### 대선 이후 M&A 전망과 반도체 산업 동향

### 새 행정부의 M&A 전망과 반도체 산업 역학 관계
* 📈 2023년 바이든 대통령이 제정한 합병 가이드라인이 트럼프 대통령 당선인 아래에서 철회될 가능성이 높고, 보다 우호적인 규제 환경이 조성됨에 따라 **2025년 차기 행정부에서 M&A 활동은 증가할 것**으로 예상됩니다.
* 💼 예상되는 변화는 '동물의 영혼'을 자극하여 **2025년 동안 M&A와 IPO가 모두 증가**할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 시장에 긍정적인 발전으로 여겨집니다.
* 💻 특히 최근 인텔이 인력의 **15%를 해고**하면서 미국이 반도체 분야에서 올바른 플레이어를 지원하고 있는지에 대한 의문이 제기되면서 **CHIPS 법의 실효성에 대한 우려**가 제기되고 있습니다.
* 🔍 칩스법 기금을 받지 않은 엔비디아는 **TSMC 및 기타 칩 제조업체와의 파트너십**을 활용하여 업계에서 입지를 유지하며 계속해서 성장하고 있습니다.
* 🛠 트럼프 행정부 하에서 TSMC에 대한 관세 부과 가능성은 국내 생산을 장려할 수 있지만, **엔비디아는 높은 수요와 상당한 총 마진**으로 인해 가격을 인상하는 방식으로 대응할 수 있습니다.
* 🚀 Amazon 및 AMD와 같은 기업과의 경쟁이 심화되고 있음에도 불구하고 Nvidia는 **다음 분기에 70%의 매출 증가**를 예상하며 견조한 시장 수요를 나타내는 좋은 실적을 거둘 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 📊 투자자들은 높은 주가수익배수에 거래되고 있는 '매그니피센트 세븐' 기술주 외에도 **낮은 밸류에이션과 잠재적 성장성**을 갖춘 중형주가 더 매력적인 기회를 제공하므로 포트폴리오를 다각화할 것을 권장합니다.
* ⚖ 2025년으로 시장이 이동함에 따라 **주요 기술 기업의 수익이 둔화**될 것으로 예상되므로 기술 이외의 섹터, 특히 중형주에 집중하는 것이 더 나은 위험-보상 균형을 제공할 수 있습니다.

차기 행정부에서는 M&A 활동이 급증하여 시장에 큰 도움이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

Just dig in on, for example, M&A hopes
around this new administration coming in 2025 and deals getting done.
Chips being supported or not supported as a sector.
What do you make of it? Well, let's start with M&A first.
And we do think that M&A will increase.

You know, you have pretty rigorous
merger guidelines passed by President Biden in 2023.
We reckon those will be undone under President-elect Trump.
And remember, they had lowered the guidance threshold at a company being
seen as anti-competitive.

So we do think it's going to be a
friendlier environment for regulation, a friendlier environment for M&A, and
expect that animal spirits, M&A and IPOs will pick up in 2025.
So we think this is one of the positives

coming from Trump.
Just quickly on the CHIPS Act and Intel, are we back on the wrong horse there?
I mean, this is supposed to create jobs. They just laid off 15% of the workforce.
And I kind of look at and think, Nvidia

didn't get any money from the CHIPS Act
and it's actually doing a pretty darn good job of actually supplying the chips
industry. So I think this is a program is hard to
change and removes these legislative programs.
It's not a program that President-elect

Trump favors very much.
I think he called it a really bad program.
So stay tuned on Nvidia, though. They basically get TSMC and other chip
makers to produce. This is all about on shoring and making
sure that chips can be made in the

United States.
When you're looking at a video and indeed its exposure, whether it be
selling into China or indeed depending on a supply chain that is in many ways
related to Taiwan. How does that factor into an investment
thesis?

Well, as you know, Trump has said
tariffs, the most beautiful word in the English language.
So, you know, maybe Trump just use some tariffs here on TSMC because that would
encourage them to think about it in

part, by the way, they were part of the
CHIPS Act as well. So they did receive some subsidies
there. But, you know, that might encourage them
to accelerate production in the United States.
Now, how will Nvidia respond?

