이스라엘-이란 분쟁: 에스컬레이션과 시장 반응

이란의 미사일 공격 이후 이스라엘이 보복을 다짐하면서 지역 긴장이 위험하게 고조되고 있습니다.

### 긴장의 고조: 이란의 이스라엘에 대한 미사일 공격과 시장 반응
* 🚀 베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리는 미국의 공격 임박 경고 직후 **이란이 이스라엘을 향해 200발의 탄도 미사일**을 발사한 데 대해 보복을 다짐했습니다.
* 💥 이스라엘군은 이 미사일 중 상당수가 요격되어 **서안지구에서 제한적인 피해와 1명의 사망자**가 발생했다고 보고했습니다.
* 📅 이번 사건은 **올해 이란의 두 번째 직접 공격**으로, 지난 4월 **300대의 드론을 요격**해 상징적인 대응으로 여겨졌던 이전 공격과는 다른 양상을 띠고 있습니다.
* 🔍 현재의 보복은 특히 최근 **하마스 지도자를 포함한 이란 저항 세력의 핵심 인물이 살해**된 데 대한 대응으로 더욱 확대된 것으로 보입니다.
* ⚖ 분석가들은 이란의 행동이 중요하지만 여전히 군사적 목표에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, **양국이 직접적인 대결을 피하려는 공동의 이해관계**가 있기 때문에 더 큰 충돌로 이어지지는 않을 수 있다고 말합니다.
* 📉 지정학적 긴장에도 불구하고 지속적인 공급 우려와 지정학적 위험으로 인해 **금값은 상승**하고 **석유는 박스권 내에서 거래**되는 등 시장의 반응은 차분했습니다.
* 📊 유럽에서는 **프랑스가 재정적자 목표를 연기**하고 **독일이 구조적 성장 문제**에 직면하는 등 경제적 어려움이 지속되고 있어 투자 심리와 시장 역동성에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.
* 💬 전반적으로 상황은 여전히 유동적이며, **미국의 개입과 다가오는 선거**가 이란과 이스라엘의 전략적 계산에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 잠재적 영향이 남아 있습니다.

### 지정학적 긴장에 따른 석유 시장의 반응과 글로벌 경제 회복력
* 🛢 최근 이란의 공격 이후 **유가가 5% 급등**하면서 트레이더들이 중동 분쟁 고조와 관련된 리스크를 재조정하고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.
* ⚖ 유가 상승에도 불구하고 전반적인 석유 시장은 **사우디아라비아와 아랍에미리트연합을 중심으로 한 OPEC의 여유 생산 능력**으로 인해 잠재적 혼란을 완화할 수 있어 안정세를 유지하고 있습니다.
* 🔍 분석가들은 이스라엘의 대응이 명확해질 때까지 시장 긴장이 지속될 수 있지만, **물리적 혼란 없이는 유가가 크게 지속해서 상승할 가능성은 낮다**고 말합니다.
* 🌍 세계 경제는 지정학적 충격에도 불구하고 **코로나19 기간 동안의 재정 부양책과 서비스 부문의 회복**에 따른 성장 기대감 향상으로 회복세를 보이고 있습니다.
* 📈 유가는 소비자 지출에 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, **최대 산유국인 미국 경제는 유가 상승으로 기업 투자를 촉진하는 혜택**을 누릴 수 있습니다.
* 💡 지정학적 이슈, 특히 석유 시장의 지정학적 이슈는 여전히 변동성의 핵심 동인이지만, **물리적 혼란이 발생하지 않는 한 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향은 과장된 경우**가 많습니다.
* 🌱 순배출 제로 목표와 관련하여 중국은 **청정 에너지 용량을 크게 늘리며** 전 세계 배출 환경의 지속적인 도전에도 불구하고 지속가능성을 위한 노력을 보여줬습니다.
* 🏗 카나리아 워프 그룹은 생명과학 기업을 유치하기 위해 적극적으로 서비스를 혁신하고 있으며, 잠재적 임차인에게 어필하는 데 있어 **연결성과 편의시설의 중요성**을 강조하고 있습니다.

FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE PULSE. I'M FRANCINE LAQUA IN LONDON. ISRAEL'S PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU HAS VOWED TO RETALIATE AFTER IRAN FIRED 200 BALLISTIC MISSILES AT THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT. IT STARTED ONLY HOURS AFTER THE U.S. WARNED AN ATTACK WAS IMMINENT. THE ISRAELI ARMY SAID MANY MISSILES HAD BEEN INTERCEPTED WITH REPORTS ONE PERSON WAS KILLED IN THE WEST BANK. FOR MORE ON ALL OF THIS, LET'S GET STRAIGHT TO JOUMANNA BERCETCHE WHO'S IN THE MIDDLE EAST. HOW DOES THIS IRAN ATTACK ACTUALLY DIFFER FROM THE ONE WE SAW IN APRIL? JOUMANNA: IT'S A VALID POINT TO RAISE BECAUSE IT'S THE SECOND INCIDENT OF A DIRECT ATTACK ON

ISRAEL BY IRAN, THE FIRST ONE HAPPENING IN APRIL OF THIS YEAR AND BACK THEN IT WAS IN REPRISAL TO THE AIRSTRIKES ON THE IRANIAN CONSULATE IN SYRIA. IRAN HAD THREATENED TO RETALIATE. THE RETALIATION DID COME IN APRIL, 300 DRONES WERE SENT. ALL INTERCEPTED, AND THE INTERPRETATION AT THE TIME WAS AT THE TIME WAS THAT THE REACTION FROM IRAN WAS MOSTLY SYMBOLIC. YOU FAST FORWARD TO TODAY AND THERE ARE A PART -- THE REPRISAL COMES ON THE BACK OF THE KILLING OF SOME VERY IMPORTANT FIGUREHEADS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF RESISTANCE. THEY ARE RESPONDING TO THE KILLING OF -- WHO WAS THE HAMAS LEADER KILLED IN THE KILLING OF THE AIRSTRIKE LAST WEEK.

ALONGSIDE OF A COMMANDER, ALSO KILLED IN THE AIR STRIKE, IRAN HAD TO BE SEEN TO BE DOING SOMETHING. THE REPRISAL DID COME IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THEY SENT UP TO 200 BALLISTIC MISSILES. THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCES SAID THEY INTERCEPTED PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THESE ROCKETS THAT WERE FIRED. THERE WAS LIMITED DAMAGE. THERE WAS REPORTEDLY ONE PERSON WHOSE GUILT. BUT THE KEY DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND IS THAT IT WAS LESS TELEGRAPHED, SO THERE WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS HEADS UP. THE TYPES OF MISSILES, BALLISTIC MISSILES, WERE PRECISION MISSILES, CONCENTRATED AROUND MILITARY TARGETS THAT WERE USED TO LAUNCH THE AIRSTRIKE, USED TO BEING FASTER MOVING. SO IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN

ESCALATION IN TERMS OF HOW IRAN CHOSE TO RESPOND TO THIS FORM OF REPRISAL. FRANCINE: JOUMANNA BERCETCHE IN DUBAI. LET'S TALK TO TINA, FOUNDER OF GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST AND ADVISOR A GLOBAL FORUM FOR SITE. WE WILL GET REACTION WITH LAURA COOPER. TINA, THIS FEELS LIKE AN ESCALATION. IT'S A STRATEGIC ERA ON THE PART OF IRAN BECAUSE THEY TRIED TO DO AS MUCH MITE AS THEY COULD BUT IT DIDN'T REALLY GO ANYWHERE, WOULD YOU AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT? >> I JUST LOOKED AT MARK'S PIECE AND IT WAS EXPECTED THAT IRAN WOULD HAVE TO RETALIATE. ISRAEL KEEPS UPPING THE ANTE AND KEEPS EXPOSING IRAN'S VULNERABILITIES, BUT THE WAY

