I will begin the understanding of all the knowledge in the world. Today, due to time constraints, I will speak quickly. Right now, there is chaos in the Middle East. Israel seems eager to fight, and it appears that no one can stop this. The professor from Sungkyunkwan University, Professor Sung Il-kwang, who predicted that this could escalate into a full-scale war, is here with us again. He is currently at the Middle East Islamic Center at Sungkyunkwan University. Welcome, Professor.

Hello. Yes, indeed, the atmosphere is escalating rapidly. Right now, they are reporting that about 180 ballistic missiles have been launched, and other reports mention that they are fast-moving surface-to-air missiles. In any case, they have fired around 180 missiles.

Then, we all together intercepted missiles from France, and the situation is such that there is almost no damage. To intercept missiles that come flying like this is truly remarkable. Oh, but professor, I'm curious about something. Back in April, didn't Iran also have over a hundred missiles? Yes, there were 350 missiles, including drones, but at that time, there was still no significant damage, and we managed to block them well. Yes, they shot at each other a few times, but there was no damage on either side. The term that came out at that time was proxy fire. They exchanged fire without causing harm to each other. I hope it turns out the same this time. I really hope it does. However, the situation is slightly different now. The situation is slightly different because the United States is not actively discouraging Israel. In April, the reality was...

They were planning to attack more aggressively. Yes, but the U.S. really advised against that. So, when the elderly Biden spoke, they said, Alright, we understand, and carried out only minimal attacks. However, this time, Netanyahu has changed. He can't go that far, but he is not saying anything. Why do you think he has changed? 

Well, just a few days before the attack on Iran, the U.S. had already gathered information. They were continuously in contact with Iran, saying, We know you are preparing, so just hold on a little longer. Right? This time, they asked them to endure a bit more. It's unfortunate that Nasrallah died, but what can you do? War has broken out, so just hang in there a little longer. Once this passes, you will have a new president. Who will become the president?

If our Democratic Party becomes president, we will handle nuclear negotiations well. There are reforms and openings; the economies of the UK, France, and the United States are under sanctions, but you will be able to recover if you just hold on a little longer. We made such a request, and Israel also conveyed a message. They know you are planning to launch something, and we heard about it. We can't say who we heard it from, but we did hear it. We don't know what you are planning to launch, but even if it is something small, we won't let it go. We told you not to launch anything. However, this was largely ignored, and in April, about 120 ballistic missiles were launched, with roughly 80 of them being pure missiles without any other types. If a heavy explosive is loaded, a ballistic missile can carry explosives that can reach over 700 kilometers.

It's incredibly large, much larger than the missile that was stacked up to 180. So, on the Israeli side, the mood is quite unpleasant. What's more significant is that reports coming from Israel state that this missile was targeting Israel's nuclear facilities. The trajectory of Iran's missile was heading toward the nuclear facility located in the Dimona desert area in southern Israel. We intercepted it as it was flying toward Dimona. In the past, you only targeted military areas, military bases, and intelligence buildings, right? But this time, it seems that was not the case. You also targeted civilian areas and facilities. If we hadn't intercepted it, many civilians would have died.

It was obvious. Why did you do that? I think this time it will be a bit hard to hold back. The attack that Iran launched this time seems to be a very serious one, right? It's quite serious. But Israel struck first, and then when they react, feeling betrayed doesn't make sense. They wouldn't feel betrayed. In fact, we could have predicted this. If we kill someone like Hassan Nasrallah, they would definitely not just sit still. It would be hard for them to stay quiet. They probably won't stay still. If the U.S. had intervened, it could have been handled better. Now that Iran has reacted, Israel has also been hit with about 180 ballistic missiles. They just shrugged it off without any damage, so they might just let it go again. So, Professor, what is going on right now?

