르크 징조는 전체 시장이 상승 추세인 가운데 많은 종목이 연중 최저치를 경신하는 등 비정상적인 주가 움직임을 보이고 있어 근본적인 약세를 시사하고 있습니다.

S&P 500 지수는 2023년 1월 이후 일부 대형 기술 기업을 중심으로 40% 급등하면서 시장 성과에 불균형이 생겼습니다.

과거 데이터에 따르면 힌덴버그 징조는 시장 조정의 전조이지만, 조정 시기는 신호 발생 수개월 후 정점이 찍히는 등 다양할 수 있습니다.

힌덴버그 신호와 그 역사적 영향

힌덴버그 신호는 2000년과 2008년과 유사한 중대한 시장 조정 가능성을 경고하고 있습니다.

그러나 1997년에는 시장 움직임을 예측하지 못했지만 1990년과 1987년에는 시장 고점을 성공적으로 예측했기 때문에 과거 기록이 완벽하지는 않습니다.

투자자는 현재 신호의 잠재적 영향을 해석할 때 이러한 과거 데이터를 고려해야 합니다.

게임 오브 트레이드의 2024년 주식 시장 성과

게임 오브 트레이드는 2024년 S&P 500에서 공격적으로 강세를 보였으며 31건의 거래를 마감했고 일부는 30% 이상 수익과 최소 손실을 기록했습니다.

이 회사는 성공적인 거래를 극대화하고 고객 손실을 최소화하기 위해 리스크 관리에 우선순위를 두고 있습니다.

미래의 결과를 보장할 수는 없지만 현재 성과를 유지하기 위해 최선을 다하고 있습니다.