THAT WE NEED TO INTERPRET THE RESPONSES THAT IT WAS SIGNIFICANT BUT FOCUSED ON MILITARY TARGETS, AND IT FALLS SHORT OF THE THRESHOLD OF TRIGGERING A WIDER WAR. IN THAT SENSE, IT PROBABLY TAKES THE BOXES THAT TEHRAN NEEDED TO, BUT THEY ARE ON THE BACK FOOT. FRANCINE: LOOKING AT THIS, DOES IRAN WANT A REAL WAR OR WAS IT A WARNING? >> IRAN HAS A DIFFERENT STRATEGIC CALCULUS THAN ISRAEL. THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN UNDERSCORING IN MY RESEARCH. FOR ISRAEL, THEY HAVE PERCEIVED A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO DEGRADE THE ENEMY, THEIR ADVERSARIES, HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH. IRAN'S PROXIES BETWEEN NOW AND U.S. ELECTIONS IN FIVE WEEKS' TIME.

IT IS NOT A REMARKABLE INSIGHT TO EXPECT THAT NETANYAHU WOULD PREFER A RETURN TRUMP TO THE WHITE HOUSE, WHEREAS FOR IRAN, THEIR GEOSTRATEGIC CALCULUS IS DIFFERENT. THEY NEED TO WAIT IT OUT. IT'S NOT A SECRET THAT THEY WOULD PREFER A HARRIS WHITE HOUSE, MAINLY BECAUSE, AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR YOUR VIEWERS, BECAUSE THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A RETURN OF THE P5 CONSTRUCT, THE DIPLOMATIC CONSTRUCT. IRAN NEEDS TO HOLD THE LINE, NOT ALLOW ITSELF TO BE HUMILIATED. AND BY ITS TIME. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, WITH THIS MISSILE PING-PONG TAKING PLACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN'S PROXIES, ISN'T LIKELY TO DIE DOWN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SAUDI'S

HAVE INCREASED THEIR PRODUCTION TARGETS. SO, OIL SUPPLIES ARE HIGHER, THAT'S IMPORTANT. FRANCINE: I KNOW IT'S EARLY REPORTS BUT A LOT OF THE MISSILES IRAN FIRED WERE SHOT DOWN. SOME BROKE THROUGH ISRAEL'S AIR DEFENSE THIS TIME. WHAT DOES ISRAEL WANT? THEY TALK ABOUT RETALIATION. ARE THEY GOING TO GO HARD? >> I THINK ISRAEL'S RESPONSE WILL SIMILARLY TRY TO STRIKE THE BALANCE BETWEEN NOT ALLOWING A SERIOUS ATTACK FROM TEHRAN GO UNCHECKED. BUT WITHOUT GOING FURTHER. IRAN AND ISRAEL DO NOT WANT TO BE IN DIRECT CONFLICT. IN THAT SENSE, THEY HAVE SHARED OBJECTIVES. BUT IT IS ABSOLUTELY IN ISRAEL'S INTEREST AS IT SEES IT TO DO MORE, TO DIMINISH THE CAPACITY OF HEZBOLLAH AND

HAMAS, AND TAKING OUT THE LEADERSHIP, THE DECAPITATION STRIKE, AS IT IS KNOWN, IS DRAMATIC AND CAUSES TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CAPACITY, BUT IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL THIS RISK. AND WE ARE HEADING TO THAT OCTOBER 7 ANNIVERSARY, WHICH WILL BE A VERY SOMBER AND PROBABLY QUITE ANGRY ANNIVERSARY FOR ISRAEL AND NETANYAHU VERY MUCH EXPOSED FOR WHAT HE HAS DONE IN THE PAST YEAR. FRANCINE: IF IN ISRAELI MISSILE STRIKE STRIKES BACK AT IRAN, IF WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES IN LEBANON AND IRAN FIGHTS BACK, ARE WE GOING TO SEE A DISASTROUS WAR WITH POTENTIALLY THE U.S. DRAWN IN? WHO IS GOING TO TRY TO MEDIATE

THIS AND BRING THIS DOWN? >> WHO'S GOING TO MEDIATE IT? THERE'S NOBODY WITH THE CAPACITY TO DO THAT RIGHT NOW. IT AND BY AND SAYING CONSISTENTLY THAT WE WILL BACK ISRAEL ALMOST NO MATTER WHAT, I THINK UNDERMINES THE U.S. MORAL AUTHORITY ON THAT FRONT. BUT I PUT IT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY. AS LONG AS THESE VOLLEYS OF MISSILES, SERIOUS AND TERRIFYING AS THEY ARE, CONTINUE AT THIS PACE, GOING BACK TO WHAT JOUMANNA SAID, I OR WON'T RESPOND. THEY ARE AIMED AT MILITARY TARGETS, THEY HAVEN'T BEEN VERY EFFECTIVE. I THINK SYMBOLIC IS A POOR CHOICE OF WORDS BUT THAT'S WHAT I HEAR FROM MARKET PARTICIPANTS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR IT WILL BE IF ISRAEL TARGETS IRAN'S

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES. THAT'S A REAL RISK. THERE'S FOOTAGE COMING OUT OF IRAN WITH PEOPLE FILLING UP THEIR PETROL TANKS. DO THEY KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW OR ARE THEY BEING RATIONAL ACTORS IN A VOLATILE PART OF THE WORLD? FRANCINE: TINA, FOUNDER AND GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST AT GLOBAL FORUM FOR SITES. WE WILL NOW SPEAK WITH LAURA COOPER, GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST. ALWAYS GREAT TO SPEAK TO YOU. IT FEELS LIKE A BIG MARKET DAY BUT MARKETS AREN'T REALLY REACTING, OR IS REACTING ODDLY. WE ARE SEEING IT MOVE GO IN A LITTLE BIT OIL, IT FEELS LIKE IT'S AT THE MARGINS. LAURA: THAT'S MARKETS REACTIONS TO THE

ESCALATION IN GEOPOLITICS. WE DID SEE FLIGHT TO SAFETY YESTERDAY. GOLD WAS RALLYING AGAIN TO RECORD HIGHS, BUT I THINK IT SPEAKS TO THE BROADER BACKDROP FOR MARKETS THAT THESE ARE MARKETS RALLYING ON THE BACK OF AGGRESSIVE MONETARY STIMULUS, ARE THE EXPECTATIONS THEREOF, AND FAIRLY RESILIENT GROWTH BACKDROPS AND SOME GOOD YET TO BE CHALLENGED IF WE WERE TO SEE THE ESCALATIONS PERSIST OR IF WE SEE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES BUILDING, AND CENTRAL BANKS DON'T FOLLOW THROUGH ON MARKET EXPECTATIONS. FRANCINE: MARKETS SEEM TO BE -- AGAIN, AT THE MARGINS, I KNOW THERE WAS A MOVEMENT YESTERDAY, BUT LOOKING THROUGH SOME OF THE GEOPOLITICS, WHEN DO THEY REALLY TAKE NOTICE? LAURA:

IT DEPENDS ON WHETHER WE SEE A BROADENING OF THE GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS OR WHETHER WE SEE A CONSISTENT LENGTHENING. OR MAYBE IT MAY BE MORE CONCERNING. WE WILL SEE KNEE-JERK REACTIONS THAT ADDS TO THE VIEW THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE BOUTS OF VOLATILITY IN MARKETS. WE ALSO HAVE THE U.S. ELECTION COMING FORWARD. THIS DOES SUGGEST YOU HAVE TO HAVE A VERY DEFENSIVE AND SELECTIVE UP AND QUALITY POSITIONING IN YOUR PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS. FRANCINE: WHERE'D YOU PUT OIL? IS IT RANGE BOUND? WE HAVE A LOT OF SHALE FROM THE U.S. THAT HAS COME ON THE MARKET. IT'S DIFFERENT THAN FIVE OR SIX YEARS AGO. LAURA: WE ARE COMING OFF WHERE OIL HAD A CHALLENGING QUARTER.

