Interpretations were mixed about the results of the FOMC meeting yesterday, but through the time, it was said that they couldn't give a proper answer regarding interest rates, timing, and magnitude. Investors who were eagerly waiting for the September interest rate day this morning might have been quite surprised by the sharp drop in U.S. stock prices. Today, we have prepared a time to unravel this curiosity. We have invited Hansangchun, an editorial writer from the Korea Economic Daily. Hello. Hello. So, for the investors who were eagerly waiting for the September interest rate, they must have been quite surprised today. Could you please start by summarizing that content? Yes, if the September interest rate cut was a certainty, many expected the stock prices to rise today. However, the stock prices fell sharply instead. As expected, it all comes down to how the results of the July FOMC meeting are interpreted. Many people

Now, it was mentioned that interest rates will be directly managed by me in September, but I did not specify the exact timing. For example, it was mentioned that the proposal for raising interest rates in September will be put forward. In the past, when a proposal was made, it was decided after raising the key interest rate by how much, besides other factors. Also, you mentioned how the market's expectations for the interest rate hike will be managed. It was mentioned that there was a talk of a 175 basis point increase. Until last year, none of these were mentioned here. So, if what the market expected did not happen, it actually amplified the market's uncertainty. Therefore, in the market, instead of positive news, it can only be more sensitive to negative news.

Actually, today the PMI for July was released. Please rewind the subtitles a bit. The PMI was released, and it was not good. It came out at 46.8, showing a negative PMI. Normally, if it's a U.S. domestic issue, it can be buffered. However, yesterday's July FMC intensified the issue further. The market showed a sharp decline in the Dow Jones Index, which is sensitive to economic conditions. Yes, another thing is that there are many concerns about the Big Tech sector. Currently, it is being announced that growth indicators are more important than profit indicators. Despite investing a lot in terms of growth indicators, the situation is such that revenue is not coming out as expected. Therefore, AI, in fact, is excessive investment along with a bubble. Yes, recently, AI has been redefining history due to MBD. It is not defined by history after World War II; history lasts a long time.

Well, if you look at it, there was one in the 70s, one in the 80s, one in the 90s, and one in the 80s. So, suddenly, with this medical situation, it all centered around AI, and that's why the NASDAQ plummeted. This is how we should see it. And recently, if you look at it this way, symbolically, things keep collapsing. I will explain a little later. Yes, because the symbolism that has been maintained for a long time has collapsed, and with the psychological effect of the crisis overlapping, the stock prices have dropped quite a bit. That's how it turned out. I understand. You just talked about symbolism earlier. When the symbolism of things like government bond rates or Bitcoin collapses, isn't today one of those cases? How do you see it? Well, in fact, after the incident with President Biden, many people are now turning away from Trump.

There were a lot of talks about trade, adopting what kind of approach, Trump trade, Trump picking, and so on. In fact, looking at the current atmosphere in the United States, it seems to be shifting more towards Harris. I mentioned this situation. The most crucial point was the swing state issue during the Trump election. It was a problem in the 7-7 region of swing states, but now all of them have crossed over to Harris. Because of this, Trump, who was in the lead, is now reversing, and his original characteristics are coming out. Therefore, Trump's blunt remarks are becoming more frequent. Blunt remarks are coming out too harshly. Instead, isn't it becoming a disadvantage for Trump in the presidential election? Then, from the market's perspective, Trump...

Talks related to trade seem to inevitably have the symbolic significance of Trump Trade, so the prices are dropping. As viewers may know, the most symbolic aspect of Trump Trade is Bitcoin, right? Last week, when the news of President Biden's tax plan came out, Bitcoin was at $70,000. It even reached from $200,000 to $500,000 in some parts, up to $1 million. Due to trading regulations, it dropped to $62,000 in just five days. Today, it plummeted to $62,000 intraday. Even though it held at $65,000 yesterday, now it's uncertain at $64,000. It dropped to $62,000 intraday. So, Bitcoin is seeing a significant drop in prices, as you can see. Regarding the 10-year bond yield, as Hong mentioned earlier, it fell from the 4% level to 3.98%.

When I was doing the broadcast, I started at 1:30 in the morning, and I don't know how it is now. Oh, it's 3.97. It has dropped further, like this, the symbolism is crumbling. And I mentioned it yesterday, the Korean won against the Japanese yen. Today, PD Kim Chaehyun will show you. Oh, the Japanese yen collapsed to 150 yen, actually 140 points at the close. So, the symbolism that has been holding up has crumbled, causing a psychological effect, and the stock price has gone crazy. It has become an overlapping effect. It should be seen this way. I understand. So, the symbolism that was hit in various places has collapsed. In other words, interpreted differently, it means that there are large negatives scattered around. Right? After all, now that symbolism is crumbling, yes, because the stock price has been too euphoric, causing a distortion.

