목재 시장: 도전과 기회

### 목재 시장 인사이트: 가격, 수요 및 경제적 영향
* 💰 목재 가격은 역사적으로 낮은 수준으로, **7월 선물 계약은 1,000보드 피트당 약 440달러**에 거래되고 있습니다.
* 🏗 ️ 주택 시장은 신중한 상황이며, **건축업자들은 구매자 트래픽이 보장되지 않는 한 새로운 프로젝트를 시작하기를 주저**합니다.
* **2x4 14피트 보드와 같은 특정 목재 사이즈**는 공급 과잉과 수요 감소로 인해 시장 가격보다 할인된 가격에 판매되고 있습니다.
* 📉 허가 발급과 주택 착공이 팬데믹 이전 수준에 비해 감소하는 등 **신규 건설 활동이 둔화**되고 있습니다.
* 🏠 주택 시장은 **주택 착공 건수가 줄어들고 모기지 대출 건수가 감소**하는 등 활동이 '추락'하고 있습니다.
* 📊 현재 경제 환경은 **높은 가격과 제한된 재고**로 인해 빌더와 구매자 모두에게 어려운 상황입니다.
* 💼 일부 전문가와 백만장자들은 **오늘날의 경제 상황에서 일반인이 겪는 어려움**에 대해 잘 알지 못할 수 있습니다.
* 🌐 연사는 **현재의 경제 환경에서 우수성을 추구하고 새로운 기회에 개방적인 자세**를 갖는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

목재 시장은 가격이 1,000달러당 440달러로 최저치를 기록하는 등 급락하고 있으며, 이는 신규 건설이 둔화되고 건축업자들이 신중한 태도를 취하고 있음을 나타냅니다.

hated Economist here. So in this video, we're going to be talking about the lumber market. Lumber prices are absolutely tanking out right now. We're at 440 per thousand on the July contract, somewhere between 440-450. This is incredibly low. To be honest, I didn't think it was going to get much below 450, but yet today in the cash price, we saw trading all the way down to 438. Now, I left a couple of links down in the description to the bar charts, graph showing both the current cash price and the July Futures Contract. Now, you have to think there's a lot of different contracts that are out there depending on which one you're looking at and how that is going to, you know, go into your economic analysis of what's happening out there in the economy. Now, when you look at, like a lot of times when you go to places like say CNBC, what they will do is they will switch the contract but you didn't quite recognize it like they might have gone

from July to September, or something of that nature, so you really have to look to see which contract that they are quoting because a lot of times it may switch to another contract, and you're not quite realizing that yesterday it might have been July and today it's September. So really keep an eye on what contract it is that you are looking at if you're following lumber futures because right now if you look at like the September contract, I think it's at 470, or something of that nature, now 440 per thousand. Mills are not making money at 440 per thousand, and I am actually recognizing this through the retail end of things. Today I got an interesting phone call from one of my vendors, and a lot of you who follow this channel for lumber information, this is the type of stuff that you'd like to hear because today I got a phone call from one of my vendors who says, Hey, we have a stack of 2x4 14t. How would you like one of these stacks or the whole stack?

everything I got for 440 per th000. Now this was the first thing this morning and I'm thinking wait, wait a minute. Like print cash right now. Cash price is 440 per th000. They're offering me essentially a unit of lumber for cheaper than the market has it future priced at. Right? Like this is how desperate they are to move product out. And now I think about this particular item. It's a 2X 414 which is probably the least moving unit of lumber that could carry in my yard. Like anything that's a 14t or 18t. It has like almost zero demand to it. Especially when it comes to like a 2x4 18 ft or 14t. Not nearly nearly as common as a 12 or 16 or 20. Now considering that most of the time 14t and 18t. When it is purchased, it's used for plate stock. They don't really care what length you get. But if you're not building a lot of houses or there's not a lot of housing.

demand out there for new construction then those items like those less demand items for plate stock like a 14t and 18t. Lumber yards aren't going to really want to carry those particular lengths because they don't move right. Like the retail customers aren't going to buy it. And if there's not a lot of Home Building happening they're they're not going to buy those unit of Lumbers because they just sit on it. And we're the exact same position like the buyer I went to him was like hey man look at this a hell of a good deal on this unit of lumber goes and does recall on it to see how much we've moved in the last 2 years. And he was like yeah it doesn't even justify we're still not going to carry them we just don't even carry the 14t unit. So that's one of the things that I'm starting to see happen along with shortages. So not only do you have an abundance of some material that isn't very common but then there's shortages.

