ETF에 투자하기: 장점, 단점 및 권장 사항

특히 미국에서 ETF에 투자하는 것은 "나는 ETF에 투자한다"라는 책에서 설명한 것처럼 투명성, 편의성, 장기적인 성장 잠재력을 제공합니다.

### ETF에 투자하기: 성공을 위한 전략 및 고려 사항
* 💼 불확실한 경제 상황에서는 분산투자를 제공하고 변동성을 낮추기 때문에 **개별 주식보다 ETF**를 추천합니다.
* 📊 테마 ETF에 투자하면 **개별 종목을 고를 필요 없이 신흥 산업에 노출**될 수 있습니다.
* 📈 ETF는 장기간에 걸쳐 **액티브 펀드보다 우수한 성과**를 내는 경우가 많으므로 장기 투자에 특히 적합합니다.
* 💰 미국은 강력한 비즈니스 환경과 글로벌 경제에서 지배적인 위치를 차지하고 있기 때문에 **ETF 투자에 가장 적합한 국가**로 추천됩니다.
* 🏭 반도체 산업은 글로벌 가치 사슬의 핵심 플레이어로 **미국, 대만, 일본이 꼽히는** 등 ETF 투자 유망 섹터로 주목받고 있습니다.
* 🏦 성공적인 ETF 투자를 위해서는 **정부 정책과 중앙은행 조치를 포함한 거시경제 요인**을 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🌐 AI 및 플랫폼 기술의 발전과 함께 미국으로 향하는 글로벌 자본의 흐름은 **미국 중심의 ETF 투자 추천**을 더욱 뒷받침합니다.
* 📚 "ETF Pro: ETF 투자에 관심이 있는 분들을 위한 종합 리소스로 **"ETF 프로: 수익성 있는 벤처에 투자하기"**를 추천합니다.

Hello everyone, I'm Kyung-in Science. Many of you may have questions about how to invest, especially if you haven't tried investing in ETFs. I think it would be a good idea to learn about this approach today. Please say hello, Kim Jeong-jo. 

Hello, I'm Kim Soo-jung, and I'm excited to introduce myself as the author of a new book. It's nice to be here. I will introduce the book titled I Invest in ETFs: Investing in Profitable Places. Many people invest directly, but there are also those who hope to invest through ETFs. I have recommended ETF investments many times in the past. In fact, I believe that a commodities supercycle is coming in 2022, which I mentioned in the economic outlook for 2022 that I wrote in 2021.

I have recommended raw material ETFs and oil ETFs several times. In the economic outlook I wrote in 2020 and 2021, I included methods for investing in carbon emission trading and climate change response. As the price of carbon emission trading increased, I recommended ETFs that estimate that price, and I received many thanks for that. It seems that people were quite impressed. In the current inflationary era, I advised investing in inflation because the background for inflation is the rise in raw material prices. That's why I mentioned it. In that regard, I am also very interested in ETFs. So, could you please explain why we should invest in ETFs instead of individual stocks? I can summarize the reasons into three main points.

같은데 첫 번째는 제가 여기서 말씀드리기 조금 부끄럽긴 하지만, 경제가 그렇게 좋지 않을 때입니다. 왜냐하면 단일 종목에 경제가 좋지 않을 때 투자를 하시면 낙폭이 상당히 크게 벌어질 수가 있어요. 변동성을 축소해 주는 기능을 가지고 있는 게 ETF입니다. 단일 종목에 투자를 했을 때, 예를 들어서 제가 2022년에 테슬라에 투자를 했다라고 생각을 하면, 테슬라 2022년에 주가는 거의 -50에서 -60% 찍었는데, 제가 그 테슬라를 좋아해서 자율주행이나 전기차 ETF에 투자를 했다면 -30% 내외에서 그쳤을 거거든요. 그래서 내가 어떠한 컨셉을 좋아하건, 아니면 어떠한 종목을 좋아하건 간에, 경제가 그렇게 좋지 않고 주식에 대한 흔들림이 조금 있을 것 같다고 생각하신다면, ETF로 대응해 보시는 것도 방법이라고 저는 생각하고 있습니다. 두 번째는...

When it comes to the theme of innovative growth, it seems uncertain who will be in first place. For example, in the current situation, NVIDIA is claiming to be number one in the semiconductor sector. However, we still do not know who will be number one among platform companies. Microsoft is currently making the most money and was the first to launch, but there are other companies with superior technology that could emerge at any time. While we cannot immediately determine who the winner is, if we invest in an ETF that includes companies within that concept, the stock prices of those included companies will continue to rise, which will also drive up the ETF's price. Companies that fall behind will naturally be eliminated from the ETF, so ultimately, as the winners succeed, the ETF's stock price and returns will improve in the long run.