이스라엘은 지금 순한 부들을 요격하고 있지 않습니까? 요격이라는 표현이 지금 암살을 의미하고 있잖아요. 이스라엘이 암살을 하고 있다는 입장에서는 가만히 있지 않고, 이게 막 인내심의 한계를 느낄 정도의 상황이 된 것 같습니다. 그러면 이스라엘도 분명히 공격이 올 것이라는 것을 알고 있었을 겁니다. 공격을 안 할 리는 없을 거예요. 그런 계산이 있었을 테고요. 그럼 이스라엘의 궁극적인 목표는 이란이 공격해오면 우리는 그냥 가서 초토화를 시킨다는 것입니다. 이란과 붙을 명분을 찾는 거죠. 정확하게 저는 그 점을 짚어주셨다고 봅니다. 네, 그걸 공개적으로 얘기는 못하지만, 이스라엘이 그만큼 자신감에 차 있다는 이야기입니다. 지금요, 예, 자신감에 차 있는 거고, 쉽게 말해서 우리가 모 영화에서 나오는 그 유명한 대사 있잖아요. 예를 들어와.

Come in, come in, come in. What does Israel want to achieve through this war? Right now, Israel doesn't really want to engage in a full-scale war. At this point, I don't know about other times, but they are currently dealing with Gaza. They just started this busy period, and in the midst of all this, what does Israel have to gain from a full-scale war? But why is that? What I want to say is that Israel is currently in the process of systematically dismantling the axis of resistance against Iran. What is the axis of resistance against Iran? It includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas, which can be seen as a kind of resistance axis, as well as pro-Iran militias in Syria and Iraq.

가장 중요한 축은 저항의 축은 누굽니까? 헤즈볼라입니다. 그래서 헤즈볼라를 거의 제압을 하고, 또 혹시 이라크에서 누가 우리 쪽에다 단도 미사일이나 드론을 쏘면 우리는 이라크도 이제 간다. 최근에 예멘에서 1700km 날아가서 때리고 왔잖아요. 그런 거예요. 지금 완전히 수세에 몰려 있다가 작년 하마스의 공격에 수세에 몰려 있다가, 해지 레단 삐삐 공격을 기점으로 완전히 공세적으로 바꿨어요. 더 이상 우리가 이란이 중동 지역에 만들어 놓은 대리 조직들을 누군가만 주지 않겠다. 우리를 건드리면 이제는 무조건 거기에 대한 보복 공격, 원점 타격 들어간다. 건드리지 마라. 왜 바뀌었을까요? 일단 자신감이 생겼고요. 헤즈볼라, 하마스 잡고 나서 자신감이 생겼고, 헤즈볼라는 거의 지금…

They thought they had caught it, and confidence grew. Then, the timing of the faction is quite exquisite. Why? Because they first declared that they would pursue reform and openness, and it is unlikely that they will come out publicly. They cannot do so. In a way, the timing has put the faction in a difficult position. If a hardline president had emerged in Iran, they wouldn't be talking about reform and openness; they would have continued on their own path with a strong stance. Iran could certainly be in a position to confront Israel. However, with a reformist president, what did they say from the beginning? They said they would take a completely different course. In the past, they were like gangsters or special agents, living off their illicit gains, and now they are in a situation where they are almost under attack. The timing for Iran is really not good.

Even if the chairman wants to actively engage, right now, we need reform and openness. The economy is difficult, and President Seogi, who continues to face challenges, went with a large delegation to discuss dialogue, compromise, and reform. In this situation, engaging in full-scale war with Israel, and considering the backing of the United States, creates a potential for escalation, which is quite dangerous. Ultimately, they couldn't hold back and decided to strike. Iran could have escalated the situation further, but I think they managed to restrain themselves somewhat. However, Iran certainly has the capacity to escalate; they have many more ballistic missiles and could launch a much stronger attack. Yet, just because they could attack doesn't mean that this strike should be overlooked or taken lightly.