of other things that aren't as likely made by The Mills. So like a 2x4, 2x6 standing and better, they'll run those all day long considering that that's the common items that are sold. Right after you start getting into the wider lengths, the 2 by 8, 2 X 10, 2 x 12, these ones not so much demand for those as much as they are for the 2x6 and 2x4. So now when you go to look for a unit of say 2x8 16s, those things may not be as prevalent out there on the market right because the Mills aren't running as many of those. So here you're starting to find it overstocking some things and depletion of inventory in other places. At the same time, you're seeing these prices coming down dramatically tells me that the lumber Market is not doing well. And the reason it's not doing well against because the new construction Market is very much in a very cautious cautionary position.

that the way to say it, like the builders don't want to build if they cannot find the buyer traffic. Like if there was buyer traffic there, the builders would be in it because you think about it, home prices are expensive, right? And if you think, if you have an expensive product that you were building, then you would want to build more of those. But if you build an expensive product and only to find out by the time you built it that you don't have a buyer for that product, then most likely you're going to hold back on your idea of creating those new products, right? I don't care what business you're in, I mean whether it's home construction or anything out there, this is the same thing that's going to happen. So these Builders are looking at that very thing. They're like, yeah, even though lumber prices are cheap and home prices are elevated and there is room for profit, if you have at the end of your project no buyers for it, then why even start? And this is what we are

experiencing now. Go and take a look at permit issuance. I should have gotten the links for those. I'm sorry I didn't do that, but if you just go permit issuance and then type in f d at the end of it, Fred, right, this will take you to the Federal Reserve education side. Whatever they have all the different types of graphs you could ever possibly imagine, but look at permit issuance. Look at housing starts. Both of these are down comparatively to where we were just over the last few years. Even during the pandemic when things spiked prior to the pandemic, we're at those levels like even in a lot of places we're probably coming down below the pre-pandemic levels. There is less homes being started, right, less homes are getting permit issuance for this is a sign of a Slowdown in the new construction market. Now what I find interesting is a lot of times when we talk about Crash like even put crashing in the uh in the title of this video so when we think about Lumber crashing.

right, we think about it, okay, crashing is a price dropping dramatically. Like to us, when we think about it, Market crashing, that's what we think, right? Prices come down dramatically, but really, we have to think about it in a little bit different sense. Is crashing really prices coming down, or is it stalling out inactivity? And I think that's probably a better indicator of a crashing economy, is how much activity is slowing down. Think about home purchases, like how many mortgages are being created, how many new home sales are taking place. That's the crashing housing market, less activity taking place within this market, less mortgages being written, less home purchases taking place, less homes being started, less permit issuance taking place. This is the crashing housing market. It's not the price like a lot of people would look at. They're thinking, okay, I'm waiting for the crashing housing market to take place. No, it's crashing right now, that economic activity that's not happening within the housing market, that is the crash. Now we recognize it in two different fashions, people want to see.

the prices come down. That may not happen. There's a limited amount of inventory out there, and as long as you have a limited amount of inventory and you have a demand coming from all the people out there who don't own homes, regardless if can make the payments or not, they still want the home, right? As long as you have that going on, you're going to have elevated prices, limited amount of inventory, and an unlimited amount of demand. Now, whether or not that demand is capable of doing it, that's relative, but they want to be there to buy those houses, regardless if they can do it or not. And unless you are bringing new inventory in some way or the other, whether it's from new construction or foreclosures or something of that nature, you're not going to find where the housing prices can come down because the inventory levels are just not allowing it to take place. So how you going to get new inventory? You're going to have to do it with new builds. How do you do it with new builds? You're going to have to have

the Builder sentiment turn positive especially. It's turned pretty much turned positive in every respect, except for buyer traffic. And now, what's going to turn biot traffic around? The idea that they will be able to refinance into the future. They know they don't like these interest rates, everybody knows that, right? But if they could refinance into the future, they would be willing to accept the interest rates at the levels that they are at, with the idea, with the hopes, with the dreams, with the belief that they would be able to refinance that into the future. And if they have a true understanding within them that is communicated to them that there will be interest rates drops going into the future, they would start active being active within the housing market. So until that happens, I just don't see where the builders are going to take advantage of these high prices, considering that they will not have or believe that they would not have a buyer at the end of the project. And that is concerning to them the most. Keep an eye

on these lumber futures, we're about ready to end this July contract next Monday, this Monday coming up. So, like in five days, something like that. Whatever happens Friday is going to really tell what's going to be taking place throughout the rest of the summer when it comes to the lumber prices because everything in the system at that point is going to have very inexpensive lumber depending on how fast those retailers can turn their inventory over, which is really slow right now, which is the reason why the prices are coming down. It will take time for those cheaper prices to come into the market. However, this summer is going to be cheap lumber prices and nobody's really building. It is like what you're going to find from this is ever-increasing amounts of shortages taking place within the lumber market. And at some point when that belief, when that turning around of what it is that the market is feeling about interest rates and how it is that they can refinance into the future, the moment that shifts and the builders are going for it, you're going to find that the