WE HAD SAUDI ARABIA SAYING THEY WOULD ABANDON THE PRICE TARGET. THAT SUGGESTS THE RISKS ARE TILTED TO THE DOWNSIDE, BUT THEN YOU OVERLAY IT WITH GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND WE CLEARLY SEE OIL AS THE PRESSURE VALVE FOR IT. WE LIKELY SEE MORE RANGE BOUND TRADING ON THAT 75 DOLLARS, $80 RANGE MARKET UNTIL WE SEE CLARITY FROM THE SUPPLY SIDE AND WHAT WE SEE FROM GEOPOLITICS. FRANCINE: WHAT DO YOU BUY IN THIS MARKET? LAURA: THERE'S LOTS TO BUY. CERTAINLY, WE ARE LOOKING AT A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT EXPOSURES. JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS AT THE LONG END OF THE. EVEN TAKING ON UP AND QUALITY EQUITIES IN THE U.S.

THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES DESPITE THE VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY MARKETS ARE FACING. FRANCINE: LAURA COOPER, GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STAYS WITH US AS WE TALK MORE, AND WE WILL TALK ABOUT FRENCH GOVERNMENT BONDS. NIKE SHARES HAVE FALLEN PREMARKET AFTER THE SPORTSWEAR GIANT WITHDREW GUIDANCE. THEY ALSO RECORDED A 10% FALL IN FISCAL FIRST QUARTER REVENUE, JUST SHORT OF ESTIMATES. NIKE IS DOWN 5%. MUCH MORE TO COME. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> IT'S DEFINITELY TOO LOW. WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET POSITIVE GROWTH THIS YEAR, BUT THE MORE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM IS THAT WE DON'T ONLY HAVE A CYCLICAL GROWTH ISSUE, WE HAVE

A STRUCTURAL GROWTH ISSUE. FRANCINE: THAT WAS CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR TO THE CHANCELLOR OLAF SCHOLZ SPEAKING TO US ON THE GROWTH CHALLENGES THAT THE GERMAN ECONOMY IS FACING. EURO AREA'S SECOND-BIGGEST ECONOMY IS WRESTLING TO TACKLE ITS BUDGET DEFICIT. THE NEW FRENCH PRIME MINISTER HAS DELAYED TARGETS TO MEET THE EU'S BUDGET DEFICIT BY TWO YEARS. LET'S RETURN TO LAURA COOPER. IT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE A LOT OF SYMPATHY FOR FRANCE. HE NEEDS TO BALANCE THE BOOKS. HE HAS A VERY THIN MAJORITY AND NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. AS AN INVESTOR DOESN'T MAKE SENSE BUYING FRENCH BONDS?

LAURA: NO, THE POLITICAL RISK PREMIUM BAKED INTO FRENCH, PARTICULARLY, 10-YEAR, IS WARRANTED. WE COULD SEE CLOSURE CHILD SPREAD, BUT ONLY 60 TO 70 BASIS POINTS. IT'S CURRENTLY 75 BASIS POINTS. IF WE LOOK AT WHAT THE COMMENTS WERE YESTERDAY, YES, THEY EXPECT THE DEFICIT TO COME AT 5% NEXT YEAR, BUT TWO-THIRDS OF THAT EXPENDITURE WILL COME FROM ACTUAL SPENDING CUTS. ON THE OTHER ONE-THIRD WILL COME FROM TAXES. BUT THERE'S A LACK OF DETAIL IN HOW THEY ARE GOING TO ACHIEVE THAT. THEN THROW IN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELECTION, LET'S SAY IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO, AND THERE'S TOO MUCH POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY.

IN THE NEAR TERM, WE ARE SLIGHTLY TRIMMING OUR UNDERWEIGHT IN GOVERNMENT BONDS. BUT THE CHALLENGES PRECLUDE US FROM GOING OVERWEIGHT. FRANCINE: GERMANY IS NOT DOING GREAT. IS THERE ANYTHING YOU WOULD BUY UP IN EUROPE RIGHT NOW? >> THE GERMAN BACKDROP HAS BEEN CHALLENGING FOR SOME TIME. WE ARE SEEING BROAD SOFTNESS ACROSS THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY, AND CHRISTINE LAGARDE, HER COMMENTS TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, SUGGEST THEY ARE GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION COULD RETURN FOR A 2% TARGET IN A TIMELY MANNER. ON THE BACK OF THAT, WE EXPECT THE ECB TO CUT IN OCTOBER, THEN HAVE CONSECUTIVE CUTS. THE MARKET IS SLIGHTLY OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THAT, BUT WE STILL THINK THERE'S

OPPORTUNITIES IN TAKING GERMAN BOND EXPOSURE AS A SAFE HAVEN. WE SAW THAT BID YESTERDAY. HAVING SOME OF THAT EXPOSURE IN HEB, LOOKING AT SPAIN, GREECE, THEY HAVE BEEN STRUNG OUT PERFORMERS. AND THEN IN THE CREDIT SPACE, OPPORTUNITIES AND EUROPEAN BANK CREDIT UP AND QUALITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE BELLY OF THE CURVE. FRANCINE: I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE FED BUT THIS IS WHAT LARRY FINK SAID YESTERDAY ABOUT MARKET PRICING. LARRY: I THINK THE FORWARD CURVE IS WRONG. AND I THINK CHAIRMAN POWELL SAID THAT YESTERDAY. WE WILL BE PATIENT. I THINK THE AMOUNT OF EASING OF THE FORWARD CURVE IS CRAZY. I DO BELIEVE THERE IS ROOM FOR EASING MORE, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS

THE FORWARD CURVE WOULD INDICATE. FRANCINE: THE FORWARD CURVE IS CRAZY. WHAT DO YOU BUY IN U.S. TREASURIES RIGHT NOW? LAURA: THE FACT THAT THE FED PRICING LOOKS AGGRESSIVE IN OUR MIND. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CONSECUTIVE 25 BASIS POINT CUTS THROUGH TO NEXT JUNE. TERMINAL OF 3.5% MARK, STILL WELL ABOVE WHERE THE MARKET ANTICIPATES, BUT WE WILL SEE BOUTS OF VOLATILITY. FED POWELL THE OTHER DAY SAID THIS IS DATA DEPENDENCY MEETING BY MEETING. WE HAVE THE PAYROLLS PRINT ON FRIDAY, THAT IS GOING TO BRING ABOUT BOUTS OF VOLATILITY, SO WE ARE REALLY PLAYING THE SHORT END IN THE BELLY OF THE CURVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT, AND THEN STAYING OVERALL NEUTRAL.