I would like to give you an example regarding this. I will refer to smartphones a bit. The company that first released the current form of smartphones was not Apple; it was actually Sharp. Do you remember that electronic dictionary company? They were the first to release a mobile phone with a camera, which is the current form of a smartphone. At that time, Nokia held over 50% of the market share in the smartphone segment globally. So, if I had created a smartphone ETF back then, Apple would have definitely been included, and Samsung Electronics would have also been included. This is because, when creating ETF rules, it is necessary to include companies that provide related services or have business plans that involve smartphone-related projects.

Alternatively, based on companies that generate revenue, the ETF Pro typically establishes rules. When looking at those rules, various companies are included. At that time, if you looked at the analyst reports on Apple, they were mostly negative, so it seems you would have found it difficult to invest in Apple since everyone was saying no. However, despite that, if we consider the ETF rules, smaller stocks would have been included as well. Ultimately, the portfolio might have looked like this: Nokia, Motorola, which are now defunct, along with Samsung Electronics, Apple, and Sharp. This probably would have been around 2009. However, at that time, the ETF market itself was not thriving, and there were no ETFs. If it had been created back then, it would have looked like this.

Then, the ETF's returns must have been good, right? Because even if other companies fail, Samsung Electronics and Apple are so large that they can compensate for that with their tremendous growth. So, that's how the ETF works. First, I buy the ETF, and then I naturally start to look at the performance of the stocks included in it. After a couple of years, I see that Apple seems to be doing well, so I add more shares of Apple. This way, it can also serve as a tool for monitoring. Lastly, the third point is long-term investment. You might be surprised to hear this, but originally, there are active funds, right? Fund managers trade stocks in real-time, aiming to outperform the benchmark. When compared to long-term investments, however,

The ETF returns are much better. How can I explain this? When looking at active funds that beat the S&P 500, only about 50% manage to do so in the U.S. each year. This means that half of them win and half lose. In a situation where we could be among those that lose, it is possible to beat the market perfectly in the short term. Of course, for a day or a few months, if I have a return of 10% while the S&P 500 only goes up by 1%, I can win. However, if you are thinking about investing for the long term—2, 3, 5 years, or even up to 10 years—ETFs are generally more suitable. This is because it is difficult to consistently beat the market over such a long period. There is a reason why Warren Buffett advised to simply invest in the S&P 500. He said to invest 90% in the S&P 500 and not to worry about it.

The largest ETF in the world is 500, and since the concept of ETFs started from there, I think it would be good to invest in ETFs in those three situations. You really make a good point. As I listen to you, I recall that the IMF economic outlook report was released not long ago. In that report, they warned that the economy would fall into a low-growth trap over the next five years. The global economic growth rate has been hovering around 3.2, 3.3, and 3.1 this year, last year, and next year, respectively. However, the average growth rate is 3.7%, which means we are consistently moving below the so-called potential growth rate. This is what we refer to as an economic recession. In such a challenging economic environment, I think investing in ETFs could be particularly suitable. Another opinion I would like to share is that, for example, if I want to invest in HBM semiconductors...

Will SK Hynix continue to do well, or will Samsung Electronics successfully supply to NVIDIA in the future? It's difficult for you to visualize this. If you think about continuing with AI, do you have faith in the HBM market? For example, instead of investing in a single company, you could invest in HBM. This is essentially an ETF approach, isn't it? Let's discuss this further. If I were to share my thoughts, I would say that the U.S. economic growth rate is projected to be around 2.5% this year. However, the growth rate of the ICT industry is about 8.8%. If we narrow it down to the AI semiconductor sector within the ICT industry, the growth rate drops to around 20%. Of course, this means that the growth rate of the remaining industries, excluding this sector, is significantly below 2.5%.

Not all industries move together. However, we study macroeconomics or promising industries. We do not study individual companies. While we may look at financial statements or the financial supervisory authority's disclosure system, we do not closely examine which companies to invest in within that market. I believe that blindly jumping onto a specific company without thoroughly studying it can be a poor approach. Of course, studying in that way to find individual companies can be a good method, but if someone does not have the time and resources to invest in that, then investing in the industry itself could be a sound and healthy way to invest. This is why I think about why we should invest in ETFs, as presented in our book.

