일본의 반도체 산업: 쇠퇴와 경제적 도전

### 일본의 반도체 위기와 경제적 도전: 장기적인 하락세
* 📉 일본 경제산업성은 한국의 산업통상자원부와 유사하게 산업기술과 에너지 절약을 총괄하는 부처로, **한국의 반도체 산업에 영향을 미치는 수출 규제**를 시행하고 있습니다.
* 📊 6월에 발표된 충격적인 보고서에 따르면 일본의 반도체 시장 점유율이 **1988년 50.3%에서 2019년에는 10%로 급락**했는데, 이는 주로 미국의 관세와 제재로 인한 것입니다.
* 📉 1992년에는 상위 12개 반도체 기업 중 6개가 일본 기업이었지만, 2019년에는 **삼성과 SK하이닉스 같은 한국의 거대 기업들 사이에서 르네사스만이 중요한 위치**를 차지하고 있는 가운데 일본 산업은 **9위로 떨어졌습니다.**
* 🔮 전기차와 디지털화의 발전으로 인한 글로벌 수요 증가에도 불구하고 **2030년까지 일본의 반도체 시장 점유율은 더욱 하락**할 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🏭 일본 정부는 글로벌 산업 생태계 변화에 따라 반도체 공급 확보가 시급하다는 점을 강조하며 **4조 7,600억 원을 투자해 TSMC의 반도체 공장을 구마모토에 유치**하고 있습니다.
* 📉 한때 일본을 대표하는 DRAM 회사였던 엘피다는 **삼성과 하이닉스와의 경쟁에 실패**한 후 **2012년 법정 보호를 신청**했고, 이는 일본 반도체 업계에 큰 손실로 남았습니다.
* 💰 일본의 가계 금융 자산은 **200조 엔을 넘어섰지만 54%가 현금과 예금**에 머물러 있으며, 이는 장기적인 경기 침체와 임금 정체로 인해 투자를 꺼리는 문화가 반영된 결과입니다.
* 📉 일본의 평균 소득 증가율이 수십 년 동안 정체되어 있어 많은 국민들이 지속적인 경제 문제 속에서 정부의 약속을 경계하고 있는 상황에서 **기시다 총리의 가계 자산 소득 2배 증가 목표**는 회의적인 시각으로 바라보고 있습니다.

일본의 반도체 산업은 심각한 침체에 직면해 있어 외국인 투자를 유치하기 위한 정부의 조치가 시급한 상황입니다.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is responsible for Japan's industrial technology policy and energy conservation. It plays a role similar to that of South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. This ministry is also the one that implemented export regulations on key materials for semiconductors and displays to South Korea. The report released by this ministry in June of last year shocked the Japanese archipelago. Additionally, in line with the series titled Japan is Shaken by the Korea Economic Daily, analyses of the Japanese economy, which is no longer as robust as it once was, have been published. In the corner titled Response to the 17, they examined Japan's economic policies, which have been failing for 30 years. A representative example of this is semiconductors. The report that stunned Japan is an 83-page document on semiconductor strategy, and what astonished them was a single graph on page eight. As you can see, in 1988, the global market...

Japan's semiconductor market share, which accounted for 50.3%, dropped to 10% by 2019. This decline was influenced by the United States imposing anti-dumping tariffs and various trade sanctions, threatening Japan's semiconductor industry. Looking at the semiconductor company rankings in 1992, the top positions included NC in first place and Toshiba, Oki, and Hitachi among the top six, with six out of twelve being Japanese companies. In 2019, while South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ranked second and third globally, Japan's semiconductor industry managed only to secure the ninth position, with only one company, Renesas, remaining relevant. This paints a picture of Japan's current situation, and the shock for the Japanese people came from the outlook following 2019. As you can see, the projection for Japan's semiconductor market share by 2030 indicated a further decline. This is not a conspiracy theory; it is an estimate from the department responsible for industrial technology policy in the Japanese government. With advancements in electric vehicles and digitalization, the demand for semiconductors is expected to grow.