Yes, through this broadcast, around early July, we will discuss in detail later on. I mentioned earlier about the Big Data law called Bira and how the stock price will be affected in the future. At that time, I received a lot of criticism. Actually, looking at the stock prices plummeting like this, anyone would think that the stock prices have risen too much due to various conditions. This is a common perception. In such a situation, uncertainties in the policy stage, political uncertainties in the U.S., and the need to lay the groundwork must be considered. The FMC in July did not leave any certainty. In fact, when the psychological aspect turns like this, it quickly turns around. From that perspective, the triggering role is the economic problem of the two major economies in the world. Do you understand? Since last weekend...

In China, as well as in the United States, announcements have been continuously made in this way. You must be familiar with the content. The U.S. has achieved 50 for the third consecutive time. When it comes to monthly indexes, they use a 3-month moving average. In terms of accuracy, for the first time, it has dropped to 50, showing a rapid emergence of economic issues. From the perspective of PMI relevance, it is crucial how quickly it rises after falling. Over the past 21 months, it has shown a downward trend for 20 consecutive months. In the recent 3 months, it has been stagnant around 50, indicating neither economic recovery nor downturn but a situation where it has dropped to around 50. Now, let's look at China. The situation in China is even more challenging than in the United States. It is not appropriate to compare China and the United States just based on the 50 mark. China is at a higher stage of economic development compared to the United States. Therefore, when the U.S. reaches 50, indicating either economic recovery or downturn, in terms of comparative fairness, it should be assessed around 60.

So, in fact, right now, due to the world's manufacturing factories in China, the reason why this PMI index has dropped, what is it ultimately? Currently, in China, there is nothing good in terms of consumer-related retail sales index, corporate facility investment, real estate, or fixed assets. There is nothing good at all. When our LPR interest rate drops, many people expect effects like economic stimulus, stock market stimulus, but they are subtle. Yes, so in the current global economic debate, the weight of the two major countries in the world is crucial. In the case of the United States, the issue of economic downturn is probably emerging rapidly. In the case of the United States, in terms of economic downturn, it should be indicated as a slowdown, but since the term recession was used today, I will use economic downturn. When it comes to the degree of economic downturn, it is a debate whether it is a soft landing or a hard landing. This is the nature of the debate, and China is entering an economic downturn.

This is a qualitative issue in terms of the debate on the Japanization of the European market over the past 10 years. Yes, we have looked at government bond yields, Bitcoin, and economic indicators. Another symbolically significant aspect would be the big tech stocks, right? Big tech stocks have been fluctuating significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, Tesla led in the first half, followed by NVIDIA last year. Recently, big tech stocks have been fluctuating daily. Yesterday, they rose sharply, but today, I have to apologize for the drop in stock prices. They dropped significantly today, which is a warning.

It's a market, so the volatility is severe, right? From that perspective, today the VIX index is around 18. I will show you on the screen. It's around 18, calculated by the VIX index calculation method. When it reaches 18, according to the VIX calculation method, I calculated the volatility index of big tech companies. From that perspective, it is currently around 30, to be precise, 30.2. It's about twice the VIX. Quite significant. And now, let's look at the volatility of big tech compared to the VIX symbol. Nvidia went up about 10% yesterday, but today it dropped by about 6%. Looking at it this way, Nvidia has dropped by 14.8% in a month. When you look at the daily volatility, it goes up and down a lot, with a significant downward movement. Even $110 has dropped to $100. At one point, it was at $140 just the day before yesterday. From that perspective, regarding Nvidia,

The volatility is now at 40, which is three times higher than VIX. So, when the market becomes a wobbling market, what path will it take in the future will be shown in the subtitles. Let's look at two paths. Viewers, please make your judgment. When this wobbling market occurs, the bad case is dumping. When the stock price originally went up, people sell when it goes down, but can't even sell 10 times. When the bubble bursts, even if you want to sell, you can't. So, selling at 7 minutes is where it comes from. If it's sold from there, it's dumping. Then, the stock price will drop further. Therefore, it will lead to a crash or even a bigger crash. But there is another aspect. It doesn't necessarily mean it will go in a bad direction. For example, the volatility index, in this wobbling market, what about the bubble?