It seems that Israel is not considering fighting with Iran yet, and it looks like they just want to deal with Hezbollah this time and leave Iran alone. If that's the case, Israel is unlikely to retaliate against Iran for the 180 missiles fired. No, if that happens, wouldn't it mean an actual confrontation? If they do that, from Israel's perspective, they haven't directly provoked Iran. They have touched Iran's allies or siblings but not Iran itself. However, now that a brother is in danger, the father or the older brother has jumped in, right? So, Israel has taken a hit. How can they just let it go? I believe there is a high possibility of a retaliatory attack against Iran. No, I think it's 200% likely to happen. But once it happens...

Iran needs to engage, but you mentioned that it's not what Israel wants. They don't want it, but if you want to come in and have a dialogue with us, then you're welcome. So, that's the situation. Israel will inevitably respond with a counterattack, but the question is whether Iran will retaliate or hold back. That's where the decision lies: whether to stop or continue. However, Iran has already given its answer. They clearly stated, We will attack. Iran is currently saying, We have completed our preparations, so if Israel does not attack us, we will not carry out any additional attacks. This means that they are essentially telling Israel to hold back. So, the current situation is that Iran is saying to Israel, You hold back, while Israel is also saying to Iran, You hold back. From our perspective, Israel has already conducted attacks, and Iran has 180 capabilities ready.

If it had happened, it would have been settled. This time, Israel has to come out again. Hey, Israel, are you going to just sit still? Oh, come on, it's not the time to just stand there after getting hit 180 times. This situation doesn't seem right because Israel attacked first, right? Hezbollah, and they gained quite a lot from it. If Iran doesn't retaliate, it would be completely out of the question. How can we say they should just take it? They are also a powerful side. So, if they were to use a knife, it would just pass by without any impact. The reason I'm saying this is that Israel wants to make its own decision about whether to fight with Iran or not. But, professor, if you say that Israel will fight if Iran attacks and won't fight if Iran doesn't, then that's not the situation Israel wants, because everything depends on Iran.

That's right. So, no matter how Iran comes out, they must have something they want to do. What is that? On the contrary, Iran might not have wanted to engage, but Israel keeps attacking, killing people, and so on. So, it seems like they have no choice but to get dragged into it, which is understandable. If Israel doesn't attack this time, I don't think Iran will retaliate either. That's for sure. However, depending on what Israel wants to do, if they want to confront Iran, they might say, Hey, we launched missiles at you, now we are going to fight. If they don't want to fight Iran, they could use other means to manage Hezbollah instead. They will likely continue doing that. So, what we're curious about is whether a full-scale war with Iran is possible or not. That's what we are most interested in.

The question that If is currently posing to the professor is exactly what everyone around the world is curious about. What is it? Why is Israel attacking Iran here? I've already mentioned that Israel will definitely strike back; they will hit without fail. What they will target hasn't been decided yet, but they will not let this go unanswered. This is truly the case. 

So, that means Israel wants to engage with Iran, right? But that doesn't mean they can't launch a limited attack. Whether they want to engage or not, I'm not sure, but if it comes to that, we are definitely ready to fight. 

So, as I mentioned earlier, I'm prepared to fight you anytime. If you want a full-scale war, I'll accept that. So, Israel is also willing to go to full-scale war with Iran. Why? Because when they killed Qasem Soleimani, Israel crossed all red lines.

We have surpassed that point, and here we must consider that Iran has a sufficient possibility of attacking us. Even if they do come at us, we will not retreat. The question has somewhat returned: from Israel's perspective, we must consider the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran. Currently, we also have to prepare for a full-scale war with Hezbollah, who has already attacked. So, what can we do? The front lines are already complicated; there are conflicts in the north, south, and west. Is that possible? Yes, it is possible. Iran is particularly far away, so how can we engage in a full-scale war? Can F-35s fly in and destroy everything? They don't have fighter jets. Israel is that overwhelming. In April, when Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear facilities, they simply went in, hit the targets, and came out without being stopped. You could say that Iran's defenses are almost nonexistent; their military capabilities are like a museum. You might as well put them in a museum.

