유동성 압박과 주식 시장 조정에 대한 우려

### 유동성 문제로 인한 주식 시장 조정 가능성 분석
* 📉 발표자는 유동성 문제와 금리 인하 가능성으로 인해 **7월 또는 8월에 단기적으로 주식 시장이 조정될 것**으로 예상합니다.
* 💰 유동성 감소는 **단기 국채 금리가 제로 금리 이하**로 떨어지면서 8월에 유동성 압박으로 이어졌기 때문입니다.
* 🏦 재무부는 통화 공급을 늘리기 위해 **단기 채권 발행을 늘리고 있지만** 유동성 위축을 막기에는 충분하지 않을 수 있습니다.
* 🏛 Fed Watch 차트에 따르면 연방준비제도이사회는 9월에 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상되며, **시장 예상치는 90%에 달합니다.**
* 📆 연사는 **9월 중순까지 조정이 지속될 수 있으며, FOMC 회의와 잭슨홀 심포지엄이 열리는 시기**와 맞물려 있다고 전망했습니다.
* 🔍 조정의 잠재적 바닥은 **8월 24일 전후**로 예상되지만, 시장 상황과 연준의 조치에 따라 변동될 수 있습니다.
* 🗳 또한 연사는 **다가오는 대선에 대한 주식 시장의 잠재적 영향**을 강조하며 시장 성과의 중요성을 강조합니다.
* 🔮 발표자는 시청자에게 조정이 발생하더라도 당황하지 말고 **오히려 매수 기회**로 생각하라는 조언과 함께 **예측의 불확실성**을 인정하며 마무리합니다.

단기 금리가 장기 금리를 밑돌면서 유동성이 위축될 가능성이 있어 8월까지 주식 시장이 단기적으로 조정될 수 있습니다.

I expected a short-term adjustment to come from the end of June to July or August. In April, the 10-year government bond yield soared to 4.7%, creating a temporarily tight monetary environment. As a result, from May, the growth rate slowed down, the unemployment rate rose, and prices fell. Therefore, I mentioned that concerns about an economic downturn would dominate the market in the third quarter. I believe that this fear of an economic slowdown is merely a superficial reason for a short-term correction. So, I think there are other reasons behind this, and among them, the most crucial reason is the reduction of liquidity. I expected a short-term correction to enter the market at the end of February or in March or April. At that time, I explained that in the second quarter, the issuance of short-term government bonds would decrease, while the issuance of long-term government bonds would increase, leading to a reduction in liquidity.

I mentioned that there would be a temporary contraction, but looking at the 3rd quarter government bond issuance plan, the short-term bond issuance will actually increase in the 3rd quarter. So theoretically, there will be additional liquidity in the 3rd quarter. How can there be a liquidity contraction in August? I would like to share my thoughts on this with you. So let's start. The Ministry of Finance has been increasing short-term bond issuances since 2023 to increase the money supply by increasing the currency velocity. As expected, the short-term bond issuance will also increase in the 3rd quarter. Superficially, liquidity will continue to be supplied in the 3rd quarter. However, what concerns me the most is the FMC in July.

Powell testified before the Senate and House hearings and hinted at a rate cut. Powell mentioned that it would be a problem if rates were lowered too quickly or too slowly. Therefore, the market accepted that they would start the rate cut in the September FOMC meeting. If you look at the Fed Watch chart, the market is currently pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in September. Now, the issue arises from here. If the Fed officially hints at a rate cut in the July FOMC meeting, they will likely cut rates in the September FOMC meeting. This creates a gap of about one month, leading to issues. Currently, the 1-month and 3-month short-term government bond yields are around 5.3% to 5.4%, and the overnight rate is at 5.3%.

We will start going down. However, the interest rate in England has been fixed at 5.3% until last month. So, short-term interest rates can momentarily go down below the English rate. The problem is that the Ministry of Finance has been increasing short-term debt issuances, supplying liquidity to the market. In this process, hedge funds have been buying assets with significant leverage. In simple terms, hedge funds purchase a 1-month government bond at 5.4%, then use the same money to borrow through the repo market at around 5.33% interest. Then they buy the 1-month government bond again at 5.4%. This process is repeated 100 or even 1,000 times without limits.

You can safely raise a very high return with little money because if you repeat 100 times by 0.1, a profit rate of 10% will occur. In this way, redemption funds have been continuously purchasing short-term bonds. If in July, the FMC interest rate officially indicates that the short-term national interest rate falls below zero, redemption funds will no longer be able to purchase short-term national bonds unlimitedly. In that case, in August, there will be a shortage of short-term national bonds. Instead, there is a high possibility that funds that have purchased short-term national bonds will face a 0% concentration risk. Because if you receive 5.2% for short-term bonds, putting it at zero will make it 5.3%. Rather than buying short-term bonds, it's better to just leave it at zero. If this happens, there may be a sudden liquidity squeeze in the market for a month in August.

I expect that there will be a short-term correction in the stock market. Of course, on the surface, fears of an economic downturn are expected to dominate the market along with the Trump issue. However, deep down, I anticipate that the liquidity contraction caused by short-term interest rates falling below long-term rates will outweigh the short-term correction. Therefore, a short-term correction could continue until mid-September, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled. There will be a Jackson Hole meeting from August 22nd to 24th. If the correction deepens in August, the Fed is likely to come up with measures at the Jackson Hole meeting. So, currently, I expect around August 24th to be the bottom, but second-quarter earnings will be announced. As you all may know, NVIDIA is showing explosive revenue and operating profit growth rates. If NVIDIA's performance falters, other stocks will also be in trouble.