When you create a revised edition later, how about including it? You wrote the book well, but there's one thing. Looking at the list of recommenders, I noticed that I'm not among them. I couldn't ask because we weren't very close at that time. So, I just wanted to mention that my recommendation is not in the book. Now, moving on to my second question. When we actually trade ETFs, there are definitely advantages and disadvantages. However, distinguishing between the advantages and disadvantages and knowing them when choosing an ETF is different from not doing so, right? So, could you please summarize the advantages and disadvantages? First of all, the biggest advantage is transparency. For example, when compared to funds, in the case of active funds, it is difficult to check which stocks are held and in what proportions at any given moment because they change in real-time. However, with ETFs, you can see this information quarterly or...

The next step is to provide convenience in terms of reporting, and it is our obligation as asset managers to disclose the weightings daily. This allows you to accurately determine how much of your money is invested in which companies and in what proportions. I believe this is a significant advantage. Additionally, you can trade just like you would with stocks. You can search for a specific ETF in the same window where you trade individual stocks, allowing you to execute trades without needing to go through a brokerage or a bank to invest in a fund. I think this ease of trading through MTS or HTS creates a very convenient environment for transactions, which is another advantage of ETFs. However,

There are also disadvantages. For example, in the case of Samsung Electronics, the trading volume is very high. Therefore, the probability of not being able to buy or sell at the desired stock price is low because the bids are very well matched. However, in the case of ETFs, the trading volume is inevitably lower than that of individual stocks. This can lead to discrepancies, and you may not be able to buy or sell at the price you want, which can be a bit frustrating. To prevent this, we recruit liquidity providers, or securities firms, to supply liquidity. Nevertheless, if you are trading very well-known stocks like Samsung Electronics or Nvidia and then open the ETF trading window, you might find that the bids are not as well matched as expected, which can be frustrating. However, this is because it is a fund.

With a bit of understanding, we have an obligation to supply LP 3. There is a duty in place, so it may not diverge significantly, and I think it would be good to keep that in mind. One more thing, while I briefly mentioned the advantages, let me talk about the disadvantages. There is a discrepancy rate. Since it is a fund with a discrepancy rate, for example, I went to bed after seeing that the Nasdaq index rose by 2% at the closing yesterday, assuming you slept through the night. However, when I checked the Nasdaq 100 ETF's return during the day, it wasn't 2%; it was showing a negative return. I thought, What is going on? This discrepancy can be quite uncomfortable, and sometimes people file complaints with our company. At that time, we explain that, for example, the Nasdaq...

After the closing price of the KOSPI, for example, if Meta announces its earnings and the results are very disappointing, the stock may drop by 10% in the after-market. This drop will be reflected in domestic ETFs because we start trading from 9 AM. It’s important to understand that such situations can occur. However, in cases where the discrepancy rate becomes too large, the exchange imposes restrictions, so there shouldn't be a significant divergence. 

One thing I would like to emphasize is that if you are investing in ETFs and the discrepancy rate is in double digits, you should wait for that ETF. For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the discrepancy rate for domestic Russian ETFs reached as high as 30%. That is a serious issue. So, during that time, the ETF...

At that time, you shouldn't buy it. So, when there is a discrepancy rate in the double digits, it's better to wait a bit or think that there might be some issues with the ETF. If it moves around 3% or 6%, it is a discrepancy that can be resolved over time. However, for those who are investing, it might be uncomfortable, so I think it's good to keep that in mind. That's great. When I hear the pros and cons you've mentioned, it seems to me that it's not strictly a pro or a con. Depending on the person, what might be a disadvantage for one could be an advantage for another. For someone who trades frequently, it could be a disadvantage, but for someone who doesn't trade often or has a different tendency, that disadvantage could actually become an advantage. So, I think it's important for you to separate your investment tendencies and realize that what might seem like a disadvantage could actually be an advantage for you.

If you think that there are only those advantages, you can approach it in that way. Anyway, you explained the advantages and disadvantages very well, and I hope you take some time to think about how to internalize that into your own understanding. Naturally, I invest in profitable places through ETF Pro. The second part of this book is about macro analysis, which is absolutely essential. I completely agree; it’s very important. You mentioned that we need to develop the habit of identifying the main players in the market. The main players in the market could be businesses, governments, or even central banks. If households are not included, then what is the significance of macro analysis, and why should we develop the habit of identifying the main players in the market? Could you explain that to me, Professor?