lumber prices are just going to explode 'cause you can already see it happening like the limitations are now in the market with oversupply in the stuff that nobody really uses. It's happening right now guys like I don't know how else to explain it. Here we go. All right let's read some of these comments here. Let's cruise up to the very top here. All right Brody thanks for being here. Yeah thanks for hitting the like stream because YouTube will. Yep that's the P comment we pinned there thank you so much for that comment there Brody giving me the opportunity to pin it up there. All right thank you. What I mean is thank you for your channel. Well thank you very much man. Antonio thank you. All right all right UE E look at textile sector interesting thanks for being here Antonio. Yeah poppy please go live. All right A1 title again Simon. I could see you being stuck here all day with a banger like that. Yeah thanks Brody. Two minutes Jesse.

you have time to go fix yourself a drink fed pal testifies Senator Reed so that the FED can be second guessed by the Supreme Court since the chevron case was overturned do you believe this will affect the FED monetary policy I would have to look into it a little bit more but I don't believe that there is anything that is going to affect the monetary policy coming from the Federal Reserve except for the voting members opinions on what it is that they should do like there if they do any kind of real systematic change to the Federal Reserve and how they operate there's going to be some serious changes to the way that like like I just don't like the if they take away the independence of the Federal Reserve it's going to really alter a lot of stuff out there so I would have to like look deeper into to it to see what it is that you know that that would imply but as far as like the monetary policy coming from the Federal Reserve everything that I have

ever read I would look at the opinions of the each individual FOMC member and try and get as much information from them. Not through the mainstream media and that's very difficult to do so. You have to go and read like their working papers. You have to go and read their speeches. You have to go and stuff like that that's going to give you a much better idea of what's going to happen with monetary policy anything outside of that. I believe is going to be propaganda. All right Midwest cannabis right good to see you up in here. I'm exhausted from Hurricane repair yeah I bet new home start must be in the toilet they are right. I mean it's in it's like if you look at the graph you're like well it's not as bad as it like you know as it was you know prior to 2019. It was a lot less then it's the direction that it's going right. The economic thez the economic activity is slowing down that's the M the momentum is dropping excuse me.

and that's the concerning part right. Like if it's increasing, it's expanding. Then hey, you know, like everything's going good, right? You're running the expansion. But if it's like, if it's decreasing, that means every bid is harder to get, every estimate is, needs to be tightened up that much more. Everything is getting more difficult because it's a contraction that is happening, right? And that's very concerning for economic activity, right? Is the contraction part of things which we are experiencing dramatically. All right, you do natural dis. How do natural disasters affect the economy when repairing luxury houses? Well, I mean, I think actual natural disasters do a much do a pretty good job of boosting the economy because it creates a lot of economic activity that wouldn't have been there before. And for the most part, it's mostly domestic activity, right? You're not really buying in a bunch of foreign production unless you're replacing maybe like the appliances or something of that nature, you know? Simon is it very expensive for yards to inventory stock. They only

rarely make sales off of yes. It is very expensive, especially you know when it comes to like especi. Okay, so you have to think. There's a lot of different ways that stores carry inventory, and most of them, it's they're paying interest on it. So, if it's not moving, if it's not rolling over, then every month they pay an interest on inventory that's not doing anything. So yes, the more inventory they have, the more expensive it is, or the more expens. How the more um operating cost is right, but in the same sense that without a big inventory, then you won't have a lot of options in order to turn that inventory over. So it's a very like, you know, tricky way of being as far as carrying only the a items because you only want to have the items that sell the most, right, so you can make some money off of it. But if you don't offer up some of the other items, some of the B items, the C items, then you don't necessarily get the traffic coming to the store, right, so.

if you only want to sell the best of what the best is well you might get a lot of sales for those particular items, but you're going to miss out on all kinds of other sales which would be in addition to those top items. So basically you're missing out on tons of sales when people call up and say, hey, do you have this one? No, I don't. Well then you might miss out on the sale of an A item because you didn't have the B item for them. All right, so it's a matter of carrying like the A items, the B items all the way down to the C items, which are stuff that you rarely ever sell, but you kind of have to have it there so that you know you don't miss out on the opportunity to sell the other things as well. And so that's a very tricky, you know, position to be in, and you know people who are really good at, you know, managing their stores can do that well. All right, five bucks from City Star Productions, thank you.

much for the 499. Can't wait to capitalize off this information. Thanks, yeah, and you bet like you're not going to find a lot of people out there who are going to be talking about the mill curtailments and shutdowns and inventory depletions talking about the things that they are experiencing within the lumber Market at this exact moment. You're going to find information coming out next week, week after, which is going to be talking about this. People are experiencing Lumber shortages in the market, and people are going to be like, Oh my God, this is brand news. And I've been like, No man, I've been telling you about this for months, right? But it's not so dramatic that it makes the newspapers yet. It's just little pockets boom here, it's popping off right, and you're like, Hey, there's some, there's some, there's some, some of it. Once everybody starts experiencing it as a whole, like, Oh hey, this is obviously happening. I mean, I just got a phone call trying to sell me lumber for less than what the spot price.