DURATION. WE THINK THIS IS AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE CURVE COULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. WE THINK ABOUT THE ELECTION RISKS COMING THROUGH. FRANCINE: WE ARE GOING AROUND THE WORLD IN 60 SECONDS. THE BANK OF JAPAN, WE HAVE A NEW LEADER OF THE RULING PARTY. BUT HE IS CALLED AN ELECTION OF OCTOBER 27. THIS WAS A PLACE INVESTORS WANTED TO BE, ARE YOU TAKING A PAUSE UNTIL WE KNOW THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION? >> WE HAVE BEEN -- LAURA: WE HAVE BEEN SELECTIVE WITH AN EXCEPTION. THE BANK OF JAPAN WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY DOVE US, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE THE HIKE UNTIL DECEMBER OR JANUARY. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT HOW RAPIDLY THE JGB CURVE HAS STEEPENED, WE THINK THERE'S OPPORTUNITIES

LOOKING AT THE ALTAR LONGS THERE. IT'S REALLY MORE OF A GEOPOLITICAL RECESSION RISK HEDGE; SUPPLIED TECHNICAL'S ARE FAVORABLE. WE THINK THERE IS OPPORTUNITY; WE DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE THIS REPATRIATION TO THE JAPANESE BOND MARKET. THERE'S A NUMBER OF FACTORS IN U.S. GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM IS PERSISTING. MINISTRY OF FINANCE DATA SUPPORTS JAPANESE BUYERS GOING TO THE U.S. TREASURY MARKETS. AT THIS POINT, IT'S AWAY AND SEE MODE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE STRONG CONVICTION THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO REALLOCATE TO JAPAN, BONDS IN PARTICULAR. FRANCINE: IT DOESN'T CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHO'S IN THE WHITE HOUSE AFTER NOVEMBER 5? LAURA: FUNDAMENTALS WILL CONTINUE TO

DRIVE. IT'S ABOUT BEING SELECTIVE. WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF SECTORIAL DIVERGE IN TERMS OF EQUITIES. AT THIS POINT, IT CONTRIBUTES TO THE UNCERTAINTY THE MARKETS ARE FACING, WHICH SUGGESTS MORE VOLATILITY AHEAD. FRANCINE: THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. LAURA COOPER, GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST. TIM WALZ AND JD VANCE GO HEAD-TO-HEAD IN THE ONLY VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE BEFORE THE U.S. ELECTION. WAS THERE A KNOCKOUT BLOW? WE WILL BE LIVE IN NEW YORK, NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ FRANCINE: TIM WALZ AND JD VANCE HAVE GONE HEAD-TO-HEAD IN WHAT'S LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE BEFORE THE U.S. ELECTION IN FIVE WEEKS' TIME.

THERE WAS A SHAKY START FOR TIM WALZ BECAUSE HE STUMBLED EARLY ON, BUT THERE WERE NO KNOCKOUT BLOWS. SPARRING POINTS INCLUDED IMMIGRATION AND WHETHER DONALD TRUMP LOST THE 2020 ELECTION. QUEX DONALD TRUMP'S INABILITY TO SAY, HE IS STILL SAYING HE DIDN'T LOSE THE ELECTION. DID HE LOSE THE 2020 ELECTION? >> TIM, I'M FOCUSED ON THE FUTURE. DID KAMALA HARRIS CENSOR AMERICANS FROM SPEAKING THEIR MIND IN THE WAKE OF THE 2020 COVID SITUATION. >> THAT IS A NON-ANSWER. FRANCINE: LET'S BRING IN VONNIE QUINN WHO JOINS US FROM NEW YORK. SO HAPPY TO HAVE YOU ON, WHAT WAS YOUR MAIN TAKE AWAY FROM

THE DEBATE? VONNIE: THAT PART WAS PROBABLY THE MOST CONFIDENT PART OF THE NIGHT. IT WAS ESSENTIALLY A TRADITIONAL TYPE OF DEBATE. WE HAD ALL OF THE POTENTIAL THINGS THAT COULD'VE GONE WRONG IN OUR HEADS, WHERE THE CANDIDATES GOING TO PROVE THEY WERE THE RIGHT CHOICES, WHERE THEY GOING TO MAKE ANY KIND OF TROUBLE FOR THEIR CANDIDATES, AND WOULD WE LEARN ANYTHING NEW ON POLICY OR ABOUT THE CANDIDATES? IT'S FAIR TO SAY THEY PASSED ALL THE TESTER DIDN'T FAIL THEM WITH 34 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY, ANYTHING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE OR BREAK A CANDIDATE TO SWAY A POTENTIAL VOTER. THE ONLY NEW THING WE GOT ON POLICY WAS OUTSIDE THE DEBATE.

DONALD TRUMP WAS WATCHING THE DEBATE, AND WHEN IT CAME TO REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, HE PUT ON SOCIAL MEDIA THAT HE WOULD VETO ANY BAN ON NATIONAL ABORTION THAT CAME ACROSS HIS DESK. THAT WAS A BIG CHANGE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WHERE HE SAID HE WOULDN'T SIGN ONE BECAUSE IT WHEN IT COMES TO THAT. THAT WAS INTERESTING. JD VANCE BIG COMPLAINT WAS THAT KAMALA HARRIS HAS BEEN IN THE ADMINISTRATION FOR THREE AND A HALF YEARS, SO ANYTHING SHE SAYS SHE'S GOING TO DO, SHE SHOULD'VE ALREADY DONE. THAT'S A COMPLAINT LEVERED BEFORE. ONTO THE SWING STATES FOR MORE. FRANCINE: VONNIE QUINN THERE IN NEW YORK. COMING UP, IRON ORE AND THE

SPIKE ON STIMULUS MEASURES. WE WILL DISCUSS THAT AND MUCH MORE WITH THE CHIEF ECONOMIST AND HEAD OF NET ZERO AT MCQUARRIE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE POLLS. I'M HERE IN LONDON AND THESE ARE YOUR TOP STORIES. ISRAEL VOWS TO RETALIATE AFTER IRAN FIRES 200 BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT WERE LARGELY INTERCEPTED, SAYING TEHRAN MADE A BIG MISTAKE. TRADERS FLOCKED TO HAVEN ASSETS, WITH GOLD HOLDING NEAR RECORD AND CHINESE STOCKS SURGING IN HONG KONG ON STIMULUS BETS. THE PRIME MINISTER DELAYS PLANS FOR FRANCE TO LEAD ITS BUDGET DEFICIT TARGET WHILE OUTLINING PLANS FOR SPENDING CUTS AND TAX

HIKES. ISRAEL'S PRIME MINISTER, BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, VOWED TO RETALIATE AFTER IRAN FIRED 200 BALLISTIC MISSILES AT THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT. THE BARRAGE STARTED ONLY HOURS AFTER THE U.S. WARNED AN ATTACK WAS IMMINENT. THE ISRAELI ARMY SAYS MANY MISSILES HAVE BEEN INTERCEPTED, WITH REPORTS ONE PERSON WAS KILLED IN THE WEST BANK. >> IRAN MADE A BIG MISTAKE TONIGHT AND IT WILL PAY FOR IT. THE REGIME IN IRAN DOES NOT UNDERSTAND OUR DETERMINATION TO DEFEND OURSELVES AND OUR DETERMINATION TO RETALIATE AGAINST OUR ENEMIES. >> THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD AND IRAN'S ARMED FORCES ARE ALREADY DEFENSIVELY TO REPEAT THIS OPERATION WITH MULTIPLIED INTENSITY. FRANCINE:

