이란-이스라엘 분쟁: 현재의 긴장과 향후 전망

### 고조되는 긴장: 미국 대선을 둘러싼 이란과 이스라엘의 갈등
* ⚔ 이란은 **추가 공격을 위협**하는 동시에 **휴전**을 요구하고 있어 이스라엘과의 적대 행위가 계속되는 가운데 복잡한 협상 전략을 구사하고 있음을 시사합니다.
* 📰 11월 4일 현재, 양국이 서로 공격을 주고받고 있고 **미국 대선이 분쟁의 역학 관계에 영향을 미칠 잠재적 변수**로 떠오르면서 상황은 여전히 불투명합니다.
* 📊 선거 기간에 **이스라엘에 대한 이란의 공격 가능성**이 있다는 정보 보고가 있지만, 아직 확인된 바는 없습니다.
* ✈ 이스라엘은 이란의 탄도 미사일 공격에 대한 보복으로 **전투기 100대를 동원해 이란의 방공 시스템을 성공적으로 타격**했다고 주장하고 있지만, 이란은 피해 규모에 대해 이의를 제기하고 있습니다.
* 💣 이스라엘군은 **미사일 공장과 방공 시스템을 포함한 이란의 핵심 시설**을 파괴했다고 주장하는 반면, 이란은 **지하 시설로 인해 상당한 피해**를 입었다고 주장하고 있습니다.
* 🤔 이란은 **이스라엘 공습의 영향을 경시**하고 언론을 위해 상황을 과장하고 있다고 주장하는 등 **양측의 주장이 상충**하고 있습니다.
* 🌍 미국 대선이 다가오면서 두 후보 모두 분쟁을 종식시키겠다는 의사를 표명하고 있어 군사적 교전이 계속되고 있음에도 불구하고 **일시적인 긴장 완화**로 이어질 가능성이 있습니다.
* 🔍 이란이 이스라엘과의 지속적인 분쟁 속에서 첨단 무기와 지원을 모색하면서 **러시아 및 중국과의 군사적 관계를 강화**함에 따라 지정학적 환경은 더욱 복잡해지고 있습니다.

이란의 향후 공격은 아직 불확실하며, 이스라엘과의 긴장이 고조되는 가운데 휴전 협상을 위한 지렛대 역할을 할 가능성이 있습니다.

However, Iran is also saying it will attack again, and I'm not sure when that will happen. This makes me think it could be a tactic for negotiating a ceasefire. In fact, Iran doesn't want to prolong the battlefield anymore. Neither Iran nor the United States wants to escalate the situation, but Israel does. Currently, there are still exchanges of attacks between Iran and Israel. As of now, the exact situation is unclear. Today is November 4th, and it's difficult to say who has the upper hand. One variable leading up to the U.S. elections is that Iran has been targeting Israel.

There have been continuous reports from the intelligence agencies of Israel and the United States suggesting that an attack could occur. It was mentioned that, right before the elections, possibly as early as Sunday local time, which means it should have happened around today for us, there has been no news of such an attack yet. It seems that they cannot confirm that Iran has been attacked. The opinions regarding Israel's attack are somewhat divided, and even the observers have differing views. According to Israel's claims, Iran attacked Israel with a ballistic missile on October 1st, and in retaliation, Israel mobilized 100 fighter jets, including aerial refueling aircraft, successfully attacking Iran in three phases. Therefore, according to Israel's assertions, the S-300 system...

So, regarding Russia, we refer to it as SAD in the Russian context. They destroyed all four of Iran's air defense systems. They also took out the S-200 air defense system, which protects sensitive oil facilities and energy production sites. Furthermore, they destroyed the radar that Iran boasts can detect targets up to 1,000 kilometers away. They attacked and destroyed 16 factories related to ballistic missiles. To manufacture ballistic missiles, fuel needs to be mixed, and they also targeted and destroyed the mixing facilities. Now, Israel's claims are quite flashy; this is Israel's assertion. Iran claims that they did not suffer much damage. Israel says that they have hit us a lot, but most of our important facilities are underground, so Israel's attacks were ineffective. They assert that we managed to intercept most of the attacks. In reality, Israeli missiles over Tehran have...