is like the current cash price is holy crap man that doesn't happen that's that that's like that doesn't happen right. I mean it I shouldn't say it doesn't happen it does happen right but that's not something that is like that like that's that's an experience that you that's sets it off like hey that's a flag right there that's going off right all right yeah Brody it's been insane the last week uh let's cruise down here a little ways okay. The previous generations have built all their homes we need no more baby boomer no more housing boom the elderly will shed all the homes the young need in the next decade. You know Joel I can kind of I can kind of agree with that like kind of had the almost like the Japan effect going right where there's like houses in Japan that are like just super cheap like you know almost like practically free and they just don't have enough of the older population or even the younger population even wanting or Desiring.

these homes now in this country. I don't see it the same way. Like, I don't see the same effect happening here. And there's a couple of different reasons why. One of them is we have a dramatic slowdown in the new construction that is happening here and not providing enough homes for the population as it is right now. I know a lot of people will argue with that, whatever, right? I mean, if supply and demand, right? If there was more supply, right, then the prices would come down. The demand for the amount of supply that is existing right now creates the high prices that we have. Blame it on all the institutional investors you want. At the end of the day, prices are elevated, right? People can't buy them. There's a huge demand for it, whatever, right? We can put all the excuses and reasonings behind it. That house over there is expensive. I see it, right? I know it. Now, when we think about like what's going to happen with this baby boomer generation, I think about a lot of people who are of like the baby boom generation.

like older, like going on in life, getting, you know, pretty much to the end of life, and this, like, idea of this older population basically dying away, is going to bring this flood of houses, like they're all in homes that are going to all of a sudden just become available when they, when they pass away. Now that does make a lot of sense if you think about it in that fashion, like, hey, there's this huge generation of Baby Boomers, and they're all going to pass away, leaving these houses out there, right? Totally get that, except when you think about how many adult children live with their parents. There's record numbers of adult children living with their parents 'cause they can't afford to live on their own. So they're, they're like basically living in the basement or living in their, you know, living in their room, like never left the house. So what happens to those people when their parents pass away? If they don't get the house, they have to find another place to go. That adds to demand, so really, you're just swapping, right?

somebody else was going to buy that gets into house, but then now this person needs to go find a place, right? So it doesn't really alleviate the housing problem if these people are just needing to go find another place to go, all right? And now this could very well be the case as we find the baby boomer generation passing away, literally leaving those houses to their children, never once providing any kind of increase in the inventory as there's already people living in those homes, right? And so I could very well see that being the case coming into the future, not really providing any new inventory or never really providing that boost of inventory. All uh prices are high because there is still too much covid money in the system. There were single employee businesses that were awarded 100K by the government, even though they didn't deserve it. Uh gray wave, okay, what what it does, what what it does do though, is lower the future Demand with the switches. The only solution for the US debt problem is to have a dramatic

increase in the demand for the US dollar, and luckily, that is exactly what is about to happen as dollars come out of assets. Yeah, I could really see the Dollar Rising here, um, especially as the Federal Reserve stand still, uh, and the rest of the Nations out there start moving into lowering interest rates and like in Easy kind of policy or easing less restrictive policies, I guess I should say. And when they do that, their currency is going to weaken as the dollar grows stronger, and I could very well see how the Federal Reserve could do this and stay elevated with the interest rates, creating a stronger dollar and very much destroying Nations around the world, like people. I don't think realize how much dollar-denominated debt exists out there that don't have anything to do with the United States, and as the dollar strengthens, those debts become very expensive to service, and these nations, these corporations, these people around the world who have taken out debts in dollars will feel incredible amounts of pain and suffering on account of a strengthening dollar, you know. I mean, I could see it.

happening, and it seems to actually be taking place as it [Music]. Is all right, go hit the like button, yes please do. All right. Corporations buying single-family homes will continue to keep the supply low. I mean, you know, you have to think back in Canon's day. He talked about the property owners' right and the rents and leases that they offer out. And, you know, you know, this is what's funny about Canon's essay is that, uh, you know, who he says suffers the first and foremost before anybody else with inflation is the property owners. You know why they suffer the most? It's because they are stuck at fixed rents and leases while the prices of everything start moving up. They have no other choice but to suffer through the time that it takes for those rents and leases to expire. Now, you will know with no question how there is an abundance of money in the system than by the rents and leases by how much they charge for them. So when you saw those rents and leases increase dramatically.