It's a beautiful adjustment that comes out like this. So when it's adjusted, it says to buy when it's adjusted. Then the stock price goes back up. Viewers, you might be thinking about this now. The second-quarter earnings are being announced today, like Apple. The profit figures are fine, but the most important thing is the growth indicators. But how much have companies invested in growth indicators like AI or tech? Even in the case of AI, they have invested over $50 billion overall, but the revenue is only around $3 million. So, have there been over-investments so far? What will happen to the stock prices? Has the bid price become a bubble? So, depending on the direction of the AI over-investment theory and the bubble theory, this will affect companies like Hynix, Samsung, and Samsung Electronics in Korea.

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the supercycle of booming semiconductors, and there are variables that could affect it. Personally, I am not an expert, so I will now look at the overseas perspectives. I am not an expert, but I will exclude my personal opinions. As the audience might be sensitive, I will objectively present the overseas situation. Okay, the earnings call is ongoing, and although it was expected to be good, the current response is lukewarm. Team C is making various statements, but there are no stimulating positive statements for investors. It is currently down 2% in trading after hours. You may want to take note of this. Big tech companies are announcing their earnings, but the current financial situation is not very good. Amazon is...

There was about a 6% drop, and Intel plummeted nearly 20% in trading hours later. It's not easy even now. Well, at the beginning of this month or was it last month? Through this time, there was a diagnosis that NVIDIA would indeed surpass Cisco Systems. So far, they seem to be following a very similar path, don't they? Back then, they received a lot of criticism. Let me briefly talk about what was broadcasted a month ago. NVIDIA is now leading the Fourth Industrial Revolution, but as you viewers may know, they were active in the Third Industrial Revolution. Yes, back in the 1990s before the collapse of the venture bubble, just like NVIDIA, they were very enthusiastic at that time. Recently, NVIDIA has surged by 700% in the past 2 years. Cisco Systems also rose back then, actually, before the bubble burst, 2 years before.

It almost reached a 600% increase, right? Nvidia reached the top, and Microsoft was in 2nd place at that time. When Nvidia was in 1st place, Microsoft was in 2nd place. But in reality, looking at the market situation at that time, just like Nvidia in early last month, many people were focusing on Cisco Systems. If you look at the index of Texas Mining yesterday, in fact, Cisco Systems has become the focus, so the target price has increased significantly. Last month, Nvidia's target price also increased significantly. So, from the current perspective, it is advisable to take some profits regarding Nvidia issues and not to focus too much on this path. Let's look positively towards the future. However, it has risen too much. It has risen too much. They are asking to realize some profits. Until now, the broadcast has been on this topic.

It's been about a month since it became so similar, so we are currently handling a lot of breaking news today. Due to this, the situation with Big D is not good, so it's different, that's why we are having a difficult time conveying the situation with Hongseo. I will talk about how this is related to this topic. Okay, then, it seems necessary to examine the contents according to the stock evaluation criteria. How are the evaluations of big tech stocks now? There are two evaluation criteria for big stocks. As viewers may be familiar with, there are PR and PBR indicators, the evaluation indicators from the past. This is not what I'm going to talk about. However, in the case of big tech stocks, new indicators such as future potential, which have recently received attention, are now being evaluated based on price and growth indicators.

Next, let's take a look at the revenue indicator, followed by the Price/Fate/Raise, and then this is now related to patented technology and Price/Dream/Ray dreams. Let's take a look at these indicators. People know what these numbers represent. This is a traditional method. By turning on the subtitles, it becomes a problem with new evaluation indicators. In the second quarter, the performance is not coming out well. The PSL indicator is weak. There was a lot of investment in AI, but if the revenue doesn't come out, what happens? What seemed optimistic so far will inevitably turn pessimistic. So, what happens is that excessive investment comes out. When the revenue is not supported, such investments result in excessive investment. Wouldn't the stock price also show signs of a bubble? Therefore, I would like to point out that the results of the third quarter are uncertain. Also, one more thing is that so far, the PSR indicator has been released to viewers.

Technology, when it flows into the future, even the same patent rights are evaluated with low potential value. Isn't that right for this technology? In patents, there are such aspects. And then, Price Detection Dream, it's even more so. Dreams like this will be evaluated poorly if the current situation is not good, and will be interpreted negatively. If the current situation is good, even a bad dream can be interpreted positively. This is the evaluation part of future potential value. Therefore, viewers, the big talks that were opened coolly yesterday are now being thoroughly examined today, and as time goes by, the Korean economic steps are rapidly conveying the worsening situation. I would like to tell you that the potential values are asymmetric, so that's why. Okay, and what you just mentioned, PDR.