I saw several missiles being shot down by Iran's air defense system. From what I observed, I think I saw about six or seven of them. After that, nothing else was reported. In the confrontation between Israel and Iran, four soldiers and one civilian were killed, but Iran's attack on Israel was not significant. Furthermore, a high-ranking Iranian official commented that Israel's attack was like firecrackers, saying it was nothing special. This led to criticism within Iran, questioning how he could say that when our soldiers and civilians were killed. Iran has stated that it was not a big deal. So, someone is lying. Someone must be lying. Looking back at the past, regarding Iran's nuclear facilities...

There was someone who was involved in surveillance, yes. He worked for MI6, the intelligence agency in the UK, and he is now retired. Among the British, there is a person named Alex Crew. He is someone who has more information than others and still has connections with various people. After the attack, on the following day, there was a YouTube video featuring a judge from the United States, which I watch quite often. In that video, he mentioned that he received information from sources in Israel. According to what he found out, during the first attack, Israel aimed to destroy Iran's air defense systems. They needed to take out the air defenses to carry out effective attacks in the second and third phases. It was reported that an F-35 was entering Iran to destroy the air defenses when it was detected by an unidentified radar. They realized that they had been caught by the enemy's radar. Then...

In fact, missiles were fired and intercepted. However, they were not launched, and we managed to escape. Therefore, we halted the operation and had to go further in to launch the missiles. They were launched from a location that is likely 70 to 100 kilometers from the Iran-Iraq border. Because the radar detected the first attack, we had no choice but to fire the missiles from that position, but those missiles could not be accurate. They could not be accurate at all. Additionally, we couldn't carry out a second or third attack because we were detected, so we just retreated. Meanwhile, Israel claimed that we were completely successful. There is one interesting point that aligns with what Iran is saying. Iran mentioned that Israel claimed our airspace was violated, but it was not violated; they came in from Iraq and then approached the border.

They claimed that they fired from a distance of 100 kilometers, but no one can verify this. Another point that has emerged over time from the Iranian side is that there have been reports in the media about an explosion caused by Israeli missiles in the Parachia and Shahnaz areas, specifically in a region known as Shahriar. According to the local residents, the missiles came flying from the north. So, where did they come from in the north? They came from Azerbaijan. Israel and Azerbaijan have a very close relationship, even though Israel is a Muslim country. Therefore, right now, Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, is suggesting that they need to take a closer look at Azerbaijan. This has been mentioned, and just yesterday, there were discussions between Iran and Azerbaijan.

In the Caspian Sea, joint naval exercises are taking place. What is going on with Iran? Are they just enduring it quietly, or are they noting it down for later? There are subtle processes happening continuously. But if one side has been destroyed and the other has not, then the side that was destroyed can show explosion scenes, photos, or videos of the destruction. On the other hand, the side that was not destroyed could present photos or showcase the location, claiming that they were not destroyed. Are both sides not showing anything like that? The photos that Israel is showing seem to be of lower resolution, or is that strange? They are showing the places that they claim were destroyed, but those images are from construction sites. From the beginning, Israel has been criticized for conducting secret attacks, with the defense minister involved in a war room setting, and so on.

There was a video uploaded to the Ministry of Defense, and it was in a conference room. In that conference room, there was a photo displayed that was supposedly of the explosion in Tehran, but it turned out to be a photo from the past. It was also a photo from Lebanon. So, there were discussions about whether Israel was just playing around with the media. There could be various scenarios, but to summarize, it is a fact that Israel deployed 100 combat aircraft. They reached a certain point for the initial strike, but it seems highly likely that they were detected by radar and had to turn back after firing. 

Iran claims that they attacked from around 100 kilometers away, and there were issues reported between 70 and 100 kilometers. Interestingly, after that, things went quiet. Another amusing thing is that when Iran posts photos...

They said they would punish us, so we don't know what kind of damage there is in Iran. We can't know for sure. The photos aren't being uploaded; there must be some, but they aren't completely absent. For now, from the Iranian side, it has been reported that four soldiers and one civilian have died. This means something must have fallen on the facility. Yes, that's true, but we don't know to what extent. Like Israel said, what is this unidentified radar? What could it be? It is highly likely that it is the S-400. There have been claims from Israel that Iran received the S-400 and Su-35 from Russia before the attack. Considering that, could it be that Russia and Iran conducted a joint operation regarding the S-400? Also, yesterday, they stated that they have no intention of conducting joint operations with Russia.