I see, so you want to say that Israel is looking for a full-scale war. I believe that the timing is not right for that. They could do it anytime, but they are busy now. They could do it later, but right now, Israel is actively engaged, and things are not settled yet. So, I think this is not the right moment for a full-scale war. Therefore, I don't see the attack on Hezbollah as an attempt by Israel to draw Iran into the conflict. The killing of the Hezbollah leader is problematic because Hezbollah has its own agenda. I don’t believe they are trying to draw Iran in to engage in a full-scale war. However, from Iran's perspective, they might think that way. They could consider it that way, but the original reason for Israel's current operation is...

I don't think that's the case. As I mentioned, the intentions are quite impure. They were trying to strike nuclear facilities and target civilian infrastructure. This is what Iran is saying regarding Israel. Furthermore, there was a terrorist attack in a city located beneath Tel Aviv. Yes, in this civilian attack, two Palestinians came armed and six Israeli civilians were shot and killed. There is a suspicion that this incident is somehow linked to Iran's attacks. Overall, there is a sense of shock from the terrorism affecting all of Israel. The atmosphere is currently quite negative. Of course, one might argue that while 40,000 people have died in Gaza, it's unreasonable to say that the mood is bad just because six people died here, but nonetheless...

There is such a situation. So, if this is allowed to continue, what do you think other resistance forces will say? They will probably say the same thing. If Israel attacks Hezbollah like this and Iran does not retaliate, they will say, Ah, it's a paper tiger. Right? Then, Iran has 180 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, and if Israel does not fire a single missile in response, they will say, Ah, Israel is a paper tiger. This means that Israel cannot afford to not respond at least minimally. They will respond. However, I think the atmosphere is different from what it was in April. It's more aggressive now. The focus is on nuclear facilities or oil facilities. So, looking back at the situation before the recent incident, there were many casualties in Israel, right?

Internally, protests are now breaking out, and amidst all this, there are anti-government demonstrations calling for the government to resign during a time of war. The atmosphere was one where the momentum seemed to be weakening. However, suddenly, following the incident with the pager, Israel has become extraordinarily aggressive, right? It seems that, as a result of that incident, there has been a shift in internal judgment. 

So, what about public opinion within Israel? It appears that the opposition to the military offensive has diminished significantly. The situation has transformed to a mindset of we need to win this war, even though the war is escalating. The Israeli public is likely to oppose the war in Gaza, especially since no hostages have been released yet. Although negotiations have been ongoing, no agreement has been reached.

Yes, the hostages could not undergo training, so more than half will likely oppose it. However, regarding the war with Hezbollah in northern Israel, more than half will likely support it. As I explained last time, about 70,000 to 80,000 Israeli residents living near the border have not been able to return home for a year, and their towns have been nearly destroyed. Rockets have burned everything, and it has become a ghost town. In such a situation, if the Israeli government had done nothing and simply let it go, perhaps an agreement could have been reached to avoid future attacks. If there had been any agreement at all, it might have been possible to let it go. However, since there was no agreement, Israel launched a surprise attack, and that marked the starting point. With this attack, Israel has effectively gained the upper hand and has gained momentum.

They believe they have almost suppressed Hezbollah, the strongest force in the axis of resistance. So, they think that they can eliminate the remaining forces of resistance. Therefore, the Houthis will continue to attack because they have stated that they will never give up. If Israel attacks again, it will respond and launch further attacks. If there are attacks from Iraq or other regions, Israel will actively engage and expand the front lines. 

Now, considering the worst-case scenario, which is that the war escalates significantly, Israel's position is that they will absolutely respond. If Iran were to come out with a desperate determination, that would indeed be the worst-case scenario. What is the likelihood of that possibility?

Now, we cannot know for sure, but I should mention that when a war starts, it can unintentionally go in a different direction. There’s a risk of misunderstanding each other’s intentions, leading to more intense actions and stronger attacks. As a result, there is a significant possibility that the war could escalate. This is a very dangerous situation. For example, if they attack oil facilities, considering how difficult the economy is in Iran, if the Israelis come and strike those facilities, how furious would the Iranian people be? The Iranian citizens would be angry, and the conservative hardliners would also be furious. They cannot just let that go. This would lead to renewed attacks on Israel, and then Israel might respond with, Let's see who can do more.