I'm not sure if it's appropriate to say this, but I truly believe that macro analysis is extremely important. For those who are investing, especially in ETFs, I emphasize in my book that it should be done from a top-down approach rather than a bottom-up approach. I personally think that the subscribers of this channel are very intelligent individuals. Yes, that's right. Because if you don't understand the economy, you should always check the IMF economic reports that you mentioned. Even if you find it difficult to interpret all the English, you should at least remember the titles. I wrote in my book that macro analysis is very important, and while the professor provides detailed macro analysis, there may be some people who simply don't have the time for that. So, if I could suggest just one key tip to remember, it would be to focus on the three entities: corporations, governments, and central banks.

I think it would be good to understand what the main factors influencing the stock market and bond market are right now. These aspects may be better known by the professor, but they change over time. For example, in 2020, we experienced the unexpected pandemic known as Black Swan in the financial market. At that time, the government's power was incredibly strong. We had to pay attention to the government's actions. The government granted IT companies the authority to use QR codes, allowing them to access personal information and monitor individuals' activities. As a result, these IT companies were able to collect vast amounts of data. Since the government permitted this, it was inevitable that IT companies would benefit, making 2020 a year for them, largely due to the government's decisions.

I personally think it was because of that, and 2021 was the year of corporations. Many people ask how I know it was the year of corporations. When it's the year of corporations, there are an overwhelming number of IPOs. I am the main character; I need to do an IPO right now because the situation is good, and companies are able to receive favorable stock prices. When corporations are the main characters, IPOs increase, R&D investments rise, and just one statement about what we are going to do can cause stock prices to jump by 5% or 7% in a day. For example, in 2021, Apple announced that it was giving up on the Titan project, and on that day, Apple's stock price rose by more than 5%. That kind of impact happens when corporations are the main characters. However, when the central bank is the main character and talks about raising interest rates, stock prices of companies do not move significantly. So, 2021 was indeed the year of corporations.

I thought 2022 would be the year of central banks, but when it comes to interest rate hikes, economic analysis becomes even more important. So, you need to pay close attention to this channel; I do as well. The outcomes of the FOMC meetings, what Powell says, and how to analyze the dot plot should influence my investment strategy. This has been the case through the first half of 2023 and even into spring. However, one thing we must not overlook is that if there is a revolutionary change in the paradigm, such as AI or electric vehicles transforming the world, then those industries could become the main players regardless of this context. So, who will be the main player in the second half of 2024? Personally, I believe it will be businesses and governments, as they will continue to be influenced by the central banks due to the timing of interest rate hikes. Companies will announce their plans for future projects, and then...

I think it would be good to pay a little attention to the government's stance due to the U.S. presidential election. That's great! I would like to add a few comments as well. So, I think we can summarize the second half of 2024 as an era of pivoting. During the period of interest rate hikes, investors had to be cautious about whether to invest or not, which led to a withdrawal from the market. This withdrawal caused stock prices to adjust in 2022 and 2023. However, starting in 2023, there was an expectation that the interest rate hikes would be coming to an end, which encouraged more investment in the stock market. As money began to flow into that direction, stock prices naturally started to rise. But in the second half of 2024, we will gradually see interest rates being lowered. This will not only happen in the U.S. but globally, as central banks set neutral interest rates and gradually move towards those neutral rates.

Gradually lowering adjustments in such a phase, which companies will perform well? Which companies will properly propose a future blueprint? Ultimately, these factors will determine the stock prices of those companies. Recently, one of the things I often check is a comic explanation of market trends on Investing.com. There are dolls celebrating, one of which is a Powell doll, and then there are dolls representing Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang, and Mark Zuckerberg, as well as other platform companies. It seems that in the second half of 2024, Powell is smiling, and the CEOs of platform and AI companies are also smiling. Ultimately, this market trend is significantly influenced by the performance announcements of companies and the future blueprints they present. So, when money concentrates on a specific market...

Looking into the phenomenon of money concentrating in corporations, it seems that understanding who the main players are is quite interconnected. I can relate to this perspective, and I hope there are aspects that I do not agree with, as I would like to engage in a vigorous discussion. Let's have a debate in Gyeongnam. In the videos, there are discussions of both agreement and disagreement. Sometimes, this creates a sense of tension, but today, there seems to be a lack of tension. 

Now, regarding the book, you mentioned your preferences for ETFs that estimate national representative indices. I think this part needs some explanation. The countries I analyzed are the United States, India, Japan, and China. I have noted my preferences in that order. So, according to the book, the order is the United States, India, Japan, and China, with China being at the bottom. Personally, I...