So, regarding our national defense and security, there are many secrets, and I guess we will understand more as time goes by. However, it is true that they deployed 100 fighter jets this time, as reported from the Israeli side. It seems they launched a significant number of jets, which raises the possibility of a full-scale war, doesn't it? A hundred fighter jets is not a small number, right? It's not a small number at all. But if they launched these jets and there wasn't much impact, that would imply a failure in the initial attack. Is that a failure in strategy, or could it just be a show of force? They went up to a hundred jets, but if they are stealth jets like the F-35, then the fact that they were detected is a serious issue. This raises concerns, especially since we have known about the S-400 systems since they were first introduced.

Well, the U.S. and Israel have been conducting a lot of evasive training. If you think about it, they might be worried that the secrets of the F-35 could be leaked due to Turkey's introduction of the S-400 system. The U.S. got upset with Turkey and decided not to send F-35s there. Furthermore, there are ongoing claims that Iran and Russia know all the codes related to the F-35. It might become difficult to operate using the F-35 anymore. In the case of Israel, previously, they had been known to conduct limited operations after informing about their preemptive strikes. Was it the same this time? This time, Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated otherwise, but there are continuous reports in the media suggesting that they informed the Dutch ambassador about where they would strike before the attack. Why would they do that? If you think about it, there could be two reasons.

There may be a meaning in saying, I'll hit you, so try to block it, and it could also carry a mocking tone, suggesting that you won't be able to block it. Another point is that we might have informed them just enough to say that we only struck after we had given them a warning. Isn’t it amusing that they got caught despite being informed? If they hadn't been informed, the chances of getting caught would have been higher, right? If we inform them, the likelihood of getting caught obviously increases. So, what is Iran looking at now? Where have these planes been? The countries that are now being targeted, which are on the blacklist, include Jordan. It appears to be Jordan and Gaza. Iraq is also a place with many pro-Iran factions and a U.S. military base. Could it be that they are focusing on Jordan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan? Yes, I am currently observing this.

Then, it seems that Iran is likely to face some attacks in the future. What I'm saying is not that Iran will attack directly, but that they are suggesting they will strike from Iraq. If they were to attack from their own territory, they would suffer significant damage, and they would likely retaliate. Alternatively, they might think about a one-on-one response, considering that Israel had previously failed in Iraq. Since Israel launched attacks from there, they might feel justified in starting from the same point, similar to what Israel did. I think this might be the implication. Furthermore, it's not just a simple attack; this time, multiple forces are planning to strike simultaneously. For example, there could be the Houthis from Yemen, Hezbollah, and other pro-Iranian, anti-Israel armed groups in Syria and Iraq that might coordinate their attacks. 

Regarding the U.S. presidential election, it's approaching, and after this week, we will know the results.

After the presidential election, how do you think the situation regarding the Iran-Israel conflict will change? Right now, both candidates are saying they want to end the war. According to reports from Israel, Trump has demanded that Netanyahu end the war before he is inaugurated if he becomes president. This indicates that Trump also has the intention to end the war. On the other hand, Harris has recently stated that she will work to end the conflict as well. Regardless of who becomes president, it seems that the war will at least come to a temporary halt. Of course, just because the U.S. president says so, it doesn't mean Netanyahu will immediately agree, but it seems like the U.S. will be able to take a breather for a bit.

Anyway, Israel is receiving support. Then, China and Russia have already established their stance, which is to support Iran. This is purely based on reports from the Israeli side. Before Israel's attack, they had already announced that they would attack. A while ago, Russian S-400s and Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets were brought into Iran. I'm not sure if Iranian pilots flew them in or if Russian pilots did, but there are claims that Russian pilots were involved. Additionally, it has been reported that China provided Iran with a laser system to intercept drones. If these reports are true, then it seems almost certain that Russia and China are conspiring to support Iran. Furthermore, regarding the previous attacks...