is because of the painful experiences that the property owners were going through that caused them to do that. Now on the flip side of that, when they have an abundance of property and there is a lack of money in the system, all things being equal, you'll see the exact opposite thing happen and you'll see those rents and leases coming down. Now it's very simple to see it. We can blame it on all kinds of things but can't talked about the property owners back in the day. And so whether or not you want to consider it an individual person who has a bunch of properties or if you want to considered a giant Corporation, it's essentially the same thing. All right, these Property Owners got together, pulled the money, and bought even more property with it because that's how the economy functions. I don't like it. It isn't fair, right, and it's not meant to be fair because life isn't fair, right. And so when you think about it like there is no fair opportunity for you, it's going to be a survival of the

fittest. And that's the unfortunate consequence of being at this time, right? See, if we were back in the 40s or 50s, well, you could have been an average job, you could have worked hard and saved and provided enough for all the family and kids vacations and retirement and all the good stuff that everybody talked about being being here in the United States. Well, that time is gone, that doesn't, that's not this time, that was a time long ago that doesn't exist now. It's a whole different era, which means that going through the traditional methods of attempting to get a house by having a job and working hard and being dedicated to that individual will not pay off. It's not going to pay off, right? It might, might for some, some there, you know, people who happen to get into a really good, you know, maybe retirement plan with their, with their, with a business or something with the company sticks to it, you know, really dedicated to contributing to that does it their entire life, you know, and at the end of

it you know yeah you know I could see that happening like you know an individual might be able to pull that one off. Very few people do it that way, very few, you know, very few people are that committed, that dedicated to starting early in their early 20s, sticking it out with that company, contributing to their 401k, or to some sort of retirement plan, and being committed to that over the, you know, the course of their life. I mean there's a lot of people who do it, but yeah, no, that's not really the way that it's generally done anymore, right? And so understanding that, it's a different, if a totally different way, right? So you have to have that full-time job, or you have to have a side hustle, or you have to have your own business, or better yet, you have to have all of those things going at the exact same time. Because if you don't have it all going at the exact same time, you're competing against people like institutional investors.

right. I mean, how is a regular average 9-to-5 job supposed to compete against that? You can't. This, you can't. It's not going to happen. But the fortunate thing is, is that there's so many different ways of making money nowadays, you know. I mean, think about it. 20, 30 years ago, you couldn't really just use the internet to go make money. I mean, some people were figuring it out, but for the most part, you couldn't just, you know, figure out ways to make money. Now, there's all kinds of ways to make money off the internet. There's all kinds of ways to do little side hustles. There's all kinds of ways to generate passive incomes or cash flow. And, you know, people just don't seem to take advantage of any of it. And because some people take advantage of it, well, they have the extra money, the extra money beyond that of what it is that somebody with a 9-to-5 job is doing. And so, with that extra money that they're working for, whatever that's supposed to

mean they are able to find that apartment. They can afford to pay for that car, and everybody else is wondering how come it is that I can't get an apartment. Well, it's because you just have a nine-to-five job. You have to do the extra work in order to have an apartment because a nine-to-five job doesn't cut it anymore. Yeah, it's confusing. It sucks, right? It shouldn't be that way, but even a good job sucks now. It doesn't work, and it's easier to understand it in that fashion than it is to hope and dream and pray or expect that there's going to be anything different coming from this 'cause it isn't, right? That's just the way it's just. This is the operating systems that we now have to be part of, and if you don't want to be part of it, then you're going to be suffering with the consequences of being left behind, of being on the wrong side of the wedge when the inequality continues to grow worse, recognizing why it's taken place.

how it takes place is the way that you can position yourself to not be left behind. You and it's not impossible, but it has to be understood that there's nobody coming. There's no system that is going to come in save you, right? There's no president out there who's going to do it. Right? There's nothing. The only thing that you have is you. You are it, and you better figure it out because anything at the end of the day is going to be your fault, whether you succeed or fail. All right, all right, don't mean to go lecturing like that. Let's take a look at this. All right. K Kaiser Flash, thank you very much for the 499 disasters. Do not help the economy in any way. Bad debunk the broken window fallacy in the parable of the broken window. Yeah, I mean, I think the question was, does it boost economic activity? Yeah, right. And so we don't really have a system in which that economic activity is going to benefit our economy. We have a system in which that economic activity

is going to be pushing debts, which does benefit our economy, right? So, the economic activity, the actual activity of it itself, I don't think is really that is really kind of here nor there in it. However, the economic activity creates debt issuance, which I do think contributes to our economy. So, in that sense, yes, right, because it drives the debts even. And I'm not trying to say that's a good thing either, right? I'm not, I'm not, I'm not trying to say that. I'm just, this is observation, right, of it all, because I do agree with you that the broken window policy is totally correct with it in it. That says like, you know, if you break a window, it doesn't create any economic, actually takes away from the economy because now you have to produce something that's already existing instead of producing something new, right? So, just to kind of simply kind of get it out there. But when you think about how this economy is built off of debt issuance and we're a debt-based currency, anything you can do to expand