Ah, I still don't know much about China, so I think it's not very appealing. If you are someone who invests in U.S. ETFs, I believe that the representative U.S. stock ETFs are truly the most beautiful products. This is because the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ETFs are the largest ETFs in the world, attracting a significant amount of people's money for a good reason. Let me share a little secret: you may have thought about this, but the largest ETF in the world is the S&P 500 SPDR ETF, and then there's the QQQ ETF. Not only in Korea but globally, ETF investors in the U.S. are also heavily investing in ETFs. On a daily basis, the amount of money flowing into the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is enormous. However, people continue to buy ETFs; they usually don't sell them much unless they think the market is going to be extremely bad. So then...

The companies included in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are where the money that the professor mentions continues to flow. So, it matters whether I am in the 51st company or the 500th company in the S&P 500; this can affect the stock price of that company. The same goes for the Nasdaq. Depending on whether I am included in the Nasdaq 100 or ranked 200th, the gap can widen significantly. However, the ETF market creates this situation. From the perspective of individual investors, large American institutions, wealthy individual investors, and funds like the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund invest in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs without hesitation, pouring in hundreds of millions or even trillions. For individual investors, it is appealing to think that by allocating some of their funds there, they can ride along with such significant investments.

So, I think it's important to realize that the amount invested globally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is enormous. However, that amount doesn't drop significantly. I believe that there is always a bottom that is established. No matter how much the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fall, they eventually start to rebound because there is a solid amount of capital supporting them, and money is concentrated there globally. This creates the best environment for us as ETF investors. While the disparity among companies is increasing and only the successful ones are thriving, that is something the government needs to consider. From an investor's perspective, it makes sense to choose and invest in successful companies. Therefore, when investing in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs, there is a continuous influx of money.

I think it would be good to understand that there is a high possibility of being formed. The reason I have listed the United States as my top preferred country is, of course, because I have lived there, but also because the U.S. provides a very favorable environment for businesses. What that means is that lobbying by companies to Congress is legal, and there are even professional lobbyists. This ultimately indicates that companies have more power than the government, and when companies are strong, investors are more likely to invest in them, creating a more positive environment. To summarize my point about investing in representative U.S. companies, I would say that the U.S. is a country where capitalism is fundamental, and since investments are created by capitalism, I recommend investing in countries where capitalism is the foundation. I find this part very interesting, and I have been listening closely, but I have a question to ask.

I thought about it, and I really think I can relate. The reason is that money is flowing out of China. That's right, I see that too. And money is being concentrated in the United States. You mentioned that money is flowing out and going to the U.S., but where is the money that is flowing in coming from? It is coming out of China. I have explained it very clearly. I am currently finalizing my economic outlook for 2025. Yes, yes, the movement of money and its direction is very important, and it is clearly depicted like this. 

It is clear that the economic growth rate of China, which once grew by 14%, has now dropped to around 4%, with rates of 8%, 6%, and 5% in between. Looking long-term, the growth rate is expected to slow down to around 3% by 2029. However, among G7 countries, the only country where the growth rate in 2029 is projected to be higher than in 2023 is the United States. This indicates that money is increasingly being concentrated in the U.S.

It's an environment where there is no choice but to rely on the strong dollar, especially compared to other countries. This situation is likely to persist for a long time, leading to a concentration of money in that direction. Additionally, from a geopolitical perspective, it is expected that the geopolitical tensions in the next ten years will be more intense than in the past decade. As a result, to hedge against this uncertainty, there is a preference for safe assets, which typically include U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar. This trend is causing a stronger movement of money towards the United States. 

Moreover, there is the factor of AI. But who is leading in AI? It's the platform era, and who leads the platforms? As we can see, many AI and platform companies dominate the market, and consequently, money is flowing towards those companies.

I hope this provides some reference for the flow of the discussion. Let's discuss the issue of the possibility of Trump's election. If we consider the opinions, the likelihood of Trump being elected is increasing. However, there is no one else who has such a strong inclination towards America First as he does. Many citizens follow him, despite the incidents that have occurred. As a result, the policies and promises stemming from America First include lowering corporate taxes and attracting the lowest corporate tax rates among OECD countries. The message is clear: corporations, come to America and operate here. Additionally, there is a plan to impose high tariffs and limit imports from other countries, aiming to make the U.S. a leading exporter. This will encourage reshoring, allowing companies to export from the U.S. and transform the country into an exporting nation. Furthermore, regarding oil...