A few days ago, there was a BRICS summit where Russia fulfilled Iran's dreams. They announced that they would license produce Sukhoi 35 and 30 fighter jets in Iran. Parts will come in, and Russian technicians will assemble them in Iran, allowing Iran to possess 4.5 generation fighter jets. Until now, Iran's aircraft have been quite outdated, unable to fly properly, and they have only been launching missiles. While we can't say that these jets are better than American-made ones, they are certainly better than having nothing at all. Ultimately, the fact that Iran is bringing in aircraft means they will be integrated with the Russian system, right? Therefore, Iran's relationship with Russia will inevitably deepen. For example, they can't get too close to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, involving the U.S. and other nations, and then Russia's...

There is talk of a proxy war, but this refers to the situation where Israel and Iran are involved with the United States and Russia. It’s not really a proxy war; it’s more about Iran receiving assistance. In fact, Iran's dream has been to secure a reliable air defense system, but since the U.S. wouldn’t provide it, they turned to Russia. So, what Russia offered was that Iran would give the drones it had developed well to Russia. After Israel launched its attack, Netanyahu stated that if all objectives were lost, he might need to make painful concessions. This announcement raises the question of whether the hostage situation is a justification for Israel. Could this announcement indicate an end to the war? While we shouldn’t exaggerate and refer to it as a Middle Eastern war, it certainly pertains to the end of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The hostage exchange is seen as the final stage, but Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to...

Whenever it seems like a ceasefire negotiation is about to take place, they change their words, which makes it hard to know how much of this can be believed. We should have conducted hostage negotiations earlier; that should have happened. Instead, they postponed the negotiations and continued their attacks. Now, if they are negotiating for hostages, it's not just Hamas saying, Okay, we will release the hostages if you end the war. They are also saying, You need to release our hostages too. The question is how much of this will be accepted. Additionally, Hamas's willingness to make concessions for a hostage exchange pertains to the Palestinian side, while Hezbollah seems to be able to continue a sort of war without officially declaring it. Hezbollah and Hamas are operating in a way that is somewhat independent of the situation in Gaza with Israel.

They said they are willing to discuss a ceasefire, but they also stated that they would not link it to anything else. What that means is that Hezbollah may be in a very urgent situation; a ceasefire is needed. They are facing a lot of aerial bombardment, and Hezbollah, like Hamas, can only suffer at the hands of Israel because they are not a state organization but a military group. Therefore, they cannot possibly have an air force. It is obvious that they cannot overcome Israel's overwhelming supply capabilities. For Hezbollah, a ceasefire would currently be beneficial, while Israel seems to be weighing its options: either to negotiate or to push further. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed a very strong desire for Hezbollah to be eliminated, so a ceasefire with Hezbollah does not seem likely to be easy. Now, many...

People are worried about the possibility of a fifth Middle Eastern conflict or even the potential for a third world war, which has been discussed a lot on YouTube. Has the likelihood of these events decreased compared to before, or has the current situation increased that likelihood? Overall, the current situation seems to indicate that the pressure has eased. There has been a reduction in pressure. This is how we have to interpret it. Both sides have already engaged in attacks, including Iran. However, Iran also claims it will attack again, but it’s unclear whether this will actually happen or when it might occur. This could potentially be a tactic for negotiating a ceasefire. In fact, Iran no longer has the capacity to escalate the conflict. Both Iran and the United States do not want an escalation, but Israel does. Israel wants to strike the Iranian forces this time around. Just think about it: Hamas.

If Iran ordered or planned the attack, they would certainly jump in with both feet. However, the truth is that Hamas's attack was surprising to both Iran and Hezbollah. This is something that is also discussed on the Israeli side, as they claim that this was a solo effort by Hamas. Hamas acted independently. So, it's understandable that Hezbollah and Iran would be angry. Even if they planned and coordinated the attack step by step, it would still be difficult to defeat an opponent like Israel. If they launch an attack without any communication or consideration for us, how can we respond? From Hamas's perspective, it seems they thought, That's your problem; if we strike and get hit, you'll come to help us. However, Israel, as mentioned earlier, reportedly launched an attack with 100 fighter jets, which may or may not be true, but regardless, it’s a serious situation for them.