Let's try to win until the end. It will probably continue to be a T-Potato situation. As for Iran and the rest, Hezbollah has now essentially disappeared. However, Hezbollah continues to operate through ground forces. Regardless of whether they will continue their operations, it is separate and also aimed at the expulsion of Hezbollah. While they may not be completely destroyed, they are aiming to significantly dismantle the weapons systems that Hezbollah possesses. There is a lot of infrastructure that Hezbollah has built to attack Israeli towns by crossing the Israeli border, including watchtowers and underground tunnels. All of these are currently being dismantled. In Israel's history, there has rarely been a time when Israel has responded this strongly. We are entering a new phase. Yes, Hezbollah is also...

Before the war, most experts said that Hezbollah was strong, but Hamas was on a different level. That's right; Israel is significantly affected. Because of this, Israel has essentially continued to delay a full-scale attack. They kept postponing it, and now the situation has reached a critical point. During this time, the bombing incident occurred, and in fact, Hezbollah was almost left in a state of shock. They were caught off guard by a surprise attack. Even before the bombing incident, for several months, they had systematically assassinated members of Hezbollah one by one. So, their organization was completely dismantled. As a result, they are unable to respond systematically, and on top of that, Israel continues to conduct airstrikes on the hidden weapon caches and infrastructure of Hezbollah. In simpler terms, they landed a significant blow but were left in disarray.

In the situation we are in, they have been down, and they are continuously being pressured so that they cannot regain their composure. Yes, it is a situation where they are being relentlessly pushed. Israel also wants to eliminate Hezbollah this time. That's right. Until now, eliminating Hezbollah would only lead to younger individuals rising up and becoming a second Hezbollah. So, they cannot completely eradicate it this time, of course. There will be a second and a third, and Shiite groups in Lebanon will emerge. However, through maximum pressure and military means, they intend to completely transform Hezbollah's armed organization as much as possible. Why has Israel been patient until now and then decided to devise such a large plan and take unprecedented offensive actions? Last year, Hezbollah was the first to say they would help Hamas.

They attacked, right? Before that, there had been no attacks. The incident with Hamas, Hamas declared war, and then Hezbollah aligned with them. They created another front in the north to weaken Israel further. They attacked first, so for 11 months, they endured a fierce war. Hezbollah initiated it, but they weren't originally the type to engage in such actions. Israel is indeed the kind of country that does that. However, they had no justification for engaging in combat. Since the 2000s, especially after 2006, things had been quiet and peaceful. It was calm, but then it escalated. They said they would take action. From Israel's perspective, after more than ten years, Hezbollah was resisting strongly for the first time.

Israel faced resistance, and after the incident with the PLO, Hezbollah has been left almost disoriented. This is a rare opportunity that comes once in a hundred years. The PLO incident became a significant catalyst, marking a turning point. They believe they have seized the initiative and are pushing forward. That's correct. However, it's not just about ending Hezbollah; if they touch on other resistance groups, Israel seems to be signaling that this time they won't hold back. This is their position. Nevertheless, their strategic goal still seems to focus on Hezbollah. If Iran gets involved, they can't ignore it, but that doesn't seem to be their primary consideration at the moment. That's right. Well, if things go well, they might just leave it at that. I hope it turns out that way, but Israel is feeling aggrieved yet willing to endure for now.

If we focus on Hezbollah's attacks, Hezbollah is already in a state where they have gained a lot of ground, and the situation will completely collapse. Let's see what happens next; this is the best-case scenario from our perspective. Now, can we endure as the war is slightly coming to an end? That is the issue. Since 2006, Hezbollah has been quiet enough that Israel hasn't had a justification to strike. They have been a quiet model student. So why did Israel start planting seeds of discord there two or three years ago? Since 2006, Israel has been struggling, looking for a justification for revenge. They need to gather information and prepare for retaliation. I believe there were many reasons for this, not just one or two; it seems like they had a plan to eliminate them three years later.