The semiconductor shortage has been continuing for two years, and it's evident that even industries seemingly unrelated to semiconductors, such as automobiles and air conditioning sensors, are being affected. The U.S.-China trade dispute and the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have contributed to a global economy where the U.S. and Europe are vying for dominance among major powers, while countries like India and Brazil are forming a neutral bloc. Semiconductors are emerging as strategic materials directly linked to national security. Japan, which has manufacturing industries like automobiles and electronics as its mainstay, is hastily securing semiconductor supplies. This urgency arises because the globalized industrial ecosystem, which relied on exporting semiconductor materials and equipment while importing finished products, is collapsing. This is the reason why the Japanese government has decided to attract TSMC's semiconductor factory in Kumamoto Prefecture, committing to support half of the investment cost, amounting to 4.76 trillion won.

In 1992, I mentioned that six out of the world's top ten semiconductor companies were Japanese. Where have these companies gone now? Why did the Japanese government spend 5 trillion yen to attract foreign semiconductor companies? From Japan's perspective, this is undoubtedly a painful situation. Let's take a look at the developments over the past ten years. On February 27, 2011, the world’s leading DRAM semiconductor company, Elpida, filed for court protection in the Tokyo District Court. Elpida was formed by merging the semiconductor divisions of two companies, NEC and Oki Electric, and was considered Japan's version of the semiconductor Avengers. At one point, Elpida achieved a 20% market share, ranking as the second largest in the world. However, in the 2000s, it lost the competitive chicken game against Samsung Electronics and Hynix, leading to a downward trajectory. In 2012, it filed for court protection.

Elpida, after merging with the American company Micron Technology, has left no Japanese DRAM specialists in Korea. Even with the last deal remaining in Japan, Elpida faced a loss of over 200 billion yen for two consecutive years, from 2008 to 2010. In an attempt to save the company, the Japanese government and creditors provided 110 billion yen in 2009. However, as the maturity date approached at the end of 2011, they refused to extend the loan, indicating they wanted to recover their debts. By the end of 2011, Elpida's debt had increased to 2.9 trillion yen, which was 1.3 times its equity, leading to the conclusion that there was no possibility of recovery. Starting from the end of 2010, DRAM prices plummeted, and the value of the yen skyrocketed, resulting in Elpida posting losses for five consecutive quarters. Additionally, they were completely outmatched by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the competitive market.

The decision of the Japanese government to halt support does not seem incorrect. After all, one cannot keep pouring water into a bottomless bucket. However, do you know what happened in 2012, the year Elpida applied for court protection? It was the year the smartphone era began. The demand for DRAM skyrocketed, and Samsung Electronics and Hynix experienced remarkable growth. Smartphones consume a significant amount of this technology. If the Japanese government had hoped for just one more year of good prospects, the landscape of the global semiconductor market would have completely changed. Even now, the victims of the Korean War are lamenting the situation. Wakahashi, a researcher at Tokyo Institute of Technology, recalls the trade friction between the U.S. and Japan, which caused the Japanese government to continue its policy support. He mentioned that they failed to adequately grasp the trends in DRAM products, leading to insufficient financial support.

지적을 했습니다. 자국 산업에 대한 보조금 때문에 1980년대 미국에서 미 본사를 해머로 뚫어 부시고 했던 장면을 기억하시나요? 그때 1980년대 밀 무역 마찰이 일어났고, 일본이 여러 보조금을 끊어서 마지막 남은 D램 업체를 고사시키는 상황이었습니다. 10년 전, 1조 원을 아끼려고 자국 반도체 회사를 죽인 일본 정부가 이제 와서 남의 나라 반도체 공장을 일본으로 유치해달라며 4조 5000억 원을 쏟아붓는 아이러니한 상황이 벌어졌습니다. 일본 정부는 최첨단 반도체 공장을 일본에 유치했다고 홍보하고 있습니다. 그런데 TSMC 구마모토 공장에서는 22에서 28 나노미터 반도체를 주로 생산합니다. TSMC가 미국에 건설한 공장에서는 정말 최첨단 제품인 3 나노미터 반도체를 생산할 전망입니다. 미옥의 제시문의 스타 칼럼니스트인 나카야마 나츠 씨는