The largest producer is the daily production volume. In this regard, it is good for international oil prices to rise and create tension. From various perspectives, one of Trump's strong drives will naturally be to withdraw from the climate change agreement. This is very important because climate change regulations can be a significant burden on companies. It is necessary, not that it is unnecessary, but it is indeed a burden for those companies. The likelihood of strong regulatory requirements is increasing, and if Trump truly leads the entire country of the United States as the head of the administration, it will be more American. Even if that is not the case, it is still America. From various perspectives, if you are considering investing in a national representative index and are interested in ETFs, I agree with the recommendation of American ETFs that you mentioned.

In this book, there are discussions about various countries, and one of the key topics is that we need to invest in innovative growth themes, particularly in industries. The second chapter focuses on semiconductors, emphasizing the importance of investing in future growth industries. I would like to share a valuable tip with our readers. The reason I mentioned semiconductors first is that both our domestic investors and I have a strong interest in this sector. 

First, I would like to talk about the global value chain in semiconductors and explain that there are many ETFs available for investment in this area. The semiconductor industry began with the creation of semiconductors, and it seems that the United States is the starting point for everything. Ultimately, the U.S. semiconductor industry, particularly in the field of system semiconductors, is expected to play a significant role in the future.

The field expected to generate the most profit is, for example, semiconductors. If the price of a semiconductor is 1 million won, then 300,000 won of that value comes from system semiconductors. The United States excels in system semiconductors, holding about 65% of the market share. Ultimately, I believe that these American semiconductor companies will continue to thrive, regardless of the cycles that come. When I look at the industry, I think it should be viewed as an innovative growth industry, focusing on R&D rather than just sales and operating profit margins. This is because, in the U.S. semiconductor sector, whether it’s system semiconductors, design, or IP, a significant amount of money is invested. It is capital-intensive and ultimately driven by ideas that come from people's minds. So, then...

I believe that the countries that currently dominate the semiconductor industry are likely to maintain their competitive edge in the future. When we look at the major countries, the R&D spending in relation to semiconductor sales shows that the United States is overwhelmingly high and has been so far, and it is expected to continue this way. This is something we can confirm. In the U.S., many companies are fabless, meaning that companies like IBM, while not a fabless company itself, ultimately rely on fabless companies, which leads to partnerships with foundries in Taiwan. TSMC, a foundry company, is based in Taiwan. The best way to invest in the semiconductor value chain is to purchase shares in the U.S. semiconductor index. This is because the U.S. semiconductor index includes TSMC, the Dutch company ASML, and all the foundry companies, as well as U.S. fabless companies.

I'm not really sure, but I think the semiconductor industry will do well. So, if you're looking to invest, I believe investing in ETFs would be the most comfortable option. I want to focus a bit more on foundries, and I think TSMC will continue to perform well. No matter how much Trump hits China, I somewhat agree that it's nearly impossible for China to catch up with TSMC's technology. Therefore, I would prefer ETFs that are more focused on TSMC. There are also those who invest in the value chain while holding about 30% of TSMC as a single stock. I've organized the value chain in my notes, which includes the U.S., Taiwan, Japan, and then Korea. In the case of Japan, there was news yesterday about potential tariffs from the FDPR, and the companies mentioned included Tokyo Electron.

ASML is a Dutch company, while Tokyo Electron is a Japanese company. Both are representative semiconductor companies of their respective countries. However, if we don't pay attention to exports related to China or imports related to China, there are discussions about imposing tariffs. It's not that tariffs will definitely be imposed, but I believe that the preference for the U.S. semiconductor industry is the highest. Following that, the foundry sector is unique, and then Japan comes next. As mentioned earlier, whether it's targeting China or Europe, South Korea's HBM technology is globally recognized, which could actually be seen positively. Personally, I think that in the overall value chain, which includes system semiconductors, memory semiconductors, HBM, and GPUs, all these components need to be integrated.

The leading country in this role is the United States, and if someone has to be entrusted with a foundry, companies would prefer to work with TSMC first, followed by Samsung Electronics. In this value chain, there are many detailed equipment manufacturers from Japanese semiconductor companies. This is because Japan is a country known for its precision and expertise. They put a lot of effort into semiconductor equipment and are at the top of very intricate processes. Competing with them is quite challenging on a global scale. Therefore, the preference for Japanese semiconductor equipment continues. Additionally, regarding HBM, our country has a strong hold on that market. The primary reason for discussing this global semiconductor value chain is that, according to the AI revolution, AI hardware will emerge first, followed by software, and then we will enter the era of services, in my personal opinion.