I'm scared. So, in the end, for the stock index to rise further in the future, NVIDIA has to rise. That means the stock price needs to re-enter the rising momentum by the end of August. Therefore, I think the stock price might hit bottom around August 24th. However, there is a way to avoid liquidity tightening in August. So, we need to consider the second option. The second option is to implement an interest rate cut by the FOMC in July. If the interest rate cut by the FOMC in July happens, the domestic interest rate will also drop by 0.25%, just like short-term government bond rates. In this case, short-term government bond rates can stay above the federal funds rate. Therefore, you should keep in mind the possibility of an interest rate cut by the FOMC in July as the second option. However, in order for the interest rate cut by the FOMC in July to continue, on July 30th...

Alternatively, by the standard of July 30th, SNP should have dropped by at least 5 to 6% from its peak. If there is a decrease of around 5 to 6% from the SNP peak on July 30th, an interest rate cut by the FMC in July should be implemented. If not, in August, if short-term government bond yields fall below zero rates, causing problems in the short-term government bond supply and liquidity rapidly dries up, stock prices will further decline. If the bottom of the SNP rising channel is broken, it will not be able to maintain an upward trend until the presidential election. As a result, if stock prices do not rise significantly before the presidential election, the likelihood of the Democratic Party suffering a defeat will increase. Therefore, I believe it is essential to pay attention to or actually implement an interest rate cut by the FMC in July. Today's content was quite challenging. I wonder if my thoughts have been properly conveyed to you.

I don't know. Well, if I may say one last thing, we cannot know for sure if the short-term bottom will be in July or August. Depending on the decision the Fed makes at the July FOMC meeting, July could be the bottom, or it could be August. However, one thing we can be sure of is that if a short-term correction comes in July or August and the stock prices plummet, it is not the time to sell but rather an opportunity to buy. Therefore, even if the stock prices fall, I believe there is no need to be afraid. I expect both stocks and bonds to be shocked by the presidential election. Therefore, I think you can enjoy this bubble. Just a reminder, as always, this is my personal opinion, and there is a high possibility that I am wrong. I hope you can just see this as how this person thinks. Well then, let's wrap up today's video here, and I will continue in the next session.

8월 유동성 위기 온다? 단기 조정의 근본적인 이유 (국채 수급 문제, 역레포 충전)

천재전명훈

변동하는 국채 수익률과 경제 전망

7%까지 급등하면서 일시적으로 긴축적인 통화 환경이 조성되었고 5월부터 성장률, 실업률, 물가에도 영향을 미쳤습니다.

단기 시장 조정은 당초 경기 침체에 대한 우려 때문이었지만, 3분기 단기 채권 발행이 증가할 것으로 예상되는 가운데 유동성 감소가 가장 큰 원인으로 지목되고 있습니다.

2023년 이후 재무부의 단기채권 발행이 크게 증가하면서 유동성 증가가 예상되지만, 7월 금융통화위원회와 8월 유동성 위축 가능성에 대한 우려가 남아있습니다.

파월의 증언과 금리 인하 가능성

파월 의장의 증언은 9월 FOMC 회의에서 금리 인하 가능성을 암시했으며, 현재 시장은 90%의 확률로 금리 인하를 예상하고 있습니다.

공식적인 암시와 금리 인하 사이에 한 달의 공백이 발생할 경우 단기 금리에 문제가 발생할 수 있습니다.

재무부의 단기채권 발행 증가와 헤지펀드의 자산 매입에 상당한 레버리지를 사용하는 것도 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

FMC 금리가 투자 전략 및 주식 시장에 미치는 잠재적 영향

금리가 제로 이하로 떨어지면 상환기금의 무제한 단기 국채 매입이 중단되어 채권 부족과 집중 위험이 발생할 수 있습니다.

이로 인해 시장의 유동성 압박과 주식시장의 단기 조정이 발생할 수 있으며, 이는 9월 중순까지 지속될 가능성이 있습니다.

다가오는 잭슨홀 미팅과 엔비디아의 2분기 실적도 시장 방향에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

향후 주가지수 움직임에 영향을 미치는 요인

향후 주가지수 상승을 위해서는 NVIDIA의 실적이 중요합니다.

유동성 긴축을 피하기 위한 두 번째 옵션으로 7월 FOMC의 금리 인하가 제시되고 있습니다.

7월 30일까지 국고채 금리가 고점 대비 5~6% 하락하지 않으면 단기 국채 공급에 문제가 생겨 주가가 추가 하락할 수 있습니다.

단기 주식 시장의 불확실성과 이것이 주는 기회

주식시장의 단기 바닥은 불확실하며 7월 FOMC 회의에서 연준의 결정에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

잠재적인 조정과 관계없이 매도보다는 매수 기회로 보고 있습니다.

발표자는 시청자에게 이를 개인적인 의견으로 간주할 것을 권장하며 틀릴 가능성이 있음을 밝힙니다.