I don't know which 74% gross margins and
it seems like insane demand and Jensen Huang's words it seems like they're just
going to raise prices. So you know if we get some tariffs on
TSMC which I wouldn't be surprised, I

just think Infineon will end up passing
that on to its demand hungry customers. It feels like you've got some nuance
about which horses you should back, but more broadly, the winners are likely to
continue winning into the next

administration.
Is that what you're articulating? Is it still good to be long, big tech
here? I mean, let's just talk about a little
bit of the winners in semiconductor. You know, at the end of the day,
Nvidia's clearly in pole position,

monopoly position, I mean, more demand
and supply, but competition is coming. Remember, 40% of their datacenter
customers are also trying to compete with them.
Amazon's coming pretty close here in developing a chip.
Now I understand it's 40% cheaper.

Not really sure.
The performance benchmarks with respect to training and inference, they haven't
been published and it's not clear it's in production mode, so to speak.
So let's see what happens. And of course, to a certain extent, AMD
and Intel are fast trying to be

competitors as well.
So competition is on the way and we should expect to see more of that.
You know, people are looking at the price of video chips.
The fact that they can't get access and are trying to diversify their supply
sources.

And that makes sense, right?
So we do expect competition to come as we look forward now.
I don't say this is a key one. I think in video should have another
blockbuster quarter. Certainly they were pretty clear about
it.

They expect revenues to be up 70% in the
next quarter and they normally beat that number.
So let's see where that comes out. Customers look at the price of the
chips. Investors look at the price of the stock
with Nvidia trading at 46 times

future earnings.
Many have been perhaps taking bit of profit when you're looking at Tesla
that's trading at 141 times future earnings.
What do you make about the optimism baked into that stock post-election?
Well, Tesla is clearly a special child at the
moment, given the relationship between

Elon Musk and Trump.
And, you know, and these stocks, these Magnificent Seven, you know, on average
they're at about 35 times forward earnings at the moment.
And that means makes them very vulnerable to disappointment.
Right.

So one of the themes that we've had on
this year is, you know, tech is fine. We believe in China.
You need to diversify beyond just those Magnificent Seven technology shares that
have fueled the market's advance.

And we think midcap in particular,
trading at about 13, 14 times earnings up close to 10% already this month is an
excellent beneficiary of larger potentially corporate tax rate cuts,
manufacturing renaissance and a better

outlook for growth in the United States.
So there are other things you can do and diversify away from tech, by the way,
where earnings are expected to decelerate in the so-called Magnificent
Seven as we head into 2025, where

they're supposed to accelerate in the
rest of the market. And so I think that's a really nice
way to still look to return, participate, but protect some of that
valuation. Potential downside risk in tech.

M&A Will Increase Under Trump: AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin

Welcome to the Bloomberg Technology YouTube channel. Subscribe for original series and mini-docs on game-changing technologies, profiles on innovators, live conversations with experts, and breaking technology news & analysis from Bloomberg TV.

Bloomberg Technology

M&A activity and regulatory changes under the new administration

Increased M&A activity is anticipated due to expected changes in merger guidelines.

President Biden's rigorous merger guidelines are expected to be reversed.

A friendlier regulatory environment is foreseen, leading to increased M&A and IPO activity.

Concerns raised about the CHIPS Act's effectiveness, citing Intel layoffs.

Nvidia's success despite not receiving CHIPS Act funding is highlighted.

President-elect Trump's negative view of the CHIPS Act is mentioned.

Discussion on the impact of the CHIPS Act on onshoring and supply chain related to Taiwan.

Potential use of tariffs and its impact on the semiconductor industry

Trump's potential use of tariffs on TSMC to encourage US production is discussed.

TSMC's participation in the CHIPS Act and potential impact of tariffs on Nvidia's response are considered.

Infineon's potential reaction to tariffs is analyzed.

Analysis of winners in the semiconductor industry and the outlook for big tech

The expectation that current winners in the semiconductor industry will continue to succeed.

Nvidia's dominant position and potential competition from Amazon and others are discussed.

AMD and Intel's efforts to compete with Nvidia are mentioned.

The impact of diversification of supply sources by customers is considered.

Nvidia's future performance and stock valuation

Nvidia's expected revenue growth and its high stock valuation are discussed.

Comparison of Nvidia's and Tesla's valuations is made.

Investment strategy and diversification beyond big tech

Concerns about the high valuations of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks are expressed.

Recommendation to diversify beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Mid-cap stocks are suggested as a potential alternative investment.

Expected deceleration of earnings in the Magnificent Seven compared to the rest of the market is noted.