the debt is what now creates the expansion within our economy. So, if you bust every single window out in every single house, and then insurance has to go deeper into debt, or there has to be some sort of debt issuance in order to create the economic activity that now replaces all these windows. It's that debt issuance that now has all the economic activity happening out there. See, like if it was a gold back currency, like if we were a fixed currency Bitcoin, a gold-based, then yeah, it would actually deteriorate the economy. But because we're debt-based, it would expand the economy, which still deteriorates the economy in the long run. But you know, we don't think about the long run, we only think about the here and now. Uh, I never invested in individual stocks. All right, huge jacked man, 20 years old and quite lost in life. This stuff is incredible to understand the chaos better than my college classes, better than any lecture, and all for free. Love your work. Yeah, huge Jack man, well I appreciate the comment on.

that, and I mean, you know, these are just the things. This is like everything that I talk about is all from experiences, right? Like, I don't like, I mean, I listen to other people out there. I listen to some lectures. I listen to some things, but really, it's a lot of the stuff that I have picked up is just picking up from just experiences, just from like literally trying to figure out what the hell happened and like going back and saying, how did my channel take off? Like, what is it that I was doing? What was I thinking? How did I, how did I change to all of a sudden have something like this uniqueness of this having this YouTube channel really change everything about my life, right? And like a lot of people say, well, just go out there and just do it, you know? And I was just like, it just can't do it, man. It was just like, there's a, I've tried doing a million YouTube channels. What was different about this one, right? Like, I've tried to do all

kinds of stuff out there to make money. Try to do businesses, stuff like that. This, which I had no expectations of, absolutely just took off right in a way that I was like, What the hell's going on here, man? This isn't right. What's like, is this an accident that I, you know, like, what's going on, right? And the more I got to thinking about it, it was just like, Okay, so when I tried doing all those other businesses, all that other YouTube videos, all that other stuff, I wasn't in the mindset of, like, when I did the uneducated Economist, like I was doing this stuff with the idea that I was going to be entertaining, make money at it, and try to make money and try to get it out there and show everybody how I can do these really entertaining videos or something of that nature. None of that worked, right? But as far as the uneducated Economist, I didn't think anybody was going to watch it. Like, I didn't have any expectations of a single

view comment subscriber none of that stuff. Like I had none of that in my mind. I put out the first video saying I'm going to put out videos to help my friends and family help better understand what's going on with the economy. And at that point, I was thinking I'm just going to make a personal journal. Like that's what the uneducated Economist is going to be. It's just my own personal journal. And I'm going to like post some of the things that I was thinking about and some of the articles that I was finding. And this is how we're. And this is. This is how I'm going to build this Channel without any expectations of ever having a single viewer, right? It's just my personal, my personal journal. And you can experience some of it if you like. And when I took that attitude towards it, other people were like, Dude, you're pretty genuine with this stuff, right? You're not hiding who you are, you know? I mean, I drive an old crappy car. I had this really torn up jacket, you know.

I mean, it was just like, Hey man, this is - I mean, I just got off at work. This is what I'm doing. This is the things that I've read. And I just kept it that way, right? Well, being honest, being truthful, and really giving up on some of the pleasurable things that I was chasing, like mainly alcohol, right? And moving more towards excellence, trying to expand my understanding of economics and sharing those views. You can't help it, like if you have that sort of attitude towards things, like, I'm going to be helpful, I'm going to be useful, I'm going to pursue excellence. I'm not going to necessarily chase pleasurable experience unless they just happen to come, but I'm not going to pursue those things, right? Mainly like, you know, getting high or whatever, or being lazy or whatever, right? Stop doing those things, you know? Like, you know, every single moment of every single day of what you are doing is pursuing excellence, or if you're chasing pleasure, right? And you know that when you're chasing excellence and you do it.

regularly, the feeling that you get from it is a feeling of being high, even though you don't get high, right? You just have a higher vibration, feeling of being in a good position, working hard, seeing a better outcome, having goals, you know, out there. Once you start doing that, it's not like it's a surprise. Like, it is a surprise at first, but it's not a surprise after you get to thinking about it. That the Universe starts picking up on this. They're like, Hey man, you're putting out Good Vibrations, right? Guess what? Good things start coming back from that. It takes a while. You have to be in it for a while in order for these things, for the universe to go out there and start finding these things that are going to be attracted towards you, right? And start drifting those things towards you. You have to be open and accepting of it, but you can't pursue it, right? Because the moment that you pursue it, it starts running from you. The universe starts forcing it away, right? You have to just

allow these things to just naturally progress and move forward with it. Even like, you know, me trying to expand this channel in a lot of ways, I feel like I've limited myself by not pursuing a lot of the things that could be making me money. Right? But then I think to myself, it was just like, are you pursuing the money or are you pursuing the excellence of putting out good information and doing it right? Because if you do that, it doesn't matter, the money will flow. So don't worry about the money part, worry about getting good information out there, and that's it. And like, you know, you just keep it simple like that, and the universe is pretty simple in response to it. Like, it'll, it takes time, literally, like, it may take years, and people get frustrated and say, Man, I put out the good vibrations, I waited a couple of months, nothing came from it, you're a liar. Right? And it was like, you didn't give enough time, you gave up before the magic.