We are currently in the era of AI hardware, and soon we will enter the software era. Because we are in the hardware era, semiconductor companies are benefiting the most. However, once the facilities and data centers are fully completed, the next question will be who will take the lead in AI software. After that, we will transition into the service sector. This reflects the trends in the value chain. First, I would like to discuss the semiconductor industry, which we are currently facing. If I go into more detail here, it would take more than two hours, so I recommend looking at the book for more information. Yes, I really appreciated your insights. I am interested in the book ETF Pro: Investing in Profitable Ventures. Could you elaborate on the definition of ETFs, their pros and cons, and any recommendations?

I have talked a lot about various ETFs. Next time, I hope to be invited again to discuss the topics we couldn't cover. Finally, I would like to give some advice to potential readers who are interested in ETF investments. I always emphasize that when approaching ETFs, you should consider your financial situation and your life cycle. The conclusion of my book ultimately states that depending on whether you are nearing retirement or in your twenties as a new member of society, you should manage your ETF portfolio differently. I personally believe that suddenly everyone talking about a specific ETF and investing all at once is not a good approach. It would be beneficial to develop the habit of creating a diversified portfolio.

I hope this helps you in understanding how to structure your portfolio and how to approach ETF Pro. This book presents ETFs in a clear and straightforward manner, almost like an encyclopedia. I have only covered a portion of it, so for those interested in ETFs, I recommend studying this book. Now, let's wrap up our discussion with our manager. Perhaps we can have him back next time to share more insights that we couldn't cover today. That sounds great! I look forward to seeing you again. Thank you!

[풀버전] 5년간 저성장 국면. 지금은 '이것'에 주목할 때 [경읽남과 토론합시다] | 김수정 선임매니저

경제를 "빠르고 쉽게" 들려드리는 경제 읽어주는 남자, 김광석입니다.

경제전망, 경제동향, 경제 트렌드, 산업 동향, 경제/산업 이슈, 기업 정보, 주식 및 부동산 투자 정보 등을 여러분과 공유하도록 하겠습니다.

'경제 읽어주는 남자TV' 채널은 크게 4가지 시리즈로 구성되어 있습니다.
[경읽남] : 매주 하나씩 경제공부 하세요~ (월 저녁 6시)
[책인싸] : '책'을 통해 '핵인싸'를 만나, '인싸이트'를 얻는다. (수, 금 저녁 6시)
[즉시분석] : 경제 속보를 심층분석한다. (수시)
[클로즈업] : 경제를 더 가까이.... 여러분께서 궁금해 하시는 경제이슈를, 더 가까이 다가가 말씀드릴게요~ (수시)
[경읽남과토론합시다] : 일방적인 인터뷰가 아닌 쌍방의 대담 형식의 토론(수시)


∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥∥

[경제 읽어주는 남자, 김광석]
*주요경력
한양대학교 겸임교수
한국경제산업연구원 경제연구실장
(전)삼정KPMG 경제연구원 수석연구원
(전)현대경제연구원 선임연구원

*주요활동
산업통상자원부, 국토교통부, 행정안전부, 외교부, 기획재정부, 중소벤처기업부, 통계청 자문위원
국가공무원인재개발원, 한국금융연수원, IGM세계경영연구원 등 자문교수
삼성금융연수원, 삼성인력개발원, LG인화원, IMI국제경영원 등 외래교수
KBS, MBC, SBS, JTBC, YTN 등 경제평론
매일경제, 중앙일보, 국민일보, 아주경제, 매경이코노미 등 경제시론

*Business Contact(출연, 제휴 등 비즈니스 목적에 한해 회신 드립니다.)
Tel. 02 451 2353
Blog. https://blog.naver.com/toughkingca
Email. gsk@hanyang.ac.kr


경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)

ETF는 경기 침체기에 안정성을 제공하므로 개별 주식에 투자하는 것보다 큰 손실 가능성을 줄여줍니다.

특정 컨셉에 속한 기업을 포함하는 ETF에 투자하면 승자가 성공함에 따라 장기적으로 주가와 수익률이 향상될 수 있습니다.

ETF는 특정 규칙에 따라 다양한 기업을 편입할 수 있기 때문에 개별 투자에는 적합하지 않을 수 있는 소규모 주식에 투자할 수 있는 기회를 제공합니다.