OIL EXTENDED ITS GAINS AFTER IRAN'S ATTACK. WITH US AS OUR SENIOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR ENERGY AND COMMODITIES. HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN THE PRICE OF OIL GO? I KNOW IT'S REFLECTING THIS RENEWED RISK PREMIUM, BUT ACTUALLY, IT HASN'T REALLY GONE OFF THE RAILS. >> I THINK THE MOVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE ATTACK LAST NIGHT IS SIGNIFICANT AND THEY JUMPED 5% AND IMPORTANTLY HE HAS HELD THOSE GAINS. IT IS A SIGNAL THAT TRADERS ARE RECALIBRATING THE RISKS OF THE OIL MARKET IN THIS WIDENING CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. YOU ARE LIKELY TO SAY THE UPSIDE IS CAP THEN ONE OF THE REASONS TO SAY THAT IS THE CASE IS BECAUSE OPEC AT THE MOMENT

HAS SPARE CAPACITY. SAUDI ARABIA IN THE UAE COULD SEE EXTREME SCENARIOS PAYOUT, WHICH COULD DISRUPT IT AND POTENTIALLY REPLACE THOSE BARRELS. THE OVERALL MARKET PICTURE IS NOT ESPECIALLY TIGHT AND I THINK THAT MEANS WHILE TRADERS ARE ALIVE TO THE INCREASED RISKS OUT OF THE EVENTS, IT IS IT -- IT ISN'T GOING TO GET OUT OF HAND. FRANCINE: WILL IT BE SHORT-LIVED BECAUSE OF THESE SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS? >> THE MARKET WILL BE VERY ALIVE TO WHATEVER HAPPENS IN TERMS OF ISRAELI RETALIATION. EVERYONE HAS BRACE SIGNIFICANT REACTION FROM ISRAEL'S ARMED FORCES, MORE SO NOW WE SAW A SIMILAR CYCLE IN APRIL AND ONE

CONCERN IS THAT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ISRAELIS ARE GOING TO TARGET, BUT ONE WOULD BE OIL INSTALLATIONS. THAT WOULD CLEARLY HURT THE IRANIAN ECONOMY AND BE A SERIOUS WAY TO RESPOND. AND WHILE WE DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS THE CASE, IT IS A RISK TRADERS ARE PREPARED FOR. I THINK WE MAY SEE SOME TENSION IN THE MARKET UNTIL THE ISRAELI RESPONSE BECOMES CLEARER. FRANCINE: IF THERE IS AN ATTACK ON THE OIL INDUSTRY, WHAT DOES A SUSTAINED RALLY IN THE PRICE OF OIL LOOK LIKE, IS IT IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL? >> IS VERY HARD TO SAY, AND THE MARKET IS COMING FROM QUITE A BEARISH PLACE. WE'VE SEEN SOME VERY BEARISH MARKET POSITIONING IN RECENT WEEKS, MAINLY BECAUSE OF GLOOM

ABOUT THE CHINESE ECONOMY. NOW, SENTIMENTS ARE TURNING AROUND ON CHINA AND YOU COMBINE THAT WITH A DETERIORATING SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE RISK TO A MUCH WIDER WAR. I THINK WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE FROM HERE, BUT I WON'T BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT A NUMBER ON THAT FOR YOU. FRANCINE: THANK YOU FOR YOUR TERRIFIC BRIEFING. WILL KENNEDY IN CHARGE OF ALL OF OUR OIL. IRON ORE HAS SURGED NEARLY THREE MONTH HIGH AFTER CHINA HAS HOMEBUYING RULES AS PART OF WIDER MEASURES TO BOOST THE WORLD'S SECOND-LARGEST ECONOMY. JOINING US FOR MORE, I'M PLEASED TO WELCOME CHIEF ECONOMIST AND HEAD OF NET ZERO

AT MCQUARRIE. THANKS FOR JOINING US. IT'S BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE'VE SEEN YOU ON BLOOMBERG TV. IT'S A TREAT. IT FEELS LIKE THE WORLD IS UNCERTAIN, THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WAS OK, MARKETS ARE OK LARGELY BECAUSE OF EXPECTATIONS OF THE FED CUTS BUT WOULD HE DO WITH GEOPOLITICS AND HOW THAT PERMEATE THROUGH THE ECONOMY? >> THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WE'VE HAD BIG ECONOMIC SHOCKS, WE HAD COVID, INFLATION AND THE ENERGY SHOCK IN EUROPE. GLOBAL GROWTH IS MUCH MORE RESILIENT THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE. THE STARTING POINT IS ONE OF RESILIENCE. THERE'S ALWAYS GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES AND THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN FOCUS NOW.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM GEOPOLITICS COMES FROM THE OIL MARKET. UNLESS YOU GET A DISRUPTION IN OIL, IT WILL BE A VOLATILITY DRIVER RISKING RISK PREMIUM. BUT UNLESS YOU GET A PHYSICAL DISRUPTION, THE IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS LESS THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK. FRANCINE: WHY DO YOU THINK THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED? WE WERE TALKING IN THE NEWSROOM, BUT WE HAD LOWER OIL PRICE AND EXPECTED. I DON'T KNOW IF IT WAS A NATURAL STIMULUS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY, PLUS THE FISCAL STIMULUS WE HAD ALSO DURING COVID. >> I THINK WE CAME OUT OF COVID BETTER THAN PEOPLE HAD FEARED, PARTICULARLY THE SERVICES SECTOR HAS BEEN STRONG.

I THINK THE FISCAL STIMULUS WAS PART OF THAT, AND THERE WAS EXCESS SAVINGS, AND PEOPLE HAD MONEY IN THE BANK TO SPEND. I THINK THE OIL PRICE IS NOT THE BIGGEST COMPONENT, PARTICULARLY WITH THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY. THE PERVERSITY IS THAT THE U.S. IS THE BIGGEST OIL PROVIDER. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN THE PAST 15 YEARS HAS COME FROM THE UNITED STATES. YOU COULD ARGUE A HIGHER OIL PRICE IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY. IT HURTS A CONSUMER BUT BOOSTS BUSINESS. FRANCINE: SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT DEBT LEVELS? LIKE I'M NOT WORRIED ABOUT DEBT LEVELS; I WORRY ABOUT THE DEFICIT. WHEN YOU HAVE AN ECONOMY [STANDBY] DEFINITELY WORTH. AGAIN, THE U.S.

HAS BEEN REMARKABLE IN THAT WE'VE HAD THIS BIG INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES. STILL GROWING ABOVE TREND, AND EVEN THOUGH THE LABOR MARKET IS SOFTENING, IT'S SOFTENING FROM A STRONGER POINT OF VIEW AND INFLATION HAS COME BACK DOWN, SO THE FED'S EASING, MONETARY POLICY IS STILL RESTRICTIVE AND WHAT HAPPENS WITH FED POLICY DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ECONOMY. YOU PUT ALL THAT TOGETHER ON THE PROBABILITY THAT YOU HAVE IN NO LANDING, NOT EVEN A SOFT LANDING, IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RATE TO NEXT ZERO, I DON'T KNOW IF WE ARE IN A HIATUS OR IF IT STOPPED BECAUSE OF POLITICS OR OF PRIVATE COMPANIES ARE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO GO AT IT AND IT'S