This 10-nanometer technology is a decade-old technology, and there are criticisms that it won't improve Japan's semiconductor market share in products from TSMC. From Japan's perspective, another issue is that Elpida's competitor, Hynix, managed to survive thanks to continuous support from the South Korean government and creditors, even during the long DMC King game. In 2004, Elpida had a similar scale to SK Hynix, whose market capitalization has now increased 17 times. In South Korea, the government recently made a complete revision of the nuclear phase-out policy that had been pushed for the past five years, revealing various issues. Even though there have been attempts to revive the semiconductor industry after a decade of setbacks, it is not an easy task. The problem lies in the mindset of the ecosystem's main players. Most importantly, the significant reduction of skilled personnel to two-thirds of the previous level is seen as a serious challenge. Even if we shout for semiconductor revival...

Ultimately, there must be people involved. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the manufacturing of electronic circuits for electronic component devices, which refers to the semiconductor industry, has seen a decline in the number of workers aged 25 to 34 from 380,000 in 2010 to 240,000 last year. The Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association projected that in the next few years, there will be a shortage of veteran engineers who are knowledgeable about the establishment and operation of semiconductor factories. The Japanese government has also acknowledged its previous failures. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pointed out that while countries like South Korea, China, and Taiwan have actively nurtured their companies, Japan has reduced support for its own businesses, which he views as a cause of the semiconductor industry's decline. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has admitted multiple times in the National Assembly that it has not implemented appropriate and sufficient policies, failing to keep pace with global semiconductor industry trends. Will the Japanese government change its approach moving forward?

This is the reason why Japanese experts are worried about the future of their country. There was a significant event on the 5th, during which Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan, visited the UK. In a speech held at London's financial district, he declared that he would double household asset income by encouraging families to save their financial assets and invest them. His plan is to increase tax benefits for individual investors, aiming to guide the cash and deposits currently held by households into the stock market.

Last year, Japan's household financial assets surpassed 200 trillion yen, which is approximately 2 quadrillion won in our currency. However, Japanese people hold 54% of their financial assets, or about 120 trillion yen, in cash and deposits. The proportion of stocks is only 10%. This stands in stark contrast to Americans, who hold most of their financial assets in stocks, with cash comprising just 10%. The asset income that the Prime Minister mentioned is...

The income I earn does not come from my salary; it comes from interest on savings, dividends from stocks, and rental income from real estate. However, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's Basic Survey on National Life, the average income of the top three wealthiest families in Japan was only about 154,000 yen in 2018. As I just explained, most Japanese people have their savings in deposits, and the interest rates on these deposits are very low. Since 2016, Japan has implemented a negative interest rate policy. This is why Prime Minister Kishida's goal of doubling asset income is considered to be almost meaningless. The average income was reduced to 32 square meters. While the essence of the statement is to change one’s investment approach to be more aggressive, this is not a new idea; it dates back to 2003, over 20 years ago, when the Financial Services Agency promoted the slogan From Savings to Investment in Japan.

The government has been repeating the same announcement for 20 years. Some say that the Prime Minister will increase charitable income from three financial centers to 32, which is a ridiculous declaration because it was originally not charitable income but rather an increase from two. Last September, when the Prime Minister ran in the election for the sister city council, he promised not charitable income but to double Japan's total income, which has been stagnant for thirty years. In that election, he campaigned on the promise of doubling income in the Reiwa era and won, subsequently taking office as Japan's Prime Minister in October. As can be inferred from the term Reiwa, the original pledge to double Japan's income comes from a different source. The politician the Prime Minister respects is Ikeda Hayato, the founder of the Kōchikai, who was the first to propose the goal of doubling income.

Ikeda initially set a goal to double Japan's gross national product, which was ranked 13th at the time, to 26 trillion yen in just ten years. Contrary to expectations, Japan's income doubled in only four years. This remarkable growth of 9.1% annually in the Japanese economy from 1956 was due to the high economic growth period. However, unlike Prime Minister Ikeda's vision, Japan has been suffering from a long-term recession for 30 years since the bubble economy burst in 1989. Japan's potential growth rate has been nearly 0% for almost a decade. From 1989 to 2020, Japan's average nominal economic growth was only 0.9%. If the economic growth rate from the past 30 years continues, it would take 77 years for Japan's GDP, which was 539 trillion yen at the end of 2020, to double. Even within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, this goal is considered unrealistic.