In the middle, the word dream is a dream, but the word dream itself is actually a bit ambiguous. In Narrative Economics, it's the story of Robert Shiller's economics. As far as we can remember, it's George Soros' reflexivity hypothesis from a month ago. I mentioned that. Some viewers may know, but I think everyone knows. When the stock price rises in the future value of dreams, let's take a closer look. Let's move the subtitles to the back and show the next subtitles a bit. Today's broadcast started quite late, so I'll bring it out quickly. Ultimately, how we evaluate the future potential value is a problem of PPR and PDR indicators. In a networking society and psychogeography, when a specific event occurs, storytelling is created. Like, a lot of content is created on YouTube, for example. In the same situation, a new shoe.

Is it going to happen or not? Then what does it mean a lot to me? So, if it turns out like this, in terms of this fan chart, the good side should stay around 30, should not deviate from the difference. A lot of words, a lot. Until the interest rate cut in September went straight up until just before it was confirmed. When experts confirm it, how will viewers feel? If you think the interest rate will be cut in September, right? So, if the stock prices drop like this today, you will be very disappointed. However, if you look at the original text, there is no talk of an interest rate cut in September. It says that only the agenda will be presented. That's for sure. But what experts are saying is, as if the interest rate cut in September is a confirmed fact. This is like storytelling, saying that the interest rate was cut in September. Let's look at it from a negative perspective.

On the negative side, even though this is in red, when experts talk about it quickly, it becomes thick on the negative side, like a new arm. Oh, this is actually the appearance of future potential value. From that perspective, um, on the falling floor, which was cool yesterday, as time goes by in July, in fact, as the original content of the FMC issue is revealed, more experienced people start to see this issue as an objective fact. So, in July, nothing is clear. So, regarding these unfortunate events, along with storytelling, as the stock price falls, it opened coolly yesterday. This kind of appearance of falling coolly is unfolding, and that is the current appearance of the stock price. I will tell you this. Um, as I listened, it seems that the narrative economics conveys a better meaning. The most important thing is actually now.

NVIDIA's performance will be the main concern, right? The first quarter results are usually announced a bit late, so compared to other big tech companies, it will be after the end of this month and announced next month. Therefore, expectations are rising until June, July, and August. It seems like the announcement will be a bit delayed. I understand that this time, the second-quarter results are scheduled for August 28th. Let's look at the first-quarter performance. The law of 10 should be applied, Hwanghae's law should be applied. However, there were many interpretations of the first quarter's results, which were considered somewhat lacking. You may remember the evaluation that was a bit unsatisfactory. So, let me talk about the situation where the first-quarter results were announced in May, which was considered unsatisfactory. First of all, revenue growth...

It was very threatening. It exceeded 15 to 20 billion dollars compared to the expected era, which was threatening. The second point is that the EPS profit indicator should exceed the expected value by 15%, but the Gen-Z rule or the rule of ten should be applied. In fact, this assessment was made. In fact, in that respect, if the result is that the MB stock price went from $140 to $110, it collapsed, showing a threatening appearance of $100 to intraday investors. In the second quarter, the second quarter results to be announced on August 28 are expected to be much better than the unsatisfactory first quarter in terms of revenue or significantly better than expected. Next, in terms of profit indicators, if the EPS exceeds the expected value by more than 15%, addressing some of the unsatisfactory parts related to the Gen-Z rule or the rule of ten, NVIDIA is gaining significance in the big market.

Because of this, the appearance of big tech and digital sector stocks, including NVIDIA, will not be affected. Yes, that's what I see. However, NVIDIA seems to have a slightly different character. They have been focusing intensively on this recently. Even though the stock prices of these big tech sectors are talking about the same situation, due to the current frozen investment sentiment, if such a situation had occurred in March or April, it would have been interpreted positively in the market. But, for example, even if Apple rises to a high level, ultimately, its stock price does not fall, right? I would like to point out that this is the current appearance of digital sector stocks. In such a situation, always maintaining a balanced appearance, the aesthetics of balance, and profit-taking perspective are emphasized. This could probably serve as a significant guideline for viewers when making investments.

Let me explain it again. Yes, I understand. So far, we have had a discussion with Han Sang-chun, a lawmaker from a Korean economic newspaper. Thank you very much. Yes, thank you.

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美·中 PMI 충격!…급부상하는 경기침체 논쟁ㅣAI 거품과 과잉투자론, 제3 빙하기 오나?ㅣ한상춘의 지금세계는ㅣ한국경제TV

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