ETF는 장기 투자 시 시중의 액티브 펀드보다 높은 수익률을 제공합니다.

저성장 함정이 예상되는 등 어려운 경제 환경에서는 ETF에 투자하는 것이 특히 적합합니다.

또한 ETF는 산업 전체에 투자할 수 있는 건전하고 건전한 방법을 제공하며, 편입된 종목의 성과를 모니터링할 수 있는 투명성과 유연성을 제공합니다.

ETF의 일일 가중치를 공개하면 정확한 투자 추적이 가능하고 쉽게 거래할 수 있습니다.

ETF는 개별 주식과 같은 창에서 거래할 수 있는 편리함을 제공하지만 개별 주식보다 거래량이 적어 매매가 불일치가 발생할 수 있습니다.

ETF의 높은 괴리율은 투자자에게 불편할 수 있지만 개인의 거래 성향에 따라 단점으로 보일 수 있는 것이 오히려 장점이 될 수도 있습니다.

투자 전략에서 거시적 분석의 중요성

거시적 분석은 기업, 정부, 중앙은행 등 시장의 주요 플레이어를 파악하고 경제에서 이들의 중요성을 이해하는 데 매우 중요합니다.

2020년의 정부 우위에서 2021년 기업의 부상으로의 변화에서 볼 수 있듯이 이러한 주체들이 주식 및 채권 시장에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 데 필수적입니다.

특히 2024년 하반기에 주요 플레이어의 변화가 예상되는 상황에서 FOMC 회의, 파월 의장의 발언, AI와 전기자동차의 부상과 같은 패러다임 변화에 대한 분석은 투자 전략을 세우는 데 필수적입니다.

2024년 하반기의 변화하는 시장 트렌드

이 시기는 금리 인상으로 인한 초기 경계감이 시장을 위축시켰지만, 2023년 금리 인상 종료에 대한 기대감이 커지면서 주식 시장 투자가 증가했습니다.

2024년 하반기에는 전 세계적으로 금리가 점진적으로 인하되면서 플랫폼 및 AI 기업의 실적과 향후 계획에 영향을 받아 긍정적인 흐름이 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

S&P 500 및 나스닥 100 ETF는 계속해서 상당한 규모의 투자를 유치하며 편입 기업의 주가에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

글로벌 자금의 움직임: S&P 500, 나스닥 100, 중국, 미국

S&P 500과 나스닥 100 지수는 글로벌 자본의 강력한 지원으로 꾸준히 반등하고 있어 ETF 투자자에게 우호적인 환경이 조성되고 있습니다.

특히 지정학적 긴장이 고조되는 가운데 중국과 미국으로 자금이 집중되면서 미국의 경제 성장률이 다른 국가를 능가할 가능성이 높아지고 있습니다.

AI 및 플랫폼 기업의 리더십이 자금의 이동을 주도하고 있으며, 트럼프의 재선 가능성은 미국 우선 정책에 초점을 맞추고 낮은 세금과 리쇼어링 추진을 약속하며 기업의 미국 내 운영을 유도할 것을 시사합니다.

미국 반도체 산업, 특히 시스템 반도체는 미국이 시장 점유율의 약 65%를 차지하며 향후 수익에 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 예상됩니다.

반도체 매출 대비 높은 R&D 지출과 팹리스 기업의 보급은 미국의 경쟁력에 기여하고 있습니다.

미국 반도체 지수에는 주요 기업과 파운드리가 포함되어 있으며, 특히 TSMC의 실적 호조에 초점을 맞춘 투자를 추천합니다.

글로벌 반도체 산업과 AI 하드웨어의 영향력

ASML은 네덜란드의 선도적인 반도체 기업이고 도쿄 일렉트론은 일본의 주요 기업으로, 두 기업 모두 중국과 관련된 잠재적 관세에 직면해 있습니다.

현재 미국 반도체 산업이 가장 선호되고 있으며, 파운드리 부문과 일본이 그 뒤를 잇고 있습니다.

글로벌 반도체 가치 사슬은 AI 하드웨어 시대의 영향을 많이 받고 있으며, 미국이 이러한 전환을 주도한 후 AI 소프트웨어, 서비스 부문으로의 전환이 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.

"ETF Pro: 수익성 있는 벤처에 투자하기"는 ETF에 대한 포괄적인 인사이트와 장단점을 제공하고 잠재 투자자를 위한 권장 사항을 제시하며 개인의 재무 상황과 라이프사이클에 따른 다각화된 포트폴리오의 중요성을 강조합니다.