NOT REALLY TALKED ABOUT AS IT WAS TWO YEARS AGO. >> IT'S INTERESTING IN THAT THERE'S A LOT OF DISCUSSION ABOUT THE IRA AND POLICIES IN EUROPE. THE REALLY BIG ONE AT THE MOMENT IS CHINA. CHINA CONTRIBUTED THREE QUARTERS OF THE INCREASING GLOBAL EMISSIONS OVER THE PAST DECADES. IN CHINA IS DOING ENORMOUS THINGS. CHINA INSTALLED TWO HUNDRED 90 GIGAWATTS OF NEW CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY. THE UNITED STATES INSTALLED 40. IT'S INTERESTING IN THAT YES THERE ARE CHALLENGES, THE POLITICS OF BECOME MORE DIFFICULT IN THE WORST. BUT IN CHINA THEY ARE MAKING LARGE GAINS. THE GLOBAL EMISSIONS ARE STILL GOING UP, THEY ARE GOING UP AT A SLOWER PACE, WHICH MEANS IT

WILL TAKE TIME. FRANCINE: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN -- HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR TECHNOLOGIES TO TAKE HOLD, DOES IT TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED OR JUST THAT SLOW DOWN THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN? >> THE POLITICAL WILL IS THERE. EVERY CORPORATE IN THE WORLD WOULD LIKE TO INVEST IN THIS SPACE. I'M OPTIMISTIC TECHNOLOGY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WHAT I SAY TO CLIENTS IS WE NEED TO FOCUS ON SOLUTIONS. WE NEED TO FOCUS ON DECARBONIZING, WE NEED TO FOCUS ON BUILDING RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY AND STORAGE. ONCE WE HAVE CLEAN ELECTRONS, THE FOSSIL FUELS WILL GO AWAY. WE NEED TO KEEP FOCUSED ON THAT. IT'S REALLY GOOD THINGS HAPPENING. FOSSIL FUEL SEARCH SUCH A BIG PART OF THE SYSTEM AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

IT'S A PROCESS AND WILL TAKE TIME. FRANCINE: DOES IT MEAN YOU HAVE TO ACCEPT LOWER RETURNS AND DOES IT DEPEND ON WHO'S IN THE WHITE HOUSE COME JANUARY 20 NEXT YEAR? >> I DON'T THINK INVESTORS WILL ACCEPT LOWER RETURNS. GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO FIND WAYS TO INCENTIVIZE INVESTMENTS AND ENSURE PEOPLE GET PAID TO MAKE INVESTMENTS. THAT'S WHAT THE YARA A -- IRA WAS ABOUT. I THINK THAT WILL BE THE PROCESS. ULTIMATELY, THERE WILL BE SOME INVESTMENTS TAKING A LOWER RETURN. BUT ACROSS THE BOARD IT'S UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT PRIVATE CAPITAL TO FUND THIS IF THEY WON'T MAKE THE SAME RETURN. FRANCINE: THERE'S A BIG VOTE ON FRIDAY THAT THEY EU WOULD IMPOSE TARIFFS ON CHINA EV'S. I CAUGHT UP WITH THE GERMAN

CHANCELLOR YESTERDAY AND HE WAS TIGHT-LIPPED AND SAID, WE HAVEN'T MADE UP OUR MIND. IS THERE A WAY WHERE CHINA CAN DO SOMETHING ON THEIR END SO THEY DON'T HAVE TO HAVE EXTRA TARIFFS, BUT THEY GIVE LESS SUBSIDIES TO CARMAKERS? >> THEY COULD, BUT FOR EUROPE, I THINK THIS IS A REALLY CHALLENGING ISSUE BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY COUNTRIES LIKE EUROPE -- COUNTRIES LIKE GERMANY, THE AUTO INDUSTRY IS A BIG PART OF THEIR MANUFACTURING BASE. CHINA IS OUTCOMPETING THEM AT THE MOMENT. WE CAN DEBATE HOW MUCH IS SUBSIDY DRIVEN. CHINA'S EXPORTS OF AUTOS HAVE GONE FROM ONE MILLION, THREE YEARS AGO TO 7 MILLION IN ANNUALIZED TERMS NOW. AUTO SALES HAVE FALLEN IN

GERMANY HAS LOST MARKET SHARE. IT'S NOT SURPRISING POLITICS IS GETTING MORE DIFFICULT. THE PROBLEM FOR GERMANY AS THEIR BIGGEST MARKET IS CHINA. CHINA WAS TO RETALIATE, THAT WOULD BE BAD FOR EUROPE. IT'S A VERY DIFFICULT POLITICAL ISSUE. FRANCINE: CHINA HAS DOMESTIC ISSUES. WILL THEY TRY TO GET THE EUROPEANS ANGRY? >> IT'S HARD TO SAY BUT I THINK IT'S UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL TAKE IT COMPLETELY LYING DOWN. BUT IT'S ACTUALLY A VERY DIFFICULT ONE. IF YOU TALK ABOUT GLOBAL EVEY'S, WHICH IS WHERE A LOT OF THIS CONVERSATION GOES, GROWTH HAS STALLED IN EUROPE WHEREAS CHINA IS STILL GROWING STRONGLY. 50% OF CAR SALES IN CHINA ARE NOW EVEY'S.

THERE'S A BIG STRUCTURAL CAP OPENING UP IN THE MARKETS, AND IT WILL BE CHALLENGING IN POLITICS TO DEAL WITH THAT. FRANCINE: DON'T BE A STRANGER, COME BACK. CHIEF ECONOMIST AHEAD OF NET ZERO AT MCCOURY. DIVERSIFYING FROM OFFICES TO RETAIL, LEISURE, AND RESIDENTIAL, WE DISCUSSED THE FUTURE WITH THE GROUP'S CHIEF EXECUTIVE. THAT'S NEXT, AND THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ FRANCINE: WELCOME BACK, SENTIMENT AROUND THE EUROPEAN OFFICE MARKET HAS IMPROVED, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN. IT WAS RECENTLY DOWNGRADED OVER SHORT-TERM REFINANCE, RISK, AND CONSTRAINTS. THERE WAS A SHOW OF COMMITMENT FROM SHAREHOLDERS. THEY SUBJECTED 300 MILLION

POUNDS AS IT SEEKS TO REINVENT ITSELF AS A MIXED-USE NEIGHBORHOOD. I'M DELIGHTED TO BE JOINED BY THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF CANARY WHARF GROUP. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. YOU HAVE BEEN WORKING AT THIS TO MAKE IT MORE ATTRACTIVE FOR LIFE SCIENCES COMPANIES TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM FINANCE AND MAKING IT MORE EXCITING NEIGHBORHOOD IN LONDON. HOW HAS IT GONE SO FAR? >> THE EVOLUTION HAS TAKEN OFF. WE STARTED THIS OVER NINE YEARS AGO IN TERMS OF BRINGING IN THE RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY, AND THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS WE HAVE NOT ONLY ADDED HUGE BOWEL DIVERSITY INVESTMENTS THAT MADE TONS OF AMENITIES. TO YOUR POINT, WE STARTED CONSTRUCTION ON EUROPE'S

LARGEST LABORATORY BUILDING. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT NORTH QUAY, THE THINGS GOING ON THERE, THERE'S A SPACE THAT'S EIGHT HUNDRED 20,000 SQUARE FEET AND YOU DON'T HAVE A SINGLE OCCUPANT. IT MUST GIVE YOU HOPE THAT PEOPLE WILL COME TO ACTUALLY INHABITED -- INHABIT IT AND RENTED IN MAKE GOOD USE OF AIR. >> ABSOLUTELY, CANARY WHARF IS ALREADY A BURGEONING LIFE SCIENCE ECOSYSTEM. A REGULATORY VERSION OF THE FDA. U.K. HEALTH AND -- HEALTH AGENCY IS THERE. WE OPENED OVER 40,000 FEET OF WET LAB SPACE. IN THE LAST YEAR WE HAVE LEASED 100,000 SQUARE FEET OF WET LAB SPACE. THE DEMAND IS THERE IN LONDON JUST DOES NOT HAVE QUALITY LAB