The reason for the pessimism surrounding the goals is clear. After taking office, Prime Minister Kishida did not mention the goal of doubling income even once during the important National Assembly election campaign held at the end of October. Following the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, Prime Minister Kishida announced a new goal six months later: instead of the current income of $41,113, he aims to provide a charity income of 15.8 trillion yen. The government's policies seem inconsistent and fail to instill confidence, leading to criticism that they are damaging Japan's economy. In January 2015, then Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso bluntly criticized companies, likening them to hoarders. He pointed out that companies are making huge profits but are stingy with wage increases and capital investments, which has drawn criticism regarding their internal reserves and the negative impact on Japanese politics.

The situation has not changed even after several years. Junichi Shimizu pointed out during last October's press conference that the company's internal reserves are at an unprecedented level. Internal reserves refer to the funds that a company accumulates from the profits it earns each year. The backdrop of the political sphere in Japan casting a critical eye on private companies is rooted in resentment. The Japanese government, through Abenomics, has lowered corporate taxes over the past decade, which has devalued the yen. There was an expectation that if companies increased their profits, it would naturally lead to wage increases and stimulate consumer spending. However, instead of increasing employment and wages, companies have increased their internal reserves to 90 trillion yen, marking a 1.6 trillion yen increase. In 2020, the internal reserves of Japanese companies reached 484 trillion yen, approximately 4.66 trillion dollars, recording the highest level for nine consecutive years. The political sphere is focused on the money...

The reason for the criticism that they only fill their own pockets after making things worse is understandable. However, there must be a reason why Japanese companies are increasing their reserves despite facing criticism. It's because there is a deep-rooted awareness that they must prepare for many uncertain situations. Companies that survived the long-term stagnation due to the collapse of the bubble economy 30 years ago have also faced challenges after that, such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic. In a situation where the management environment is hard to predict due to U.S.-China hegemonic competition and the war in Ukraine, businesses are also struggling with post-COVID conditions. Companies feel compelled to secure as much funding as possible in the face of an uncertain future. Above all, as I mentioned earlier, the Japanese government's economic policies have been inconsistent.

Not opening their wallets is not just a characteristic of businesses. In 2021, Japanese households saved 34.2% of their annual income, which is 10 percentage points higher than during the global financial crisis in 2008. Unlike in the United States and Europe, where there has been a rebound in consumption, such behavior has not occurred in Japan. This is precisely why last year, the financial assets of Japanese households first surpassed 2000 trillion yen. It has been 30 years since it broke the 1000 trillion yen mark in 1992. The sigh of relief from Japan is because the increase in household assets does not necessarily mean that Japan's economy has improved. For the Japanese economy to regain vitality, money needs to flow into the stock market and other growth areas. As I mentioned, the savings of Japanese households might still be resting quietly in banks. This is why the Japanese government has been striving for a decade to shift personal financial assets from savings to investments. However, for several decades...

For years, it has meant that efforts have had no effect. The middle-aged and older generations in Japan, who experienced the collapse of the bubble and the global financial crisis, still carry trauma related to investments. After enduring a 30-year recession, the Japanese have not expressed significant dissatisfaction because they firmly believed that, although they could not live abundantly during their working years, the country was one where they could rely solely on their pensions for retirement. In fact, Japan promised this. However, in June 2019, a report revealed that the retirement funds of couples aged 65 and older in Japan would be short by about 20 million yen, shaking this belief. While the future looks uncertain, wages have remained stagnant for thirty years, as I have explained several times. If you are managing a company, should you trust the words of the Japanese government regarding your employees?

Would you like to increase salaries and distribute investment in facilities? If you are an average Japanese person, would you prefer to keep your savings in a Japanese bank, or would you try to increase your reserves and save even a little more? So far, I have seen Tokyo and its surroundings. Thank you.