There is a probability that it can be propagated advantageously, but is there really a reason to express that Hamas is solely responsible for this? No, they have been doing this for a while, not just recently. This is something I have heard directly. This could also be grouped as just one move. From Israel's perspective, initially, everyone thought the same way. At first, everyone thought that Hamas couldn't defeat Israel; it was too obvious. So why are they doing such reckless things? Everyone assumed that there must be some backing behind them. However, it has now become clear that this is not the case, as Israel itself is stating that this is not true. If that’s the case, then Iran and, in fact, Hezbollah do not want to escalate the war further.

이스라엘에 큰 소리 친 이란이, 전쟁을 끝내고 싶은 진짜 이유 (박현도 교수)

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이란과 이스라엘 간의 지속적인 긴장 관계

이란은 휴전을 위한 협상 전술로 다시 공격하겠다고 위협하고 있으며, 이란과 미국 모두 상황의 확대를 피하고자 합니다.

이 분쟁은 일련의 보복 공격으로 이어졌고 이스라엘은 이란의 군사 시설을 성공적으로 표적으로 삼았다고 주장하고 있습니다.

그러나 이란은 최소한의 피해만 입었고 이스라엘의 공격 대부분을 요격했다고 주장하고 있어 공습의 효과에 대한 의견이 분분합니다.

최근 이란에서 발생한 공격의 복잡한 역학 관계

은퇴한 MI6 요원 알렉스 크루는 최근 이란에서 발생한 공격과 관련된 귀중한 정보와 인맥을 보유하고 있습니다.

이스라엘의 첫 번째 공격은 이란의 방공 시스템을 파괴하는 것이 목표였지만 적의 레이더에 탐지되어 작전은 실패로 돌아갔습니다.

이후 70~100km 거리에서 발사된 미사일은 정확하지 않아 후퇴했고, 이란과 아제르바이잔의 긴밀한 관계로 인해 의혹이 제기되고 양국 간의 논의가 촉발되었습니다.

논란이 되고 있는 군사 행동과 그 의미

국방부가 공개한 동영상에 오해의 소지가 있는 폭발 사진이 게재되면서 이스라엘의 언론 전술에 대한 의문이 제기되었습니다.

이스라엘은 초기 공격을 위해 전투기 100대를 출격시켰으나 탐지되어 회항해야 했습니다.

이란은 100km 떨어진 곳에서 공격해 군인 4명과 민간인 1명이 사망했다고 주장하고 있으며, 러시아의 S-400과 Su-35의 잠재적 영향이 상황을 더욱 복잡하게 만들고 있습니다.

이란의 잠재적 대응과 글로벌 역학 관계

이란의 잠재적 공격 경고로 요르단, 이라크, 아제르바이잔을 중심으로 이란의 향후 행동에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

여러 친이란 단체가 동시다발적인 공격을 위해 협력하고 있어 긴장이 고조되고 있습니다.

다가오는 미국 대통령 선거에서 두 후보 모두 전쟁을 종식시키겠다는 의지를 표명하면서 이란-이스라엘 분쟁이 일시적으로 중단될 수 있습니다.

이란과 중동 긴장에 대한 러시아의 지원

러시아는 이란에서 수호이 35 및 30 전투기 생산을 허가하여 양국 관계를 더욱 심화시킬 것입니다.

이란의 구형 전투기는 교체될 예정이지만, 미국산 전투기만큼 최신식 전투기는 아닐 것입니다.

중동 정세는 이스라엘과 이란이 복잡한 역학 관계에 얽혀 있어 긴장된 상황이며, 이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 휴전 가능성은 희박해 보입니다.

다섯 번째 중동 분쟁에 대한 우려

다섯 번째 중동 분쟁이나 제3차 세계 대전에 대한 우려가 있지만 현재 상황은 압력이 줄어들고 있는 것으로 보입니다.

이란과 미국 모두 확전을 원하지 않는 반면 이스라엘은 이란군을 공격하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

하마스의 최근 공격은 이란과 헤즈볼라 모두에게 놀라움을 안겨주며 긴장을 고조시켰지만, 하마스가 독자적으로 행동한 것이 분명해졌습니다.