If there was a plan, it would make sense to plant bombs. However, it seems they were just planted in case of an emergency. Looking at the current situation, Israel wasn't planning any operation with Hezbollah, nor did they expect an attack from Hamas. They couldn't foresee how this would unfold, so we can't say that Israel was trying to provoke Hamas; they were caught off guard. In this situation, Israel is fundamentally aware that war with Hezbollah is an inevitable conflict, and it's just a matter of time. It's a matter of time. The same goes for Hamas; it's a matter of time. Therefore, until that time comes, they have been continuously preparing—planting bombs and ensuring that their internal communications are secure, doing everything they can to get ready. I understand. It's concerning. I wonder if we have planted any bombs in North Korea, which we now consider our main enemy.

We must have planted something. Oh, Israel is meticulous. It seems that Israel is extraordinary, preparing as if they are going to fight tomorrow. Right now, who knows how hard they have been running away, looking for places to destroy buildings, just shooting and killing everyone. How do they know where to go? Their internal communication network has been almost entirely compromised. You can think of it as human intelligence; they have their own internal communication network, not just cell phones but also walkie-talkies or specific signals they use. That has already been figured out. So, with human intelligence and signals intelligence, along with drones and satellites capturing everything, they are tracking where everyone is going. They are really finding locations. It seems that Israel is determined to end this long-standing conflict with Iran once and for all.

I don't know what can be concluded in this all-out war, but my thought is that they are willing to take on an all-out war. Traditionally, Israel has wanted to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, so they see this as an opportunity. If Iran retaliates, the president of Iran will certainly face a counterattack from Israel, and how Iran responds will be the most crucial point to watch right now. So, Israel's attack is unavoidable; they will definitely carry it out. The important thing is where they will strike. Depending on where they attack, Iran's response will vary. In any case, Israel has no intention of holding back. They really have to endure, but if they endure too much, they could end up being taken advantage of.

I think it's about enduring weakness, right? Especially in the Middle East, it's a tribal way of thinking. If you show even a little bit of vulnerability, it's immediate. So this time, Iran couldn't launch missiles. In that sense, there's an understanding of why. Because before all of this, all the mockery aimed at Iran through cartoons and content was overwhelming. They were saying, Look at Iran, the paper tiger! They are so afraid that they can’t even defend themselves! So there was a situation where Iran had no choice but to respond. I understand that. However, regarding Israel's plans, I still don't know much. But it seems to be very aggressive. How Iran responds will determine the outcome of the entire situation.

I think it's possible. Yes, I understand. Oh, this is becoming a worrying issue. It's quite troublesome. However, I sincerely pray that I am wrong. Yes, Professor Sung Il-kang from Sungkyunkwan University, I actually contacted you early this morning. You didn't betray my understanding and came. Right now, I am also receiving calls from several broadcasting stations, saying that because you are scheduled to appear at 7 o'clock, our programs have been disrupted. What on earth is the relationship? I really appreciate it, Professor Sung. 

There is indeed a relationship. Professor Sung Il-kang's YouTube channel has surpassed 10,000 subscribers. It seems we need to aim for 20,000 now. Please make sure to visit and search for Sung Il-kang on YouTube.

다 나와 만 명 넘었다니, 이제 좀 죽지 않고 살아날 것 같습니다. 아, 죽는 줄 알았어요. 나 포기한다고 생각했어요. 아, 지난주에 와서 그만해야겠다고 했는데, 뭐 이래서 조금만 더 해보세요. 네, 송 교수님 고맙습니다. 고맙습니다. 고맙습니다.

이스라엘은 반드시 이란에 보복 공격할 겁니다 (서강대학교 유로메나연구소 성일광 교수)

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