SPACE IN SCALE. FRANCINE: DO YOU WORRY ABOUT PRICING? WHAT WILL ATTRACT PEOPLE THERE INSTEAD OF -- I KNOW YOU WANTED A NEW URBAN OASIS, WHAT DO THE TENANTS WANT TO WANT TO MOVE TO CANARY WHARF? GREXIT ADDITION TO CREATING SPACE, IT'S ABOUT THE PLACE. HAVING GREAT CONNECTIVITY THE SITE YOUR REFERENCES NEXT TO THE STATION, SO CONNECTIVITY IS KEY, WE HAVE A HOST OF BARS AND RESTAURANTS AND IT PROVIDES HOUSING FOR THESE CORPORATE CELLS WANT TO BE HERE, ACCESS TO HEATHROW CITY, AND THE MARKETING TAGLINE IS IT'S ALL HERE. WE ARE PROVIDING AN ECOSYSTEM FOR COMPANIES THAT WANT TO BE THERE. FRANCINE: WAS ARE HARDER THAN YOU THOUGHT? HE RELEASED INITIAL PLANS FOR THE OVERHAUL OF HSBC TOWER. THIS IS NO SMALL FEATURE.

WHEN IS THE PLANNING APPLICATION DUE TO BE SUBMITTED, AND HOW ARE YOU TRANSFORMING THIS SPACE? >> WE ARE ON TARGET TO SUBMIT PLANNING NEXT SUBMIT -- NEXT SEPTEMBER, AND THE IDEAS TO BE READY TO GO IN LATE 2027. WE'VE GOT SUPPORTERS SHAREHOLDERS IN QIA ON THAT ASSET. THEY ARE INVOLVED IN THE ONE PLANET SUSTAINABLE EFFORTS, AND IT'S GREAT TO HAVE THEM AT THE LEAD OF TRANSFORMING WHAT WAS A SINGLE ASSAY INTO A MULTIUSE ASSET. FRANCINE: I HAVE IT ON GOOD COMPANY. THIS IS WHERE YOUNG KIDS LOVE TO HANG OUT. BUT AGAIN, THE NUMBERS DON'T NECESSARILY REFLECT THIS NEW REGENERATION PROJECT. YOU HAVE 350 MILLION POUNDS OF BONDS MATURING IN APRIL, WHAT

DO YOU PLAN TO DO? >> WE HAVE A TREMENDOUS RETAIL PORTFOLIO. TO YOUR POINT ABOUT NUMBERS, WE HAVE 67,000 PEOPLE VISITING. THIS YEAR WE WILL SURPASS 70 MILLION. THE DEMAND IS THERE, THE VIBRANCY IS THERE AND WE ARE IN THE MARKET WITH OUR RETAIL PORTFOLIO, WHICH WE WILL USE TO RAISE FINANCING TO PAY OFF THE BONDS. FRANCINE: WILL GET EASIER? HAVE YOU BEEN HELD BACK BY REGULATION? WHAT'S YOUR BIGGEST FIRST JUST FRUSTRATION? GREXIT IS HARDER TO DO BUSINESS IN THE U.K. THAN IT IS IN THE U.S. GOVERNMENTS WORKING ON PLANNING REFORMS, IT JUST TAKES A LOT LONGER TO GET STUFF DONE. FRANCINE: YOU WISH YOU COULD'VE

TRANSFORMED CANARY WHARF CRACKER -- QUICKER? >> IT IS OFFICIALLY OPEN TODAY AND IT IS REALLY TRANSFORMING HOW URBAN ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VIEWED IN EVOLVES SO THEY BENEFIT BOTH NATURE AND HUMANITY. IT HAS TAKEN OVER THREE YEARS TO GET DONE. FRANCINE: IS THERE ANYTHING YOU ARE LOOKING TO SELL? ASSETS OR THINGS LIKE THAT TO ENSURE A FINANCES OR TO MAKE SURE SOME OF YOUR BACKERS ARE HAPPY WITH YOUR FINANCIAL POSITION? >> I THINK BROOKFIELD IS VERY SUPPORTIVE AS YOU REFERENCE IN YOUR REMARKS. WE ARE CONSTANTLY OF THE MARKET. LAST YEAR WE SOLD SOME AFFORDABLE HOUSING TO SEE BRM. WE ARE CONSTANTLY LOOKING TO SEE WHERE WE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SELLING ASSETS, BRING IN JOINT VENTURE AND GROWING

CANARY WHARF. FRANCINE: HAVE WE UNDERESTIMATED THE IMPACT IT HAS HAD ON THE WORKPLACE, OR HAS IT ALWAYS BEEN THE SAME AND YOU ARE TRYING TO MATCH CANARY WHARF TO WHAT PEOPLE WANT? >> I THINK PEOPLE VALUE THE OUTDOORS AND THAT'S WHAT WE'VE DONE IN TERMS OF BRINGING NATURE AND THE BLUE IN THE GREEN TO CANARY WHARF. IF YOU AND I HAVE THIS CONVERSATION FOR YEARS AGO, THEY WOULD SAY THE OFFICE IS DEAD. THE OFFICES BACK, OUR NUMBERS GROW EVERY WEEK. IT'S HOW WE USE THE OFFICE AND HOW WE USE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE OFFICE IN TERMS OF AMENITIES, RESTAURANTS, HEALTH CLUBS, THE CONVENIENCE FACTOR PROVEN IN TERMS OF HOW NATURE BENEFITS OUR MENTAL WELL-BEING,

CREATIVITY, INNOVATION. I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO BE BACK IN THE OFFICE AND IT'S HOW THE OFFICE WAS CREATED. FRANCINE: WHY ARE THEY BOOKED TWO WEEKS IN ADVANCE? IT'S HARDER TO GET THIS BOOKING THAN IT IS TO GO TO SOME OF THE TOP RESTAURANTS IN LONDON. >> IT'S AN AMAZING SPORT. WE WERE GLAD WE GOT ON THAT. THEY CELEBRATED THEIR ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY LAST YEAR. NEXT TIME YOU COME I WILL INVITE YOU TO PLAY. FRANCINE: WHO ARE THE OTHER TWO PEOPLE? OPEN FOR APPLICATIONS. CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF CANARY WHARF GROUP. CAN A NEW CHIEF EXECUTIVE DO IT FOR NIKE? SHARES FALL IN PREMARKET TRADING AFTER DISAPPOINTING FIRST-QUARTER REVENUE. WE WILL HAVE THIS STORY NEXT.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ FRANCINE: SHARES AT NIKE ARE LEARNED AFTER THEY MISSED ESTIMATES AND WITHDREW ITS FORWARD YEARS GUIDANCE. JOINING US AS CONSUMERS GOODS REPORTER. AS ALWAYS, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. IS THIS REALLY THE LAST OF THE BAD NEWS? IT JUST SEEMS TO BE COMING THICK AND FAST. >> THIS IS A DIFFICULT THING FOR COMPANIES TO DO WITH NEW CEOS COMING IN. WIPE THE SLATE CLEAN. WHY SHOULD THE NEW GUY HAVE TO BE BEHOLDEN TO THE TARGETS OF HIS PREDECESSOR. THE PROBLEM WITH NIKE IS THEY'VE ACKNOWLEDGED THE CHANGES THEY HAVE TO MAKE WILL TAKE A LONG TIME. THEY HAVE TO REBUILD RELATIONSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. THEY HAVE TO GET A PIPELINE GOING OF NEW INNOVATIONS AND IT'S ALL QUITE TRICKY.