occurred you have to carry that vibration constantly forever, and it will just be there. It will just start occurring. It's like magic. You all righty, guys, what time is it? All right, I got like four, five minutes left here. Vibrations in the universe is real. Yeah, thank you very much. Well, yeah, did I get a wow? All right, uh, what is the name here? A inch, an inch FL, flutter FL real Bob, and I'm sorry, man. Thank you very much for the $25, man, very generous of you. Hey, Simon, awesome video this weekend on the Lumber Market, wealth of knowledge. Sent you an email with Lumber quotes. Would you would love to get your opinion on whether it seems in line in today's market. Thanks for all you do. Well, thank you very much for the $25, and I will check that out this evening. Um, I'll try and get a response back to that email. I very much appreciate the 25 bucks, and I'll take a look at that. Um, all right, let's see, what time is it?

okay, yeah, I got to go here. Do you see many millionaires being out of touch with today's real economy, like the meetups you go to? I feel like people like Robert Kiyosaki don't reflect what is actually happening. I don't mean to talk negative about any of those guys, but yeah, they are very much disconnected from the common dude. They don't, I mean, and it's not like they don't know 'cause a lot of them have experienced downtime, like, you know, like they were like, Hey, there was a time I was broke, didn't have anything, didn't know what I was going to do in life, right? And then they figured it out. And so, it's not like it's uncommon for some of these guys to have acquired wealth from a very low position. So, it's not like they don't understand what it's like to have been broke or not have any money or, you know, whatever, be super in deep. However, experiencing this today is different than what it was back then. So, even a few

years ago, like, you know, you think about it, if you were back in the 40s or 50s or 60s and you were broke, at whatever you could still like end up with a house, right? But if you're broke at 40 years old right now and you have no idea of business or anything else, it's going to be very difficult to try and get out of that, especially considering today's environment, right? So it's not like they don't know what the feeling is like, but the experience of trying to deal with today's economy in this huge separation between the rich and the poor is very different experience from what it was just a few years ago, all right? So there is a very big disconnect that is happening with that. There were opportunities inside of real estate that were presented a few years ago that just aren't there for people nowadays, right? So now you have to get very creative in the way that you are going to get in in real estate. Now, those creative ways of

the way you get into it can be discussed by some of these people who do understand that you are in this position, and that it's going to take different effort than what they went through, right? But do they understand necessarily the feelings that you now have when you have to show up for work, and you have a flat tire, and you don't have any funds, and tires are super expensive, and there's nobody running public transit anymore 'cause they shut that down. And this is the type of like thing, right? Yeah, it's a stressful experience, much like everybody had a stressful experience in the day, but it's a much more stressful experience for today to try and get on the other side of the wedge because that gap has grown so much. So, I do feel that they not necessarily are not of understanding, but they don't necessarily are able to carry the same feelings in what it is that we have to go through now in order to get to the level of success that a lot of these people

have have acquired like their ease to get there was a was so much like it was so much easier for them to get there than it would be for us today to to achieve the same level. That gap is getting wider and wider, and that's the difference inside of it. So, but you know, I think that could probably be said for them back in their day. Like it was easier for the previous generations to acquire the level of wealth that they had acquired, right? And then from so on and so on, this is going to be the case going down. You know, I I mean, I just love to hear people say it was just like, well, we had it tough back in our day too. And it was just like, okay, yeah, I know. That's really cool to nice story to hear, but yeah, an average job could buy a house. So we can't do that nowadays. So don't give me that, you know, back in our day, it was tough too, right? Back in your day, you didn't have communications like we have today. So we

have it a hell of a lot easier when we want to, you know, communicate with somebody that's cool, whatever, like big difference. It doesn't matter, right? Like things are different, they always are going to be different. The fact is, is that you had it tough in your day, but yet your main 9 to-5 job was going to be able to provide you with a way of life. Today, our good job sucks. So, what are you going to do? All right, I got to go back to work, guys. Uneducated Economist, thank you very much for being here. We got 39 92 people watching with 183 likes. Please go hit that like button. The YouTube algorithm will love it. They'll pick up the video, they'll spread it around for more people to join in, and you can come back and join in in some of the comments and hear what it is that other people have to say about some of the experiences they are having within their new construction market, the lumber market, or just generally feeling in the economy. Uneducated Economist, you guys.