1조 아끼려 세계 2위 기업 죽이더니 5조들여 TSMC 모시는 日 정부 / 정영효의 도쿄나우

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

한경 글로벌마켓

어려움을 겪고 있는 일본의 반도체 산업

일본 경제산업성은 일본의 산업 기술 정책과 에너지 절약을 담당하고 있으며, 반도체 핵심 소재에 대한 한국 수출 규제를 시행하고 있습니다.

일본의 반도체 시장 점유율은 1988년 50.

3%에서 2019년 10%로 급격히 하락했으며, 일본 최고의 반도체 기업들은 글로벌 지배력을 잃었습니다.

일본 정부는 현재 반도체 공급을 확보하기 위해 긴급히 노력하고 있으며, 업계의 하락세를 반전시키기 위해 구마모토현에 위치한 TSMC의 공장 투자를 지원하기로 약속했습니다.

엘피다의 도전과 변화하는 반도체 환경

엘피다는 마이크론 테크놀로지와 합병한 후 한국에 일본 DRAM 전문 업체가 없어졌고, 2011년 말에는 2조 9천억 엔의 부채를 지는 등 상당한 손실에 직면했습니다.

일본 정부가 엘피다에 대한 지원을 중단하기로 결정한 시기는 2012년 스마트폰 시대로 인해 DRAM 수요가 급증한 시기와 맞물렸습니다.

아이러니하게도 반도체 산업에 대한 보조금을 삭감했던 일본 정부는 현재 일본에 반도체 공장을 유치하기 위해 막대한 투자를 하고 있습니다.

반도체 산업에서 일본이 겪고 있는 어려움

일본의 10나노미터 기술은 반도체 시장 점유율을 높이지 못한다는 비판을 받고 있는 반면, 엘피다의 경쟁사인 하이닉스는 정부의 지원을 받아 번창하고 있습니다.

일본의 반도체 인력은 크게 감소하여 베테랑 엔지니어가 부족할 것으로 예상됩니다.

기시다 후미오 총리는 최근 영국에서 한 연설에서 금융 자산을 현금에서 주식 시장으로 옮기기 위해 가계 자산 소득을 두 배로 늘리고 개인 투자자에 대한 세제 혜택을 늘리겠다는 계획을 발표했습니다.

일본의 정체된 소득과 비현실적인 성장 목표

저자의 수입은 이자, 배당금, 임대 부동산에서 나오는 반면, 일본의 상위 3대 부유층의 2018년 평균 소득은 15만 4,000엔에 불과했습니다.

2016년 이후 일본의 저금리와 마이너스 금리 정책으로 인해 기시다 총리의 자산 소득 2배 증가 목표는 무의미해 보였습니다.

2003년 이후 일본 정부의 공격적인 투자 촉진 노력에도 불구하고 일본은 1989년부터 2020년까지 잠재성장률이 0%에 가까워지고 명목 경제성장률이 평균 0.

9%에 불과한 장기 불황을 30년 동안 경험하고 있습니다.

일본의 경제 목표를 둘러싼 비관론

기시다 총리의 일관성 없는 정책과 소득 2배 증가 목표의 지연으로 인해 그 효과에 대한 비판과 회의론이 제기되고 있습니다.

일본 기업들은 경제 불확실성과 위기의 역사에 대응하기 위해 막대한 이익을 내고 있음에도 불구하고 내부 유보금을 90조 엔으로 늘려왔습니다.

법인세를 낮추고 임금 인상을 촉진하려는 정부의 노력도 기대만큼의 성과를 거두지 못하면서 민간 기업에 대한 비판을 더욱 부추기고 있습니다.

일본 가구의 지출 꺼려하는 성향

일본 가계는 2021년 연간 소득의 34.

2%를 저축해 2008년 금융위기 때보다 훨씬 높은 수치를 기록했습니다.

금융 자산의 증가에도 불구하고 일본 경제는 개선의 기미를 보이지 않고 있으며, 여전히 은행에 돈이 머물러 있습니다.

중장년층과 노년층은 과거 경제 위기로 인한 트라우마가 남아 있어 개인 금융 자산을 저축에서 투자로 전환하려는 정부의 노력은 거의 효과를 거두지 못하고 있습니다.