IN INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS THIS MORNING AT LAST NIGHT WERE SAYING THE OTHER DYNAMIC AS THE NEW GUY COMES IN, HE HAS TO INCREASE -- WITH ADVERTISEMENTS BEEN. THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE GREAT FOR MARGIN. HE'S GOING TO BRING IN A NEW CAREER OF PEOPLE WITH HIM. ALL OF THAT PUTS NIKE IN THIS WAIT AND SEE MODE AND HELPS EXPLAIN WHY SHARES FELL. FRANCINE: THIS IS A STRONG BRAND, YOU WONDER HOW WE CAME TO THIS, EVERY TIME I GO TO ONE OF THE BIG SHOPS, THEY DON'T HAVE THE SIZES, ARE THERE ANY QUICK FIXES? >> A POSITIVE NOTE HAS BEEN CHINA. IT DID DECLINE 4%, BUT IT WAS BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED BECAUSE THE CONSUMER GOODS SECTOR HAS BEEN VERY WORRIED ABOUT THAT.

SLOW DOWN. SO THAT HAS HAD A POSITIVE READ ACROSS EVEN FOR COMPANIES LIKE ADIDAS. BUT NIKE ITSELF ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WE ARE NOT WHERE WE WANT TO BE. WITH THAT. THE OTHER POINT IS THEY ARE CLEAR THEY'VE NEGLECTED THE RUNNER AND LOST MARKET SHARE AND PUTTING A LOT OF EFFORT INTO THAT. THEIR RUNNING SHOES, MODELS LIKE THE Y2K GREW FOURFOLD LAST YEAR, BUT THAT'S STILL NOT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR DECLINES ELSEWHERE. FRANCINE: JD SPORTS WAS UNDER PRESSURE AND ARE NIKE'S PROBLEMS CONTAGIOUS? >> JD SPORTS, THERE WAS A WORRY NIKE'S PROBLEMS WOULD MAKE IT MISSED ESTIMATES, BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT HAPPENED, IT EVEN BEAT THEM SLIGHTLY, BUT IT SHOWS THIS KIND OF DOWNBEAT MOOD

AGAINST THESE BIG PLAYERS AND HOW QUICKLY THEIR MARKET SHARE CAN BE ERODED BY UPSTARTS. IT SHOWS THAT THERE'S NO REST FOR THE WICKED. FRANCINE: YOU ARE RIGHT. THE COOL TRAINERS YOU SEE AROUND THE NEWSROOM ON THE YOUNG PRODUCERS. IF YOU SO MUCH. THE VERY LATEST ON NIKE. LATER TODAY THE FRENCH PRESIDENT WILL SPEAK AT A PANEL AT THE BERLIN GLOBAL DIALOGUE WITH OUR VERY OWN STEPHANIE FLANDERS, BLOOMBERG SET OF ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT. DO NOT MISS THIS GREAT PANEL, THE INTERVIEW AT 2:15 P.M. LONDON TIME. UP NEXT, BLOOMBERG BRIEF WITH DANI BURGER AND MANUS CRANNY IN NEW YORK, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON GLOBAL MARKETS AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WE

WATCH FOR ANY KIND OF RETALIATION FROM THIS MASSIVE IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK ON THE ISRAELI SIDE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

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이란은 이스라엘을 향해 200발의 탄도 미사일을 발사하여 직접 공격이 크게 확대되었습니다.

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이스라엘군은 대부분의 미사일을 요격하여 피해가 제한적이었고 한 명이 사망한 것으로 보고되었습니다.

하마스 지도부에 대한 참수 공격은 일시적인 능력 감소만을 가져왔을 뿐이며, 10월 7일 공격 1주년이 다가오면서 이스라엘은 여전히 위험에 노출되어 있습니다.

이란과 레바논의 미사일 발사가 계속되면서 분쟁이 확대될 위험이 커지고 있으며, 뚜렷한 중재자가 보이지 않습니다.

지정학적 긴장에 대한 시장의 반응은 차분한 편이며, 유가는 박스권을 유지하고 있고 변동성에도 불구하고 투자 기회는 여전히 존재합니다.

독일 경제는 재정적자로 어려움을 겪고 있고, 프랑스 신임 총리는 EU 재정적자 감축 목표를 연기했습니다.

불확실성과 다가오는 선거로 인해 프랑스 채권에 정치적 위험 프리미엄이 붙을 수 있습니다.

독일은 국채와 크레딧에 기회가 있지만 전반적인 경제 여건은 여전히 어렵습니다.

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미국 대선 전 유일한 부통령 후보 토론회에서 팀 왈츠와 JD 밴스 후보가 맞붙었지만 뚜렷한 승부를 가리지 못했습니다.

토론에서는 이민과 도널드 트럼프의 2020년 대선 패배에 대해 논의했는데, 왈츠는 초반에 고전했습니다.

한편, 이스라엘은 이란의 미사일 공격에 보복하겠다고 공언하면서 유가가 급등하고 트레이더들이 피난처 자산으로 몰려들었습니다.

석유 시장 혼란과 글로벌 경제 회복력

사우디아라비아의 여유 생산 능력은 석유 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨리는 극단적인 시나리오로 이어질 수 있지만, 전반적으로 석유 시장은 타이트하지 않습니다.

트레이더들은 석유 시설을 겨냥하고 이란 경제에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 이스라엘의 보복 가능성에 대비하고 있습니다.

최근 약세장에도 불구하고 중국 경제 회복과 중동의 긴장이 결합하면 유가가 크게 상승할 수 있습니다.

중국이 전 세계 배출량과 자동차 산업에 미치는 영향

중국은 전 세계 탄소 배출량의 가장 큰 기여를 해왔지만, 청정 에너지 설치에 있어서는 상당한 성과를 거두고 있습니다.

탈탄소화에 대한 정치적 의지가 강하며, 투자자들은 친환경 투자에 대한 경쟁력 있는 수익을 추구할 것으로 예상됩니다.

중국의 자동차 산업이 유럽을 앞지르고 있는 상황에서 중국산 전기 자동차에 대한 EU의 잠재적 관세는 정치적 긴장을 야기할 수 있습니다.

카나리아 워프 활성화: 새로운 생명과학 허브

카나리아 워프는 활기찬 생명과학 생태계를 조성하기 위해 820,000평방피트의 공간을 확보하여 변화하고 있습니다.

이 지역은 런던에 양질의 실험실 공간이 부족하여 수요가 많은 10만 평방피트의 습식 실험실 공간을 이미 임대했습니다.

이 재개발에는 다용도 자산과 리테일 포트폴리오가 포함되어 자금 조달을 위한 재개발이 진행되며, 임차인에게 뛰어난 연결성과 편의시설을 제공하는 데 중점을 두고 있습니다.

나이키의 주가는 매출 예상치를 누락하고 향후 가이던스를 철회한 후 하락하여 투자자들의 우려를 불러일으켰습니다.

새로운 CEO는 소매업체와의 관계를 재구축하고 혁신을 추진해야 하는 과제가 안고 있으며, 이는 시간이 걸릴 수 있습니다.

약간의 하락에도 불구하고 중국의 실적은 예상보다 양호하여 회사의 회복에 대한 희미한 희망을 제시했습니다.