Lumber Is Proof Of A Crashing Economy

Uneducated Economist

목재 가격이 크게 하락하여 현금 가격이 1,000개당 438달러까지 거래되고 있어 제재소들이 수익 창출에 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

수요가 적은 목재는 공급이 과잉인 반면, 수요가 많은 다른 품목은 재고 고갈에 직면하여 가격이 급격히 하락하고 있습니다.

구매자 부족으로 인한 신축 건설 시장의 신중한 입장으로 인해 건축업자들은 저렴한 목재 가격에도 불구하고 프로젝트를 보류하고 있습니다.

주택 시장은 허가 발급 및 주택 착공 감소에서 알 수 있듯이 신규 건설이 둔화되고 있습니다.

이는 가격 측면이 아니라 경제 활동의 위축이라는 측면에서 주택 시장의 붕괴를 의미합니다.

주택에 대한 높은 수요와 제한된 재고로 인해 주택 가격이 계속 상승하고 있으며, 가격을 낮추기 위한 열쇠는 건설업체의 심리와 신규 건설 증가에 있습니다.

자연재해가 경제에 미치는 영향

자연재해는 고급 주택과 야적장 재고품을 교체하는 데 일부 비용이 발생할 수 있지만, 국내 경제 활동을 창출하여 경제를 활성화할 수 있습니다.

수리 및 재건 과정에서 상당한 양의 경제 활동이 창출되며, 주로 국내에서 발생합니다.

또한 재고를 많이 보유한 매장은 운영 비용이 많이 들지만, 다양한 판매 기회를 포착하고 고객 수요를 충족하기 위해서는 재고 확보가 필수적입니다.

인구 고령화가 주택 시장에 미치는 영향

인구 고령화로 인해 많은 수의 주택이 시장에 출시될 것으로 예상되지만, 성인 자녀의 주택 수요로 인해 주택 문제가 완화되지는 않을 수 있습니다.

높은 주택 가격은 정부에서 배포한 자금 등 시중의 과잉 자금과 기업의 단독 주택 구매 추세에 영향을 받습니다.

미국 달러화 강세는 달러 표시 부채를 가진 국가와 기업에 고통을 주는 동시에 주택 공급을 낮게 유지할 가능성이 높습니다.

부동산 소유가 주택에 미치는 영향

부동산 소유주들은 더 많은 부동산을 매입하기 위해 돈을 모아 임대료와 임대료를 인상하고 있으며, 이로 인해 저렴한 주택이 부족해지고 있습니다.

이제 개인이 기관 투자자와 경쟁하기 위해서는 다양한 수입원이 필요하기 때문에 정규직을 통해 주택을 소유하는 전통적인 방법은 더 이상 불가능해졌습니다.

온라인에서 돈을 벌 수 있는 기회가 늘어나면서 어떤 사람들은 주택을 마련할 수 있는 반면, 어떤 사람들은 9-5 근무의 한계로 인해 어려움을 겪는 등 격차가 발생하고 있습니다.

부채 발행이 경제에 미치는 영향

부채 발행은 경제 활동을 촉진하고 부채 기반 경제의 확장에 기여합니다.

부채 기반 화폐의 사용은 장기적으로는 해로운 영향을 미치지만 단기적으로는 경제를 확장할 수 있습니다.

유튜브 채널 '무식한 경제학자'의 성공은 처음에는 금전적 이득을 추구하지 않은 제작자의 진정성 있고 예상치 못한 접근 방식에서 비롯되었습니다.

즐거움보다 우수성을 추구하는 힘

쾌락을 쫓기보다 탁월함을 추구하는 데 집중하면 더 높은 성취감과 성공감을 얻을 수 있습니다.

이러한 사고방식은 우주가 발산하는 '좋은 진동'에 반응하기 때문에 적극적으로 추구하지 않고도 좋은 일이 일어나는 것에 열린 자세를 취하는 것을 포함합니다.

많은 백만장자들은 가난을 경험했음에도 불구하고 평범한 사람들의 현재 경제 현실과 동떨어져 있을 수 있습니다.

커져가는 경제 격차: 그때와 지금

오늘날 부동산과 경제 분야에서 성공을 거두는 것은 빈부 격차로 인해 훨씬 더 어려운 일입니다.

이전 세대는 현재 세대가 직면한 어려움에 비해 부를 축적하고 주택을 구입하는 것이 더 쉬웠습니다.

연사는 경제적 기회와 일자리 조건의 급격한 차이를 강조하면서 "우리 시대의 사고방식"에 대한 좌절감을 표현합니다.